Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant inflow of funds into bank wealth management and money market funds due to risk aversion and the trend of "deposit migration" [2][5] - As of April, public money market funds saw an increase of 662.3 billion yuan, pushing the total public fund scale to a historical high of 33.12 trillion yuan [2][3] - Bank wealth management products have also experienced growth, with a current scale of 31.44 trillion yuan, reflecting a net increase of 2.41 trillion yuan since the end of March [2][6] Group 2 - The public fund scale surpassed 33 trillion yuan for the first time, marking a significant milestone in the asset management industry [2][4] - The competition between public funds and bank wealth management is intensifying, especially as interest rates on demand deposits approach zero, making "deposit replacement" a key competitive advantage for asset management firms [2][8] - The decline in deposit rates, with one-year deposit rates falling below 1%, has led to a reduction of 1.39 trillion yuan in household deposits, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 1.57 trillion yuan [5][6] Group 3 - The growth in public funds is primarily driven by money market funds, which reached a total scale of 13.99 trillion yuan, reflecting a net increase of 662.3 billion yuan [3][4] - Other open-end fund types, particularly fixed-income products, also showed significant growth, with bond funds increasing by 140.2 billion yuan [3][4] - The low interest rate environment has compressed the yield space for money market funds and short-term wealth management products, yet they remain attractive compared to the near-zero returns on demand deposits [6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Japan's bond market is dominated by government and quasi - government bonds, and the scale of government debt has been continuously increasing, while the growth of corporate and individual debt may stagnate in the stage of population negative growth [5][15]. - The Bank of Japan is the most important investor in the Japanese bond market, holding nearly half of Japanese government bonds. Banks and insurance companies have a relatively high proportion of overseas bond holdings due to low domestic bond yields. Although Japan's government debt - to - GDP ratio is high, it has not experienced a currency crisis because most of its government bonds are held by domestic investors [17]. - Japan's stock funds have grown significantly, while the scale of fixed - income funds has nearly reached zero. When the 10 - year government bond yield is below 2%, the scale of bond funds starts to decline; when it is below 1.5%, the decline accelerates; when it is below 0.5%, the scale may gradually reach zero [1][99]. - In the low - interest - rate era, the indexation and ETF - ization of bond funds are major trends, and the fee rate shows a downward trend. Global bond funds may be a direction when domestic bond yields are low under the condition of free capital convertibility [1][101]. - China is in a low - interest - rate era. The development of domestic pure - bond funds may stagnate, and it is recommended to actively follow the trend of bond - fund indexation and ETF - ization, develop overseas bond funds, and strengthen the development of fixed - income plus funds [102][106]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Japan's Bond Market Structure's Long - term Changes 3.1.1 Japan's Economic Past and Present - After World War II, Japan's economy grew rapidly from 1961 - 1990, with an average real GDP growth rate of 6.2%. In the 1980s, Japan was world - leading in many fields. However, since the 1990s, due to the bursting of the real - estate and stock - market bubbles, Japan has entered a "lost era", with an average real GDP growth rate of only 0.7% from 1992 - 2024 [6]. - Japan's GDP was once very close to that of the United States in 1995, accounting for 72.6% of the US GDP. But by 2024, it was only 13.8% of the US GDP [7]. 3.1.2 Japan's Bond Market Structure Changes - Japan's bond types include government bonds, corporate bonds, financial bonds, etc. Government and quasi - government bonds are the main part of the bond market. As of the end of 2024, the balance of government and quasi - government bonds accounted for 92.3% of the total bond - market scale [9]. - Since 1998, the proportion of government and quasi - government bonds in the Japanese bond market has gradually increased from 64.1% to 92.3%. The scale of the Japanese bond market has been growing, but the scale of convertible bonds has nearly reached zero, reflecting the low financing demand of Japanese enterprises [9][14]. - Looking forward, the scale of Chinese government bonds may continue to increase, and the proportion of government bonds in the bond market may continue to rise [15]. 3.2 Japan's Bond Market Investor Structure Changes 3.2.1 Holders of Japanese Government Bonds - As of the end of 2023, the Bank of Japan held 47.9% of Japanese government bonds, followed by insurance companies, banks, pension funds, and overseas investors [18]. - The issuance term of Japanese government bonds is relatively long, with bonds with a term of 10 years and above accounting for 76.4% of the balance as of the end of 2023 [20]. 