□ 理解今年经济需把握"夯实基础、全面发力、战略主动"三重导向 □ 在投资端有三个关键方向：首先是与未来新兴产业相关的持续投入，有望带来新的增长点；其次 是"新"新基建，有望提升经济系统效率；最后是绿色转型相关投入 ◎刘禹希 记者 严晓菲 2026年是"十五五"开局之年，中国经济如何在复杂环境中稳步前行？申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟在 接受上海证券报记者专访时表示，理解今年经济需把握"夯实基础、全面发力"的双重导向。他认为，服 务消费、"新"新基建与绿色投资将是影响全年经济走向的三大关键。 "夯实基础"与"全面发力"并重 "2026年是'十五五'开局之年，理解这一年的经济与政策，首先要看规划建议的一些重要表述。"赵伟表 示，其中"夯实基础"和"全面发力"八个字，尤其值得关注。 赵伟表示，"夯实基础"指的是对"十四五"以来所构建的产业体系、市场基础和制度框架的巩固与深化。 而"全面发力"意味着在发展与改革相关领域，政策推进与落实的速度将会加快。 此外，赵伟表示还要高度重视"战略主动"这一导向。国家在政策层面的主动性将显著增强，主要体现在 两个方面：一是统筹国内经济工作与国际经贸斗争的主动性将显著提高；二是开放相 ...

2026 年 2 月 4 日 总量研究 从地方两会看稳增长"路线图" ——2025 年中央经济工作会议精神学习第二篇 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 充分挖掘经济潜能，苦练内功应对挑战—— 2025 年中央经济工作会议精神学习 （2025-12-12） 积极有为，实现"十五五"良好开局—— 2025 年 12 月政治局会议精神学习（2025- 12-09） "十五五"高水平对外开放的战略升级—— 《"十五五"规划》系列报告四（2025- 11-19） 理解"十五五"规划的三个定量指标—— 《"十五五"规划》系列报告三（2025- 10-29） 坚持高质量发展，续写奇迹新篇章——二十 届四中全会公报精神学习暨《"十五五"规 划》系列报告二（2025-10-24） "十五五"规划的三条主线、五个猜想—— 《"十五五"规划》系列报告一（2025- 09-28） 巩固经济和资本市场回稳向好势头 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" rating, with a focus on service consumption, beauty care, IP derivatives, and new consumption sectors such as gold and jewelry [6][27]. Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of a government plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, focusing on key areas such as transportation services, domestic services, and cultural tourism [3][25]. - The beauty care sector is expected to see significant profit growth, with companies like Shanghai Jahwa and Huaxi Bio projecting substantial increases in net profits for 2025 [4][25]. - The travel sector anticipates a 16.2% year-on-year increase in domestic travel, with 6.30 trillion yuan in spending, indicating a strong recovery in consumer spending [5][26]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - During the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026, the retail, social services, and beauty care sectors experienced declines of 4.18%, 3.45%, and 3.76% respectively, ranking 26th, 23rd, and 25th among 31 primary industries [16][18]. Key Industry Events and Information - The State Council issued a plan to enhance service consumption, proposing three support policies aimed at stimulating development in various service sectors [3][25]. - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism launched a national cultural and tourism consumption month, featuring around 30,000 events and distributing over 360 million yuan in consumer vouchers [3][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes a focus on service consumption and highlights specific companies for investment, including Ruoyuchen, Maogeping, Shangmei, Pop Mart, Chaohongji, and Laopu Gold [6][27].

