新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-10 关税本身对铜供需暂时不会有根本性改变 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-07-09，沪铜主力合约开于 79590元/吨，收于 78400元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-1.53%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 78,340元/吨，收于 78,330 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.74%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日铜市呈现震荡下行态势，现货升水收窄至20-120元/吨，均价70元/吨，较前日下跌15元。受美国 拟加征50%铜关税消息影响，沪铜夜盘冲高至80300元后回落，日间持续走低至78750元，最终收报78940元/吨，隔 月价差扩大至360元。现货市场交投有所回暖但整体仍显谨慎，常州地区平水成交，上海市场压价明显，俄罗斯等 非注册品牌贴水达160元/吨。预计在月差走扩和看跌情绪影响下，今日升水将继续承压。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，今日凌晨，美联储6月会议纪要显示官员对降息看法分化，因官员们在关税对通胀的影响方面观 点不一，大致分为三派：年内降息但排除7月（主流阵营）、全年按兵不动、主张下次会议立即行动。关税政策方 面，欧盟表示目标是在8月1日 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil market is expected to maintain a short - term shock pattern and turn bearish in the medium term due to OPEC's expected production increase and potential supply surplus after the peak season [2]. - The asphalt market shows a weak trend in the short term due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and expected cost loosening, with short - term prices fluctuating narrowly and cracking spreads remaining high [3][4]. - The liquefied gas market is expected to have a weak price trend due to reduced supply, weak combustion and chemical demand, and inventory reduction [8][9]. - The natural gas market in the US is expected to see price increases due to increased LNG exports and strong demand, while the European market is expected to be weak due to strong supply, weak demand, and reduced cooling needs [9]. - The fuel oil market shows different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils. High - sulfur fuel oil has some demand support, while low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and stable demand [12][13]. - The PX market is expected to follow the cost side in the short term due to tight supply and increasing demand [14]. - The PTA market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term due to increased supply, decreased downstream demand, and expected inventory accumulation [16]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to increasing supply, expected inventory accumulation, and decreased downstream demand [18][19]. - The short - fiber market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with strong support for processing fees due to production cuts and weak downstream demand [20]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the raw material side and fluctuate and consolidate in the short term due to production cuts and strong processing fee support [24]. - The styrene market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate due to increased supply, decreased demand, and increased inventory [26]. - The PVC market is expected to be under pressure in the second half of the year due to expected new production capacity, weak domestic demand, and limited export growth, with a strategy of shorting on rallies [29]. - The caustic soda market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term but face pressure from new production capacity in July - August, with attention to production and inventory changes [30]. - The plastic and PP markets are expected to be bearish in the short and medium term due to production capacity pressure, weak terminal demand, and a strategy of shorting on rallies [32]. - The glass market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with attention to production and sales, and in the medium term, to cost reduction and factory cold - repair [35]. - The soda ash market is expected to show a weak shock performance this week as the macro - logic may return to the industrial logic, with a bearish fundamental situation [38]. - The methanol market is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to increased supply, stable demand, and eased geopolitical conflicts [41]. - The urea market is expected to fluctuate due to high supply, weak demand, and uncertain export policies [42]. - The log market suggests waiting and seeing for the near - month contracts and paying attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [44][45]. - The double - offset paper market remains in a situation of weak supply and demand, with paper mills having a strong willingness to support prices due to cost pressure relief [46][48]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber markets suggest holding short positions for the RU and NR main 09 contracts and holding the spread between RU2509 and NR2509 [50][51]. - The butadiene rubber market suggests short - selling the BR main 08 contract, waiting and seeing for the spread between BR2509 and NR2509, and selling the BR2509 call option [53][54]. - The pulp market suggests short - selling a small amount of the SP main 09 contract and holding the spread between 2*SP2509 and NR2509 [57]. Summaries by Directory Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 contract settled at $67.93, up $0.93 or 1.39% ; Brent2509 contract settled at $69.58, up $1.28 or 1.87% ; SC main contract 2508 fell to 501.3 yuan/barrel and then rose to 512 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: Trump postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date to August 1st and plans to raise tariffs significantly. OPEC+ may approve a production increase of about 550,000 barrels per day in September [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: OPEC's production increase expectation is strengthened, and the market may face a supply surplus after the peak season. However, the short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and oil prices are expected to remain stable in the short