智通财经5月4日电，当地时间5月3日，由胡塞武装控制的"人道主义行动协调中心"宣布一项决定，禁止 从美国港口出口、再出口、运输、装载、购买、转运或销售美国原油的船只通行红海、曼德海峡、亚丁 湾、阿拉伯海和印度洋，并表示上述船只可能在胡塞武装能够打击到的任何地方成为攻击目标。 胡塞武装称将打击从美港口以出口等形式通行红海等海域的船只 ...

美国副总统万斯：俄乌冲突短期内难以结束。 ...

现货运价维持跌势,多空博弈下,空头情绪稍占上风,盘面低位震荡 。之后需对关税政策、中东局势以及现货运价情况关注。 短期策略:短期外盘政策动荡,操作难度较大,各合约若要参与建议以 中长线为主。 套利策略: 关税发酵背景下, 可关注反套结构,窗口期较短,波动较大 长期策略： 建议风险偏好者可尝试2508合约跌至1600点以下轻仓试 多, 2510合约1200点以下轻仓试多,设置好止损。 跌涨停板:2504-2602合约调整为19%。 我司保证金：2504-2602合约调整为29%。 日内开仓限制: 2504-2602所有合约为100手。 元 IEI 财联社4月28日电，美国财政部外国资产控制办公室（OFAC）发表声明，宣布对向也门胡塞武装提供支持的三艘船只及其船主实施制裁。声明表示，胡塞 能 化 武装部署导弹、无人机和水雷袭击红海商业航运。声明称，胡塞武装还通过其控制的潜口运输货物，从中牟取暴利。 财联社4月29日电，自然资源部29日消息，一季度，沿海地方和涉海部门深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整推确全面 贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，扎实推动海洋经济高质量发展，海洋资源保供 ...

超配（维持） 交运板块新思 交通运输行业 交通运输行业深度报告 2025 年 4 月 30 日 分析师：邓升亮 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523050001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： dengshengliang@dgzq.com.cn 申万交通运输指数走势 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 深 度 研 究 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 全球冲突新形势下交运板块的新篇章。近期全球冲突进入新形势，我们 认为，当前全球地缘政治关系的影响在交通运输板块的影响可能会表现 出以下两个主要方向：（1）全球不确定性上升可能加剧市场的避险情绪 需求；（2）全球需求下降的预期与OPEC+意外增产相叠加，可能导致原 油成本下降，从而刺激对油价敏感的运输行业。基于2025年全球经济新 形势的变化，我们在战略层面明确了稳健与进攻两大投资方向：（1）全 球不确定性提升或放大避险需求，强化公路等基础设施板块类债属性的 投资需求， ...

在金融市场中，美元指数与金银价格的关系一直是投资者和分析师关注的焦点。传统观点认为二者存在 较为简单的反向联动，但深入研究后发现，它们之间呈现着复杂且非线性的关系。本文旨在深入剖析美 元指数与金银价格非线性关系的形成机制、影响因素，并通过实际案例和数据展示来揭示这种关系的独 特性，为投资者在复杂多变的金融环境中制定更精准的投资策略提供参考。 关键词 美元指数；金银价格；非线性关系；金融市场 一、引言 美元指数作为衡量美元在国际外汇市场汇率变化的一项综合指标，反映了美元对一揽子货币的整体强弱 程度。而金银，尤其是黄金和白银，不仅具有商品属性，还具备金融和货币属性，是重要的避险资产和 投资工具。长期以来，市场普遍认为美元指数与金银价格呈现反向走势，即美元指数上涨，金银价格下 跌；美元指数下跌，金银价格上升。然而，实际市场表现却并非总是如此简单，二者之间存在着更为复 杂和微妙的非线性关系。这种非线性关系不仅增加了市场预测的难度，也为投资者带来了新的机遇和挑 战。 二、美元指数与金银价格非线性关系的理论基础 2.1 货币属性与避险需求 黄金和白银自古以来就被视为货币的替代品，在全球经济不稳定或地缘政治冲突加剧时，投资 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the increasing complexity of investment decisions in the volatile financial markets of 2025, necessitating advanced analytical tools like Macro Global Markets for effective navigation through data [1] Market Trends and Analysis - The Macro Global Markets tool features a global policy simulator that captures the impact of central bank policy changes across 132 economies, breaking down the effects of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve into three phases: currency transmission (48 hours), bond market response (72 hours), and stock valuation restructuring (120 hours) [2] - The tool's "manufacturing GPS" capability utilizes 23 alternative data types, such as global port throughput and industrial electricity consumption, to predict manufacturing trends in emerging markets, with a lead time of 6-8 months [4] Strategic Insights - The "correlation matrix" function in the tool identifies hidden relationships in cross-market arbitrage, such as the correlation between the Brazilian real and the Norwegian krone rising from 0.32 to 0.81 when oil prices exceed $90 per barrel, aiding hedge funds in capturing arbitrage opportunities [5] - A unique three-layer defense mechanism in the "black swan warning system" scans media sentiment, analyzes shipping signal anomalies, and monitors dark web data to provide timely alternative route cost assessments when disruptions occur [5] User Guidance and Features - For new users, the "three-screen linked workstation" setup is recommended, which includes a U.S. Treasury yield curve, an industry rotation heatmap, and a commodity term structure monitor to stabilize market volatility [6] - Advanced users can activate the "Alpha Hunter" module, which integrates machine learning with fundamental analysis to generate decision trees based on specific investment themes, enhancing the precision of investment strategies [6] Practical Applications - The "data time machine" feature allows users to analyze historical events and their impacts, such as comparing the recent TSMC incident with past semiconductor disruptions to assess market implications [9] - The "volatility topography" function assists in risk management by simulating asset rebalancing paths under different interest rate scenarios, effectively controlling portfolio volatility during market fluctuations [9] - The Macro Global Markets tool is positioned as a comprehensive decision-making system that combines macro and micro perspectives, redefining market analysis in a new era of financial volatility [9]

