Group 1 - The final manufacturing PMI for Japan in July is reported at 48.9, slightly up from the previous value of 48.8 [1]

核心观点 7月制造业PMI为49.3%，环比下降0.4pct，处于历史同期偏低水平。 7月PMI弱于季节性，需求疲软是主因。7月新订单和新出口订单指数明显低于历史同期均值；生产指数虽受高温、暴雨洪涝灾害影响，季节性走 弱，但总体而言仍持平历史同期水平，7月生产相对有韧性。 市场关注7月PMI，更看重需求端。7月PMI给出两则信号回应： 其一，后续出口或边际放缓，高频数据亦显示出口有走弱迹象。美洛杉矶港口进口吞吐量下滑，对美航线运价下滑。韩国最新披露7月前20日出口 同比-2.2%，而上月为+8.3%。 其二，"反内卷"之下市场交易了一轮上游涨价预期，但当需求偏弱，上游涨价交易的持续性有待观察。 正文 国家统计局7月31日发布PMI数据，7月制造业采购经理指数为49.3%，比上月下降0.4个百分点。 一、7月制造业PMI表现偏弱，需求疲软是主因。 7月制造业PMI环比增速处于历史同期偏低水平，表现偏弱。 7月制造业PMI为49.3%，连续四个月处于荣枯线下方，环比下降0.4pct，处于历史同期偏低水平（近10年同期均值为0.0pct），仅高于2021年和 2022年。 生产指数受部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素 ...

澳大利亚7月标普全球制造业PMI终值 51.3，前值51.6。 ...

Group 1 - Key Point 1: Japan's unemployment rate for June will be released at 07:30 [1] - Key Point 2: China's July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will be announced at 09:45 [1] - Key Point 3: The National Development and Reform Commission will hold a press conference at 10:00 [1] Group 2 - Key Point 1: The UK Nationwide House Price Index for July will be published at 14:00 [1] - Key Point 2: France's July Manufacturing PMI final value will be available at 15:50 [1] - Key Point 3: Germany's July Manufacturing PMI final value will be released at 15:55 [1] - Key Point 4: Eurozone's July Manufacturing PMI final value will be announced at 16:00 [1] - Key Point 5: The UK's July Manufacturing PMI final value will be published at 16:30 [1] Group 3 - Key Point 1: Eurozone's July CPI year-on-year preliminary value will be released at 17:00 [1] - Key Point 2: Eurozone's July CPI month-on-month preliminary value will be available at 17:00 [1] Group 4 - Key Point 1: The US unemployment rate for July will be announced at 20:30 [1] - Key Point 2: The US seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for July will be released at 20:30 [1] - Key Point 3: The US average hourly earnings year-on-year for July will be published at 20:30 [1] - Key Point 4: The US average hourly earnings month-on-month for July will be available at 20:30 [1] - Key Point 5: The US July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value will be announced at 21:45 [1] - Key Point 6: The US July ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released at 22:00 [1] - Key Point 7: The US July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value will be available at 22:00 [1] - Key Point 8: The US one-year inflation expectations final value for July will be published at 22:00 [1] - Key Point 9: The US June construction spending month-on-month will be released at 22:00 [1] Group 5 - Key Point 1: The total number of oil rigs in the US for the week ending August 1 will be announced at 01:00 the next day [1]

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for July 2025 is reported at 49.3%, indicating a decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a downturn in manufacturing activity [1] Manufacturing PMI Breakdown - The production index stands at 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, while the new orders index is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in production but a slowdown in market demand [2] - The raw material inventory index is at 47.7%, down 0.3 percentage points, and the employment index is at 48.0%, up 0.1 percentage points, suggesting challenges in workforce levels [1][2] - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.3%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating stable supply chain conditions [1] Price Index and Market Dynamics - The price index has risen, with the main raw material purchase price index at 51.5%, up 3.1 percentage points, and the factory price index at 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [2] Large Enterprises and New Growth Drivers - Large enterprises maintain expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, and their production and new orders indices at 52.1% and 50.7%, respectively, indicating a stable operational environment [2] - Emerging sectors such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing show PMIs of 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, indicating ongoing growth in these areas [2] Market Expectations and Future Outlook - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.6%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market developments [2] - Analysts suggest that despite a decline in domestic demand, future policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment may lead to a recovery in economic activity [3] - The focus on new pillar industries and the stabilization of the capital market are expected to support the equity market, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [3]

