周二公布的数据显示，韩国经济实现了逾一年来的最快增速，其第三季度GDP的增长幅度超过了分析师 的预期。据韩国央行的初步估计，三季度GDP同比增长1.7%，而经济学家们预计的增长率为1.5%。该 国经济在第二季度增长了0.6%。韩国银行的数据表明，经济增长主要得益于出口以及制造业。其中， 出口同比增长了6%，制造业同比增长了3.3%。 建筑业是经济发展的最大拖累因素，在报告所涵盖的季度中，其规模较上年同期萎缩了8.1%。 商品和服务出口的增长得益于半导体和汽车出货量的增加，这是自2024年第三季度以来增长速度最快的 一次。 李在明采访中表示："美国当然会尽力维护自身利益，但绝不能达到会导致韩国遭受灾难性后果的程 度。" 7 月，韩国与特朗普达成了一项贸易协议，该协议规定韩国对美国出口商品一律征收15%的关税——这 是特朗普此前宣布的25%税率的下调版本。作为回报，首尔方面承诺向美国投资3500亿美元。 李在明将于本周晚些时候在韩国举行的亚太经济合作组织峰会的间隙与特朗普会面。 韩国央行在上周四的声明中表示，得益于消费的持续复苏以及出口的强劲增长，经济状况持续向好。韩 国央行预测，2025年全年的经济增长率为0. ...

Group 1 - The easing of China-US trade tensions has led to a significant increase in market optimism, resulting in a rebound across global markets, including stock prices, oil, and copper [1][2][3] - Asian stock markets saw substantial gains, with the KOSPI index surpassing 4000 points and the Nikkei index reaching a historical high of 50,000 points, reflecting investor confidence in improved trade relations [2] - The positive sentiment from the China-US trade discussions has also influenced commodity prices, with agricultural products like soybeans and corn expected to benefit from a potential trade agreement [3][4] Group 2 - The progress in China-US trade negotiations has alleviated concerns about economic weakness, leading to a rise in US stock futures and European stock index futures [3][5] - China's industrial profits showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2% for the first nine months of the year, with a notable 21.6% growth in September, exceeding market expectations [4] - The stability and cooperation between China and the US are crucial for global market confidence, as their trade accounts for nearly one-fifth of the global total, highlighting the interconnectedness of supply chains [5]

Core Viewpoint - Cyprus is projected to achieve a real GDP of €29.42 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.9% driven by strong performances in information and communication, hospitality and catering, construction, and wholesale and retail trade including motor vehicle repairs [1] Economic Growth - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its growth forecasts for Cyprus, predicting a growth rate of 2.9% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026 [1] - The strong economic growth in Cyprus is attributed to key sectors such as information and communication, hospitality, construction, and retail trade [1] Inflation and Unemployment - The inflation rate in Cyprus is expected to significantly decrease to 0.7% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026, which are the lowest levels in the Eurozone [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to be 4.5% in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026, indicating a relatively low level of unemployment [1] Global Economic Context - The IMF forecasts a global economic growth rate of 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, with developed economies expected to grow at a rate of 1.6% [1] - Ongoing trade tensions and uncertainties are anticipated to continue impacting the global economic outlook [1]

Economic Growth - The GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2023 is 5.2% year-on-year, with a 4.8% growth in the third quarter, indicating resilience in economic growth [1] - Industrial production showed a strong performance, with the industrial added value increasing by 6.5% year-on-year in September, up 1.3% from the previous month [1] Demand Side - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in real estate and infrastructure investments, while manufacturing investment grew by 4% [2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3% year-on-year in September, but this marks a 0.4 percentage point decline from the previous month, continuing a four-month downward trend [2] - Service consumption remains a bright spot, with total service consumption growth rising to 5.2%, contributing 2.7 percentage points to GDP growth in the third quarter [2] Structural Issues - There are evident signs of weakness in housing prices, with all 70 major cities reporting declines in second-hand housing prices in September, and real estate investment down by 13.9% year-on-year [3] - The GDP deflator index is at -1.07%, remaining negative for over ten consecutive quarters, indicating ongoing structural issues that require further policy support [3] - To ensure a strong start for economic growth in the following year, it is necessary to enhance growth-stabilizing policies [3]

