Market Performance - The A-share market saw significant gains in the oil and natural gas sector, with notable stocks such as Keli Co. rising by 26%, Tongyuan Petroleum hitting the daily limit, and potential gains in other companies like Huaneng Gas and Beiken Energy [1] - Gold-related stocks also performed well, with Cuihua Jewelry reaching the daily limit and West Gold nearing the limit, alongside other companies showing gains [1] ETF Performance - Major ETFs in the oil and gas sector experienced substantial increases, with the Jiashi Fund's S&P Oil & Gas ETF rising by 7.68% and the Fuguo Fund's version increasing by 7.45% [3] - Other ETFs, including the Energy Chemical ETF and Oil & Gas Resource ETF, also showed positive performance, indicating strong investor interest in these sectors [3] Geopolitical Impact - The geopolitical situation escalated with Israel's attacks on Iran, leading to a significant rise in international oil prices, with Brent crude increasing over 9% to $75.76 per barrel, marking a new high since April [5] - Gold prices also surged, with spot gold rising by 1.5% to over $3430 per ounce, the highest since May [5] Oil and Gold Market Dynamics - The Israeli military's actions against Iran are expected to sustain demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, while rising geopolitical tensions are likely to keep oil prices strong [7] - The recent increase in oil prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical risks and concerns over oil production safety in the Middle East [7] ETF Composition and Characteristics - The S&P Oil & Gas ETF tracks the S&P Oil & Gas Upstream Stocks Total Return Index, which includes a diverse range of companies primarily focused on upstream oil and gas development [9][11] - The index consists of 53 components, employing an equal-weighted methodology that favors smaller companies, thus presenting a higher risk-reward profile compared to market-cap weighted indices [11]

研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 13 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美国 5 月份通胀增速低于市场预期提振美联储降息预期并打压美元指数，且 消息称以色列正积极准备攻击伊朗而美国也撤回部分驻中东外交军事人员，抗通 胀需求与避险需求推动伦敦黄金上涨至 3350 美元/盎司上方；6 月上旬投机资金 大举做多涨幅显著落后于黄金的白银，伦敦白银一度涨至 36.9 美元/盎司而年内 银价涨幅也超越金价，我们判断纯粹资金推动的银价飙升行情难以持续，建议投 资者关注白银动能衰减后的多黄金空白银套利策略。特朗普 2.0 新政推动 ...

金十数据6月12日讯，分析师David Morrison表示，受地缘政治紧张局势升温和美元走软影响，黄金期货 上涨。随着特朗普总统重新提起普遍的关税威胁和美伊核谈判的斗争，黄金受益于避险需求。与此同 时，在消费者价格指数低于预期之后，美元再次面临抛售压力。在此之前，关税的不确定性进一步加 剧，投资者不愿持有美国国债，这有利于黄金的避险吸引力。 美元走弱，避险需求增加，黄金期货上涨， ...

今日周四（6月12日）欧盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3499.73美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报 3370.86美元/盎司，上涨0.47%，最高触及3377.50美元/盎司，最低下探3351.38美元/盎司，目前来看， 现货黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 市场共识是报告期内下降0.1%。 与此同时，服务业指数（4月）为0.6%3个月/3月，而3月为0.7%。 来自英国的其他数据显示，4月份工业和制造业生产月度分别下降0.6%和0.9%。这两个数据均低于市场 预期。 【要闻速递】 英国国家统计局（ONS）周四发布的最新数据显示，英国经济在4月份收缩，国内生产总值（GDP）下 降0.3%，而3月份增长了0.2%。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 日线当前macd死叉缩量粘合放平于零轴，灵动指标sto勾头向上修复代表价格的震荡偏强。而目前支撑 在均线MA5和MA10附近对应3344-3337一线，其次是中轨3319-3309一线。根据前期的日线看目前上方 阻力在3382-88一线。 4小时指标macd金叉放量运行，灵动指标sto勾头向上修复，代表目前的震荡偏强走势。而4小时目前属 于涨势，所以下方均线支撑暂时不用考虑，那么防守就 ...

