Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Copper prices rebounded after a significant drop, with attention on the ongoing US-China trade dynamics and recession expectations in the US. The weekly performance showed US copper up 3.75%, London copper up 2.97%, and Shanghai copper down 4.6%. The decline in copper prices led to increased downstream activity and accelerated inventory depletion, with copper rod operating rates at 74.76%, up 0.21 percentage points week-on-week. Social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased by 14.80% to 267,200 tons, while Shanghai copper inventory fell by 18.96% to 182,900 tons. Short-term price rebounds may be limited by US recession expectations, with key focus areas being US-China trade developments, US economic and inflation data, and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4] - Aluminum prices fell due to tariff impacts, with signs of weakening demand in the peak season and continued inventory depletion. The alumina market remains oversupplied, with prices dropping 5.12% to 2,870 RMB/ton. The operating capacity of alumina plants decreased by 1.91 million tons to 84.82 million tons/year. Electrolytic aluminum prices fell 3.72% to 19,675 RMB/ton, with profit margins down 15.54% to 3,650 RMB/ton. Overall, the supply side of electrolytic aluminum shows no increase in capacity, leading to a potential shortage this year, which could drive aluminum prices up significantly. Recommended stocks include Hongchuang Holdings, Yun Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., and China Aluminum [4] - Lithium prices continued to decline, with carbonate lithium down 3.11% to 71,600 RMB/ton. The supply side remains oversupplied, with inventory increasing by 1.3% to 131,000 tons. Demand growth is hindered by tariff impacts on downstream exports, with expectations for a narrowing of the oversupply throughout the year. Recommended stocks include Yahua Group, Zhongjin Lingnan, Yongxing Materials, and Ganfeng Lithium [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The US March CPI was lower than expected at 2.4%, with initial jobless claims matching expectations at 223,000 [8] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1. Copper - London copper rose 2.97%, while Shanghai copper fell 4.60%. Inventory levels decreased significantly, with Shanghai copper inventory down 18.96% [21][24] 2.2. Aluminum - London aluminum increased by 0.50%, while Shanghai aluminum decreased by 3.72%. The operating profit for aluminum companies fell by 15.54% [33] 2.3. Lead and Zinc - London lead prices fell 0.57%, while Shanghai lead prices decreased by 2.44%. London zinc prices rose 0.34%, but Shanghai zinc prices fell 2.36% [48] 2.4. Tin and Nickel - London tin prices dropped 12.17%, and Shanghai tin prices fell 13.22%. Nickel prices also saw a decline [61] 3. Energy Metals 3.1. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices fell 3.11% to 71,600 RMB/ton, with continued oversupply in the market [77] 3.2. Cobalt - Overseas MB cobalt prices increased by 0.16% to 15.88 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices fell [88]

Core Insights - The 2025 Q1 Bloomberg China Bond Underwriting Rankings reveal significant trends in the bond market, highlighting the performance of various banks and securities firms in the issuance of bonds [2][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - The total issuance of Panda bonds in 2024 exceeded 208.25 billion RMB, while in Q1 2025, the issuance by foreign institutions in the domestic market reached 41.6 billion RMB, showing a decrease of 38.28% compared to the same period last year [4]. - The overall issuance of domestic credit bonds in Q1 2025 was approximately 3.77 trillion RMB, reflecting a decline of about 12.61% year-on-year [6]. - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit increased to approximately 8.35 trillion RMB in Q1 2025, up 11.97% from the previous year [10]. Group 2: Rankings and Performance - In the Bloomberg Q1 2025 China Bond Rankings, the top three positions were held by Bank of China (5.918%), CITIC Bank (5.675%), and Industrial Bank (5.297%) [7]. - For corporate bonds, CITIC Securities (13.450%), CITIC Jiantou (9.988%), and former Guotai Junan Securities (8.053%) maintained their top three positions [7]. - In the offshore RMB bond rankings (excluding certificates of deposit), the top three were held by Amundi (12.248%), HSBC (7.117%), and Standard Chartered Bank (5.021%) [7]. Group 3: Local Government Bonds - The issuance of local government bonds in Q1 2025 was approximately 2.66 trillion RMB, a significant increase of about 78.26% year-on-year [12]. - The issuance included about 0.38 trillion RMB in general bonds and approximately 2.28 trillion RMB in special bonds, with debt resolution remaining a key focus [12]. Group 4: Offshore Bond Market - The issuance of offshore bonds (excluding certificates of deposit) by Chinese enterprises exceeded 401.4 billion RMB in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of approximately 35.36% [16]. - The issuance of "Kung Fu Bonds" surpassed 30 billion USD (approximately 219.2 billion RMB), showing a significant increase of over 122.20% compared to the previous year [16].