在经济不确定性增加的情况下，美国企业对劳动力的需求正在减弱。有"小非农"之称的ADP就业数据在4月增长大幅放缓，远低于市场预期。 周三，ADP Research公布的数据显示，美国4月ADP就业人数增长6.2万人，是近九个月以来最慢的增长速度，不及预期的11.5万人，前值为15.5万 人。 ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示： 报告还揭示了工资增长方面的情况。更换工作的人的工资增长了6.9%，是自2024年12月以来的最高水平，3月为6.7%；留在原岗位的人的工资增 长了4.5%，比3月份略有放缓。 生产类工作的招聘表现优于服务类工作。 有分析称，特朗普暂停征收部分关税，已经导致一些企业暂停支出计划，这可能导致未来几个月劳动力需求减弱。此外，包括联邦承包商在内的 公司裁员公告也在增加，这些公司的合同已被美国政府效率部门取消。 密歇根大学的一项月度调查显示，消费者仍然担心未来一年失业率上升和收入增长放缓。美联储主席鲍威尔强调，美联储需要确保关税不会导致 通货膨胀持续上升，他警告称，美联储可能不得不在控制物价压力和支持劳动力市场之间做出选择。 目前，市场普遍预期2025年有四次降息。 "不安是今 ...

金十数据4月30日讯，美国第一季劳工成本温和上升，因关税引发的经济不确定性令劳动力需求降温。 美国第一季度劳工成本上升了0.9%，与上季度相同。周二公布的数据显示，每个失业人口对应1.02个职 位空缺，略低于2月份的1.06个。特朗普总统的全面关税削弱了商业信心，一些经济学家担心这可能很 快转化为失业。经济学家预计，美联储将在今年某个时候再次降息。 美国第一季度劳工成本温和上升 ...

美国公司的招聘在4月份放缓，为去年7月以来的最低增幅，显示出在经济不确定性中对工人的需求减 弱。虽然ADP数据显示招聘有所回落，但失业救济申请仍接近疫情前的平均水平，表明裁员仍然处于低 位。经济不确定性，包括特朗普关税影响以及消费者对未来一年失业率上升的担忧，可能导致未来几个 月劳动需求减弱。 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for the second quarter was $716 million, down 9% year-over-year primarily due to reduced volume from a lower starting backlog [19] - Adjusted EBITDA decreased 19% to $99 million, with a margin of 13.8%, down 180 basis points compared to the prior year [20] - GAAP net loss was $41 million, compared to income of $6 million in the prior year, largely due to a non-cash loss on the majority sale of Milacron [20] - Adjusted earnings per share were $0.60, a decrease of 21% year-over-year but exceeded expectations due to favorable interest expense [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Advanced Process Solutions (APS) segment saw year-over-year improvement in capital orders for Food, Health, and Nutrition (FHN) products, but larger investments were paused due to tariff uncertainties [12][19] - Molding Technology Solutions (MTS) revenue was $222 million, a decrease of 2% year-over-year, with stable orders for hot runner and mold-based components [23] - Backlog for MTS was $55 million, excluding the Milacron business, indicating a stable order environment despite macro challenges [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ongoing global macroeconomic uncertainty, driven by tariffs, has led to a decline in business and consumer confidence, resulting in delays in customer investment plans [10] - The company noted a strong project pipeline but faced slow conversion to orders due to the unpredictable environment [9][10] - Tariffs have significantly impacted customer sentiment, particularly in China, leading to a pause in orders for the hot runner business [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on its core strengths in highly engineered, value-added processing technologies and systems, targeting less cyclical global end markets [6] - A strategic shift towards leveraging expertise in systems design and process technology is emphasized to drive long-term growth [7] - The company is actively managing its supply chain to mitigate tariff impacts, including dual sourcing and adjusting contract terms [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about the project pipeline but acknowledged that elevated uncertainty is expected to persist in the near term [10][18] - The updated outlook anticipates total revenue of approximately $2.56 billion to $2.62 billion, significantly down from previous guidance due to lower orders [27] - Management remains confident in the long-term demand drivers for their end markets despite current challenges [30] Other Important Information - The company has entered into a definitive agreement to sell the TerraSource global business for $245 million, with expected net proceeds of approximately $100 million to be used for debt reduction [26] - The company has included approximately $15 million in direct tariff costs in its updated outlook for the remainder of the year [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you describe the order cadence you saw in the business as the quarter unfolded? - Orders were stable through February but faced delays due to tariff considerations, particularly in Food, Health, and Nutrition [34][35] Question: Can you talk about synergies related to the FHN businesses? - The company is on track to achieve synergies ahead of schedule, with significant integration initiatives already completed [40][41] Question: Which lever to offset tariffs is expected to have the most immediate impact? - Dual sourcing is expected to have the largest near-term impact, with targeted pricing actions also being implemented [47] Question: Can you provide an update on the TerraSource divestiture? - The TerraSource divestiture is expected to close by the end of Q3 or early Q4, with proceeds aimed at debt reduction [51][52] Question: What is the outlook for the macro environment? - The company anticipates a mild recession, with orders expected to decline from 2024 levels [78]

