套期保值
Search documents
国债期货日报:回购利率走高,国债期货涨跌分化-20250926
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 02:20
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The bond market sentiment is fragile. The recovery of risk appetite suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the increasing global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - Social financing scale is 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.56%; M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, with no month - on - month change; manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a growth rate of 0.20% [10]. - The US dollar index is 98.48, with a day - on - day increase of 0.63 and a growth rate of 0.64%; the offshore US dollar against the Chinese yuan is 7.1292, with a day - on - day increase of 0.010 and a growth rate of 0.14%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.58, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.38%; DR007 is 1.60, with a day - on - day increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 0.96%; R007 is 1.51, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.05 and a decline rate of 3.26%; the yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) for 3 months is 1.61, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.12%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.12% [11]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market The report provides multiple figures about the treasury bond futures market, including the closing price trend, price change rate, precipitation of funds, position ratio, net position ratio, long - short position ratio, spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, and treasury bond issuance [15][17][19]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals It provides figures on bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics and local government bond issuance [29]. 4. Spread Overview It includes figures on Shibor interest rate trends, yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) at maturity, cross - period spreads of treasury bond futures, and spreads between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [32][35]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [52][55]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures It provides figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [57][61]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides figures on the implied yield and treasury bond yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [64][66]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures It provides figures on the implied yield and treasury bond yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [71][77]. Strategy - Unilateral: As the repurchase rate rises, the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].
云南铜业:织密风险“防护网” 应对铜市新挑战
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-09-25 23:25
Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Copper achieved record production and improved innovation capabilities despite challenges such as tight raw material supply and historically low copper processing fees [1][2] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Yunnan Copper reported operating revenue of 88.913 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.27% - The total profit reached 1.895 billion yuan, up 2.94% year-on-year - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.317 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 24.32% [1] Market Challenges - The copper industry faces significant pressure due to fluctuating U.S. tariff policies, market price differences, and limited copper concentrate supply [2] - The low processing fees have disrupted profit balance across the industry chain, exacerbated by volatile copper prices [2][3] - The price of London copper dropped by approximately 2000 USD/ton in early April due to U.S. tariff policies, leading to a rapid reversal in price differences between London and Shanghai copper [2] Operational Strategies - Yunnan Copper has actively engaged in the futures market for hedging and adjusted procurement strategies to mitigate market volatility [2][3] - The company has focused on cost reduction, efficiency improvement, and maximizing the profit potential of by-products like sulfuric acid [3] - The company achieved a cathode copper production of 779,400 tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 53.22% [3] Pricing Mechanism - The futures market plays a crucial role in pricing copper trades, with long-term contracts typically only specifying processing fees [4] - The pricing mechanism combines futures pricing with adjustments for quality, region, and other factors through a premium/discount system [4] Hedging Optimization - Yunnan Copper aims to enhance its hedging strategies to protect asset value and ensure stable operations amid market fluctuations [5] - The company tailors its risk management strategies based on annual market conditions, focusing on price decline risks for its mining operations [5][6] - The optimization includes adjusting marketing policies, managing positions dynamically, and ensuring adequate margin preparations [6] Risk Management - Effective risk management involves "current closure," where raw materials and products are traded at the same benchmark price to mitigate price risks [7] - The company emphasizes the importance of real-time hedging operations to minimize risks associated with price fluctuations over time [7] - By leveraging the transparent futures market, Yunnan Copper can strategically manage risk exposure and achieve profit objectives [7]
贵州首次生猪交割背后的金融赋能记
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-09-25 18:08
9月25日,贵州省黔西南布依族苗族自治州贞丰县贞丰富之源养殖场,一批经过严格检验、称重和洗消 的生猪即将启程。这场看似普通的生猪贸易背后,是贵州首次生猪交割。 黔山秀水间,一场金融与实体的"握手",开始改写贵州生猪产业的传统叙事。期货工具犹如一股活水, 正悄然浸润着这片土地的养殖产业。 贵州富之源的期货之路 在自身应用生猪期货避险的同时,贵州富之源还借助期货和衍生品进行交易模式革新,提供"价格兜 底"和"期货+订单"等增值服务,吸引和绑定中小养殖户,增强客户黏性,拓展业务渠道。 贵州富之源科技(集团)有限公司(简称贵州富之源)是一家贵州本土的大型现代化农牧企业,已在贵 州建立了三大饲料基地和七大养殖基地,形成了前连原料供应、饲料生产基地,后通养殖、肉食品加工 基地,以家庭农场为纽带与村集体、低收入户建立利益链接机制的一条龙生猪养殖全产业链新模式。 据了解,贵州富之源与期货市场结缘于2021年,即生猪期货上市首年。贵州富之源最初是通过"保险 +期货"间接接触和了解期货工具的。在中信期货贵州分公司等专业机构的帮助下,贵州富之源开始系 统性地学习期货知识,理解风险管理的必要性。2023年以来,贵州富之源逐步完善期货 ...