王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | 贵金属日评20250428:美国对等关税暂停至7月8日,俄乌及美伊谈判未果印巴冲突再起 | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 较昨日变化 | 2025-04-21 | 2025-04-25 | 2025-04-24 | 收盘价 | 792. 20 | 787.20 | -17.86 | 805. 06 | -5.00 | | | | | | | 成交量 | 1125865.00 | -463, 193. 00 | 276, 678. 00 | 662672.00 | 385994.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | -31, 804. 00 | 166311.00 | 173030.00 | 198115.00 | -6, 719. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 15648.00 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Company Overview - The company discussed its performance for the year 2024, highlighting a continuation of positive trends established since 2022, with significant improvements in quality, efficiency, and scale [1] - The total cargo volume reached 46.56 million tons, with a turnover of 100.6 billion ton-kilometers [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 6.475 billion yuan and a total profit of 2.247 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.921 billion yuan, marking a historical high for the third consecutive year [1] Financial Performance - Total assets amounted to 12.927 billion yuan, with total liabilities at 1.95 billion yuan, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio of 15.08%, a decrease of 6.36 percentage points from the beginning of the year [1] - The total profit increased by 390 million yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate of 20.99% [1] - Revenue from the transportation segment increased by 109 million yuan, attributed to favorable market conditions in 2024 [1][2] - The company disposed of old assets, generating a profit of 251 million yuan from the sale of four refined oil vessels [2] Market Dynamics - The refined oil transportation market has seen an increase in prices due to overall industry growth [2] - The Singapore subsidiary contributed approximately 950 million yuan to net profit, with the refined oil team generating 3.75 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 57.92% of total revenue [3] - The average revenue per vessel in the international market has decreased significantly compared to the previous year, with a noted drop in freight rates in Q4 [6][7] Future Outlook - The international refined oil market is expected to experience fluctuations, with a gradual recovery anticipated in Q1 2025 [6][7] - The company plans to enhance its operational capacity by investing in new vessels, with a focus on MR (Medium Range) tankers [15] - The management emphasized the importance of adapting to geopolitical changes and market demands, particularly in light of sanctions affecting oil transportation [10][22] Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to modernize its fleet by retiring older vessels and investing in new builds, with a total investment of 3.5 billion yuan for 10 new vessels [16] - There is a strategic shift towards increasing operational efficiency and expanding into new markets, particularly in the western regions [15] - The management is committed to maintaining a healthy financial status while exploring new business opportunities in chemical and LNG transportation [18] Risks and Challenges - The company acknowledged potential challenges from increased supply in the refined oil market, which could impact pricing and profitability [20] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly sanctions against Russia and Iran, continue to pose risks to the transportation market [9][10] - The management expressed concerns about the aging global fleet and the need for compliance with evolving industry standards [23] Conclusion - Overall, the company demonstrated strong financial performance and strategic planning for future growth, while remaining vigilant about market risks and geopolitical factors that could influence operations [31][32]

能做的都做了，后续发展不再是一家公司所能决定的了。 TikTok 美国的停摆已经有充分的预兆，最早可以追溯到十多年前。 2012 年底，另一次美国总统大选，美国国会众议院情报委员会召开听证会，研究华为在美国做通信设备生 意是否危害国家安全。 华为积极应对。任正非亲自带领高管分别在深圳、香港接待了前美国总统卡特和一众美国议员。它的美国 公司花了上百万美元聘请律师游说，一位高级副总裁前往国会作证。结果虽然没有明确证据，但众议院情 报委员会依然裁定，华为对美国网络设施构成安全威胁。 听证会上，一位议员讲出了冲突的根本：只要有威胁的可能，国会就得做出反应，"不能像 9/11 那样，等 威胁成真再反应。" 文丨高洪浩 孙海宁 制图丨 黄帧昕 编辑丨黄俊杰 "抱歉，TikTok 现在无法使用。" 美国东部时间 1 月 19 日凌晨，当美国用户再打开 TikTok 时，只能看到 这一条消息，画面再也不能永远滑不到底了。 美国国会要求 TikTok"不卖就禁" 的法案如期生效。该法案涵盖所有字节、TikTok 运营的产品。同一时 间，Lemon8（图文社区）、CapCut（海外剪辑）、Lark（海外办公），甚至是沐瞳的游戏都 ...