T a [ 行业研究|可选消费 证券研究报告 可选消费行业周报、月报 2026 年 02 月 04 日 b l [Table_Title] 国务院印发《加快培育服务消费新增长点工 e _ M 作方案》，HBN 母公司港交所递表 ——商社美护行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 市场表现 ] 本周（2026.01.26-2026.01.30），商贸零售/社会服务/美容护理分别- 4.18%/-3.45%/-3.76%，在 31 个一级行业中排名第 26/23/25，同期上 证综指-0.44%，深证成指-1.62%，沪深 300+0.08%。 本周行业重点事件及资讯 国务院办公厅印发《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》。提出 3 方面支持政策，包括聚焦交通服务、家政服务、网络视听服务、旅居 服务、汽车后市场服务、入境消费等重点领域激发发展活力；聚焦演 出服务、体育赛事服务、情绪式体验式服务等潜力领域培育发展动能。 1 月 29 日，文化和旅游部在福建省泉州市正式启动 2026 年全国春节 文化和旅游消费月。消费月将从 1 月底持续至 3 月初，其间各地将推 出丰富多彩的应季文旅产品和活动，举办约 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the new consumption sector performed well, with service consumption policies expected to continue catalyzing growth in 2026 [2][27] - In 2025, the overall performance of the optional consumption sector was weak, but sub-sectors like new consumption showed significant gains, particularly in the first half of the year [16][21] - The retail sales of consumer goods grew moderately, with service retail growth outpacing that of goods retail, indicating a shift towards service consumption [21][27] Group 2 - The tourism sector is expected to benefit from extended holiday periods and improved vacation policies, with companies like Trip.com and Tongcheng Travel being key focuses [3] - The hotel market is showing signs of recovery, with a narrowing decline in RevPAR and increasing leisure demand, highlighting companies like Jin Jiang Hotels and Huazhu Group [3] - The duty-free sector is experiencing a boost from new policies, particularly in Hainan, with a focus on high-end consumption recovery [3] Group 3 - The cosmetics industry saw a slight growth of 6.18% in 2025, with domestic brands continuing to gain market share [4][30] - The medical beauty market is projected to reach approximately 366.6 billion in 2025, with a K-shaped consumption differentiation emerging [4][30] - Innovations in core ingredients and the integration of biotechnology are driving brand growth in the cosmetics sector [4][36] Group 4 - The IP derivative market is expanding due to a flourishing supply of IP and commercial operations, with domestic policies expected to further mature the industry ecosystem [5] - Key players in the IP space include Shanghai Film, Light Media, and Pop Mart, with a focus on both domestic and international market expansion [5] Group 5 - The gold and jewelry sector saw a cumulative growth of 12.78% in retail sales from January to December, with a focus on brand premium capabilities and international expansion [6][9] - The rise of "self-wearing" scenarios is driving gold jewelry sales, with brands like Chao Hong Ji and Lao Pu Gold being highlighted for their international strategies [9]

孙立坚（复旦大学金融研究中心主任） 消费是拉动经济增长的第一动力，服务消费作为消费升级的关键载体，正在成为中国经济增长的"结构 性变量"。当前，我国人均GDP已突破1.3万美元，居民消费需求从"物质型"向"服务型"加速转型，2025 年居民人均服务性消费支出占比达46.1%，服务零售额增速持续高于商品零售额。当前，加快培育服务 消费新增长点，推动服务消费提质扩容，既是顺应居民消费升级的必然选择，更是增强经济内生动力、 实现产业结构优化升级的战略突破口。本文立足"为何是它、怎么做"的逻辑主线，系统剖析服务消费成 为经济新动能的深层逻辑，直面现实堵点，把握多维机遇，提出打造现代化的服务消费供给体系，为激 活服务消费增长潜力、赋能经济高质量发展提供系统性思路。 三重逻辑：服务消费为何是关键 服务消费能成为中国经济高质量发展的新动能，是居民需求升级、经济结构转型、政策持续赋能三重逻 辑叠加的结果，兼具民生与经济双重属性，是推动发展与改善民生的重要抓手。 居民消费升级为服务消费筑牢需求根基，场景经济释放乘数效应。随着居民可支配收入增长，消费需求 从"满足基本生活"向"追求品质体验"转变，服务消费需求弹性持续提升。刚性领 ...

记者丨周潇枭 编辑丨张星 近日，经济大省陆续召开2026年地方两会，2026年增长目标和重点工作随之揭晓。 21世纪经济报道记者梳理发现， 四川、湖北2026年经济增长目标定在5.5%左右，浙江、山东 定在5%以上，江苏、河南、上海、北京定在5%左右，广东定在4.5%—5%。总体来看，经济 大省2026年经济增长目标在5%左右。 与此同时，部分省份还披露了"十五五"时期的经济增长目标。 广东、江苏、河南、上海等省 份预计"十五五"期间GDP年均增长5%左右，北京预计"十五五"期间GDP年均增速在4.5%— 5%。 经济大省2026年重点工作包括提振消费、扩大有效投资、发展培育新质生产力、着力稳定房 地产市场等。尤值一提的是，2026年各省仍将加大人工智能相关投入，包括大力建设算力中 心、加强关键技术攻关、加强垂直大模型布局、推进人工智能+的行业应用等。 图片来源：新华社 经济增长目标定在5%左右 广东2025年GDP规模达到14.58万亿元，经济总量连续37年居全国首位。 广东明确"十五五"时期主要目标和重点任务：地区生产总值年均增长5%左 右，高质量发展取 得显著成效，科技自立自强水平大幅提高等。广东202 ...

