5月27日，美国欧盟关税谈判缓和和美股大幅反弹影响，避险需求降温，金价延续走低，盘中一度跌至 3283美元，尾盘小幅拉升，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货跌1.27%报3299.70美元/盎司；截至亚市收盘， 黄金ETF华夏(518850)跌0.83%，近5日高位震荡，获资金净申购9671万元，黄金股ETF(159562)跌 2.04%，近5日获资金净申购5781万元。 数据层面，美国3月FHFA房价指数环比降0.1%，预期升0.1%，前值从升0.1%修正为持平。美国3月 S&P/CS20座大城市未季调房价指数同比升4.1%，预期升4.5%，前值升4.5%。国信期货分析认为，美欧 贸易博弈扰动与美俄制裁升温交织，支撑贵金属避险功能；美国房价走弱强化滞胀交易，佛州立法确认 金银货币地位提振实物需求，但特朗普集团比特币储备计划或阶段性分流资金。 展望后市，黄金或维持震荡格局，若后续通胀数据稳固，美联储宽松节奏放缓或抑制上行空间，但地缘 与政策风险溢价仍支撑金价。 消息面上，特朗普在社交媒体发文称，对欧盟加快贸易谈判进程感到鼓舞。知情人士此前透露，欧盟正 寻求加快与美国的贸易谈判，重点放在关键的行业以及关税和非关税壁垒 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: May 27, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Trump postponed the 50% tariff on the EU until July 9, weakening the safe - haven demand. LME was closed for a holiday, and SHFE zinc opened high and closed low. The main contract 2507 closed at 22,185 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan or 0.52%. The supply of zinc is expected to be loose, and the demand is in the off - peak season. The tariff policy relaxation has limited boost to the downstream, and the zinc price fluctuates at a low level in the short term [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For SHFE zinc 2506, it opened at 22,360 yuan/ton, closed at 22,405 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,495 yuan/ton, a low of 22,305 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan or 0.38%, and the position decreased by 6,837 to 44,433 lots. For SHFE zinc 2507, it opened at 22,155 yuan/ton, closed at 22,185 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,300 yuan/ton, a low of 22,085 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan or 0.52%, and the position increased by 4,451 to 118,520 lots. For SHFE zinc 2508, it opened at 22,000 yuan/ton, closed at 22,055 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,160 yuan/ton, a low of 21,970 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan or 0.52%, and the position increased by 1,942 to 41,156 lots [7] - **Market Analysis**: The TC this week was flat compared with last week. The domestic zinc mine output will increase seasonally from May to June, and the processing fee has room to rise. The imported zinc ore inventory is over 350,000 tons. The demand is in the off - peak season, and the tariff policy relaxation has limited boost to the downstream. The spot premiums in Tianjin and Guangdong increased, while that in Shanghai remained stable, and the spot trading was poor [7] 2. Industry News - **0 Zinc in Mainstream Markets on May 26, 2025**: In the mainstream market, the price of 0 zinc was 22,590 - 22,735 yuan/ton, and Shuangyan was 22,790 - 22,935 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 40 - 60 yuan/ton to the average price. In the second trading session, the ordinary domestic brand quoted a premium of 250 - 260 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, SMC quoted a premium of 230 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, and Shuangyan quoted a premium of 450 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract [8] - **Zinc in Ningbo Market**: The price of mainstream 0 zinc brands was about 22,620 - 22,755 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo quoted a premium of 265 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract and a premium of 70 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. In the first period, Qilin quoted a premium of 270 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, and Hualian quoted a delivered premium of 330 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract. In the second period, the traders' quotes remained the same as the previous period [8] - **Zinc in Tianjin Market**: The price of 0 zinc ingots was 22,540 - 22,730 yuan/ton, and Zijin was 22,600 - 22,760 yuan/ton. 0 zinc generally quoted a premium of 200 - 250 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, and Zijin quoted a premium of 260 - 280 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract. By the noon close, Xinzi quoted a premium of 200 - 230 yuan/ton to the 06 contract, Hongye quoted 250 yuan/ton to the 06 contract, and Zijin quoted a premium of 260 - 280 yuan/ton to the 06 contract [8] - **Zinc in Guangdong Market**: The price of mainstream 0 zinc was 22,515 - 22,730 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands quoted a premium of 370 yuan/ton to the 2507 contract and a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. In the first period, the holders quoted a premium of 390 - 400 yuan/ton for Qilin, Mengzi, and Lanxing. In the second period, Qilin, Mengzi, and Danxia quoted a premium of 400 - 440 yuan/ton to the net price [9] 3. Data Overview - **Graphs**: The report includes graphs such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventory [12][13]

作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 2025.05. 27 本文字数：1763，阅读时长大约3分钟 今年以来，全球贸易形势变化成为了黄金上涨的重要推手。在中美日内瓦商贸谈判后，国际金价一度 从历史高位回撤近6%，然而美国总统特朗普在关税问题上反复和随后美国多边贸易谈判缺乏实质性 进展使得市场焦虑情绪卷土重来。花旗在最新报告中将三个月金价目标位再次调回至3500美元，不 过长期前景面临不利因素挑战。与此同时，不少机构将美国财政危局、美元弱势和实物需求旺盛视为 短中期利多因素。 花旗：短期看好长期谨慎 在上周日发布的一份研究报告中，花旗预测未来三个月内黄金交易目标为3500美元，高于5月12日 设定的3300美元。 最新修正源于特朗普上周再次发出威胁，要从6月1日起对欧盟征收50%的关税。不过随后他改变了 想法，据央视新闻报道，当地时间25日，特朗普表示，欧盟请求将关税谈判期限延长至7月9日，他 已同意这一请求。特朗普称，本次与欧盟就关税问题的谈话"非常愉快"。 尽管上修了目标价，花旗分析师对黄金长期前景持谨慎态度，并列举了两个可能的不利因素：其一， 随着美国中期选举临近和美联储降息，经济增长和相关股票风险可能会解除。其 ...

