Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Fed's meeting signaled policy divergence, making the short - term interest - rate cut path uncertain. After the weak non - farm employment data on August 1st, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September increased, with the probability of a 25bp cut exceeding 85%. The overall labor market showed structural weakness, and after the data release, the US Treasury yields declined across the board [12]. - The US Treasury maintains a stable long - and medium - term bond issuance rhythm, but the increase in the proportion of short - term bonds has a greater impact on liquidity. The market sentiment swings between "economic recession" and "policy game", and the short - term volatility of US Treasury assets has increased. It is expected that the US Treasury market will face intensified fluctuations around September [13][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. US Treasury Yield Review - As of August 1st, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped 21bp in two weeks, falling to 4.23%. Compared with two weeks ago, the 2 - year yield decreased by 19bp, and the 30 - year yield dropped 19bp [5]. 2. US Treasury Market Changes - In actual bond issuance, the duration of US Treasury issuance declined slightly in late July, with 68.44 billion for 2 - year, 69.88 billion for 5 - year, and 43.92 billion for 7 - year bonds. The US had a fiscal surplus of 27.01 billion dollars in June, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit slightly declined to 1.90 trillion dollars [5]. 3. Derivatives Market Structure - The net short position in US Treasury futures decreased slightly. As of July 29th, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers rose to 5.681 million lots. The federal funds rate futures market shifted from a net long to a net short position of - 0.13 million lots, reflecting an increased demand for hedging against the expected decline in interest rates [5]. 4. US Dollar Liquidity and US Economy - **Monetary Policy**: In July 2025, the Fed kept the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%, in line with market expectations. The policy statement recognized a slowdown in economic activity in the first half of the year, and there was a divergence of opinions within the Fed, with two governors advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut being rejected [6]. - **Fiscal Policy**: As of July 30th, the US Treasury's TGA deposit balance increased by 107.361 billion dollars in two weeks, and the Fed's reverse repurchase tool contracted by 49 billion dollars in two weeks, leading to uncertainty in the short - term liquidity buffer space [6]. - **Economic Situation**: As of July 26th, the Fed's weekly economic indicator was 2.56 (2.34 two weeks ago), indicating a short - term improvement in the economy after stability [6]. 5. US Treasury Yield Trends - The Fed's meeting signaled policy divergence, and the short - term rate - cut path is uncertain. After the weak non - farm employment data on August 1st, the market's expectation of a September rate cut increased, and the US Treasury yields declined across the board, with the 2 - year yield dropping 25bp in a single day [12]. 6. US Treasury Issuance Policy - The US Treasury maintains a stable long - and medium - term bond issuance rhythm but increases the proportion of short - term bonds. The new refinancing plan is 125 billion dollars, with an increase in short - term Treasury issuance and a decrease in long - and medium - term bonds. Relying more on short - term debt financing may increase fiscal financing volatility and weaken the efficiency of monetary policy transmission [13].

原创 经济学家洪灝 洪灝的宏观策略 2025年08月02日 市场质疑统计数据的声音四起。很多人认为出现如此大的就业数据下修，那么一定是统计局局长水平不够，或者是就业数据被掺水了，并据此而 对于特朗普的斩首行动拍手称快。如果各位还记得，在不到一年前，2024年的9月大选前，特朗普的手下干将Rubio认为当时的就业数据显著地低 估了拜登时期经济困难的状况。也就是说，卢比奥不到一年前认为美国的就业数据太高了，美化了拜登的执政政绩。那么，现在特朗普又认为就 业数据太低了，并以此为借口炒掉了劳力统计局局长，不免有选择性执法之嫌。顺便说一下，这位局长是拜登任命的。 上一次美国劳动统计局局长被炒，还是1932年大萧条时期。当时由于局长不同意胡佛的经济政策，胡佛就把他炒了，而大萧条继续。 特朗普不仅仅炒掉了局座，他还在自己的社交媒体上继续对于美联储主席鲍威尔攻击施压。这是过去几年来，特朗普在自己的社交媒体上攻击鲍 威尔最频繁的一次，并在上周实地视察了美联储斥资30亿美元的装修工程，当面施压。特朗普认为鲍威尔早就应该降息，但补充说不"会马上炒掉 鲍威尔"，然后又加了一句"如果不是担心市场波动，早就把他炒了"。随后，媒体又爆出了 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the significant downward revision of June non-farm data reflects substantial disruptions to the U.S. economy due to tariffs, suggesting that the resilience of the U.S. economy should not be overestimated, and the direction of interest rate cuts remains highly certain [2][4][17] - In July, non-farm employment increased by 73,000, which is below the expected 110,000, and the previous value was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, indicating pressure on the U.S. job market [6][11][22] - The unemployment rate in July rose to 4.2%, up from 4.1% in the previous month, while the average hourly wage increased by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.8% [1][6][31] Group 2 - In July, the financial activities, healthcare, and retail sectors added 15,000, 79,000, and 16,000 jobs respectively, showing a stable demand in the service sector [3][22] - The manufacturing sector has seen negative job growth for three consecutive months, indicating insufficient production willingness among enterprises [3][22] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.2% in July, down from 62.3% in the previous month, with a notable decline in employment willingness among younger demographics [26][31] Group 3 - The downward revision of June non-farm data was primarily due to significant adjustments in government, leisure, and hotel employment, which collectively accounted for a 90,000 downward revision, representing nearly 70% of the total revision [12][17] - The cumulative downward revision for May and June non-farm data reached 258,000, while the July employment figure of 73,000 is a significant drop compared to the average monthly increase of over 100,000 in the first quarter [4][17] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times in 2025, with an 80% probability for the first cut in September [4][21][37] Group 4 - The average hourly wage growth has shown an upward trend, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in July, higher than the previous 0.2% [37][39] - The service sector's job growth in July rebounded to 96,000, compared to a previous value of 16,000, indicating a relatively stable demand in the service industry [22][31] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with second-quarter GDP growth at 3.0%, driven by a "import rush" effect, while core GDP growth has declined [18][22]

