Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a significant structural market trend for resource products in 2025, with precious metals and industrial metals like copper leading the charge, driven by heightened global uncertainty and various risk factors [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global supply chain is shifting from "efficiency first" to "security first" due to intensified great power competition, making key resources like metals and energy strategic assets for countries [1]. - Geographical restructuring of industrial division is driven by escalating trade frictions, leading to new manufacturing and service clusters in emerging markets, which will increase demand for infrastructure and physical assets [1]. - The U.S. faces rising debt pressure, questioning the stability of its monetary credit system, while "de-dollarization" is becoming a long-term global trend, prompting investors to diversify their asset portfolios [2]. Group 2: Resource Nationalism and Investment Opportunities - Resource nationalism is on the rise as countries seek to protect their interests through regulatory measures, increasing uncertainty in global resource supply [2]. - China's mining industry is positioned to benefit from global uncertainties, showcasing resilience and innovation in resource exploration and utilization [2][3]. - Chinese mining enterprises are deepening their overseas presence, demonstrating strong decision-making and operational management capabilities in complex environments [3]. Group 3: Investment Focus Areas - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are expected to benefit from an expanding global supply-demand gap, with a focus on leading companies with quality copper resources [4]. - The lithium battery sector is anticipated to rebound post-2025, while rare earths will benefit from high demand in the electric vehicle and wind power industries [4]. - Precious metals like gold and silver are highlighted for their long-term value, with gold serving as a core asset for risk diversification and silver having both financial and industrial attributes [5]. - Attention is drawn to strategic minor metals such as tungsten and tantalum, which may benefit from national policies aimed at resource development [5]. Group 4: Broader Resource Sector Tracking - The company will continue to monitor sectors like oil, gas, coal, agriculture, and chemicals for potential value re-evaluation opportunities [5]. - There is an emphasis on identifying "hidden champions" in mining services, machinery, environmental protection, and logistics markets to leverage investment advantages [5].

随着金价走高，多家基金调整申赎规则：易方达1月16日起暂停申购，19日恢复，最小申赎单位从30万 份降至10万份，实物申赎仅保留流动性更优的Au99.99合约;华安、博时等此前已调整。业内称，此举提 升公平性、灵活性，降低参与门槛。 摘要今日周四(1月15日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价为1027.57元/克，较前一交易日下跌9.38元，跌幅 0.90%，日内呈现高开低走走势。当日开盘价报1036.45元/克，盘中最高触及1037.83元/克，最低下探至 1026.46元/克。 今日周四(1月15日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价为1027.57元/克，较前一交易日下跌9.38元，跌幅 0.90%，日内呈现高开低走走势。当日开盘价报1036.45元/克，盘中最高触及1037.83元/克，最低下探至 1026.46元/克。 【要闻速递】 伴随金价迭创新高，黄金ETF迎来资金热捧，规模迅速扩张。数据显示，截至1月14日，黄金ETF近一 年净流入约430亿元，流通规模突破千亿元，成为国内首只千亿黄金ETF;博时、易方达、国泰等黄金 ETF规模分别达439.76亿、387.10亿、325.84亿元，全市场14只产品总规模达 ...