斯伦贝谢首席执行官Olivier Le Peuch上周告诉投资者，特朗普的关税正在造成可能损害需求的经济不确 定性，同时欧佩克+产油国集团加快增产速度超过最初预期。 Le Peuch上周在斯伦贝谢第一季度财报电话会议上与分析师和投资者交流时表示："在这种环境下，大 宗商品价格面临挑战，在它们稳定之前，客户可能对近期活动和非必要支出采取更谨慎的态度。" 钻井活动减少 美国总统特朗普希望石油和天然气行业"加大钻探力度"，以推行其能源主导议程，但那些实际参与这项 议程的的公司反而遭受了打击。 根据达拉斯联储的一项调查，美国原油价格已跌破每桶65美元，自特朗普第二个任期开始以来下跌超过 20%，这使得许多公司提高产量却无利可图。 美国页岩油企业高管们在对同一调查的匿名回应中尖锐地批评特朗普的政策措辞。根据美国石油协会经 济与研究副总裁Mason Hamilton的说法，他们在评论中使用"不确定性"一词的次数，比新冠疫情爆发五 年来的任何一个季度都多。 油田服务公司贝克休斯（Baker Hughes）、哈利伯顿（Halliburton ） 和斯伦贝谢（SLB）警告称，由于 油价下跌，今年勘探、钻井和生产投资将放缓。自特 ...

智通财经APP获悉，在线旅游公司Booking(BKNG.US)下调了全年收入预期，理由是经济不确定性增 加。财报显示，Booking一季度营收为 47.6 亿美元，同比增长 7.7%，超出市场预期；调整后每股收益 为24.81美元，华尔街预期为17.45美元。 该公司旗下拥有Kayak和Priceline等旅游品牌。首席财务官Ewout Steenbergen告诉分析师，Booking正在 将其全年总预订量和收入增长预期下调至"按固定汇率计算的中高个位数"，这一预期与"至少8%"的增 速有所下调。他表示下调原因是宏观环境"不确定性增加"。 另一方面，该公司前一季度的业绩基本符合预期。截至3月31日的三个月，预订间夜数增至3.19亿，超 过分析师预期。包括税费在内的总旅游预订额为467亿美元，预期为465亿美元。 投资者正密切关注在线旅游公司本季度的业绩，以衡量美国消费者的信心。 目前投资者担心特朗普的关税政策可能导致经济衰退。美国航空和达美航空等美国航空公司以贸易政策 的不确定性为由，撤回了2025年的业绩指引，而西南航空公司正在控制增长计划，预计国内休闲旅游需 求将减弱。 Jefferies分析师John ...

