Group 1 - The restaurant stocks are performing well, with notable increases: Jiumaojiu (09922) up 4.82%, Haidilao (06862) up 4.14%, Yum China (09987) up 2.63%, Xiaobai (00520) up 2.50%, Xiaocaiyuan (00999) up 2.54%, and Nayuki (02150) up 1.92% [1][2] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month [1][2] - The rise in CPI is primarily driven by a turnaround in food prices, with household appliances and clothing prices increasing by 4.9% and 2.0%, respectively, while prices for air tickets, domestic services, and dining out rose by 7.0%, 2.4%, and 1.2% [1][2] Group 2 - Wanlian Securities forecasts that the share of domestic service consumption in total household consumption has recovered to 46%, nearing the critical structural threshold of 50%, indicating a potential rapid growth phase for the industry [1][2] - Service consumption is expected to become a key driver for domestic demand and consumption recovery, offering higher growth elasticity and user stickiness compared to goods consumption due to its personalized interaction and unique experiences [1][2] - The report suggests focusing on chain restaurants and tea beverage companies, highlighting that those with brand advantages and supply chain strengths will have greater development potential, particularly those with scale effects and performance elasticity [1][2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [9] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the restaurant industry is expected to benefit significantly from ongoing service consumption policies aimed at boosting overall domestic demand [12][15] - The restaurant sector's revenue is projected to account for 12% of total social retail sales by 2024, showing a higher growth elasticity compared to the overall retail sector [12][28] - Japanese restaurant valuations are experiencing a premium, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements alongside multi-format integration [12][79] Summary by Sections 1. Service Consumption Policies - The report highlights that service consumption policies are being reinforced, with specific measures targeting the restaurant sector as a core component of consumption stimulation [15][19] - Various regions are expanding the issuance of dining vouchers, which are expected to enhance consumer spending in the restaurant industry [15][19] 2. Restaurant Sector Performance - The restaurant sector is showing a recovery in its fundamentals, with a notable increase in revenue share within the social retail sector [28] - The growth rates for restaurant revenue are forecasted at 20% for 2023 and 5% for 2024, outpacing the overall retail sector growth [28][12] 3. Japanese Restaurant Valuations - The report notes that the Japanese restaurant sector is characterized by high valuation premiums, with leading companies achieving significant stock price increases [79][80] - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for top Japanese restaurant companies is above 25X, indicating strong market confidence [80] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong operational capabilities that can navigate through economic cycles, such as Yum China and Haidilao, as well as those in expansion phases like Xiaocaiyuan [12][79]

银河证券认为，预计2026年服务消费将有明显变化：相比于商品消费，机构更看好服务消费的改善预 期，近期的相关政策对服务消费重视度明显提升，特别是清理消费领域不合理限制措施是释放服务消费 需求的有效方式，有望逐步见效。 港股消费ETF（513230）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，一键打包互联网电商龙头+新消费，成分股近 乎囊括港股消费的各个领域，包括泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、名创优品等新消费龙头，又包含腾讯、快手、 阿里巴巴、小米等互联网电商龙头，科技+消费属性突出。 12月12日，港股消费板块早盘持续走强，港股消费ETF（513230）现涨近1%，其持仓股中，海底捞、 老铺黄金、名创优品、巨子生物、百胜中国等均涨超2.5%，下跌方面，思摩尔国际、雅迪控股、中国 儒意、长城汽车、哔哩哔哩等逆势下跌。 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京召开。会议确定明年经济工作要坚持内需主导，建设强大国 内市场；深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划；扩大优质商品和服务供给优化"两 新"政策实施；清理消费领域不合理限制措施，释放服务消费潜力；推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加中央 预算内投资规模，优化实施"两重"项目，优化 ...

扩大服务消费是提振消费、扩大内需的重要抓手。 "我们将大力培育服务消费新增长点，比如旅居、邮轮游艇、体育赛事等领域，推进先行先试，培育优 质品牌，清理限制性措施，为服务消费发展注入新动能。"商务部部长王文涛此前表示。 重庆发布《进一步清理消费领域限制性举措持续扩大消费若干措施》，着力破除二手车流通交易信息不 对称、医疗领域隐性门槛限制等堵点卡点；海南聚焦商品消费、服务消费、新型消费等领域，公开征集 存在的限制性情况以及优化措施的意见建议……当前，多地正加快推动清理限制措施，优化消费环境， 进一步激发出消费动能。 （文章来源：新华社） 新华社北京12月11日电（记者王雨萧、黄韬铭）12月10日至11日举行的中央经济工作会议部署明年经济 工作时提出，清理消费领域不合理限制措施，释放服务消费潜力。 王文涛表示，将坚持"对外开放、对内放开"，以放宽准入、业态融合为重点扩大服务消费。实施服务消 费提质惠民行动，健全服务消费"1+N"政策措施体系，实施好已经出台的38项政策措施，推动制定出台 促进铁路与旅游融合发展、家政服务业高质量发展等政策文件。 "当前外部环境急剧变化，增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用，是加快构建新发展格 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 服务消费提振核心 CPI 2025 年 11 月通胀点评 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 11 日 | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | --- | --- | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 全球资本开支仍是出口主线：11 月进出口 | 2025-12-10 | | --- | --- | | 点评 | | | 12 月鹰 ...

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 12 11 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 11 月 CPI 涨幅扩大，PPI 降幅小幅走阔 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】可选消费亮点不少—CPI 三连升的背后——20251210 【固定收益】菜价推升 CPI——20251210 ◼ 研究视点 【电力】新能源新格局：解码 19 省机制电价竞价结果——20251210 【宏观】可选消费亮点不少—CPI 三连升的背后 作者 | 分析师 | 张一鸣 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680522070009 | | | | | 邮箱：zhangyiming@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 通信 | 14.0% | 19.3% | 91.1% | | 综合 | 6.4% | 5.9% | 46.2% | | 国防军工 | 3.9% | 4.9% | 15.1% | | 轻工制造 | 2.1% | 3.3% | 10.6% | | 机械设备 | 1.6% | 4.3% ...

