Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the expansion of service consumption policies in China, emphasizing the steady growth of the consumer market and the optimization of consumption structure [1] - The Vice Minister of Commerce, Sheng Qiuping, noted that service consumption has become a significant driving force for the growth of the consumer market in recent years [1]

宏观日报 | 2025-09-17 关注下游扩大服务消费政策 中观事件总览 生产行业： 1）9月16日，2025腾讯全球数字生态大会在深圳举行，会上公布多项AI技术和产品最新进展，并宣布 全面开放腾讯AI落地能力及优势场景。面对各界关注的算力问题，腾讯集团副总裁、腾讯云总裁邱跃鹏宣布，目 前腾讯已经全面适配主流的国产芯片，并积极参与和回馈开源社区。与此同时，软硬件协同全栈优化是腾讯云的 长期战略投入，通过异构计算平台的软件能力，整合不同类型的芯片对外提供高性价比的AI算力。 服务行业： 1）商务部等9部门9月16日对外发布《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，提出五方面19条举措，包 括开展"服务消费季"系列促消费活动；支持优质消费资源与知名IP跨界合作；因地制宜延长热门文博场馆、景区营 业时间，优化预约方式，鼓励推行免预约；优化学生假期安排，完善配套政策等。增加优质服务供给，更好满足 人民群众多样化服务消费需求。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）黑色：玻璃价格回落，煤炭库存升高。2）农业：鸡蛋价格回升超10%。 中游：1）化工：PX、PTA开工率近期回升。 下游：1）地产：一、二、三 ...

人民财讯9月17日电，9月17日，商务部服贸司司长孔德军在国新办新闻发布会上表示，初步统计，围绕 建立服务消费"1+N"的政策体系，相关部门目前已经出台了30多项政策。孔德军指出，接下来商务部还 将出台住宿业高质量发展、铁路与旅游融合发展等一系列特色文件，形成政策组合拳。 ...

国家发展改革委就业收入分配和消费司司长吴越涛表示，下一步，我委将重点从三个方面，促进服务供 给提质扩容。一是推动企业向"新"，激发创新动能。深入实施"人工智能+"行动，推动人工智能在服务 消费等领域加快应用，赋能大中小各类服务企业。深化线上线下、商旅文体健多业态消费融合，鼓励企 业打造消费新场景、拓展消费新体验、挖掘消费新需求。二是推动行业向"优"，提升服务水平。依托职 业院校和龙头企业支持产教融合实训基地和公共实训基地建设，增加高技能服务人才供给。在托育、养 老、家政、旅游等重点领域实施"信用+"工程，健全守信激励和失信惩戒机制，让消费者更放心。三是 推动市场向"活"，营造良好环境。扎实推进统一大市场建设，清理整治市场准入壁垒，为各类企业特别 是中小企业营造公平的市场准入环境。发挥好与民营企业常态化沟通交流和问题解决机制作用，持续深 入听取民营企业意见建议，帮助民营企业解决困难问题、实现健康发展。 ...