现在针对尾盘做一个大概的展望，现在金价自3336这里反弹再度来到压制线附近，如果没有什么大的消息面刺激，那么尾盘大概还有一波下行，因为会受收 尾多单抛盘影响去试探3336的位置。如果金价收盘于3336之下，那么自高位3500到3440的趋势线压制还存在，下周主要关注3300到3360区间的收敛区间；反 之金价站稳3336的位置，那么下周的操作思路还是偏于看涨为主，3360（趋势线随时间的推移会降低点位）这个趋势线压制或许会失效。下周的具体操作思 路我会在周评中再做阐述的，大家继续关注即可。 没有不成功的投资，只有不成功的操作，秦氏金升浸染金融行业十余载，有丰富的实战操盘经验和独特的交易理念，我们拥有全球稳健的交易系统在这里， 对黄金、原油、等投资领域研究多年，具有扎实的理论基础和实战经验，擅长技术面消息面结合式操作，注重资金管理和风险控制，操作风格稳健果断，以 随和负责的性格与犀利果断的操作而被广大投资朋友认可。分析文章只是对市场未来可能的描述，只是观点的表达，不作为投资决策依据，投资有风险，交 易务必注意合理的仓位配置、资金管理和风险控制，无风控不交易，不要让交易失控！ 周五（5月23日），受美元走软和市场 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the impact of President Trump's decision to delay tariffs on the EU, which has led to a decrease in safe-haven demand for silver, resulting in a slight decline in silver prices [1][2] - The latest price of paper silver is reported at 7.712 yuan per gram, reflecting a decrease of 0.12% [1] - Trump's announcement to extend the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on the EU until July 9 was made after a positive conversation with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen [2] Group 2 - The auction of 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds faced weak demand, with a bid yield of 5.047%, significantly higher than market expectations and the average of the last six auctions [3] - The disappointing auction results have raised concerns about the weakening demand for long-term U.S. Treasuries, with the yield on 20-year bonds rising to 5.127% following the auction [3] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing debate over tax reform proposals in Congress is amplifying fears regarding U.S. asset demand and the potential increase in national debt by $3 trillion to $5 trillion due to Trump's tax reform plan [3] Group 3 - Paper silver has shown a strong rebound, moving back above the 5-week moving average, indicating a resurgence of bullish momentum [4] - Short-term forecasts suggest that paper silver prices may continue to strengthen, with resistance levels identified at 7.75-7.80 yuan per gram and support levels at 7.50-7.60 yuan per gram [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the price trends, supply - demand relationships, and investment strategies of various precious metals and non - ferrous metals. It takes into account factors such as interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, and geopolitical situations. Overall, different metals have different outlooks, with some being cautiously bullish and others being neutral or cautiously bearish [36][38][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1内外价差结构及比价 - **内盘价差结构**: Presented the SHFE price difference structures of gold, silver, aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, stainless steel, and nickel from May 19 to May 23, 2025 [4][7] - **外盘价差结构**: Showed the price difference structures of LME copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, nickel, and the premiums of Comex gold, silver, and copper over London and LME counterparts, covering May 19 - May 23, 2025 [9][12] - **比价**: Included various ratios such as domestic and international copper, lead, aluminum, zinc, nickel, gold, and silver ratios, as well as copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel ratios excluding exchange rates from 2021 - 2025 [19][23][26] 3.2各品种观点 - **贵金属**: In the week of May 23, factors like rising U.S. Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and geopolitical tensions influenced the market. Gold and silver are cautiously bullish, with recommended buying ranges of 770 - 775 yuan/gram for gold and 7,950 - 8,000 yuan/kilogram for silver [36] - **铜**: With tight mine supply and low TC prices, copper is expected to maintain an upward - biased trend. It is recommended to buy on dips in the range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [38] - **铅**: Currently in the consumption off - season with weak demand, it is recommended to sell on rallies in the range of 16,920 - 16,950 yuan/ton [39] - **铝**: The supply is stable with a slight increase, while consumption is showing a downward trend. The sustainability of consumption is in question, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [41] - **氧化铝**: Supply is expected to increase, and the price of bauxite has support. The market is expected to remain in a state of supply surplus [42] - **锌**: The supply of zinc ore is stable, and the processing fees are expected to rise. Consumption is relatively strong, but there are risks of marginal decline. The market is neutral [44][45][46] - **镍**: The supply is expected to increase slightly, and consumption is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - to - long term [48] - **不锈钢**: Supply is abundant, and consumption is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - to - long term [50] - **硅**: The supply may decrease slightly, and demand is weak. If the southwest silicon furnaces operate