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Financial Futures and Options**: Indexes are differentiated, with large - cap stocks continuing to rebound in the short - term and in a wide - range shock in the medium - term. For bonds, there is a short - term shock adjustment and long - term bonds continue to correct, but are expected to be strong in the medium - term [1][2]. - **Commodity Futures and Options**: Steel prices are gradually falling in the short - term and under pressure in the medium - term [4]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options **Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM)** - **Intraday View**: Indexes are differentiated, and large - cap stocks continue to rebound [1]. - **Medium - term View**: Wide - range shock, index differentiation [1]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold a long IH2504 and short IM2504 hedging portfolio, and buy IO2504 - C - 3750 call options [1]. - **Core Logic**: Domestic market - stabilizing policies are introduced, which helps large - cap indexes rebound. Meanwhile, the US tariff policy causes uncertainty and overseas risk - asset selling pressure disturbs the domestic market [1]. **Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL)** - **Intraday View**: Shock adjustment, long - term bonds continue to correct [2]. - **Medium - term View**: Bullish [2]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions of T2506 and TL2506 for allocation, and take profit for trading positions [2]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term repo rates of deposit - taking institutions rise slightly, and medium - and long - term funds stop falling. Domestic market - stabilizing policies lead to profit - taking pressure on bonds. The "equal - tariff" policy increases uncertainty, and funds flow to safe - haven assets, raising expectations of "loose money" [2][3]. Commodity Futures and Options **Black and Building Materials (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)** - **Intraday View**: Steel prices gradually fall [4]. - **Medium - term View**: Steel prices are under pressure [4]. - **Reference Strategy**: Sell rebar call option RB2510 - C - 3450 and buy rebar in - the - money put option RB2510 - P - 3150 [6]. - **Core Logic**: Raw material inventory pressure is high, which may increase steel supply. Downstream demand is weak, and construction project funds are in short supply, resulting in slow construction progress and weak steel consumption. Before the introduction of domestic fiscal stimulus policies, steel prices may continue to fall [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the US and China, particularly focusing on Trump's threats to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods, which could reach 50% if China does not comply with US demands by April 8, 2025. It highlights the potential economic implications of these actions for both countries and the global economy [1][2]. Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - Trump threatens to impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods if China does not revoke the current 34% tariffs by April 8, 2025, indicating a significant escalation in trade tensions [1]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responds firmly, stating that if the US continues its unilateral actions, China will retaliate accordingly [1]. - Citigroup identifies four main reasons behind Trump's actions: punishment, raising funds to cover the US fiscal deficit, warning the EU, and delineating between "enemies" and "friends" [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Implications - Citigroup suggests that China may aim to force the US back to the negotiation table by creating systemic risks through market downturns, indicating that the trade conflict has broader implications for the global economic system [2]. - The article compares the potential financial crisis stemming from these tensions to the Cuban Missile Crisis, emphasizing the seriousness of the situation [2]. - In response to market volatility, major Chinese state-owned enterprises and financial institutions are actively buying stocks and ETFs to stabilize the market [2][3]. Group 3: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market shows a rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.58%, and over 3,200 stocks increasing in value, indicating a positive market sentiment despite external pressures [3]. - The central government is implementing measures to support the market, including increasing the equity asset ratio for certain funds and providing liquidity support through the central bank [3]. - Specific sectors such as agriculture and consumer goods are experiencing significant gains, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up [3]. Group 4: US Treasury Bonds and China's Actions - Reports indicate that China may be selling US Treasury bonds as a response to the escalating trade tensions, contributing to rising long-term interest rates in the US [5]. - Analysts suggest that China's potential for a broader sell-off of US debt could be a retaliatory measure against US tariffs, highlighting the interconnectedness of trade and financial markets [5]. Group 5: Corporate Actions and Financial Strategies - Various Chinese companies are announcing stock buybacks and increasing their holdings in response to market conditions, reflecting a proactive approach to stabilize their stock prices [7]. - The article notes that the National Social Security Fund and other state-backed entities are increasing their investments in domestic stocks, signaling confidence in the long-term prospects of the Chinese market [7].