云南铜业(000878) - 2025年9月24日云南铜业投资者关系活动记录表
2025-09-25 07:42
证券代码:000878 证券简称:云南铜业 云南铜业股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号:2025-15 | 投资者关 | 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 ☑ | | --- | --- | | 系活动类 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | 别 | □现场调研 □其他 | | 活动参与 | 嘉实基金 刘杰、肖觅、陈黎明、胡宇飞、沈玉梁、陈景诚、李嘉禾、刘宸垚, | | 人员 | 长江证券 肖勇、许红远、钟永婷。 | | 时间 | 年 月 日 13:30—15:00 2025 9 24 | | 地点 | 公司 会议室 3120 | | 形式 | 座谈交流 | | | 财务总监、董事会秘书:高洪波 | | 上市公司 | 财务部(资本运营部、证券事务部)经理:刘八妹 | | 参加人员 | 证券事务代表:孙萍 | | 姓名 | 装备部(数字化管理部)业务经理:毛正斌 | | | 财务部(资本运营部、证券事务部)业务经理:岳圣文 | | | 一、公司基本情况介绍 | | | 云南铜业于 1998 年在深交所挂牌上市,主要业务涵盖了铜的勘探、采选、 | | | 冶炼,贵金属和稀散金属 ...
为产业培养风险管理复合型人才
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-09-25 02:06
上期所联合中钢协举办深化服务钢铁企业专项系列培训 唐祖君表示,我国钢铁行业正处于转型升级的攻坚期、绿色低碳发展的关键期,也是国际竞争格局重塑 的重要窗口期。期货市场作为现代金融体系的重要组成部分,蕴含着助力钢铁行业风险管理的巨大能 量,有望成为钢铁企业管控成本、降低风险的有力工具。中钢协始终把"服务行业、培育人才"作为核心 职责,本次培训内容"实"、师资"实"、形式"实",是结合行业需求、政策导向与企业痛点设计的专业培 训课程。希望学员珍惜学习机会,学用结合,为增强钢铁产业链韧性、推动行业高质量发展贡献智慧。 陆丰表示,钢铁工业作为国民经济的重要基础产业和建设现代化强国的重要支撑,正经历从"规模扩 张"向"质量提升"的关键转型期,可持续发展空间仍然广阔。近年来,在中国证监会的坚强领导下、在 中钢协的大力指导下,上期所深入贯彻落实习近平总书记考察上期所重要指示精神,围绕企业所关切的 交割品牌、交割仓库、合约连续性等问题广泛调研,并采取了有针对性的一揽子政策措施,推动钢铁期 货高质量发展。上期所将继续扎根实体,锚定加快建成世界一流交易所的目标,全面深化钢铁期货高质 量发展专项行动,助力我国钢铁工业稳健运行。 据期 ...