Core Insights - Shandong's economic total is set to surpass 10 trillion yuan, reflecting significant growth and development in the province's economic capabilities [2] Economic Growth - Shandong's GDP increased from 7.44 trillion yuan in 2020 to 9.86 trillion yuan in 2024, raising its share of the national economy from 7.19% to 7.31% [2] - Per capita GDP rose from 73,400 yuan in 2020 to 97,600 yuan in 2024, with the urban-rural income ratio decreasing from 2.33 to 2.14 [2] - Life expectancy increased from 79.1 years to 80.5 years over four years [2] Clean Energy Development - Shandong has accelerated the construction of large-scale clean energy bases, with non-fossil energy generation capacity reaching 134 million kilowatts, accounting for 53.4% of total capacity, a 22.6 percentage point increase since 2020 [2] - Non-fossil energy generation is expected to exceed 210 billion kWh this year, equating to a reduction of 160 million tons of CO2 emissions and saving approximately 60 million tons of standard coal [2] Environmental and Resource Management - Energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased by 18.5% over four years, with energy consumption growth at 3.9% supporting a 6.1% economic growth [3] - Water usage per unit of GDP dropped by 21.3% compared to 2020, achieving early completion of planned targets [3] - The quality of the Yellow River's water has maintained a Class II standard for nine consecutive years [3] Agricultural and Rural Development - Shandong's total grain production has remained stable at over 110 billion jin for four consecutive years, with agricultural output reaching 1.28 trillion yuan [3] - The province leads the nation in agricultural product exports for 26 years, with 2,070 rural revitalization areas cultivated [3] Economic Reforms and Business Environment - Shandong has implemented significant reforms in state-owned enterprises, finance, and taxation, enhancing the business environment [4] - The province has achieved a 90% online service rate for government affairs, promoting efficiency in administrative processes [4] - Shandong is home to 52 companies in the "China Top 500 Enterprises" list and 71 in the "China Top 500 Manufacturing Enterprises" list, with a 33% increase in listed companies since 2020 [4] Employment and Social Services - A total of 5.994 million new urban jobs were created, with 1.568 million positions filled through public welfare programs [5] - Shandong has been designated as a pilot area for rural education revitalization, leading the nation in the number of quality balanced counties for compulsory education [6] - The province has achieved a 90% rate for direct settlement of medical expenses across regions, enhancing healthcare accessibility [6]

Economic Overview - Guangdong's GDP for the first three quarters of this year reached 10.517698 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [1][3] - This is the first time Guangdong's GDP has surpassed the 10 trillion yuan mark in the first three quarters, comparable to the total GDP of 10.767107 trillion yuan for the entire year of 2019 [1][3] Sector Performance - The primary industry added value was 383.85 billion yuan, growing by 4.5%; the secondary industry added value was 3.927075 trillion yuan, growing by 2.7%; and the tertiary industry added value was 6.206773 trillion yuan, growing by 4.9% [3] - Industrial added value for large-scale industries in Guangdong increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with a 1.3 percentage point increase compared to the period from January to August [3] New Growth Drivers - Advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors saw added value growth of 5.4% and 6.4%, respectively, accounting for 55.5% and 33.8% of total industrial added value [3] - Specific sectors such as electronic and communication equipment manufacturing, computer and office equipment manufacturing, and advanced equipment manufacturing grew by 7.0%, 11.0%, and 7.8% respectively [3] - Production of certain high-tech and new energy products experienced rapid growth, with industrial robots, service robots, civilian drones, and 3D printing equipment increasing by 33.7%, 15.2%, 44.8%, and 40.3% respectively [3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Guangdong declined by 14.1% year-on-year, with real estate development investment dropping by 20.6% and new commercial housing sales area decreasing by 12.5% [4] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Guangdong grew by 2.8% year-on-year, with significant growth in the replacement-related goods sector [5] - Retail sales of cultural and office supplies, home appliances, and communication equipment increased by 21.0%, 31.0%, and 16.5% respectively [5] Government Response - The Guangdong Provincial Committee emphasized the need to maintain confidence and address economic challenges with actionable measures to ensure a strong finish to the fourth quarter and achieve annual economic and social development goals [6]