3.2.2 Bond Investment of Various Japanese Investors - The Bank of Japan is the core investor in Japanese government bonds. As of the end of 2024, it held 582.7 trillion yen of government bonds, accounting for 47.5% of the government - bond balance. The Bank of Japan's assets are mainly government bonds [22][28]. - Japanese financial institutions have a relatively high proportion of overseas bond holdings. As of March 2024, overseas bonds accounted for 37.6% of the bond investments of Japanese domestic banks and 25.2% of those of the insurance industry [29]. - The proportion of securities investment of Mitsubishi UFJ Bank has decreased significantly since 2013, which is related to the low bond yields in Japan. When the 10 - year government bond yield falls below 1%, the proportion of its securities investment decreases significantly [31][32]. - Japanese life - insurance companies invest a significant amount in Japanese government bonds and also have a relatively high proportion of overseas - securities investment. The Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) has a relatively high proportion of stock investment, with a 49.9% stock - investment ratio at the end of 2024 [39][40]. - Japanese retail government bonds have three main terms: 3, 5, and 10 years. The amount of government bonds held by individual investors has remained at a low level in recent years, which is related to the decline in government - bond yields [43]. 3.3 Japan's Public - Fund Industry's Seventy - year Development 3.3.1 Long - term Changes in Japan's Public - Fund Industry - Japan's public - fund industry has a history of more than 70 years. The earliest securities investment trust appeared in 1937, and the legal basis for modern securities investment trust was established in 1951. The earliest open - end stock investment fund was established in 1952, and the earliest bond fund was established in 1961 [53]. - The development of Japan's public funds can be divided into four stages: the start - up stage (before 1971), the booming development stage (1972 - 1989), the stock - fund downturn stage (1990 - 1997), and the stock - fund maturity stage (after 1997). As of the end of 2024, the total scale of Japanese public funds reached a record high of 246 trillion yen, with stock funds accounting for the majority [54][55][56]. 3.3.2 Structure Evolution and Investment Direction of Japan's Stock Funds - Japan's stock funds can invest in both domestic and overseas bonds and stocks. The scale of bonds invested by stock funds was once higher than that of stocks, but since 2012, the proportion of bond investment has decreased significantly [60]. - As of the end of 2024, Japanese stock funds held 10.1 trillion yen of domestic stocks, accounting for 10.2% of the total market value of the Japanese stock market. The top three industries with increased investment proportions from 2011 - 2024 were electrical appliances, services, and retail, while the top three with decreased proportions were automobiles, chemicals, and glass and ceramics [64]. - The proportion of bond investment by Japanese stock funds is closely related to the stock - market situation and bond - yield levels. As of the end of 2024, the bond - investment proportion of Japanese stock funds was only 8.0% [66]. - Since 2013, the scale of Japanese stock funds has increased significantly, which is closely related to the rise of the stock market and the development of ETFs. As of the end of 2024, the scale of ETFs in stock funds accounted for 38.8% [68]. 3.3.3 Evolution of Japan's Fixed - Income Funds - Japan's fixed - income funds are mainly divided into money funds (MMF), long - term bond funds, medium - term government - bond funds, domestic - and - foreign - bond funds, and money reserve funds (MRF). Currently, the scale of money funds, medium - term government - bond funds, and domestic - and - foreign - bond funds has reached zero [71]. - The scale of Japanese money funds reached zero in 2017 due to the Bank of Japan's unconventional monetary - easing policies and negative interest rates [75]. - The scale of Japanese bond funds has decreased significantly. As of the end of 2024, the scale of long - term bond funds was only 0.45 trillion yen, and the fixed - income funds are mainly MRF, with a scale of 15.3 trillion yen [71][84]. 3.3.4 Competition Pattern of Japanese Asset - Management Institutions - As of the end of 2024, there were hundreds of asset - management institutions in Japan, including 80 public - asset - management companies. The total management scale of public - asset - management institutions was 380 trillion yen, with public - fund scale at 246 trillion yen [90]. - Nomura Asset Management dominates the market, and the top five public - fund institutions account for nearly 70% of the market share. The indexation and ETF - ization characteristics of Japanese stock funds are obvious, and the average fee rate of public funds is in a downward trend [91][95][97]. 3.4 Enlightenment from the Development of Japanese Fixed - Income Funds 3.4.1 Enlightenment from the Development of Japanese Fixed - Income Funds - When the 10 - year government - bond yield is below 0.5%, the development of fixed - income funds may reach an end. The current main part of Japanese fixed - income funds is MRF, which is less sensitive to yield [98][100]. - If capital is freely convertible, global bond funds may be a direction when domestic bond yields are low. However, the total scale of Japanese bond funds investing in overseas bonds is not large due to exchange - rate risks and hedging costs [100]. - In a low - interest - rate environment, the indexation and ETF - ization of bond funds are major trends, and the fee rate shows a downward trend [101]. 3.4.2 Where Do Bond Funds Go in the Low - Interest - Rate Era? - China is in a low - interest - rate era, and the development of domestic pure - bond funds may stagnate. It is recommended to actively follow the trend of bond - fund indexation and ETF - ization, develop overseas bond funds, and strengthen the development of fixed - income plus funds [102][106][109]. - In the low - interest - rate era, bond - fund indexation and ETF - ization are major trends. Nomura Asset Management has many bond ETFs and index funds. China's fund companies can actively layout bond - segment index funds or ETFs [109][112]. - Fund companies are advised to actively obtain QDII quotas and vigorously layout overseas - bond investments [117]. - Fixed - income plus funds still have broad development space and can be further segmented, and the scope of plus - assets can be expanded [118].

