Group 1 - The U.S. job market remains stable, but there are emerging cracks that could pose significant challenges in the coming months [1] - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 jobs, slightly above market expectations but below April's 147,000 [1] - The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, with the underemployment rate remaining at 7.8% [1] Group 2 - Job growth is primarily driven by the healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance sectors, but these industries face potential growth limitations due to proposed policy changes [2] - The proposed spending bill includes a $700 billion cut to federal Medicaid spending and increased costs for ACA enrollment, which could severely impact the healthcare sector that has contributed about 30% of new jobs over the past three years [2] - The leisure and hospitality sector may also be affected by new tariff policies, potentially leading to reduced consumer spending and job impacts [2] Group 3 - Job seekers' confidence is declining, with about 40% of job seekers lacking confidence in the current job market, and nearly one-third expecting fewer job opportunities in the next six months [2] - There is a growing disparity in the job market, where those already employed are faring better than new job seekers, particularly recent graduates [3] - Knowledge-based job growth in sectors like finance, marketing, and software development is weak, while professional and business services are cutting positions [3] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book indicates a contraction in overall economic activity, with businesses and households becoming increasingly cautious in their decision-making [3] - Recruitment levels are stable, but low employee turnover suggests that companies remain cautious about adding new positions [3]

Core Insights - The reports reveal how U.S. businesses are responding to the unpredictable tariff policies of President Donald Trump, primarily by raising prices and slowing down hiring [2][3] Economic Activity - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that half of the regions reported a "slight to moderate" decline in economic activity, with three regions reporting no growth [2] - All regions reported increased levels of economic and policy uncertainty, leading to hesitance in decision-making among businesses and households [3] Business Responses - Many businesses are stockpiling goods expected to be affected by tariffs, reflecting a cautious approach to inventory management [2][4] - A significant number of manufacturers (50%) reported price increases on goods subject to tariffs, with 31% of businesses stockpiling inventory and 43% reporting a decline in net profits [5] Hiring and Investment - Due to tariff-related uncertainties, many employers are delaying hiring, with reports of slight decreases in employee numbers in the manufacturing sector [4][6] - Nearly a quarter of service sector businesses are cutting capital investments in the U.S. [6] Small Business Impact - Small business owners express that the uncertainty surrounding tariffs is creating significant challenges, with some reporting their slowest sales months [7][8] - The unpredictable nature of tariff implementation complicates business operations, making it difficult for companies to make clear procurement decisions or long-term plans [10][12]

19 CSI C 46 ura inter 图页 r BB I 生假 n a great I (90) · FORSEMANA care . INE u one L | and 1 (GB) ro m @11 00 1 11 0 1 国 eman appens a com 关于关税问题，《褐皮书》中频繁提及"关税"和"不确定性"相关词汇，突显了当前美国经济面临的挑战。许多企业预计未来成本和价格将上升，并表示关税 增加对成本和价格带来上行压力。企业对于物价上升的预期存在差异，部分计划将关税成本转嫁给消费者，同时采取措施应对潜在风险。 而美国近期针对 大量进口商品实施的高额关税措施，加剧了市场的不确定性。美国最近还宣布对钢铁和铝产品的关税提高，这种政策的变化使得经济前景更加不确定。 根据美联储发布的最新经济形势报告《褐皮书》显示，近期美国经济活动的略微下降，暗示着贸易关税和高度不确定性对经济产生了广泛影响。这份报告是 美联储每年发布的重要参考资料之一，由圣路易斯联邦储备银行编撰，汇总了十二家地区联储对全美经济情况的调查结果。 根据报告内容，自上一份《褐皮书》发布以来，美国经济活动略有下降。所有辖区反映出经济和政策 ...

技术面： 基本面： 周五（6月6日）亚盘时段，现货黄金触底反弹收复隔夜部分跌幅，目前继续上探暂交投于3373美元附近。金价周四冲高回落，早些时候盘中白银突破35美元 关口，创13年新高，带动金价一度升破3400关口，创近四周新高至3403.28美元/盎司附近，但随后因中美领导人通话释放的贸易紧张局势缓和信号，现货黄 金价格收盘下跌0.6%，报每盎司3352.65美元。 6月5日，美国总统特朗普与中国国家主席习近平的通话成为全球金融市场的焦点。特朗普在社交媒体上表示，双方在贸易问题上达成"非常积极的结论"，而 中国官方则强调应撤销对华消极举措。这场罕见的领导人对话被市场解读为贸易紧张局势解冻的信号，削弱了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力，导致现货黄金价 格在盘中高点3403.28美元后回落至3352.65美元。尽管如此，黄金今年以来已上涨约28%，显示出其在全球不确定性背景下的强劲需求。贸易紧张局势的缓 解直接影响了避险资产的表现。黄金价格的下跌反映了市场对中美贸易谈判进展的乐观预期。 此外，特朗普近期多次公开呼吁美联储主席鲍威尔降低借贷成本，称高利率阻碍了经济增长。然而，美联储内部对降息的态度分歧明显。美联储理事库格 ...