在国际金价突破4600美元/盎司之际，国内首只千亿黄金ETF诞生。 Wind数据显示，截至1月14日，华安黄金ETF的最新流通规模达到1007.62亿元，突破千亿元大关，成为国内首 只突破千亿的黄金ETF，同样也稳居亚洲最大规模黄金ETF之位。 展望后市，基金对黄金、白银等贵金属的走势仍然相对乐观，认为在美联储降息周期持续、海外不确定性加 剧、全球去美元化趋势下，金价上涨的逻辑依然存在，但短期波动风险需保持警惕，建议投资者逢低布局。 华安黄金ETF突破千亿 伴随着金价迭创新高，黄金ETF迎来了各路资金的热情申购，规模增长迅速。 国内黄金ETF产品的创新研发，最早可以追溯到2009年，上海证券交易所组织多家基金管理人对黄金ETF在国 内落地的可行性和投资运营的实现路径进行研究探索，创造性地通过"实物合约+现金"两种申购赎回模式保证 了产品流动性充沛及投资模式的多样性。其中，作为首批产品之一的华安黄金ETF于2013年7月18日成立，并 于7月29日正式上市交易。 华安基金表示，黄金ETF的诞生进一步推进了中国黄金市场发展与创新，丰富了普通大众投资者的投资品类， 实现了投资者对黄金投资的新途径，黄金ETF也成为藏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with gold and silver prices dropping sharply after reaching historical highs earlier in the year [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 15, 2026, gold prices fell below $4600, while silver dropped below $90 per ounce, with silver experiencing a decline of over 6% [1]. - Earlier in the month, gold had reached a record price of over $4640, and silver had briefly surpassed $93 per ounce, marking their strongest annual performance since 1979, with gold up approximately 65% and silver nearly 150% year-over-year [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The gold-silver ratio has fallen below 50 for the first time since March 2012, indicating that silver may no longer be considered cheap relative to gold [4]. - The recent surge in metal prices is attributed to concentrated buying in the Chinese market and rising geopolitical risks, which have heightened market demand for safe-haven assets like precious metals [4]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Short-term price movements in precious metals are influenced by geopolitical disturbances and political changes, with a high risk premium present [5]. - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains positive due to expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and uncertainties surrounding the U.S. midterm elections [5]. - The current global trade and financial environment, characterized by "de-globalization" and "de-dollarization," is seen as beneficial for gold's investment and hedging value [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant performance of gold and silver in 2025, with gold prices increasing by over 65% and silver prices rising by 150%. Investment banks are optimistic about gold potentially challenging $5,000 per ounce and silver reaching $100 per ounce in 2026, driven by four key themes in the precious metals market [1]. Group 1: Key Themes - **Theme 1: Trump Market** Trump's statements and policies directly impact the dollar's performance. If he reignites trade disputes that could harm the U.S. economy and weaken the dollar, it would create a favorable environment for gold and silver investments. The upcoming change in the Federal Reserve chairmanship in May 2026, appointed by Trump, could also lead to significant interest rate cuts, benefiting precious metal prices [2]. - **Theme 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts** The expectation of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is closely tied to inflation and employment data. If these indicators suggest economic weakness, the likelihood of rate cuts increases, prompting a shift of funds into gold and silver markets for risk aversion [3]. - **Theme 3: De-dollarization and Central Bank Gold Purchases** The ongoing global trend of de-dollarization, exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the U.S. debt exceeding $36 trillion, is leading central banks and financial institutions to increase their gold and silver holdings. Market concerns over U.S. fiscal discipline and potential dollar crises often precede price surges in precious metals. Additionally, the Chinese New Year is a peak time for gold purchases, warranting close attention [4]. - **Theme 4: Geopolitical Risks and Industrial Demand for Silver** Geopolitical risks significantly drive gold and silver prices, especially events involving U.S. intervention that raise concerns about fiscal deficits. Silver's industrial applications in technology sectors, such as chips and electric vehicles, also enhance its demand. Changes in China's rare earth policies could further influence silver prices in 2026 [5]. Group 2: Price Projections - The article suggests that if the aforementioned themes persist, the long-term projections for gold could reach $10,000 per ounce and for silver $300 per ounce, indicating a strong potential for price appreciation in the precious metals market [5].

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver futures prices have reached new historical highs due to escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran, alongside concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the depreciation of the US dollar [1][2][3] Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing unrest in Iran and threats from the Trump administration regarding military intervention have heightened geopolitical risks, driving investors towards gold as a safe haven [1][2] - Analysts from ANZ Bank suggest that geopolitical instability and concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence will continue to boost global demand for gold, with expectations for prices to exceed $5,000 per ounce in the latter half of the year [2][3] Group 2: Market Predictions - Citigroup has raised its bullish forecast for silver to $100 per ounce and for gold to $5,000 per ounce, citing unprecedented high price trends and ongoing geopolitical tensions [3][6] - HSBC predicts that gold prices could surpass $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, driven by increasing geopolitical risks and rising fiscal deficits [6][7] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US federal deficit is projected to reach $2.05 trillion in the 2026 fiscal year, approximately 6.5% of GDP, which is expected to erode the credibility of fiat currencies and stimulate demand for gold [7][8] - Emerging market central banks are accelerating the process of "de-dollarization," leading to a stronger demand for gold as a reserve asset [8][9] Group 4: Investment Trends - The past year has seen gold and silver prices significantly outperforming other asset classes, with gold futures rising approximately 70% and silver nearly quadrupling in value [3][5] - Analysts emphasize that even a small shift of private investment from US Treasury bonds to gold could lead to substantial price increases, reinforcing the bullish outlook for gold prices [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver futures prices have reached new historical highs due to escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran, alongside concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the depreciation of the US dollar [1][2][3]. Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing unrest in Iran and threats from the Trump administration regarding military intervention have heightened geopolitical risks, driving investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. - Analysts from ANZ Bank suggest that geopolitical instability and concerns over monetary policy will continue to boost global demand for gold, with expectations for prices to exceed $5,000 per ounce in the latter half of the year [2][3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - The Federal Reserve's independence is facing unprecedented political pressure, with Chairman Jerome Powell stating that threats of criminal charges are aimed at undermining the Fed's ability to set interest rates based on economic data rather than political preferences [2][3]. - Concerns over the Fed's independence have led to increased demand for gold, as investors seek to diversify their reserves amid uncertainty [3][7]. Group 3: Market Predictions - Citigroup has raised its price forecasts for gold and silver, predicting gold could reach $5,000 per ounce and silver could rise to $100 per ounce within three months due to ongoing geopolitical risks and supply shortages [3][6]. - HSBC's analysis indicates that the combination of geopolitical risks and rising fiscal deficits is likely to support gold prices, with expectations for prices to surpass $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026 [6][7]. Group 4: Demand Dynamics - Emerging market central banks are accelerating their gold purchases as part of a "de-dollarization" trend, indicating a significant shift in global reserve management from US Treasuries to gold [7][8]. - Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have projected that gold prices could reach approximately $4,900 to $5,055 per ounce by late 2026, driven by structural demand from central banks and potential shifts in private sector investments [8].