Core Viewpoint - The traditional savings model is undergoing a transformation due to low interest rates, prompting investors to seek new wealth growth opportunities through digital platforms and high-yield financial products offered by banks [1][2]. Group 1: Changes in Savings and Investment Behavior - Investors are increasingly turning to high-yield financial products, with some offering annualized returns exceeding 6%, leading to a phenomenon where investors "wait for quotas" to purchase these products [2][3]. - The reduction in deposit interest rates, with major banks lowering one-year fixed deposit rates below 1% to 0.95% and savings rates to 0.05%, has significantly decreased the attractiveness of traditional savings [2][3]. Group 2: Rise of High-Yield Financial Products - Financial institutions are launching short-term high-yield products, such as those from Ping An Wealth Management, which achieved an annualized return of 6.12% over three months, attracting substantial capital from traditional savings [3]. - The market for financial products is expanding rapidly, with a reported 506 new financial products issued in one week, reflecting a growing investor enthusiasm for high-yield options [3][6]. Group 3: Emergence of New Investment Strategies - Social platforms are becoming key venues for investors to share and develop new investment strategies, with individuals employing detailed tracking methods to optimize their returns [4][5]. - The trend of diversifying investments is gaining traction among younger investors, with many opting for a mix of money market funds, bond funds, and gold funds, thereby reducing risk and increasing options [5]. Group 4: Market Expansion and Future Outlook - The total scale of bank wealth management products reached 31.28 trillion yuan, with expectations for continued growth as deposit rates decline further [6]. - Financial institutions are actively promoting new product issuances and optimizing product structures to attract more investors, although there are concerns about the sustainability of high yields in the future [6].

这几年来，令挖掘基感悟最深的一个词就是"变局"。过去对一切熟识的掌控感，开始逐渐被不确定性所取代。 一年期定期存款利率首次跌破1%、货基收益率持续下行……无风险利率带来的"稳稳的幸福"正在消失，而货币总量的增长与购买力可能的缩水却将伴随着 国民经济的滚滚向前如影随形。 一边是长期低利率时代的加速渐进，优质"资产荒"正从周期性现象走向新常态；另一边是权益市场的波动之频繁，愈发考验投资者的"顿感力"与配置智慧。 当变局与不确定性本身成为了最确定的主题，市场正在本能地追寻更稳健的价值锚点。 随着今日一则大消息传来——信用债ETF开展质押式回购即将正式实施 来源：智通财经 信用债ETF这个组合了稳健票息与交易灵活度的金融工具，正在完成从组合配角到核心拼图的进化。 01 工具解码 ——信用债ETF基金的双重底色 信用债ETF基金的内核，正是"信用债"叠加"ETF"所产生的化学反应。 所谓信用债，指的是依赖企业自身信用，而非政府直接背书的债券。 主要包括商业银行等金融机构发行的普通金融债，以及非金融企业（含城投、央国企）发行的公司债、企业债、中期票据、短期融资券等。 来源：中信建投证券 ——信用债ETF基金的三个认知 作 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the shift in investment strategies among young people in response to declining interest rates, highlighting the emergence of a new investment combination termed "New Three Golds" which includes money market funds, bond funds, and gold ETFs [1][2][9] Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - Major state-owned banks have collectively reduced the one-year fixed deposit interest rate to 0.95%, with some private banks offering rates as low as 1.15% for one-year deposits and below 1.3% for three-year deposits [1][2] - The decline in interest rates has led to a significant outflow of deposits from banks, with a reported decrease of 1.39 trillion yuan in household deposits in April, while non-bank deposits increased by 1.57 trillion yuan [2] Group 2: Investment Behavior of Young People - As of April 2025, 9.37 million individuals born in the 1990s and 2000s have adopted the "New Three Golds" investment strategy, which is becoming a standard for young investors [2] - Young investors are increasingly favoring bond funds due to their low volatility and stable returns, with a notable increase in the issuance of short-term bond funds [6][8] Group 3: Gold ETFs as a Safe Haven - Gold ETFs are viewed as a "safe haven" in the "New Three Golds" strategy, with a 206% year-on-year increase in user searches for gold on Alipay in Q1 of this year [6][7] - The total scale of gold ETFs in China reached 101.99 billion yuan by the end of Q1, reflecting a 185% increase compared to the previous year [6] Group 4: Changing Investment Mindset - The investment mindset among young people is shifting from seeking quick wealth to pursuing sustainable, small returns, as evidenced by an 88% year-on-year increase in users purchasing "fixed income+" funds [8] - Social media discussions around practical investment