周二，金融市场情绪分化，美国通胀数据略低于预期之际，中东地区地缘政治风险升温，令投资者信心 受挫。 通胀回落与美伊紧张局势升级的交织，导致避险资金流、能源市场与债券收益率等多资产类别出现"拉 锯战"。 美国5月CPI略显温和 美国5月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.4%，略高于4月的2.3%，符合市场预期。核心CPI同比维持 在2.8%，月率增长仅为0.1%，均低于市场预期。 尽管通胀仍处于相对高位，但持续的通缩趋势被市场解读为积极信号——尤其是此前担忧关税冲击的影 响并未如预期严重显现。 "当前整体和核心通胀维持稳定，即便在关税背景下，也为美联储提供了更多操作空间，并可能为年内 降息打开大门。"——Ultima Markets 高级分析师 Shawn 表示。 CME FedWatch显示9月FOMC会议降息概率达到61.6%，较一个月前的41%大幅上升。 美伊紧张局势再起 另一方面，美国与伊朗的紧张关系于周三加剧。美国已下令部分撤离驻伊拉克、巴林和科威特大使馆人 员，理由是来自伊朗支持势力的安全威胁上升。 技术面分析：布伦特原油（UKOUSD） 布伦特原油强势突破两个月高点，重返69美元上方，逼近70美 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The lower-than-expected inflation data in the US in May boosted the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, causing the gold price to break through 3360 in the short term. The market now expects the Fed to cut interest rates by a total of 77 bps in the next year and 48 bps by December [2]. - Geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions continue to support the safe-haven demand for gold. Geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine conflict, as well as the "Liberation Day" tariff issue and Sino-US trade negotiations, have pushed some safe-haven funds into gold [2]. - The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [32, 35] [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - In May, the US CPI annual rate was 2.4% (expected 2.5%, previous value 2.3%); the monthly rate was 0.1% (expected 0.2%, previous value 0.2%). The core CPI annual rate was 2.8% (expected 2.9%, previous value 2.8%); the monthly rate was 0.1% (expected 0.3%, previous value 0.2%) [1]. - European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that coercive trade policies cannot solve financial imbalances, and all parties need to weigh policy adjustments to resolve tensions [1]. - Sino-US economic and trade consultations in London reached a trade framework agreement, aiming to resolve trade disputes over rare earths and magnets [1][2]. Price Logic - The lower-than-expected inflation data in the US in May increased the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, which was the main reason for the short - term rise in the gold price [2]. - Geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions continued to support the safe - haven demand for gold, with some safe - haven funds flowing into gold on Wednesday [2]. Outlook - The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [32, 35] [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the favorable conditions for gold prices due to lower-than-expected US CPI data, potential Fed rate cuts, and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][5] - The recent fluctuations in gold prices show a resistance level at 3360, with potential support around 3358 and further down at 3345, indicating a volatile trading environment [2][4] - The domestic gold market has seen significant price movements, with Shanghai gold reaching a high of 789 and expectations for further increases, suggesting a bullish outlook for gold investments [5] Group 2 - The operational strategy suggests entering long positions when gold prices drop to the 3340-3340 USD range, with a stop-loss set below 3320 USD and a target of 3370-3380 USD [4] - For short positions, a recommendation is made to enter at 3370 USD with a stop-loss above 3390 USD and a target of 3340 USD, indicating a tactical approach to trading [4] - The articles emphasize the importance of monitoring upcoming economic data, such as the PPI, and Fed policy decisions, as well as ongoing geopolitical developments, to inform trading strategies [1][2]

Group 1 - The market sentiment is cautious ahead of the important US inflation data, with traders delaying large-scale positions for more guidance [2] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) will directly influence the Federal Reserve's future policy path, impacting the US dollar and gold prices [2] - Gold's performance is highly dependent on interest rate expectations and dollar fluctuations, with safe-haven demand providing solid support for gold prices [2] Group 2 - Technically, gold remains in a bullish short-term trend, rebounding from the vicinity of the 200-period simple moving average [3] - A breakout above the $3350 resistance zone would confirm further upward momentum, targeting the $3380 area and potentially reaching the $3400 round number [3] - Conversely, if gold falls below the $3320 short-term support, a bearish pattern may establish, with potential declines to the $3245 monthly low or even down to the $3200 area for new support [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) has shown a decline of 0.47% as of June 10, 2025, with a latest price of 7.66 yuan and a trading volume of 15.0177 million yuan. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, indicating a positive outlook for gold prices driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [1]. Group 1: Gold Reserves and Market Trends - As of the end of May, China's official gold reserves stood at 7.383 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 tons), reflecting an increase of 60,000 ounces (about 1.86 tons) month-on-month [1]. - Zhejiang Securities anticipates further increases in gold reserves, emphasizing the positive impact of central bank purchases on gold prices in the medium to long term [1]. - Recent reports from Caixin Securities highlight the fragility of the economic recovery in the U.S., with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.9 and ADP employment growth falling short of expectations, which may influence gold demand as a safe haven [1]. Group 2: Performance Metrics of Shanghai Gold ETF - As of June 9, 2025, the Shanghai Gold ETF has seen a 37.01% increase in net value over the past year, ranking in the top 2 among comparable funds [2]. - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 10.00% since inception, with the longest streak of monthly gains being 6 months and an average monthly return of 3.04% [2]. - The historical probability of profit over a 3-year holding period for the ETF stands at 100% [2]. Group 3: Risk and Fee Structure - The Shanghai Gold ETF has a Sharpe ratio of 2.51 as of June 6, 2025, ranking in the top 2 out of 7 comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [3]. - The ETF has shown a relative drawdown of 0.17% year-to-date compared to its benchmark, suggesting lower risk in terms of drawdown among comparable funds [3]. - The management fee for the Shanghai Gold ETF is 0.25%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, both of which are relatively low compared to similar funds [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-6-10 地缘⻛险⽀撑⾦价 尽管美联储降息预期降温短期施压金价，但地缘政治风险及避险需求 支撑金价。 重点资讯： 1）据新华社，当地时间6月9日，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总 理何立峰与美方在英国伦敦开始举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。 2）白宫经济顾问哈西特(Kevin Hassett)周一表示，美国三位最高贸 易谈判代表正寻求在伦敦握手言和，以达成中美同意的稀土协议。 3）民主党人和共和党人周日针锋相对。此前美国总统特朗普向洛杉 矶部署国民警卫队以应对当地大规模抗议活动。 价格逻辑： 投资者在中贸易谈判前保持谨慎，叠加持续的地缘政治风险，支撑避 险黄金。然而，市场对美联储今年大幅降息的预期降温，可能限制无 息黄金的上行空间。 周五公布的5月非农就业报告显示，新增就业13.9万人（预期13万， 前值修正为14.7万），失业率维持4.2%（符合预期），平均时薪增速 持平于3.9%（好于预期的3.7%）。数据公布后，市场对美联储年内降 息的押注减少，推动美债收益率走高，短期压制金价。但美元未能延 续非农后的涨势，主因特朗普持 ...