term and turn bearish in the medium term [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a range - bound trading idea in the short term and be bearish in the medium term for single - side trading; keep an eye on the stabilization of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads for arbitrage; and wait and see for options [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3594 points (+0.90%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3396 points (+0.80%) at night. Spot prices vary by region [3]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong decreased, while that in the Yangtze River Delta increased, and that in South China remained stable [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and cost is expected to loosen. The short - term price will fluctuate narrowly, and the cracking spread will remain high [3][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate; arbitrage: the asphalt - oil spread rebounds as oil prices weaken in the short term; options: wait and see [4][6]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4193 (+0.34%) at night, and PG2509 closed at 4088 (+0.25%) at night. Spot prices vary by region [6]. - **Related News**: The market in South China is stable with weak demand; the market in Shandong has different trends for civil gas and ether - post carbon four; the market in East China is generally stable with some weakness [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply decreases, demand in both combustion and chemical fields weakens, and inventories are reduced. The price is expected to be weak [8][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: weak operation [9]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: TTF closed at 33.621 (+0.45%), HH closed at 3.401 (+0.09%), and JKM closed at 12.44 (+1.47%) [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas production decreases, demand is strong, and LNG exports increase, so prices are expected to rise. European natural gas prices are weak due to strong supply, weak demand, and reduced cooling needs [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: go long on HH at low prices and expect TTF to fluctuate [9][10]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 2971 (+1.05%) at night, and LU09 closed at 3670 (+1.89%) at night. Singapore paper - cargo spreads remain stable [10]. - **Related News**: Indonesia bids to sell fuel oil, and India's fuel consumption decreases in June [10][12]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil has demand support from seasonal power generation and procurement in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and stable demand [12][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: wait and see; arbitrage: pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot and consider going long on the FU91 positive spread at low prices [12][13]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6684 (+0.18%) during the day and 6706 (+0.33%) at night. Spot prices rebounded slightly [14]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: PX inventory is low, supply is tight, and downstream demand is expected to increase. It is expected to follow the cost side in the short term [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [14][15]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4710 (+0.00%) during the day and 4720 (+0.21%) at night. Spot prices and basis are provided [15]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, and a PTA device resumes normal operation [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increases, downstream demand decreases, and inventory accumulation is expected. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [16][15]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4279 (+0.05%) during the day and 4279 (+0.00%) at night. Spot prices and basis are provided [16]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, and port inventory increases [16][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increases, downstream demand decreases, and inventory accumulation is expected in August - September. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate weakly; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [19][20]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 main contract closed at 6518 (+0.06%) during the day and 6526 (+0.12%) at night. Spot prices vary by region [20]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some factories cut production, processing margins expand, and downstream demand is weak. Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: short PTA and long PF; options: wait and see [20][22]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Review**: PR2509 main contract closed at 5872 (+0.03%) during the day and 5874 (+0.03%) at night. Spot market trading is light [23]. - **Related News**: Some bottle - chip factories plan to cut production [23][24]. - **Logic Analysis**: Processing fees are strong due to production cuts. The price is expected to follow the raw material side and fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [24]. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2508 main contract closed at 7337 (-0.04%) during the day and 7382 (+0.61%) at night. Spot prices and basis are provided [24][25]. - **Related News**: Port inventories of styrene and pure benzene increase [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increases, demand decreases, and inventories rise. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [26][27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices decrease slightly, and caustic soda spot prices increase in some areas [27]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong decreases, and the purchase price of caustic soda by some alumina factories increases [28][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC faces over - supply in the second half of the year and is under price pressure; caustic soda may fluctuate strongly in the short term but faces pressure from new production capacity in July - August [29][30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: caustic soda fluctuates strongly in the short term; PVC is bearish and suggests short - selling on rallies; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [30][31]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE prices in some regions decrease, and PP prices in different regions also show declines [32]. - **Related News**: The PE maintenance ratio decreases, and the PP maintenance ratio increases [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is production capacity pressure in the third quarter, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: bearish in the short and medium term; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [32][33]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1019 yuan/ton (-0.68%) and remained unchanged at night. Spot prices vary by region [34]. - **Related News**: Soda ash inventory increases, LOW - E glass sample enterprise开工率 decreases, and the glass market has different trends in different regions [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is difficult to rise continuously due to cost reduction and weak demand. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and pay attention to cost reduction and factory cold - repair in the medium term [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate weakly as the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [35][36]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1168 yuan/ton (-0.5%) and rose to 1172 yuan at night. Spot prices vary by region [37]. - **Related News**: Soda ash inventory increases, production and开工率 increase, and downstream demand is general [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory. It is expected to show a weak shock performance this week as the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate weakly this week; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [38][39]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2386 (-0.29%). Spot prices vary by region [40]. - **Related News**: International methanol production increases [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is abundant, demand is stable, and geopolitical conflicts ease. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [41]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures closed at 1748 (-0.34%). Spot prices rise slightly [42]. - **Related News**: Urea daily production increases, and production enterprise inventory decreases but remains high [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is high, demand is weak, and export policies are uncertain. The price is expected to fluctuate [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options on rebounds [42][43]. Log - **Related News**: Log spot prices are stable, and the number of incoming ships of New Zealand logs decreases [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand is still weak, and the price support and trading volume need further consideration. The difference between standard and market scales supports the current price [44][45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: wait and see for near - month contracts; arbitrage: pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; options: wait and see [44][45]. Double - Offset Paper - **Related News**: The double - offset paper market is stable, with paper mills stabilizing prices and social demand in the off - season [46]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand are both weak, but the supply - demand relationship is partially alleviated by autumn publication orders. Paper mills have a strong willingness to support prices due to cost pressure relief [46][48]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Market Review**: RU main 09 contract closed at 13950 (-0.14%), NR main 09 contract closed at 11990 (-0.33%) [48][49]. - **Related News**: Thailand's rubber production is expected to increase [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The El Niño index has a negative impact on RU, and inventory has different trends in different areas [50][51]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: hold short positions for RU and NR main 09 contracts; arbitrage: hold the spread

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene futures will be listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange on July 8, 2025, with night trading available. The initial listing contract months are from March to June 2026, and the BZ2603 contract is expected to be the most actively traded and become the main contract [1]. - The listed price of 5900 yuan/ton for the BZ2603 contract is relatively reasonable. The unilateral strategy on the first day should focus on range - bound operations, with an expected trading range of 5800 - 6050 yuan/ton [2][31]. - For the inter - period strategy, after listing, it is likely to be in a Contango structure. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of physical inter - month reverse arbitrage, such as shorting the near - term pure benzene and buying the BZ2603 contract [2]. - In the cross - variety strategy, attention should be paid to buying PX and shorting BZ. The PX - BZ spread presents a mid - to long - term favorable trend, while the downward squeezing space of the EB - BZ spread is relatively limited [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene Futures Valuation - Analysis of Key Elements of Futures Contracts - **Contract Details**: The trading unit of pure benzene futures is 30 tons/hand, with a minimum price change of 1 yuan/ton. The initial trading margin is 8%, and the daily price limit is 7% (14% on the first listing day). The contract months are from March to June 2026, and the BZ2603 contract is expected to be the main contract [1][8]. - **Delivery Standards**: The delivery standard for pure benzene futures is the national standard 545, which is in line with spot market practices. The main delivery areas include Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, with different price adjustments for other regions [2]. - **Delivery Area Price Adjustments**: Fujian and Guangdong have 0 yuan/ton price adjustments; Shandong has - 50 yuan/ton; Tianjin, Hebei, and Anhui have - 120 yuan/ton; and Liaoning has - 200 yuan/ton. On July 7, 2025, 8 designated delivery factories with a total storage capacity of 225,000 tons and 5 designated delivery warehouses were announced [2][14]. - **Other Design Features**: The contract design follows the mature model of listed varieties, with delivery systems including one - time delivery, rolling delivery, and delivery against futures. It combines factory and warehouse delivery systems, with factory delivery as the main method. The risk control system includes price limits, position limits, etc. [16][17]. 2. Pure Benzene Futures Valuation - Locating the Cheapest Deliverable Goods - **Cheapest Deliverable Goods in the Spot Market**: Due to the narrowing quality gap between hydrogenated benzene and petroleum benzene, and considering the price adjustments in different regions, all delivery factory goods can be regarded as the "cheapest deliverable goods" [18]. - **Theoretical Calculation of the Spot Price of the Lowest Deliverable Goods**: Based on factors such as the Brent 2603 contract price, naphtha price, exchange rate, and market expectations, the reasonable price of the BZ2603 contract is around 5800 yuan/ton. If the crude oil price rebounds to 70 - 75 dollars, the upper limit of the pure benzene price is about 6500 yuan/ton; if it drops to 60 dollars, the lower limit is about 5500 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Supply - Demand Pattern of Pure Benzene - In the first half of 2025, the supply - demand pattern of pure benzene was in surplus, but it is expected to gradually improve in the second half. The growth rate of apparent demand in 2023 and 2024 was 17.2% and 12% respectively, and it is expected to be around 8% in 2025. The core reason is that the new installations of downstream industries are decreasing, while the production pressure from upstream ethylene cracking and toluene disproportionation installations remains [28]. - After the listing of pure benzene futures, the willingness to hold near - term positions may weaken, and the long - term price curve is likely to maintain a Contango structure [28]. 4. Investment Outlook for Pure Benzene Futures - **Unilateral Strategy on the First Listing Day**: The listed price of 5900 yuan/ton is relatively reasonable. It is recommended to operate in a range - bound manner, with an expected trading range of 5800 - 6050 yuan/ton [31]. - **Inter - period Strategy on the First Listing Day**: Focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities. The current spot port inventory of pure benzene remains at a high level of 170,000 tons. The total arbitrage cost is about 80.2 yuan/ton [32]. - **Cross - variety Strategy on the First Listing Day**: Focus on the PX - BZ spread arbitrage. The PX mid - term pattern is significantly better than that of pure benzene, while the downward squeezing space of the EB - BZ spread is relatively limited [3][36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for pure benzene is "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market's mainstream expectation is that the pure benzene market will marginally improve, but remain weak in the second half of the year. With PX being strong, there is still room for BZ valuation to decline, and the overall outlook is bearish. However, from a long - term allocation perspective, if the distal BZN drops to $50 - 115 per ton, there may be opportunities for light - position trial long trades [2] - The supply reduction of pure benzene is difficult, and the driving force for its valuation repair usually comes from the demand side. The weighted demand growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to be around 5 - 5.5%. Overall, the supply - demand situation in the second half of the year is slightly better than that in the first half, but it will still be in a balanced to slightly inventory - building state if there are no unexpected factors in terminal demand [19][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene Futures Contract Points Interpretation - Pure benzene futures will be listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange starting from 09:00 on July 8, 2025. The first batch of listed contracts are BZ2603, BZ2604, BZ2605, BZ2606. The daily price limit is 7% of the previous trading day's settlement price, and 14% of the listing benchmark price on the first trading day. The trading margin is 8% of the contract value. The trading fee is 0.01% of the transaction amount, and 0.005% for hedging transactions [11] - The trading unit of pure benzene futures is 30 tons per lot, much larger than that of styrene futures. The ratio for hedging with styrene can be set at 1:6 or 1:7.5. The last trading day and the last delivery day are the same as those of styrene contracts. The main contracts of pure benzene are expected to change monthly continuously, different from PX's 1/5/9 main contracts, and attention should be paid to the liquidity of far - month contracts [12] 2. Key Points of Pure Benzene Delivery Rules - The delivery quality standard of pure benzene futures announced by DCE is consistent with the current national standard (GB/T 3405 - 2025), and coal - based hydrogenated benzene can also participate in delivery. The crystallization point requirement is ≥5.45°C [16] - The delivery area has been expanded from East China to South China, North China, and Northeast China. Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai are the benchmark delivery areas, Shandong has a discount of 50 yuan per ton, and South China has no premium or discount [17] - Pure benzene standard warehouse receipts are cancelled monthly to align with the characteristics of the spot market [18] 3. Strategy Suggestions for the First Listing Day of Pure Benzene - **Absolute Price Dimension**: Based on the Singapore Exchange's far - month contracts, the price of pure benzene in East China in March next year is estimated to be around 5900 yuan per ton. Calculated by the current spot price in East China plus the far - month paper - cargo premium structure, the far - month price may be around 6000 - 6100 yuan per ton, but there may be a discount between the futures price and the East China price. In the long - term, if the distal BZN drops to $50 - 115 per ton, light - position trial long trades can be considered [2][22] - **Internal - External Arbitrage**: Considering the different delivery systems of the Singapore Exchange (cash settlement) and DCE (physical delivery), opportunities for long Singapore Exchange pure benzene and short DCE pure benzene can be explored [2][23] - **Cross - Variety Arbitrage in the Industrial Chain**: The median spread corresponding to the break - even point of non - integrated styrene plants is 1300 yuan per ton. Without a squeeze, the 2603 EB - BZ spread may range from 1100 to 1500 yuan per ton [3][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on July 7, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the basis of power coal was - 180.4 yuan/ton on June 30, - 180.4 yuan/ton from July 1 - 3, and - 178.4 yuan/ton on July 4. The spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 [2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The basis data is presented in a chart, showing the relationship between the basis, spot price of Chinese Shengli crude oil, and the futures closing price of INE crude oil [6] - **Fuel Oil**: The basis data is presented in a chart, showing the relationship between the basis, FOB Singapore fuel oil spot price, and the futures closing price of fuel oil [7] - **Crude Oil/Asphalt Ratio**: On July 4, 2025, the ratio was 0.1407; on July 3, it was 0.1393; on July 2, it was 0.1411; on July 1, it was 0.1395; on June 30, it was 0.1394 [9] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: For various chemicals such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PP, etc., the basis data from June 30 to July 4, 2025, is provided. For example, the basis of natural rubber was - 35 yuan/ton on June 30, - 145 yuan/ton on July 1, - 125 yuan/ton on July 2, - 65 yuan/ton on July 3, and 45 yuan/ton on July 4 [10] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month for various chemicals are given. For example, for natural rubber, the 5 - 1 month spread was 70 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 month spread was - 860 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 5 month spread was - 930 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from June 30 to July 4, 2025, are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2362 yuan/ton on June 30 and 2389 yuan/ton on July 4 [10] 3. Black Metals - **Basis Data**: From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal is presented. For example, the basis of rebar was 143 yuan/ton on June 30, 97 yuan/ton on July 1, 105 yuan/ton on July 2, 94 yuan/ton on July 3, and 108 yuan/ton on July 4 [15] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar (5 - 1 month, 10 - 1 month, 10 - 5 month) and those of iron ore, coke, and coking coal (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar was 5 yuan/ton [15] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from June 30 to July 4, 2025, are provided. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 4.19 on June 30 and July 4 [15] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market is presented. For example, the basis of copper was 200 yuan/ton on June 30, - 240 yuan/ton on July 1, 570 yuan/ton on July 2, 580 yuan/ton on July 3, and 790 yuan/ton on July 4 [24] (2) London Market - **LME Data**: On July 4, 2025, the LME spreads of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 95.35, - 3.40, - 21.64, - 24.63, - 189.09, and 22.00 respectively. The Shanghai - London ratios were 8.07, 7.93, 8.13, 8.37, 7.95, and 7.94 respectively. The CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit - losses are also provided [31] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the basis data of soybeans (No.1 and No.2), soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. is presented. For example, the basis of soybean No.1 was - 61 yuan/ton on June 30 and July 3, - 71 yuan/ton on July 2, - 47 yuan/ton on July 1, and - 31 yuan/ton on July 4 [40] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybean No.1 was 24 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as soybean No.1/corn, soybean No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from June 30 to July 4, 2025, are provided. For example, the soybean No.1/corn ratio was 1.75 on July 3 and July 4 [40] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures is presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 was 50.28 on June 30, 56.76 on July 1, 49.48 on July 2, 50.07 on July 3, and 46.20 on July 4 [48] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 (next - month - current - month, current - quarter - current - month, next - quarter - current - month, etc.) are given. For example, the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 19.4 [48]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the PVC futures market is showing strength, with the main contract trading at 4924.