Employment Data Summary - In July 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly below the expected 110,000, and the previous value was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000[1][11]. - The unemployment rate in July 2025 was 4.2%, matching expectations but up from the previous 4.1%[1][14]. - Average hourly earnings rose by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.8% and revised from a previous increase of 3.7%[1][14]. Data Revision Insights - The June non-farm payrolls were revised down by a total of 258,000, with significant downward adjustments in government, leisure, and construction sectors, accounting for 90,000 of the total revision[2][12]. - The downward revision reflects the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy, indicating a decline in the accuracy of the "birth-death model" used for employment predictions[2][5]. Sector Performance - In July, the financial activities, education, and healthcare sectors added 15,000, 79,000, and 16,000 jobs respectively, showing stability in service sector demand[3][27]. - The goods-producing sector continued to show negative job growth for three consecutive months, indicating weak production intentions among businesses[3][28]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.2% in July, down from 62.3% in June, with a notable decline in employment willingness among younger demographics[4][35]. - The number of unemployed individuals increased by 221,000 in July, contributing to the rise in the U3 unemployment rate to 4.2%[4][35]. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate rate cuts, with market predictions indicating three rate cuts in 2025, starting in September with an 83.4% probability[5][26]. - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with the second quarter GDP growth at 3.0%, driven by a "import rush" effect, but core GDP growth showing signs of decline[5][23].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a deterioration in the U.S. labor market, with the unemployment rate rising and job creation falling short of expectations, leading to significant declines in the stock market and the U.S. dollar index [1] Group 2 - In July, the U.S. unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, indicating a cooling labor market [1] - The number of non-farm jobs added in May and June was significantly revised downward, further reflecting the weakening employment situation [1] - Concerns about the U.S. economy and job market have intensified, resulting in a more than 1% drop in the dollar index and a decline of over 12 basis points in the yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September surged from 37.7% to 75.5% according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool [1]

财料 20 10 0 2025-07 公布值 7.3万人 11万人 预期值 ·失业率 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 20% 4.2% 10 4% 4%3.9 3.9% 3.9%99 2025-07 3.8% 3.1% 4.2% 公布值 3.6% 4.20% 预期值 3.4% ·平均每小时工资月率 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0 1%0 4% 4% 7月新增就业创近10个月新低，前值"滑坡式"下修！美联储9月降息势在必行？一图读懂7月美国非农数据 0% 到9月 到9月 到10月 到10月 降息25个基点 降息25个基点 降息50个基点 维持利率不变 樓 率 概率 相驱 概率 04 | 市场反应 WS.J 华尔街日报 美国7月非农新增就业岗位7.3万个,低于经济学家预期的10 万个。失业率从4.1%微升至4.2%。在这份报告发布之际, 经济学家与政策制定者正试图厘清两种相悖的经济叙事何者 更接近真相。乐观派认为经济展现惊人韧性:关税威胁虽已 渗透部分商品价格,但尚未引发显著通胀;年初持观望态度 的消费者正重拾信心。悲观派则指出裂痕正在扩大： 宝洁、 C ...