normally, inventory is expected to accumulate in the third quarter [52][53] - **多晶硅**: Consumption is showing signs of weakness, and supply is expected to jointly reduce production but is difficult to achieve in the short term. The market is expected to oscillate widely [55][56] - **锂**: Supply may decrease, and consumption is stable. The inventory has increased slightly. The price has fallen to the 60,000 - yuan mark, and it is recommended to sell on rallies if there is a rebound [58] 3.3相关数据跟踪 - **贵金属 data**: Tracked U.S. and European bond yields, inflation expectations, TIPS yields, gold and silver ETF holdings, and CFTC positions from 2021 - 2025 [61][62][65] - **铜 data**: Tracked TC prices, refined - scrap spreads, import profits and losses, CFTC positions, domestic and LME inventories, and downstream sector indices from 2021 - 2025 [74][75][78] - **铝 data**: Tracked seasonal social inventories, LME inventories, cost - profit, and import profits and losses from 2021 - 2025 [80][84][88] - **氧化铝 data**: Tracked prices, total inventories, import profits and losses, and production costs and profits from 2022 - 2025 [95][96][99] - **锌 data**: Tracked price differences, inventories, processing fees, production profits, and import profits and losses from 2020 - 2025 [103][109][113] - **镍 and stainless steel data**: Tracked prices, inventories, premiums, import profits and losses, and profit margins from 2017 - 2025 [124][125][132] - **工业硅 data**: Tracked prices, production costs, and social inventories from 2022 - 2024 [147][148][152] - **多晶硅 data**: Tracked prices, inventories, and supply - demand balances from 2023 - 2025 [155][156] - **碳酸锂 data**: Tracked prices, inventories, and production from 2021 - 2025 [158][159][161]

Core Insights - The strong performance of the gold market is driven by a combination of global economic weakness and heightened risk aversion, with gold returns significantly outperforming U.S. stocks as of April 2025, marking the largest return gap in two years [1][3] - The current market environment is complex, with factors such as a weak dollar and geopolitical risks enhancing gold's appeal as a safe haven [1][4] Market Trends - Historical data shows that gold has consistently delivered excess returns during financial crises, high inflation, and geopolitical conflicts, with the current situation resembling the 2018 trade war but with more intricate driving factors [3][4] - The end of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle is expected to reduce the pressure on gold from real interest rates, potentially leading to a stronger rebound [4] - Institutional investors' gold holdings remain below historical peaks, indicating significant room for increased allocation [5] Supporting Factors - Geopolitical risks, such as conflicts in the Middle East and disruptions in energy supply chains, are likely to persist, maintaining gold's "insurance premium" [6] - Economic data volatility, particularly in U.S. employment and inflation, raises doubts about a "soft landing," thereby increasing demand for safe-haven assets [6] - Central banks in emerging markets continue to increase their gold reserves, providing a hidden support for gold prices [7] Investment Strategies - For new investors, a three-step approach is recommended: define investment goals, consider a 5%-15% allocation to gold as a portfolio stabilizer, and regularly review market conditions to avoid overconfidence [10][11] - Advanced strategies should combine event-driven opportunities with technical signals, particularly during the initial 48 hours of geopolitical conflicts [11] - Key technical levels include $3,300 as a psychological barrier, with a potential breakout leading to a target of $3,500, while a pullback to $3,200 could present a buying opportunity [12] Conclusion - The analysis from Macro Global Markets suggests that gold's investment logic in 2025 balances defensive and offensive strategies, emphasizing the importance of patience and systematic accumulation during market volatility [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The gold price rebounded strongly this week due to factors such as Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and fiscal concerns triggered by Trump's tax - cut bill. In the medium - to - long - term, the gold price is supported by safe - haven demand and a weaker US dollar, while the silver price follows the gold price but is relatively soft due to economic uncertainties, yet its demand remains resilient [7]. - For the outlook, the previously released CPI and PPI data suggest potential Fed rate cuts this year, but tariff policy uncertainties and the US debt problem may make the global de - dollarization trend persist. Gold investment demand is solid, and in the case of silver, although the price is affected by gold, the silver - gold ratio has moved up [7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Highlights - **Market Drivers**: The gold price rebounded due to factors like Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating, tensions in the Middle East, and fiscal concerns from Trump's tax - cut bill. The downgraded dollar credit rating and potential future debt increases provide long - term support for the gold price. However, the strong US labor market led to a short - term strengthening of the dollar, suppressing the gold price. The silver price followed the gold price but was relatively soft, and its demand remains resilient [7]. - **Market Outlook**: In the medium - to - long - term, the gold price is supported by safe - haven demand and a weaker dollar. The silver price is affected by the gold price, and the silver - gold ratio has moved up due to economic uncertainties [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movements**: As of May 23, 2025, COMEX gold was at $3324.7 per ounce, up 4.30% week - on - week; Shanghai gold futures were at 780.10 yuan per gram, up 3.76%. COMEX silver was at $33.38 per ounce, up 3.16%; Shanghai silver futures were at 8263 yuan per kilogram, up 1.95% [10]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of May 22, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 0.44% to 923.89 tons, while the SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 0.55% to 14132.66 tons [16]. - **COMEX Positions**: As of May 13, 2025, COMEX gold total positions decreased by 2.56% to 440842 contracts, and net positions decreased by 0.79% to 161209 contracts. COMEX silver total positions decreased by 1.43% to 138262 contracts, and net positions decreased by 3.04% to 47754 contracts [19]. - **Basis Changes**: As of May 23, 2025, the gold basis was - 4.38 yuan per gram, down 87.98% week - on - week, and the silver basis was - 19 yuan per kilogram, up 42.42% [23]. - **Inventory Changes**: COMEX and Shanghai gold and silver inventories showed mixed changes [24]. 3. Industry Situation - **Silver Industry**: As of the end of March 2025, China's silver import volume decreased. The year - on - year growth rate of downstream integrated circuit production slowed down, and the overall silver supply - demand was in a tight - balance state [34][36]. - **Gold Industry**: This week, the gold recycling price and jewelry price continued to rise, and the gold investment demand increased month - on - month [41][47]. 4. Macro and Options - **Macro Data**: This week, the US dollar index fluctuated downward, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased significantly. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility rebounded, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio decreased [50][55].

Group 1 - International gold prices opened strong, hovering around the $3,300 mark, supported by various moving averages and buying interest [1] - Gold prices softened on Thursday due to profit-taking after several days of gains, with the dollar continuing its upward trend, increasing by 0.3%, making gold more expensive for international buyers [3] - Despite concerns over U.S. fiscal risks and global bond market volatility supporting safe-haven demand, funds shifted towards the dollar [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Federal Reserve Board members are protected from being dismissed by the President, indicating strong resistance against any such efforts [2] - The court's decision highlighted the unique structure of the Federal Reserve as a quasi-private entity, following historical traditions of the first and second banks of the United States [2] - The ruling did not explicitly prohibit the President from dismissing Federal Reserve members, but it suggests that such actions would face significant legal challenges [2]

Group 1 - International gold prices have returned to the $3,300 per ounce mark, leading to increased attention on gold-related assets [1][3] - As of May 22, 13 gold ETFs continued to rise, with the highest increase being 0.23%, following a strong performance on May 21 where 20 gold ETFs surged over 3% [3] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to global geopolitical instability, a weak US dollar, and uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policies, which have heightened risk-averse sentiment among investors [3][4] Group 2 - Fund inflows into gold ETFs have seen a significant turnaround, with a net inflow of approximately 370 million yuan on May 21, and a notable shift from net outflows to inflows in the following days [3] - Multiple public fund institutions are optimistic about the long-term value of gold, suggesting that it serves as a hedge against equity risks and can provide capital gains [4] - Short-term volatility in gold prices is expected, but the underlying factors such as expanding global fiscal deficits and central bank buying are likely to support gold prices in the long run [4]