● 本报记者 胡雨 从中共中央政治局会议明确"持续扩大内需、优化供给"，到日前六部门联合印发旨在进一步释放消费潜 力的政策文件，再到地方出台支持消费的惠民政策，近期与促进消费、提振内需相关的政策密集出台， 在提振居民消费预期的同时，也对大消费板块行情向好提供了政策层面的助力。 临近年底消费旺季，从中央到相关部委再到地方，一系列旨在扩大内需和提振消费的政策红利持续释 放，市场对增量政策的预期也在不断增强：日前工业和信息化部等六部门联合印发《关于增强消费品供 需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》，明确到2027年，形成3个万亿级消费领域和10个千亿级消费热 点，并从5方面部署了19项重点任务；商务部副部长盛秋平12月9日表示，"十五五"时期，要把零售业作 为培育完整内需体系、做强国内大循环的关键着力点，推动行业转向品质驱动、服务驱动，实现高质量 发展；新疆乌鲁木齐市推出"雪假畅玩六条"惠民政策，推出多类型文旅产品，并搭配实施多重优惠。 对于提升消费率可能出台的增量政策，广发证券首席经济学家郭磊认为，短期可能包括延续并扩大直接 补贴及消费贷贴息、清理现存消费限制、改善一般物价环境等；中期视角下，加快消费税改革、推动消 ...

近期，与促进消费、提振内需相关的政策密集出台，在提振居民消费预期同时，也给大消费板块行情向 好提供了助力。 业内人士认为，延续并扩大直接补贴及消费贷贴息、改善物价等，有望成为短期内值得期待的扩消费政 策；从投资角度出发，消费行业呈现底部特征，基本面触底修复构成股价"催化剂"，具备规模效应且业 绩弹性突出的连锁餐饮与新茶饮企业、赛事运营与相关服务领域的体育公司、具备稀缺IP价值并能持续 转化粉丝经济的演艺运营商等细分标的值得关注。 政策红利不断释放 在中国银河证券首席经济学家、研究院院长章俊看来，未来经济工作需要促进形成更多由内需主导、消 费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式，在财政支出方向上，"以旧换新"政策有望延续并更多向服务消费领 域倾斜，2026年推动更多资金资源投资于人、服务民生这一政策导向或会继续强化。 临近年底消费旺季，从中央到相关部委再到地方，一系列旨在扩大内需和提振消费的政策红利持续释 放，市场对增量政策的预期也在不断增强。 两大维度布局消费板块 在继续促进商品消费的同时，服务消费或成为下一步发力的重点。 结合对国内消费结构的分析，万联证券社会服务行业分析师叶柏良认为，服务消费行业预计将迈入快速 增 ...

江苏区域创新能力跃升至全国第二，特别是基础研究取得新的突破，苏州实验室升级为国家实验室，五年来共有6项成果入选"中国科学十大进展"。与"十 三五"末相比，全省高新技术企业数量增长超70%，近九成的专利授权由企业创造、超八成的科技平台和高层次人才都在企业。制造业高质量发展指数连 续五年全国领先，国家先进制造业集群数量居全国第一。动力电池、新型电力装备、集成电路、节能环保、生物医药、软件、海工装备、轨道交通装备等 战略性新兴产业规模位居全国第一。全省未来产业核心企业总数超3100家，营收规模超7500亿元，占战略性新兴产业比重约10%左右。其中，合成生物、 新型储能、氢能等产业整体发展水平全国领先。"江苏制造"叫得更响：从C919大飞机的关键部件，到全球领先的盾构机；从新能源汽车到智能家电，江 苏制造的身影已经遍布全球。 江豚、东方白鹳……珍稀物种齐聚江苏 江苏做好"区域互补、跨江融合、南北联动"大文章。长江经济带和长三角一体化发展联动推进，比如说长江江苏段只占长江通航里程的1/7、承担的货运 量占到了70%，长三角生态绿色一体化发展示范区成为跨区域协作的生动样板。南北结对帮扶，差距不断缩小。统筹推进新型城镇化和 ...

Market Overview - Overall asset performance shows commodities outperforming equities, with the Korean stock market leading gains[4] - MSCI global index increased by 0.6%, but growth momentum has significantly slowed compared to previous weeks[5] - The yield curve for Chinese bonds is steepening, indicating a "bear steepening" trend, while U.S. bonds are experiencing a "bull steepening" trend[6] Commodity and Currency Trends - 10 out of 13 major commodities recorded price increases, with COMEX silver rising by 101.9% year-to-date[7] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.5%, with the euro and pound appreciating by 0.4% and 0.8% respectively; the dollar has depreciated by 8.8% since the beginning of the year[7] Consumer and Industrial Insights - Service consumption has improved year-on-year, with Shanghai Disneyland's visitor index up by 75% compared to last year[10] - Real estate transactions in major cities have seen significant declines, with new home sales down by 32.5% year-on-year[30] Financial Sector Developments - As of November 2025, the total net asset value of public funds reached 36 trillion yuan, with equity funds increasing by 1.55%[24] - The performance evaluation of the investment banking sector is shifting towards enhancing investor experience[23] Company-Specific Highlights - Traffic Bank's net profit growth is projected at 2.3% for 2025, with a target price adjustment to 8.58 yuan based on a 0.72x PB valuation[34] - Didi's EBITA is expected to be 46.0 billion yuan in 2025, with a target market value of 234.7 billion yuan[39]