授企业风险管理之道 助实体企业提质增效——第六期宁波地区大宗商品产业培训班在甬举办
Zhong Zheng Wang· 2025-09-25 01:49
Core Insights - The training program aims to enhance the risk management capabilities of enterprises in the Ningbo region by leveraging futures markets and derivative tools [1][4] - The event is supported by various financial institutions and aims to strengthen the understanding of futures market functions among local businesses [1][2] Group 1: Event Overview - The sixth training session for the commodity industry in Ningbo was launched on September 23, with over a hundred participants from listed companies, prospective listings, and small to medium enterprises [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange emphasized the increasing volatility of commodity prices and the urgent need for effective risk management among enterprises [1][2] Group 2: Market Development - The Chinese futures market has seen significant development, with a variety of futures and options products covering major sectors of the national economy, serving as pricing benchmarks and risk management tools [2] - The China Futures Market Monitoring Center aims to contribute to the safety of supply chains and the high-quality development of the real economy [2] Group 3: Risk Management Insights - The training included discussions on the importance of risk management for enterprises, with insights into economic cycles, financial cycles, and industry supply-demand dynamics [2][3] - Various case studies, including those on iron ore and coking coal, were presented to illustrate the application of hedging strategies [2] Group 4: Derivative Tools and Strategies - The session covered the concept and historical development of options markets, highlighting their role as essential tools for enterprises to manage risks and optimize operations [3] - Different trading models based on basis trading were introduced, showcasing how they can address pricing discrepancies and improve procurement efficiency [3] Group 5: Future Directions - Participants expressed that the training enhanced their understanding of futures and derivative tools, which is crucial for improving their competitive edge in a volatile market [4] - The Ningbo Securities and Futures Industry Association plans to continue collaborating with regulatory bodies to foster a conducive environment for the integration of finance and industry [4]
第六期宁波地区大宗商品产业培训班成功举办
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Zhi Sheng· 2025-09-25 01:48
参加培训的企业代表均表示,通过本次系统性的理论授课、前沿的案例分析及深度的同业研讨进一步提 升了企业对期货及衍生品工具的认知水平和应用能力,对于引导树立正确的风险管理理念,有助于企业 在复杂多变的市场环境中增强抗风险能力和核心竞争力。 宁波市证券期货业协会相关负责人也表示,将以本期培训为新的起点,持续深化服务实体经济内涵,积 极联合证监会系统单位等各方力量,共同搭建更广阔的合作平台,为促进宁波期现市场互联互通,营造 良好的产融结合发展环境。 大连商品交易所相关业务负责人在活动中表示,近年来,大宗商品价格波动加剧,实体企业风险管理需 求迫切。大商所在持续完善产品体系、不断丰富市场服务模式、深化场外建设、加快高水平对外开放等 方面努力为实体经济健康发展保驾护航。宁波的经济结构与大商所上市品种关联度较高,一直以来都是 大商所产业服务的重要区域之一。举办本次产业培训活动,就是希望在地方政府部门的支持下,能与证 监会系统单位一起,帮助实体企业进一步认识期货市场的功能与作用,依托衍生品工具强化风险管理能 力、提升企业管理水平,积极为宁波实体经济的高质量发展助力赋能。 中国期货市场监控中心相关部门负责人在致辞中提到,近年来 ...
上期所联合中钢协举办深化服务钢铁企业专项系列培训 为产业培养风险管理复合型人才
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-09-24 19:55
Group 1 - The training program for steel industry professionals is aimed at enhancing risk management and cost control through the use of financial derivatives [1][2] - The steel industry in China is undergoing a critical transformation from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement," with significant sustainable development potential [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) is committed to high-quality development of steel futures, implementing targeted policies based on extensive research into industry needs [2] Group 2 - The training includes three sessions scheduled from September to November, focusing on innovation, risk management, and compliance in the steel sector [2] - Experts from the steel and futures industries will provide insights on green and low-carbon development, as well as practical applications of futures and derivatives [2] - The program aims to equip participants with the knowledge to effectively utilize futures and options for hedging, thereby enhancing risk management capabilities within the steel supply chain [2]
楚江新材:公司铜基材料板块采用“原材料+加工费”的盈利模式
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-24 00:41
Core Viewpoint - Chujiang New Materials (002171.SZ) utilizes a "raw materials + processing fee" profit model in its copper-based materials segment, ensuring stable processing manufacturing fees while mitigating the impact of copper price fluctuations through strict hedging tools [2] Group 1 - The company earns relatively stable processing fees from its copper-based materials segment [2] - The company employs hedging tools to reduce the impact of copper price volatility on its profitability [2]
纯苯,苯乙烯风险管理日报-20250923
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 11:21
纯苯-苯乙烯风险管理日报 2025/9/23 戴一帆(投资咨询证号:Z0015428) 黄思婕(期货从业证号:F03130744) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 2、9月新增浙石化两套60万吨苯乙烯装置检修,9月苯乙烯供应继续收紧。本周多次传出有苯乙烯装置降负或 提前检修的消息,有待核实。 | | 价格区间预测(月度) | 当前波动率(20日滚动) | 当前波动率历史百分位(3年) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纯苯 | 5600-6200 | / | / | | 苯乙烯 | 6800-7400 | 29.40% | 85.8% | source: 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高,担心苯乙烯价格下 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失,可以根据企业的 ...