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.76% increase [1] - PVC powder exports have been a bright spot in demand, with cumulative exports from January to May 2025 reaching 1.6985 million tons, a 56.07% increase compared to 1.0883 million tons during the same period last year [2] - As of the end of June, the domestic PVC downstream comprehensive operating rate is at 42.78%, down 3.37 percentage points from early June and down 10.54 percentage points year-on-year, marking the lowest point since mid-March 2025 [2] Group 2 - On the supply side, there has been a slight increase in domestic PVC maintenance this week, with a planned maintenance by Henan Yuhang, leading to a slight decrease in supply; however, overall supply remains high with significant new production plans expected in the future [3] - Demand continues to weaken as the domestic and international markets enter a demand off-season, with some domestic downstream operations affected by the rainy season [3] - The cost side is supported by reduced ethylene imports, while the situation in Inner Mongolia regarding electricity restrictions for calcium carbide needs to be monitored, which is expected to support PVC bottom prices [3] Group 3 - The operational strategy suggests a fluctuating market, with basic fundamentals still under pressure as the downstream enters the off-season; however, the gradual changes in basis and monthly spread are narrowing the space for arbitrage and hedging [4] - The ongoing delay of India's BIS certification is expected to contribute to the continued fluctuation of PVC prices [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pulse Daily Report - July 1, 2025: Limited Supply Bullishness, Sideways Market Movement" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Market Performance Futures and Spot Market - **Soybean Meal**: Futures prices showed mixed movements, with different contracts having varying closing prices and changes. Spot basis prices decreased in most regions. For example, the 01 contract of soybean meal closed at 3003 with a gain of 4, and the basis in Tianjin remained at -40. [4] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Futures prices generally increased, and spot basis prices also showed some improvements. For instance, the 05 contract of rapeseed meal closed at 2320 with a gain of 6, and the basis in Guangdong increased by 16 to -116. [4] Spread Analysis - **Monthly Spreads**: Soybean meal monthly spreads had a mixed performance, with some spreads narrowing and others widening. Rapeseed meal monthly spreads showed a phased rebound, mainly influenced by the single - sided movement of the market. [4] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and the spreads between soybean meal and sunflower meal, as well as rapeseed meal and sunflower meal, also changed. [4] Market Trends - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean market showed a sideways - down trend as the report lacked bullish drivers, and the market focused on the relatively loose supply - demand situation. [4] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal market moved sideways with limited changes, while the rapeseed meal market rebounded. [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - **US**: The new - crop balance sheet of US soybeans improved due to the boost from biodiesel policies on crushing. As of the week ending June 15, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans reached 66%. The old - crop export inspection volume in the week ending June 12 was 21.58 tons, and the soybean crushing data in May was good, with the NOPA - caliber soybean crushing volume at 192.829 million bushels, a 1.37% increase from the previous month. [5] - **Brazil**: Brazilian farmers' selling progress was relatively slow and at a low level compared to historical periods. The recent selling progress continued to slow down, and price pressure emerged. The recent crushing volume decreased, and although the April crushing volume was good, the crushing profit was relatively low. It is expected that Brazil may further increase exports. [5] - **Argentina**: The domestic crushing volume may improve, and soybean exports may increase as the prices of terminal products have gradually stabilized. [5] Domestic Market - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic spot market remained relatively loose, with the oil refinery operating rate increasing, sufficient supply, and gradually accumulating inventory. As of June 27, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil refineries was 248.78 tons, the operating rate was 69.93%, the soybean inventory was 665.87 tons, a 4.37% increase from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory was 69.16 tons, a 35.9% increase from the previous week. [6] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The demand for rapeseed meal gradually weakened, and although the supply was sufficient, the demand decline and high - level granular rapeseed meal still posed supply pressure. As of the week ending June 27, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil refineries was 4.3 tons, the operating rate was 11.46%, the rapeseed inventory was 18.