strategies indicate a strong demand for stable and flexible investment options among young investors [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) indicates a cautious approach to monetary policy, with the 1-year LPR set at 3% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, marking the first rate cut of the year [1][2][18]. Group 1: LPR Adjustment - The 5-year LPR was reduced by 10 basis points from 5% to 3.6% [1]. - The adjustment was anticipated following the May 7 meeting where the central bank announced a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy rates [2][3]. - Some banks preemptively adjusted their LPR add-on rates before the official LPR cut, indicating a proactive stance in managing lending rates [4][5]. Group 2: Bank Responses - Major banks have adjusted their first loan rates, with some reducing their LPR add-on from LPR-60 basis points to LPR-50 basis points [5][6]. - The increase in add-on rates effectively neutralizes the impact of the LPR cut, maintaining the overall mortgage rates [8][9]. - Banks are raising add-on rates to mitigate risks associated with lower lending rates, particularly to avoid competition with public housing loan rates [10][11]. Group 3: Deposit Rate Changes - Alongside the LPR cut, deposit rates have also been reduced, with significant cuts across various terms [12][13]. - The reduction in deposit rates aims to maintain banks' interest margins amidst the LPR adjustments [14][15]. - The larger cut in deposit rates compared to LPR reflects banks' need to manage their funding costs and liquidity [22][23]. Group 4: Economic Context - The central bank's balance sheet has contracted, indicating a tightening of liquidity in the market, which complicates the monetary policy landscape [25]. - The need for increased government investment and liquidity measures is emphasized to address the challenges of insufficient loan demand [26]. - The potential shift towards zero or negative interest rates is highlighted, suggesting a need for alternative investment strategies to preserve capital [27].

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in deposit interest rates by major state-owned banks indicates a shift towards a low-interest-rate environment, prompting investors to seek alternative investment opportunities such as bond funds [2][4]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Changes - Major state-owned banks have lowered their one-year fixed deposit rates to between 0.95% and 0.98%, reflecting a broader trend of declining interest rates amid global economic pressures [2]. - The current environment marks a significant shift, with deposit rates entering a "zero" era, contrasting sharply with the past when rates above 5% were common [2]. Group 2: Investment Trends - In response to low deposit rates, many investors are turning to bond funds as a relatively stable investment option, with younger investors showing a trend of frequent adjustments to their bond fund positions, averaging 10 times a year [2]. - A report from Xiaohongshu and Ant Wealth highlights that the phrase "Did you collect eggs?" has become common among young investors, indicating a focus on small, consistent gains from bond funds [2]. Group 3: Bond Fund Variations - Different types of bond funds exist, and investors need to understand the characteristics of each to select the most suitable options for their needs [4]. - The "Zhongtai Asset Management Fixed Income Family" offers various products tailored to different investment scenarios, helping investors navigate their choices [4]. Group 4: Specific Bond Fund Products - Zhongtai Shuangli Bond Fund focuses on low volatility and aims to capture more yield opportunities while maintaining a stable investment approach, suitable for those willing to accept some fluctuations for higher returns [6]. - Zhongtai Anyi Interest Rate Bond Fund specializes in government and policy financial bonds, providing a low-risk investment option with a notable performance record since its inception [10][14]. - Zhongtai Anhui Bond Fund invests primarily in AAA-rated credit bonds and liquid interest rate bonds, utilizing futures for risk hedging, making it suitable for long-term stable return seekers [19][21]. - Zhongtai Wenggu 30-Day Holding Short-Duration Bond Fund and Zhongtai Wenggu Weekly Purchase 12-Week Rolling Bond Fund both emphasize steady returns and disciplined investment strategies, appealing to conservative investors [23][26].