特朗普政府上任伊始，就以"美国优先"为口号，试图通过强化对外干预，保护美国的能源利益。在这一背景下，美国对委内瑞拉这个石油资源丰富的国家展 开了猛烈攻击，企图通过控制其石油产业，实现对全球市场的影响。 美国石油巨头们的沉默也反映出一种不安和怀疑。现阶段，全球油价波动和地缘政治的不确定性，使得投资委内瑞拉的风险陡然攀升，令人望而却步。特朗 普自以为的金山银山，其实不过是块"烫手山芋"，没有人愿意在这样的政治风暴中捡便宜。 中国在能源供应上的多元化已经为其提供了强有力的支持。虽然委内瑞拉的原油在中国进口中占据一定比例，但并非不可替代。中东、俄罗斯，以及非洲等 地区的石油资源，都可以成为中国的后盾。在面对美国的威胁时，中国能够迅速调整战略，以实现资源的灵活配置。 中国的能源进口途径早已涵盖多个国家和地区，导致其并不依赖于某一特定供应国。更重要的是，中国市场的巨大需求，使得其他国家愿意主动寻求与中国 的合作。阿根廷的牛肉、巴西的农产品，以及秘鲁和智利的矿产，无不显示出中国在全球供应链中的重要地位。 特朗普的策略看似是要通过控制资源来抑制中国的发展，但实际上却成了他的又一战略败笔。无论是想用委内瑞拉的原油来威胁中国，还 ...

2026 年 1 月 15 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 碳酸锂： 17 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 18 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 20 | | 棕榈油： 21 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 22 | | 白糖： 23 | | 苹果： 24 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 25 | | 玉米&淀粉： 26 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 28 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约跌 0.04%报 111.270 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.08%报 107.930 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.04%报 105.655 元，2 年 期主力合约持平于 102.334 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，1 月 14 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 2408 亿 元 7 ...

这一情形催生二战后美国决策者反思，因为这时的美元已经是世界货币，说白了美元不再是单纯的美国货币，而是成为了全球储备资产！那么，维系美联储 的独立性，才能保证美元的独立性！也只有美国的货币政策摆脱了政治干预，其才能维护全球金融稳定，成为全球央行，这才能让各国央行实时调整货币政 策应对美元周期，各国财政也能也能依据美元进行宏观调控，否则大家就都变成了美国政府的提款机！ 所以，当全球央行在1月看见美国政府已经完全不顾任何体面，司法部试图通过刑事调查达到施压降息目标，逼迫现任美联储主席鲍威尔离职时，大家才真 的着急了起来！而我们也就看到了这次历史性的全球主要央行行长联合声明！ 毕竟，作为全球最大经济体的央行，美联储的货币政策具有极强的溢出效应，美元作为全球主要储备货币，其汇率、利率走势直接影响全球资本流动、贸易 结算和资产定价。一旦美联储失去独立性，沦为短期政治目标的附庸，全球金融市场将陷入灾难性混乱。 全世界的央行，实际上还是有不少和财政部一样，深受政府调控管理影响的！但美联储是个必须从里到外必须相对的例外，1913年《联邦储备法》开始，到 1951年的《财政部-美联储协议》从法律层面明确了美联储的货币政策制定权， ...