Economic Growth Analysis - In August, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises grew by 5.2% year-on-year, down from 5.7% in July[5] - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, a decrease from 3.7% in the previous month[5] - Fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of only 0.5%, down from 1.6% in July[5] Investment and Consumption Trends - The decline in investment was more significant than expected, with fixed asset investment down by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year[5] - Manufacturing investment is expected to remain low, which may improve profit margins in the long run[5] - Service sector performance outpaced goods, with the service production index rising by 5.6% year-on-year in August[5] Structural Adjustments and Future Outlook - The slowdown in growth is seen as manageable, with a focus on optimizing resource allocation rather than a decline in investment confidence[5] - The transition from old to new economic drivers is underway, with high-tech industries showing a 4.1 percentage point increase in added value compared to the overall sector[5] - Future consumer spending is expected to shift towards services, supported by government policies aimed at enhancing consumer confidence[5]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued a notification outlining 19 measures to expand service consumption, indicating a shift from strategic positioning to practical implementation [1] - The measures include exploring the establishment of spring and autumn breaks for primary and secondary schools, increasing service consumption time for tourism, and supporting cross-industry IP cooperation and the introduction of foreign sports events [1] - Analysts believe that the combination of clear subsidy directions and financial support will stimulate the IP economy, event economy, and AI+ consumption, while also providing subsidies to residents from the demand side and reducing costs and improving efficiency from the supply side [1] Industry Analysis - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme Index includes a range of new consumption leaders, with service-oriented consumption accounting for over 50%, covering sectors such as cultural tourism, dining, sports goods, medical beauty, and freshly brewed tea [1] - The current rolling price-to-earnings ratio of the index is 22 times, positioned at the 24.5% percentile since its launch in 2020, indicating emerging investment value [1] - The E Fund Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption ETF (513070) has the lowest management fee rate of 0.15% per year among stock ETFs and supports T+0 trading, providing investors with opportunities to capitalize on service consumption investments [1]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a sideways trend with a slight increase on September 16, 2023, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3861.87 points, up 0.04%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 13063.97 points, up 0.45% [1][4][8] - Among the 30 sectors tracked, 20 sectors saw gains, with textiles, computers, and comprehensive finance leading the increases, while agriculture, banking, and non-ferrous metals faced significant declines [1][4][8] - The total trading volume for the A-share market reached 236.71 billion yuan, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1][4][8] Overseas Market Overview - On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.27%, the S&P 500 down by 0.13%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.07% [2][4] - Notably, Tesla's stock rose nearly 3%, while major companies like UnitedHealth and Nvidia saw declines of over 1% [2][4] Policy Measures - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments jointly issued policies aimed at expanding service consumption, proposing 19 specific measures to stimulate consumption and support economic growth [9][10] - The measures include initiatives to enhance high-quality service supply, promote new consumption models, and improve financial support for service consumption [9][10][11] Digital Transformation Guidelines - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released guidelines for the digital transformation of key industries, applicable to manufacturing enterprises and digital transformation service providers [12][13] - The guidelines include a reference for 14 industry scenarios, aiming to support the development of digital transformation across various sectors [12][13] Economic Data - Recent data indicates that China's trade with ASEAN countries grew by 9.7% in the first eight months of the year, maintaining ASEAN's position as China's largest trading partner [19] - In the U.S., retail sales rose by 0.6% in August, marking the third consecutive month of exceeding expectations, with consumer spending remaining robust [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the service consumption sector, including Gu Ming, Mi Xue, Cha Bai Dao, Xiao Cai Yuan, Da Shi, and others [7][8]. Core Insights - The recent policy measures aimed at expanding service consumption are expected to boost the service sector, particularly in areas such as cultural tourism, IP consumption, and elderly care [1][2]. - The report highlights the potential for significant growth in China's service consumption, with the current contribution of service industry value added to GDP at 57%, compared to around 70% in developed countries, indicating room for expansion [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality service supply and the integration of new technologies and business models to enhance the service sector [1][4]. Summary by Sections Policy Measures - The report outlines five key areas with 19 specific measures to promote service consumption, including the cultivation of service consumption platforms and the enhancement of high-quality service supply [3][4]. - Specific initiatives include optimizing cultural product offerings, extending operating hours for tourist attractions, and promoting long-term care insurance [3]. Market Performance - As of August 2025, retail and catering revenue reached 449.6 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.1%, indicating a recovery from previous lows [4]. - Domestic travel during the first half of 2025 saw 3.285 billion trips, a 20.6% increase year-on-year, with spending reaching 3.15 trillion yuan, up 15.2% [4]. Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with growth potential and strong market positions, such as Gu Ming, Mi Xue, and others, which are expected to benefit from policy support and industry consolidation [5][8]. - Specific companies highlighted for their growth potential include Gu Ming (1364 HK), Mi Xue Group (2097 HK), and others, with target prices set for each [8][12]. Financial Performance - Gu Ming reported a 34.4% year-on-year increase in GMV to 14.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 1.625 billion yuan, reflecting a 121.5% increase [13]. - Mi Xue Group's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 14.87 billion yuan, a 39.3% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.69 billion yuan, up 42.9% [15]. Growth Outlook - The report anticipates that as the new measures are implemented, the service sector will experience a surge in high-quality supply and innovative business models, driving domestic demand growth [4][5].

Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - The September market trend is more volatile compared to July and August, entering a high-level consolidation phase after a continuous rise. In the long run, China's capital market is at the beginning of a strategic allocation period. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which have more technology growth components, are more offensive with large fluctuations but may bring higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which have more dividend blue-chip components, are more defensive with small fluctuations and relatively weak price elasticity [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices for IF contracts showed declines, with decreases ranging from -0.11% to -0.25%. The trading volume and open interest had different changes, with open interest increasing in some contracts and decreasing in others [1] - **IH Contracts**: The prices of IH contracts also declined, with decreases ranging from -0.24% to -0.34%. The trading volume and open interest changed, with open interest showing a mixed pattern of increase and decrease [1] - **IC Contracts**: The prices of IC contracts increased, with increases ranging from 0.55% to 0.65%. The trading volume and open interest had different changes, with open interest generally increasing [1] - **IM Contracts**: The prices of IM contracts decreased, with decreases ranging from -0.44% to -0.72%. The trading volume and open interest changed, with open interest showing a mixed pattern of increase and decrease [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of different contracts had different changes compared to the previous values [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300 index increased by 0.24%, the SSE 50 index decreased by -0.15%, the CSI 500 index decreased by -0.10%, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by -0.24%. Other major domestic and overseas indexes also had different degrees of increase or decrease [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries in the CSI 300 index had different price changes, with some industries rising and some falling [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of different contracts relative to their corresponding spot indexes had different values and changes compared to the previous two - day values [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic and overseas major indexes, such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and overseas indexes like the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, etc., had different degrees of increase or decrease [1] 5. Macro Information - The Ministry of Commerce and other nine departments issued policies to expand service consumption, including 19 measures in five aspects, and proposed to build pilot cities for new consumption formats [2] - Trump said he would talk to Chinese leaders, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson had no specific information to provide [2] - The central bank governor pointed out that the international monetary system may evolve towards a pattern of co - existence, competition, and mutual restraint of several sovereign currencies [2] - The so - called "cancellation of the overseas individual housing purchase limit in China" is a misreading, and the policy only optimizes the review process [2] 6. Industry Information - A ±800 kV UHV DC transmission project from Southeast Tibet to the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area started construction, with a total investment of about 53.2 billion yuan and over 150 billion yuan in supporting power base investment [2] - Guangdong Province issued an action plan to empower the toy industry with AI, aiming for a scale - above - designated - size toy industry revenue of 100 billion yuan and an AI toy penetration rate of over 30% by 2027 [2] - Suzhou released an "AI +" urban action plan, aiming to gather over 3000 AI enterprises by the end of 2026, with an average annual growth rate of over 20% in the core scale of the intelligent economy industry [2] - The China Real Estate Association's direct - sales platform for commercial housing was officially launched, with 15 initial signing units [2] - The world's first AI Agent trading market, MuleRun, was officially launched [2]

Policy Measures - On September 16, nine departments jointly issued policies to expand service consumption, focusing on five key areas: cultivating service consumption platforms, enriching high-quality service supply, stimulating new consumption, enhancing financial support, and improving statistical monitoring systems[2] - The report outlines 19 specific measures aimed at promoting the quality and expansion of service consumption, thereby unleashing domestic demand potential[2] Industry Insights - In the cultural and tourism sector, the added value of cultural and related industries reached CNY 5.95 trillion in 2023, while tourism and related industries added value was CNY 5.48 trillion[2] - Domestic travel is projected to reach 5.615 billion trips in 2024, with total consumption expected to hit CNY 5.75 trillion[2] - The sports industry is anticipated to grow significantly, with a focus on introducing high-quality international sports events and fostering grassroots sports events like "Village Super" and "Su Super" to create new consumption growth points[2] Investment Recommendations - Service retail sales are expected to grow by 6.2% year-on-year in 2024, outpacing goods retail sales by 3 percentage points[2] - Per capita service consumption expenditure is projected to increase by 7.4%, contributing 63% to overall per capita consumption growth[2] - Investment focus areas include "new" cultural tourism projects, quality sports event IPs, and long-term care insurance-related enterprises in the elder care sector[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy progress, lower-than-expected economic growth, and weaker-than-expected consumer sentiment recovery[2]