Core Viewpoint - Service consumption is becoming a structural variable in China's economic growth, driven by the transformation of consumer demand from material to service-oriented, with a projected increase in per capita service consumption expenditure to 46.1% by 2025 [2] Group 1: Reasons for Service Consumption as a Key Driver - The combination of resident demand upgrades, economic structure transformation, and continuous policy support creates a robust foundation for service consumption [3] - The aging population and the growing number of young children in China are driving demand for essential services like elderly care and childcare, with the domestic housekeeping industry expected to create over 30 million jobs by 2024 [3] - Experience-based consumption in sectors like tourism and health is expected to generate significant economic activity, with leisure tourism revenue projected to reach 450 billion yuan during the 2025-2026 winter season [3] Group 2: Economic Structure and Trust - The service sector has become the largest industry in China's economy, with its unique non-standard nature influencing consumer behavior and market dynamics [4] - Establishing a unified service standard and a reliable credit system is essential for enhancing service quality and consumer trust, which are critical for unlocking potential demand [4] Group 3: Policy Support and Institutional Framework - The policy framework has shifted from merely stimulating demand to a dual focus on supply and demand collaboration, with significant improvements in areas like medical and educational market access [4] - By 2025, the sales of tax refund goods for outbound travelers are expected to increase by 95.9%, indicating a growing emphasis on enhancing consumer infrastructure [4] Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite rapid growth in service consumption, issues such as structural mismatches in supply and demand, quality concerns, and consumer confidence need to be addressed [5] - The integration of AI and big data in service consumption can help overcome challenges related to non-standard services, enhancing precision and efficiency in service delivery [5] Group 5: Modernization of Supply System - The modernization of the service supply system is crucial, focusing on making services affordable, accessible, and trustworthy [6] - Emphasizing the development of a professional workforce in essential service areas like elderly care and childcare is vital for meeting growing demand [6] Group 6: Institutional Improvement and Market Integration - The establishment of a unified national market can reduce transaction costs and facilitate the replication of quality services across regions [7] - Continuous efforts to optimize the business environment for private enterprises and enhance service standards are necessary for fostering a safe and fair consumption environment [7] Group 7: Open Cooperation and Trade Upgrading - Promoting high standards in service trade and enhancing cross-border payment systems can lower costs and improve efficiency in service consumption [8] - The focus on integrating regional economies and enhancing service resource collaboration can lead to improved supply efficiency and quality [8] Group 8: Focus on Livelihood and Essential Services - The aging population is shifting service consumption from optional to essential, creating stable demand for healthcare and related services [9] - Strengthening social security systems and expanding coverage can enhance consumer confidence and support service consumption growth [9] Group 9: Long-term Economic Growth - Service consumption is positioned as a new engine for economic growth, with significant potential for expansion and development [10] - The successful transformation of service consumption into a long-term economic driver depends on building a modern supply system that ensures quality, trust, and accessibility [10]

21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 北京报道 近日，经济大省陆续召开2026年地方两会，2026年增长目标和重点工作随之揭晓。 21世纪经济报道记者梳理发现，四川、湖北2026年经济增长目标定在5.5%左右，浙江、山东定在5%以上，江苏、河南、上海、北京定在5%左 右，广东定在4.5%-5%。总体来看，经济大省2026年经济增长目标在5%左右。 与此同时，部分省份还披露了"十五五"时期的经济增长目标。广东、江苏、河南、上海等省份预计"十五五"期间GDP年均增长5%左右，北京 预计"十五五"期间GDP年均增速在4.5%-5%。 经济大省2026年重点工作包括提振消费、扩大有效投资、发展培育新质生产力、着力稳定房地产市场等。尤值一提的是，2026年各省仍将加大 人工智能相关投入，包括大力建设算力中心、加强关键技术攻关、加强垂直大模型布局、推进人工智能+的行业应用等。 经济增长目标定在5%左右 广东2025年GDP规模达到14.58万亿元，经济总量连续37年居全国首位。 广东明确"十五五"时期主要目标和重点任务：地区生产总值年均增长5%左右，高质量发展取得显著成效，科技自立自强水平大幅提高等。广 东2026年主要预期目标是 ...

聚焦重要场景多点发力 商务部数据显示，2025年，全国服务零售额同比增长5.5%，居民人均服务性消费支出同比增长 4.5%，占居民人均消费支出的比重达46.1%。 为优化和扩大服务供给，《方案》聚焦重要消费场景提出了多项举措。 比如，在家政服务方面，《方案》明确支持符合条件的家政服务企业创新服务模式、探索智慧化场 景、拓展居家养老服务；在网络视听服务方面，《方案》提出健全支持政策体系，促进超高清视频、微 短剧等网络视听服务市场有序竞争、创新发展；在体育赛事服务方面，《方案》提出打造一批知名精品 赛事、职业联赛、体育竞赛表演、青少年体育赛事、老年体育赛事、乡村文体赛事品牌…… 人民日报海外版记者 王俊岭 服务消费具有消费频次高、乘数效应强、增长可持续等特点，在扩大内需、增进民生福祉中发挥着 重要作用。日前，国务院办公厅印发《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》（以下简称《方案》）， 从激发重点领域发展活力、培育潜力领域发展动能、加强支持保障等3方面提出12条政策举措，促进服 务消费提质惠民，为经济高质量发展提供有力支撑。 洪勇认为，《方案》围绕交通、家政、网络视听、旅居、汽车后市场、入境消费等服务消费重点领 域精 ...