Group 1: Real Estate Market Overview - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with key metrics showing alarming declines, marking the largest drop since 2021 [2] - National real estate development investment has seen a substantial year-on-year decrease, remaining in negative growth since April of the previous year [2] - Land sales revenue has halved compared to the peak in 2021, leading to a drastic reduction in developers' willingness to acquire land [2] Group 2: Sales and Pricing Trends - New housing sales, both in terms of area and revenue, are continuously declining, with no regions spared from this trend [2] - The once-promising "golden September and silver October" sales period has lost its luster, with home prices experiencing widespread declines [2] - The second-hand housing market is struggling, with sellers forced to lower prices to attract buyers [2] Group 3: Government Response - In response to the market downturn, major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have implemented policies to stimulate the market, but the effectiveness has been limited as of September [4] Group 4: Changing Demand Dynamics - The demand structure has shifted, with wealthy individuals refraining from purchases, middle-class consumers hesitant due to economic uncertainty, and ordinary people unable to afford high prices [7] - Younger generations are increasingly unwilling to compromise their future for high housing costs, preferring to invest in lifestyle rather than property [9] - Residents' leverage has reached its limit, with many families already stretched thin financially, making it difficult to take on additional debt for home purchases [11] Group 5: Demographic Trends - A noticeable trend of population decline is emerging, leading to reduced housing demand as empty properties accumulate [13] Group 6: Economic Context - Despite the real estate slump, the overall macroeconomic environment remains stable, with GDP growth reaching 5.2% in the first three quarters, surpassing market expectations [14] - Consumption has been a significant driver of economic growth, contributing over half to the overall performance [14] Group 7: Future Outlook - The path to a rebound in the real estate market requires finding a new balance between economic growth, public income, and housing prices, which may take considerable time and effort [15]

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam's GDP growth reached 8.23% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with a cumulative growth of 7.85% for the first three quarters, marking the fastest growth in three years despite a complex global economic environment [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth Drivers - The strong performance of the manufacturing sector is the core driver of Vietnam's economic growth, supported by robust exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) [1][3]. - Vietnam's total goods import and export volume reached $680.66 billion in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, with exports growing by 16% and imports by 18.8%, resulting in a trade surplus of $16.82 billion [1][2]. Group 2: Export Performance - Exports are a key engine for Vietnam's economic growth, with export value nearing $349 billion in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a 16% year-on-year increase [2]. - Major export categories include computers, electronic products, and components, with export values of $38.41 billion, and mobile phones and components at $22.4 billion [2]. Group 3: Foreign Direct Investment - Vietnam attracted a total of $28.54 billion in foreign investment by September 30, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, with actual FDI reaching $18.8 billion, up 8.5%, marking a five-year high [2]. - The processing and manufacturing sector accounted for 82.8% of the total actual foreign investment, with additional capital for existing projects soaring by 122% to $8.95 billion [2]. Group 4: Domestic Consumption and Business Activity - Domestic consumption has significantly contributed to economic growth, with over 230,000 new or resumed businesses in the first nine months of 2025, a 26.4% year-on-year increase [3]. - The survey of manufacturing and processing enterprises indicated that 40.8% expect improved conditions in Q4, while 41.7% anticipate stable operations [3]. Group 5: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The central bank of Vietnam has maintained stable monetary policy to address inflation and exchange rate fluctuations, demonstrating economic resilience despite currency volatility [3]. - The strong economic growth in Q3 2025 reflects Vietnam's adaptability to global challenges, with coordinated development across industries and a focus on achieving a 10% growth target for 2026 [3][4].

俄罗斯央行最新动作。 10月24日，俄罗斯央行宣布将关键利率下调50个基点至16.50%。这是俄罗斯央行年内第四次降息，关 键利率已经从年初21%下掉至16.5%，累计下调了450个基点。 俄罗斯央行表示，当前通胀的基本指标没有显著变化，年化的CPI仍保持在4%的通胀目标之上，且通胀 预期仍然很高。 俄罗斯央行表示，将维持必要的紧缩货币条件，以使通胀回到目标水平。在基准条件中，这意味着2026 年平均关键利率在13.0%—15.0%之间，因此长期紧缩货币政策仍然继续维持。关键利率的进一步决定 将取决于通胀放缓的可持续性和通胀预期。 数据显示，俄罗斯第三季度CPI上涨6.4%，核心CPI上涨4.4%，均比二季度有所上涨。俄罗斯央行认 为，三季度通胀上涨在很大程度上受到一次性因素的影响，其中包括汽油价格上涨，以及秋季水果和蔬 菜价格上涨速度快于往常。 俄罗斯央行表示，当前的通胀压力将在2025年底和2026年初暂时增加，原因包括价格调整，和对即将到 来的增值税上涨导致的通胀预期。随着这些因素的消退，通胀将会缓解。 除物价外，俄罗斯经济增长与平衡增长路径的偏差正在缩小。高频数据和调查指标显示，三季度整体经 济活动增 ...

A prolonged shutdown of the U.S. government amid a standoff over funding between Republicans and Democrats in Congress could dent economic growth in the fourth quarter, but much of the lost output would be recovered when normal operations resume. ...