文/博时基金投资决策委员会专职委员于善辉 最近两年，AI技术非常火热，AI赋能为公司的投研带来了显著的变化，主要体现在以下几个方面：信 息收集的效率更高，信息传播的速度更快，信息的覆盖面更广。 此外，AI通过智能化的加工手段，使我们获取信息变得更加容易。这些变化支持我们在投研上能够更 高效地做出决策。当然，AI并不是凭空产生的，它基于现有的信息进行高度浓缩、提炼和高效传播。 因此，有两点非常重要：一是基础信息的质量和噪音问题。我们需要面对并解决这些问题。二是信息本 身虽然重要，但并不能直接产生投资结果。关键在于独立判断和有效结合自己的能力。 在这个过程中，如何稳定获得超额收益，如何在复杂的信息中进行筛选，变得尤为重要。投资人或基金 经理需要有定力，适当做减法，不是所有信息都需要关注。同时，独立思考的时间也很重要，这有助于 形成更有价值和前瞻性的投资判断。信息的挖掘有助于提高胜率，但胜率的提升并不依赖于信息的狂轰 滥炸。 我们关注到，今年以来，FOF基金的业绩和发行规模有所回暖。FOF的规模膨胀达到4倍，这主要是因 为其体量相对较小，发展一波后倍数看起来较大。重要的是，FOF经过牛熊周期的检验，其风险收益特 征 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is transitioning into a low-interest-rate environment, which poses significant challenges for profitability and requires a strategic shift from a focus on asset scale to value-driven growth [3][4][6]. Summary by Sections Low-Interest Rate Era - The recent decline in LPR rates indicates a shift towards a low-interest-rate era in China, with net interest margins decreasing from 2.08% in 2021 to 1.43% in Q1 2025, a drop of 65 basis points [3][8]. - Historical experiences from Japan, the US, and Europe suggest that once a country enters a low-interest-rate environment, it may take over a decade to exit [7][8]. International Experience and Strategies - Japanese banks have successfully navigated low-interest rates through international expansion and diversification of non-interest income, providing a model for Chinese banks [4][11]. - Key strategies employed by Japanese banks include expanding overseas operations, adjusting loan structures, enhancing non-interest income, and pursuing mergers and acquisitions [12][13]. Domestic Banking Response - Chinese banks are adopting a combination of strategies to cope with the low-interest-rate environment, focusing on both increasing non-interest income and optimizing cost structures [18][20]. - Major banks like ICBC are emphasizing internationalization and comprehensive service offerings to support revenue growth, with international assets contributing 11.8% to the group's total [16][20]. Transformation and Future Outlook - The banking sector is moving from a reliance on interest income to a diversified income model, with a focus on wealth management and comprehensive financial services [21][22]. - Smaller banks are also adapting by deepening regional market engagement and offering tailored financial products to enhance customer loyalty [22]. Conclusion - The transition to a low-interest-rate environment necessitates a fundamental transformation in the banking industry, emphasizing strategic execution and the development of a multi-faceted income structure to ensure sustainable growth [15][22].

Core Viewpoint - The asset management industry in China is transitioning towards high-quality development amidst low interest rates and stringent regulations, with a focus on shifting from "scale-driven" to "quality-led" growth [1] Group 1: Current Industry Landscape - As of the end of 2024, the total scale of China's asset management industry is expected to exceed 140 trillion yuan, becoming a significant force in wealth management and capital market resource allocation [1] - The industry faces both transformation pressures and opportunities, necessitating a profound shift in operational strategies [1] Group 2: Key Insights from Industry Leaders - The high-quality development of asset management institutions should focus on enhancing investment research capabilities and optimizing product offerings to meet diverse client needs [2][3] - The public fund industry has seen significant growth over the past 20 years, driven by high-level opening-up policies, which should continue to be pursued for further development [3][4] - Private equity firms must emphasize compliance and innovation to enhance their risk management capabilities and competitive edge [4] Group 3: Market Trends and Client Preferences - There is a notable shift in residents' asset allocation preferences, with a polarization in risk appetite: some investors are seeking safety while others are more willing to take risks due to policy influences [3][16] - The market is experiencing a structural challenge where quality assets are becoming increasingly scarce despite ample liquidity [3][16] Group 4: Strategies for High-Quality Development - Asset management institutions should prioritize value creation for clients, focusing on effective investment strategies and robust research capabilities [8][12] - Embracing digital transformation and integrating AI into investment processes are essential for enhancing operational efficiency and client service [12][35] - The development of diversified product lines that cater to varying risk appetites is crucial for meeting evolving client demands [18] Group 5: Regulatory and Policy Recommendations - There is a call for unified standards in performance benchmarks for financial products to foster a sustainable investment environment [30] - Continued support for international cooperation and knowledge exchange is vital for cultivating competitive asset management institutions [32][19]