智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发表研报称，二季度"抢进口"效应减弱，美国进口环比折年率降 至-30.3%，导致净出口对GDP拖累大幅收敛，是二季度经济增速转正的重要原因。但另一方面，消费与 投资则难掩疲弱，其中二季度美国消费者信心指数低迷，相应地个人消费表现较弱，1.4%的环比增速 为2024年以来的次低值，私人投资环比折年率也降至-15.6%，因此不宜高估本次经济数据的韧性。光大 证券认为美联储在下半年重启降息操作的概率较大。 2025年7月30日，美国经济分析局公布2025年二季度GDP数据初值：(1)二季度实际GDP年化季率初值 +3.0%，预期+2.4%，前值-0.5%；(2)二季度实际个人消费支出季率初值+1.4%，预期+1.5%，前值 +0.5%；(3)二季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值+2.5%，预期+2.3%，前值+3.5%。 美国2025年二季度消费环比增速反弹，主要来自"抢进口"效应减弱下的净出口贡献，消费与投资则难掩 疲弱。一方面，二季度"抢进口"效应减弱，美国进口环比折年率降至-30.3%，导致净出口对GDP拖累大 幅收敛，是二季度经济增速转正的重要原因。但另一方面，消费与投资则难掩疲 ...

点击注册小程序 2025 年 7 月 30 日，美股股指表现分化，道指、标普 500 分别下跌 0.4%、 0.1%，纳斯达克指数上涨 0.1%。10 年期国债收益率上行 4 个 bp 至 4.38%， 2 年期国债收益率上行 8 个 bp 至 3.94%。 事件： 2025年7月30日，美国经济分析局公布2025年二季度GDP数据初值： 核心观点： 美国2025年二季度消费环比增速反弹，主要来自"抢进口"效应减弱下的净出口贡献，消费与投资则难掩疲弱。 一方面，二季度"抢进口"效应减弱，美国进口环比折年率降至-30.3%，导致净出口对GDP拖累大幅收敛，是二 季度经济增速转正的重要原因。但另一方面，消费与投资则难掩疲弱，其中二季度美国消费者信心指数低迷， 相应地个人消费表现较弱，1.4%的环比增速为2024年以来的次低值，私人投资环比折年率也降至-15.6%，因此 不宜高估本次经济数据的韧性。 从降息角度来看，美国经济增速转正，但消费与投资表现低迷，指向美国经济仍在下行通道中，美联储在下半 年重启降息的概率依然存在。就经济数据本身而言，客观上看，二季度经济数据高于预期，缓和经济衰退担 忧，相应地美联储选择在7 ...

Economic Growth and Indicators - The U.S. GDP for the second quarter showed an annualized growth rate of 3%, reversing the first quarter's contraction of -0.5% and significantly exceeding the market expectation of 2.6% [1][2] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index recorded an annualized quarter-on-quarter initial value of 2.5%, down from 3.5% in the previous quarter but still above the expected 2.3%, indicating a rebound in inflationary pressures [1][2] Factors Influencing Economic Performance - A significant decline in imports and a rapid increase in consumer spending were identified as key factors for the unexpected growth in the second quarter [2] - Net exports contributed 5 percentage points to GDP due to new tariff measures that led to a decrease in imports, contrasting with the previous quarter's surge in imports driven by export countries [2] Employment and Consumer Spending - Consumer spending grew by 1.4% in the second quarter, slightly below the expected 1.5%, suggesting a gradual weakening of real demand [2] - The ADP employment report for July showed an increase of 104,000 jobs, surpassing the expectation of 76,000, but still falling short of last year's average levels, reflecting cautious hiring decisions amid tariff policy uncertainties [2][4] Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the current interest rates during the July meeting, with Chairman Powell indicating that it is too early to predict a rate cut in September due to ongoing uncertainties regarding tariffs and inflation [4] - The Fed's decision comes in the context of a significant decline in the dollar's value, which has dropped over 10% this year due to weak economic data and concerns over a potential recession [4] Market Outlook - The unexpected economic data for the second quarter has alleviated recession fears, while the clarity in trade negotiations among developed economies is expected to influence the future trajectory of the dollar and gold prices [5]

2025 年 7 月 31 日 总量研究 "抢进口"效应减弱，难掩美国经济隐忧 ——2025 年二季度美国经济数据点评 | | 要点 | | --- | --- | | 作者 | 事件： | | 分析师：高瑞东 | 2025 年 7 月 30 日，美国经济分析局公布 2025 年二季度 GDP 数据初值： | | 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 | | | 010-56513066 | 【1】二季度实际 GDP 年化季率初值+3.0%，预期+2.4%，前值-0.5%； | | gaoruidong@ebscn.com | 【2】二季度实际个人消费支出季率初值+1.4%，预期+1.5%，前值+0.5%； | | 分析师：周欣平 | 【3】二季度核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率初值+2.5%，预期+2.3%，前值+3.5%。 | | 执业证书编号：S0930525070005 | | | 010-57378026 | | | zhouxinping@ebscn.com | | | 相关研报 | 核心观点： | | 关税滞胀效应显现，美国经济增速转负—— | | | 2025 年一季度美国经济数据点评（2 ...