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from the previous week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.1 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons from the previous week. [6] Group 4: Macro - analysis - The negotiation between China and the US in London was completed, but the market lacked clear information. There were still many uncertainties in international trade, but as the market gradually stabilized, macro - level disturbances decreased. Due to China's high demand for the US soybean market in the long - term, the price was not likely to drop significantly in the short term. [7] Group 5: Logical Analysis - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean meal market showed some pressure, but after the previous bearish factors were gradually reflected, the market rebounded. The overall bullish effect of the report was limited, and the recent upward trend slowed down. Although there were short - term bearish factors, the deep - decline space was limited as the price had dropped significantly. [7] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market moved sideways. The demand support was weak, and the upward space was limited due to the relatively high inventory level. [7] - **Spreads**: The monthly spreads of soybean meal had some support, and the monthly spreads of rapeseed meal were relatively strong. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was expected to widen in the future. [7] Group 6: Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Trading**: It is recommended to continue to make a small - scale long - position layout for the far - month contracts of soybean meal. [8] - **Arbitrage**: Expand the MRM09 spread. [8] - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. [8] Group 7: Soybean Crushing Profit - The crushing profit of soybeans from different origins and shipping periods varied. For example, the crushing profit of soybeans from Argentina in October was - 72.23, showing a decrease compared to the previous day. [9]

跨期套利跟踪 2025/06/27 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 80 -80 -290 -480 理论价差 496 890 1293 1696 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 65 -30 -100 -195 理论价差 214 334 454 574 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 0 -85 -190 -295 理论价差 213 327 442 556 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 60 65 60 40 理论价差 211 318 424 531 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 2230 2340 2440 2690 锡 5-1 价差 -660 理论价差 5528 期现套利跟踪 2025/06/27 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -115 -35 理论价差 326 775 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -95 -30 理论价差 143 273 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [8] - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [8] Core Viewpoints - The current TC negotiation remains unresolved, and the overall processing fee is still low. The scrap copper enterprises are affected by the implementation of the reverse invoicing policy and generally believe that the supply of goods may become tight in the future. However, the demand side is not very optimistic. Although the supply and demand are slightly weak, the macro factors are relatively changeable, and the precious metal attribute of copper may be highlighted. Therefore, it is still recommended to mainly use buy hedging on dips, with the buying range of the Cu2507 contract suggested to be between 77,400 yuan/ton and 78,000 yuan/ton [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On June 25, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 78,410 yuan/ton and closed at 78,810 yuan/ton, a 0.22% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 78,600 yuan/ton and closed at 78,720 yuan/ton, a 0.36% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, on June 25, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,530 - 78,630 yuan/ton, with a premium of flat to 60 yuan/ton for the 2507 contract and an average premium of 30 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan). The intraday spread between nearby contracts narrowed to 130 - 150 yuan. The market supply of goods tightened, and the premium stabilized. It is expected that the premium will remain stable today, but some tight varieties may rise [2] Important Information Summary - Macro and geopolitical aspects: Trump said that he thought the war between Israel and Iran was over, but the conflict might break out again, perhaps soon, and he would not give up sanctions on Iran. He did not think Iran would restart its nuclear program. The US will hold talks with Iran next week, and he did not think the nuclear deal was necessary. Domestically, the Iranian defense minister arrived in China to attend the SCO defense ministers' meeting [3] Mining End - New World Resources' land reclamation plan for its Antler copper mine project in Arizona has been approved. With the pending state-level permits, the company can start construction on the private land that constitutes most of the Antler project. The Arizona Mining Supervision Bureau approved the plan and accepted a total of A$9.01 million in relevant financial guarantees, which must be finalized within 60 days. New World, which is in a takeover bidding war, plans to meet this requirement through a guaranteed bond arranged with its preferred insurance company. The Antler project is located in a remote area in northern Arizona and is planned as an underground mining operation. Magna Mining received C$500,000 from the Ontario government for the development of its Crean Hill nickel-copper-platinum group metal mine in the brownfield project. Magna said the funds will be used for metallurgical research on improving the recovery of precious