Group 1: Report Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. Due to the Politburo meeting in July mentioning the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, the future monetary environment tends to be loose, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded. After continuous corrections since July, the 1 - year Treasury bond yield has rebounded to near the policy rate, triggering the anchoring effect of the policy rate, so Treasury bond futures bottomed out and rebounded. The manufacturing PMI released in July was 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity and insufficient effective domestic demand. The weak performance of the manufacturing PMI increases the expectation of future monetary easing, which is beneficial to Treasury bond futures. In general, it is expected that Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [3] Group 2: Industry News and Related Charts - On July 31, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 283.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate, quantity - tender method for a term of 7 days with a winning bid rate of 1.4% [5] - On July 31, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in July, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined [5] - The report also includes charts such as the trends of TL2509, T2509, TF2509, TS2509, the Treasury bond yield - to - maturity curve, and the central bank's open - market operations [6][8][10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View On Thursday, the RB2510 contract declined with reduced positions. The July manufacturing PMI in China was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased slightly this period, with a capacity utilization rate of 46.27% (year - on - year increase). Terminal demand was poor, apparent demand declined, and inventory increased. Overall, economic data was worse than expected, and combined with the limit - down of coking coal, market sentiment was dampened, causing rebar prices to fall. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were adjusting downward with an enlarged green column. The operation suggestion is short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,205 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; position: 1,816,026 lots, down 213,107 lots; top 20 net positions: - 58,700 lots, down 59,984 lots; RB10 - 1 contract spread: - 56 yuan/ton, unchanged; RB exchange warehouse receipts: 85,034 tons, unchanged; HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 185 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,380 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; (actual weight): 3,467 yuan/ton, down 103 yuan; Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,470 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,330 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; RB main contract basis: 175 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 80 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 770 yuan/wet ton, down 16 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,365 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Q235 billet: 3,140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; 45 - port iron ore inventory: 13,790.38 million tons, up 5.17 million tons; sample coking plant coke inventory: 49.80 million tons, down 5.62 million tons; sample steel mill coke inventory: 640 million tons, up 0.91 million tons; 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.48%, up 0.14 percentage points; Tangshan billet inventory: 111.02 million tons, up 4.10 million tons; 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.78%, down 0.14 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Sample steel mill rebar output: 211.06 million tons, down 0.90 million tons; sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate: 46.27%, down 0.20 percentage points; sample steel mill rebar inventory: 162.15 million tons, down 3.52 million tons; 35 - city rebar social inventory: 384.14 million tons, up 11.17 million tons; independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate: 68.75%, up 5.21 percentage points; domestic crude steel output: 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons; Chinese rebar monthly output: 1,688 million tons, up 30 million tons; steel net export volume: 921 million tons, down 89 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - National real estate climate index: 93.60, down 0.11; cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment: 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points; cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment: - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points; cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment: 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points; cumulative value of housing construction area: 633,321 million square meters, down 8,302 million square meters; cumulative value of new housing construction area: 30,364 million square meters, down 7,181 million square meters; commercial housing unsold area: 40,821 million square meters, up 443 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points; medium - scale enterprises' PMI was 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points; small - scale enterprises' PMI was 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points. - In June 2025, China's engineering machinery export value was 5.074 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 10.2%. The export value of excavators was 891 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 24.16% and a month - on - month increase of 0.22% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in July showed a short-term fluctuation, dropping to 49.3%, while the overall economic output remains in an expansion phase, supported by non-manufacturing indices above 50% [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and extreme weather conditions [1]. - The new orders index for manufacturing was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, and the new export orders index was 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points [1]. - Despite weak market demand, the production index was at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion for the third consecutive month [1]. Key Industries - The equipment manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 1.1 percentage points but still in the expansion zone; high-tech manufacturing PMI was 50.6%, maintaining expansion for six months [2]. - Large enterprises showed stable expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [2]. Price Indices - The raw material purchase price index for manufacturing was 51.5%, up 3.1 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone after four months below 50% [2]. - The factory price index was 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [2]. Market Expectations - The manufacturing production and operation activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, indicating increased confidence among manufacturers [3]. - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, with the service sector at 50% and construction at 50.6%, both remaining in the expansion zone [3]. - The non-manufacturing business activity expectation index was 55.8%, reflecting optimism among most non-manufacturing enterprises [3]. Future Outlook - It is anticipated that construction activities will rebound as the rainy season ends, supported by policies aimed at boosting investment and consumption [4].

Group 1 - The non-manufacturing business activity index for July is 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion in the sector [9] - The comprehensive PMI output index for July is 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month, yet remains above the critical point, suggesting that overall production and business activities in China are maintaining expansion [4] - The manufacturing PMI for July has slightly decreased to 49.3%, remaining below the critical point, indicating ongoing economic downward pressure [7] Group 2 - The new orders index in the manufacturing PMI has dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, entering the contraction zone, reflecting a potential weakening in market demand [8] - The production index stands at 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, while the supplier delivery time index is at 50.3%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating mixed signals in manufacturing activity [7] - The construction activity index for July is 50.6%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points, influenced by adverse weather conditions affecting construction activities [9] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the decline in manufacturing PMI is primarily due to weakened external demand and a slowdown in domestic consumption growth, particularly in the real estate market [8][10] - The prices of major raw materials have shown improvement, with the purchasing price index rising to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March [8] - The overall economic outlook indicates a need for increased macroeconomic policy adjustments to counteract the downward pressure observed in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [10][11]

期货日报网讯（记者 杨美）中国物流与采购联合会、国家统计局服务业调查中心发布的2025年7月份中 国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，较上月下降0.4个百分点，显示宏观经济运行有所波动。分项 指数以及分行业指数变化显示，7月制造业PMI波动主要是受短期因素影响，经济向好恢复基础仍然牢 固。 中国物流信息中心分析师文韬表示，短期因素影响显现，市场需求偏弱运行。7月份，我国多地遭遇高 温热浪、暴雨洪涝以及干旱等极端天气，给户外施工作业、居民日常生活等带来阻碍，进而影响到市场 需求释放。制造业新订单指数为49.4%，较上月下降0.8个百分点，落入收缩区间，显示市场需求有所收 紧。新出口订单指数为47.1%，较上月下降0.6个百分点。结合来看，受短期因素影响，7月份市场需求 偏弱运行。 企业生产保持扩张，稳中有增态势持续。7月份，尽管市场需求端有所偏弱，极端天气持续存在，制造 业企业生产活动仍有所扩张。生产指数为50.5%，虽较上月下降0.5个百分点，仍连续3个月运行在扩张 区间，显示制造业生产活动扩张势头虽短期有所放缓，但稳中有增态势没有改变。 原材料价格有所回升，产成品价格继续趋稳。7月份，制造业原材料购 ...