Group 1 - Canada's trade deficit with the world surged from 2.3 billion CAD in March to approximately 7.1 billion CAD in April, marking the largest deficit on record [1] - Total goods and services trade deficit reached about 7.5 billion CAD in April [1] - Canadian goods exports fell to approximately 60.4 billion CAD in April, representing a 10.8% month-over-month decline, the largest drop in five years [1] Group 2 - Major declines in goods exports were observed in motor vehicles and parts, consumer goods, and energy products, with motor vehicle exports decreasing by 17.4% and passenger car and light truck exports dropping by 22.9% [1] - Consumer goods exports fell by 15.4% to 7 billion CAD, the lowest level since December 2023 [1] - Energy product exports have declined for the third consecutive month due to decreased demand amid economic uncertainty [1] Group 3 - In April, Canada's total goods imports decreased by 3.5% to approximately 67.6 billion CAD, with significant declines in motor vehicles and parts, industrial machinery, and consumer goods [1] - However, imports of unrefined gold, silver, and platinum group metals saw a substantial increase [1] Group 4 - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 15.7% in April, marking the third consecutive month of decline, while imports from the U.S. also fell by 10.8% [2] - The trade surplus with the U.S. narrowed to 3.6 billion CAD, the smallest surplus since December 2020 [2] - Exports to countries outside the U.S. increased by 2.9%, with the largest growth seen in exports to China, the UK, Algeria, and Brazil [2] Group 5 - Imports from countries outside the U.S. rose by 8.3% to a record 29 billion CAD, with total goods trade with non-U.S. countries reaching 47.3 billion CAD, also a monthly historical high [2] - The international services trade deficit narrowed from 500 million CAD in March to approximately 300 million CAD in April, with both service imports and exports declining slightly [2]

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve's report indicates high levels of economic and policy uncertainty in the U.S., negatively impacting businesses and households [1][2] - Since late April, overall economic activity has slightly declined, with half of the Federal Reserve districts experiencing mild or moderate downturns [1] - Consumer spending shows mixed results, with most districts reporting slight declines or no change, although some anticipate increased spending due to tariff impacts [1] Employment Trends - Employment conditions across most Federal Reserve districts have remained stable, but there is a noted decrease in labor demand, reflected in reduced working hours, paused hiring, and planned layoffs [1] Price and Cost Pressures - Since late April, there has been a slight increase in prices, with widespread expectations of faster price and cost increases across all Federal Reserve districts [2] - The report highlights that tariff increases are contributing to upward pressure on costs and prices [2] Future Outlook - The overall economic outlook remains slightly pessimistic and uncertain, showing no significant change from the previous report [1] - The next Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting is scheduled for June 17-18, which will consider the findings of this report [2]

美联储卡什卡利：由于经济面临不确定性，美联储必须静观其变。 ...

美联储卡什卡利：经济面临严峻的不确定性。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that high levels of economic and policy uncertainty are negatively impacting businesses and households, with tariff increases leading to rising costs and prices [1][2] - Economic activity has shown a slight decline since late April, with half of the districts reporting mild or moderate decreases in economic activity [1][2] - Consumer spending is mixed, with most districts experiencing slight declines or no change, although some districts have seen increased spending on items expected to be affected by tariffs [1][2] Group 2 - The overall economic outlook remains slightly pessimistic and uncertain, unchanged from the previous report [2] - Employment levels have seen minimal changes, with most districts reporting stable employment conditions, but there are widespread discussions about hiring delays due to uncertainty [2] - Price levels have experienced moderate increases since late April, with widespread expectations of faster future price increases due to rising costs, particularly from tariff hikes [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that half of the regions reported slight to moderate economic decline, while three regions reported no change and three regions reported slight growth [1] - All regions noted high levels of economic and policy uncertainty, leading to hesitancy and cautious attitudes among businesses and households in decision-making [1] - Manufacturing activity showed a slight decline, and consumer spending reports were mixed, with most regions indicating a slight decrease or no change in spending; however, some regions reported an increase in spending on goods affected by tariffs [1] Group 2 - Residential real estate sales showed little change, with most regions reporting that new home construction activity was flat or slowing [1] - Reports on bank loan demand and capital expenditure plans varied across regions [1] - Port activity was active, but other regions reported mixed results in transportation and warehousing activities [1]