metals in the Crean Hill contact zone and footwall mineralization, which is part of its 2024 surface bulk sampling plan. In September last year, the company released the latest economic evaluation of the project, based on more than 30 million tons of mineral resources (including 14.5 million tons of high-grade underground resources) that meet the NI 43 - 101 standard, calculating a post-tax net present value (8% discount rate) of C$194.1 million and a mine life of 13 years [4] Smelting and Import - In April, the global refined copper market had a supply shortage of 38,000 tons, while in March, there was a surplus of 12,000 tons. In the first four months of this year, the market had a supply surplus of 233,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 236,000 tons in the same period last year. In April, the global refined copper production was 2.37 million tons, and the consumption was 2.42 million tons [5] Consumption - Recently, the operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 75.82%, a month-on-month increase of 2.6 percentage points but lower than expected. The mid-year production plan put pressure on processing fees, and the resumption of production by some enterprises drove the output to rebound. The raw material inventory decreased to 34,650 tons (-3.08%), while the finished product inventory increased to 68,350 tons (+7.38%), reflecting weak terminal demand. It is expected that the operating rate will slightly rise to 76.23% next week, and the high copper price may continue to suppress the improvement of demand. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises decreased to 73.26% (a month-on-month decrease of 3.04 percentage points), mainly due to weak terminal demand and the high copper price suppressing procurement. The finished product inventory decreased to 21,190 tons (-5.02%), and the raw material inventory increased to 17,360 tons (+1.58%). It is expected that the operating rate will continue to decrease to 71.64% next week, and the demand decline in the construction industry is particularly significant [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,200 tons to 94,675 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 955 tons to 21,470 tons. On June 25, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 129,600 tons, a decrease of 16,300 tons compared with the previous week [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various futures products on different dates from June 19 to June 25, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [2][10][15]. Summaries by Directory Power Coal - **Basis Data**: The basis of power coal on June 25, 2025, was - 184.4 yuan/ton, showing a slight change compared with previous days [2]. - **Inter - period Data**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads were all 0.0 [2]. Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - **Basis Data**: For crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, relevant basis and ratio data are presented on different dates. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on June 25, 2025, was - 32.94 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1527 [9]. Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: The basis of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, and PP showed different values on different dates. For example, the basis of natural rubber on June 25, 2025, was - 20 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - period Data**: Different inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are provided for various chemical products [10]. - **Inter - variety Data**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, and PP - 3*methanol are presented on different dates [10]. Black Metals - **Basis Data**: The basis of products like rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal showed fluctuations from June 19 to June 25, 2025. For example, the basis of rebar on June 25, 2025, was 74.0 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - period Data**: Different inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of coke was - 16.5 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - variety Data**: The inter - variety ratios such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, and coke/coking coal, as well as the spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil, are presented on different dates [15]. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin showed different values on different dates. For example, the basis of copper on June 25, 2025, was - 50 yuan/ton [23]. - **LME - related Data**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided on June 25, 2025 [30]. London Market - **Basis Data**: LME basis data is presented, along with Shanghai - London ratio and import profit and loss data [32][33][34]. Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: The basis of products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn showed different values on different dates [40]. - **Inter - period Data**: Different inter - period spreads for various agricultural products are given [38][40]. - **Inter - variety Data**: The inter - variety ratios and spreads such as soybean 1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, and soybean meal - rapeseed meal are presented on different dates [38]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures showed different values on different dates from June 19 to June 25, 2025. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on June 25, 2025, was 37.27 [48]. - **Inter - period Data**: Different inter - period spreads (next month - current month, current quarter - current month, etc.) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided [48].