Snap CEO Evan Spiegel speaks during the Semafor World Economy Summit 2025 at Conrad Washington on April 23, 2025 in Washington, DC.Snap reported better-than-expected first-quarter revenue Tuesday but declined to provide guidance, citing macroeconomic uncertainties that could weigh on advertising demand.Shares fell more than 11% in after-hours trading.Here is how the company did compared with Wall Street's expectations:Earnings per share: Loss of 8 cents. That figure is not comparable to analysts' estimates. ...

金十数据4月29日讯，美国股市周二开盘走低，势将结束连续5天的上涨势头，芝加哥期权交易所波动率 指数徘徊在25附近。白宫有关（调整汽车）关税的言论吓坏了投资者，多家公司警告称经济不确定性上 升。Tigress Financial Partners首席投资官Ivan Feinseth表示，易的不确定性继续推动全球市场和经济的不 确定性，在情况明朗之前，美国的贸易仍将波动。库存被搁置，希望一两个贸易协议将为更多的协议创 造模板。汇丰以Nicole Inui为首的策略师将标准普尔500指数的年终目标从6700点下调至5600点，以反 映美国经济增长放缓和关税压力对企业盈利的影响。预计在关税动荡消退、美联储开始放松政策、以 及/或通胀压力未能积聚之前，市场将在衰退和滞胀之间摇摆。 随着关税担忧升温，美股将结束连续五天的涨势 ...

Core Insights - PayPal's fiscal Q1 2025 financial report shows a mixed performance with revenue slightly missing expectations but adjusted earnings per share beating them significantly [2][5]. Financial Performance - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $7.8 billion, a 1% increase from $7.7 billion in Q1 2024, but it missed analyst expectations [2][5]. - Adjusted earnings per share rose by 23% year over year, from $1.08 in Q1 2024 to $1.33 in Q1 2025, exceeding expectations [2][5]. - Total payment volume (TPV) increased by 3% year over year, reaching $417.2 billion compared to $403.9 billion in the previous year [2][3]. - Active accounts grew by 2%, from 427 million to 436 million, showing improvement from a year-over-year decline reported previously [2][3]. Business Growth Drivers - Venmo revenue growth accelerated to 20% during the quarter, indicating strong performance in this segment [4]. - Debit card payment volume saw a significant increase of over 60%, contributing positively to overall business growth [4]. - The company maintained its full-year guidance for earnings and transaction margin, expecting $6 billion to $7 billion in free cash flow and approximately $6 billion in share buybacks, with $1.5 billion already completed in Q1 [4]. Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, PayPal's stock experienced a decline of about 3.5%, reflecting investor concerns despite the positive adjusted earnings [5]. - The market reaction indicates that investors were not entirely satisfied with the revenue performance, which was below consensus expectations [5]. Future Outlook - PayPal's performance for the remainder of 2025 is expected to be influenced by the overall health of the global economy, with management opting not to raise full-year guidance due to economic uncertainties [6]. - Monitoring consumer spending trends will be crucial, as the company's innovative improvements may not yield favorable results if consumer spending remains weak [7].

报告显示，2025年4月，28.3%的受访德国企业表示难以对自身业务前景作出预判，较3月的24.8%明显 上升。这一比例为2022年11月以来的最高值。该数据被视为德国经济不确定性的直接反映。 报告显示，工业领域的信心受损最为严重，38.7%的企业表示难以预测自身发展，较上月激增约11个百 分点。其中，电子行业与汽车制造业的不确定感更甚，比例均超过45%。零售业中，也有约三分之一企 业表示预测困难。（央视新闻） 德国知名智库伊弗经济研究所当地时间4月29日发布的最新月度调查结果显示，德国企业对未来经营走 势的不确定性显著上升，其中制造业、电子业和汽车工业尤为突出。专家分析认为，美方持续施压的单 边贸易政策是当前不确定性加剧的主要外部因素之一。 ...