Employment Data Summary - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 110,000[2] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and previous 4.2%[2] - Labor force participation rate was 62.3%, slightly below the expected and previous 62.4%[2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3% and previous 0.4%[2] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm data release, U.S. stock markets rose, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones increasing by 0.8%, 1.0%, and 0.8% respectively[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6.3 basis points to 4.34%[2] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.4% to 97.1, while spot gold prices fell by 0.9% to $3326.1 per ounce[2] Fed Rate Expectations - The probability of a rate cut in July dropped from 25% to 0% after the non-farm data release[2] - The probability of a September rate cut decreased from 100% to approximately 73%[2] - The expected number of rate cuts for the year was revised down from 2.6 to 2.1[2] ADP vs Non-Farm Data - The ADP report showed a loss of 33,000 jobs in June, significantly below the expected gain of 95,000[3] - The divergence between ADP and non-farm data is attributed to differences in statistical coverage and the impact of tariffs[3] - Non-farm data is considered more reliable as it covers approximately 80% of employment positions compared to ADP's 17%[3] Economic Outlook - The strong non-farm data suggests resilience in the U.S. economy, supporting previous assessments[4] - The report indicates that if tariffs do not escalate further, a soft landing for the economy remains likely[4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance given manageable economic downturn risks and rising inflation concerns[4]

鲍威尔：希望能向下一任美联储主席移交一个形势良好的美国经济。 ...

智通财经7月1日电，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，认为谨慎的做法是等待并了解更多信息。只要美国经济保 持坚挺，谨慎的做法是等待。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：只要美国经济保持坚挺，谨慎的做法是等待。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：美国经济处于相当良好的状态。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：美国经济状况相当良好。 通胀表现正如我们预期和希望的那样。 我们预计夏季通胀数据将上升。 我们认为谨慎的做法是等待并了解更多信息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "big and beautiful" tax reform plan promoted by President Trump has passed in the U.S. Senate, which includes a $4.5 trillion tax cut and an increase in the U.S. debt ceiling [2] Group 1: Economic Impact - President Trump believes the tax reform will significantly stimulate U.S. economic growth and alleviate partisan conflicts surrounding the debt ceiling [2] - Some business leaders, including Tesla's CEO Elon Musk, argue that the increasing fiscal deficit and expanding national debt will not boost the economy but may lead to greater economic risks [2] Group 2: Policy Implications - The tax reform plan includes the elimination of subsidies for the renewable energy sector and cuts to healthcare subsidies, which could negatively impact emerging industries and the general public [2] - The plan is viewed as a crucial part of Trump's broader agenda to "make America great again," similar to his previously implemented tariff policies [2] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Initial implementation of the tax reform may provide some economic stimulus and support; however, the long-term damage to the U.S. economy could outweigh the benefits, potentially accelerating economic decline [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. economy is showing widespread improvements across various aspects, as noted by Joanne Hsu, the director of the University of Michigan survey [1] Group 1 - Recent easing of tariff levels and trade policy volatility has contributed to consumer confidence, leading to a reduction in their concerns about potential economic downturns [1]

昨日晚间公布的美国当周初请数据不及预期，美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值进一步下修至-0.5%，市场投资者对美 国未来经济以及美联储政策出现乐观与担忧并存情况，现货黄金市场昨日再度维持区间震荡格局，昨日市场最高至 3350.27美元/盎司，最低至3309.94美元/盎司，最终收盘于3327.76美元/盎司，本交易日亚洲早盘开盘后市场维持在小区 间震荡，目前交投于3322.00美元/盎司附近。 对于后市热点，需要继续关注贸易关税情况，同时要密切关注地缘政治的发展情况以及美联储未来货币政策的动向和美 债收益率情况。 亚洲早盘策略： 现货白银市场 小时图目前处于震荡阶段，短线15分钟图周期处于震荡阶段，震荡区间36.260-36.830，操作上可在这个区间内高抛低 吸。 若市场价格跌破36.260美元/盎司的支撑位，可择机建立空单头寸，并将下方目标价位设定为35.800-35.400美元/盎司。 若市场成功上破36.830美元/盎司的阻力位，则可果断跟进多单，上方目标价位有望触及37.200-37.600美元/盎司。（止损 为0.200美元/盎司空间） 现货黄金市场 小时图目前处于震荡阶段，短线15分钟图处于震荡 ...

新华财经北京6月27日电 美国国债收益率周四（6月26日）继续走低，10年期美债收益率下跌4个基点， 报4.25%；2年期美债收益率跌超6个基点，报3.72%，均创5月2日以来新低。 当天发布的其他数据显示，美国经济面临通胀压力犹存、企业盈利承压、就业市场不稳定以及政策方向 不明的复杂局面。 美国一季度核心个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数年化季环比终值达3.5%，高于预期的3.4%。衡量国内总 购买价格的指数增长3.4%，个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数上涨3.7%，核心PCE价格指数同样上涨 3.5%，且均较此前估值有所上调，这意味着物价上涨趋势仍在延续，对投资环境的稳定性形成挑战。 5月耐用品订单数据呈现积极信号，环比初值高达16.4%，创2014年7月以来最大增幅，远超预期值 8.5%。剔除运输设备后，5月份耐用品订单环比增长0.5%，核心资本货物订单（衡量企业设备投资的关 键指标）5月上涨1.7%，均好于预期和前值。 截至6月21日当周，经季节性调整的失业救济金初次申请人数下降1万至23.6万，好于经济学家预期。但 裁员数量有所增加，且招聘活动疲软，导致许多失业者难以找到新工作。截至6月14日当周，续请失 ...