美联储FOMC声明及主席鲍威尔新闻发布会要点总结：维持利率不变 点阵图显示预计年内将降息两次 ①美联储将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%不变，自1月以来第四次决定维持利率不变。 ②美联储点阵图显示，2025年预计将降息两次，预计2026年和2027年各降息25个基点。 ③鲍威尔表示，当前的政策立场做好灵活应对准备。 ④鲍威尔表示，美联储认为维持当前利率水平是适当的。 ⑤鲍威尔表示，终有一天美联储可能会达到一个适合降息的位置。 ⑥鲍威尔表示，关税预期的上升使美联储对持续降息持更为谨慎的态度。 ⑦鲍威尔表示，当前的货币政策已略微收紧，仍适度具有限制性。 ⑧鲍威尔表示，美联储货币政策必须具有前瞻性。 ⑨鲍威尔表示，加息并非基本预期。 二、通胀方面 ①FOMC经济预期显示，2025、2026、2027年底核心PCE通胀预期中值分别为3.1%、2.4%、2.1%。 ②鲍威尔表示，通胀水平一直略高于2%。 ③鲍威尔表示，预计5月份总体PCE上涨2.3%，核心指数上涨2.6%。 ④鲍威尔表示，通胀数据温和部分源于房地产市场降温。 ⑤鲍威尔表示，美联储预期未来几个月内通胀将会显著上升。 ⑥鲍威尔表示，与2024年9月降息 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：美国经济抵御了各种预期的疲软，表现强劲。 ...

Economic Overview - In May, U.S. retail sales fell by 0.9%, worse than the expected decline of 0.6%, primarily due to a drop in automotive and parts consumption[4] - Industrial production decreased by 0.2% in May, below the market expectation of 0%, with utilities experiencing a significant drop of 2.9%[4] Retail Sector Insights - Automotive sales continued to decline, dropping from 5.3% in March to -3.5% in May, reflecting a weakening demand for durable goods[4] - Non-durable goods consumption showed signs of recovery, with clothing and online shopping sales increasing from 0% and 0.4% in April to 0.8% and 0.9% in May, respectively[4] Inflation and Federal Reserve Outlook - Inflation is expected to rebound in Q3 due to rising oil prices and tariff impacts, despite a general economic slowdown[1] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain interest rates steady in June and July, with potential rate cuts in September and either November or December[1]

Employment Market - The employment market is showing structural weakness, with a significant cooling in supply-demand relationships. The job vacancy rate is currently at 4.4%, which is at the 12th percentile since 2018, slightly below the 4.5% average from 2018-2019[3] - The labor force participation rate is at 62.4%, at the 38th percentile since 2018, indicating weaker labor supply compared to pre-pandemic levels[3] - The ratio of job vacancies to unemployment (V/U) is currently at 1.0, at the 6th percentile since 2018, reflecting a significant cooling in labor market supply-demand relationships[3] Inventory and Investment - The U.S. is currently in a weak inventory replenishment cycle, with inventory year-on-year growth turning positive in 2024 but at a weak pace[5] - Leading indicators suggest that non-residential investment may continue to decline in the next six months, as manufacturing PMI and new orders are both weak[6] - The probability of large-scale inventory replenishment by businesses in the U.S. is low, as indicated by three leading indicators: manufacturing PMI, OECD leading indicators, and the self-inventory to customer inventory ratio[8] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending capacity is weakening, with disposable income growth slowing to 4.2% in Q1 2025, below the 5.2% average from 2018-2019[10] - The wealth effect has diminished significantly, with excess wealth dropping from $14.9 trillion in Q4 2024 to $11.1 trillion in Q1 2025, a decline of 26%[10] - Despite reduced spending capacity, the risk of consumer liquidity issues is low due to healthy household balance sheets and low interest payment pressures[11] Financial Conditions - Financial conditions are currently in a loose state, as indicated by the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index and the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)[12] - Recent fluctuations in financial conditions were influenced by tariff policies, but conditions have returned to a more accommodative stance since early May 2025[12]

Core Viewpoint - Cathie Wood, founder of Ark Invest, predicts that the U.S. economy will face deflationary pressures [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to experience deflation, which could impact consumer spending and investment [1] - Wood emphasizes that technological advancements and productivity improvements are key factors contributing to this deflationary trend [1] Group 2: Investment Implications - The anticipated deflation may lead to a shift in investment strategies, favoring growth-oriented sectors that can thrive in a low-inflation environment [1] - Ark Invest is likely to focus on sectors such as technology and innovation, which are expected to benefit from the deflationary pressures [1]

Group 1 - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, indicated that the impact of government spending and monetary policy supporting the U.S. economy during the pandemic has faded, making the U.S. more susceptible to economic downturns in the coming months [1] - Dimon expressed skepticism about survey data showing consumer and business confidence, stating that "real data may soon deteriorate" and that the outlook for a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy may appear weaker in the future [1] - Recent economic data showed a slowdown in job growth and inflation in May, with Dimon predicting a slight decline in employment and a small increase in inflation [1] Group 2 - Other bank executives echoed Dimon's cautious outlook, with Wells Fargo's CFO Mike Santomassimo predicting that consumer loan growth will level off or potentially decline by the end of the year [2] - Citigroup's banking head Vis Raghavan mentioned that the bank is preparing to set aside more reserves for potential loan losses due to a possible decline in consumer financial health [2] - The World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospects report downgraded growth expectations for 70% of the global economy, including the U.S. and Europe, from pre-Trump levels [2]

可以预见的是，大量驱逐非法移民也正冲击美国经济。 美国一场针对非法移民的"搜捕战"，正不断发酵、升级成激烈的街头对峙。 据新华社报道，当地时间8日中午，在洛杉矶市中心联邦执法机构门前的抗议者与部署在该地的国民警 卫队人员发生冲突。国民警卫队人员发射催泪弹和橡皮子弹试图驱散抗议人群，但抗议者越来越多，从 最初数十人增加到1000人以上。 这是一场关于移民问题的三方博弈。据新华社报道，大量加利福尼亚州（以下简称"加州"）民众不满联 邦政府抓捕非法移民，在街头抗议。美国总统特朗普公开称，洛杉矶"被非法移民和犯罪分子侵占"，将 采取一切必要行动"解放"洛杉矶。20余名民主党州长联合发表声明称，特朗普向洛杉矶派遣州国民警卫 队是"令人担忧的权力滥用"，"既无效又危险"。 收紧移民签证、驱逐非法移民，一直是特朗普政府的核心政策议程。然而在美国，合法和非法移民为全 美贡献了近五分之一的劳动力，每年拉动实际GDP增长约0.1个百分点（美国国会预算办公室，即CBO 测算），大肆驱逐移民或将付出惨重的经济代价。 美国经济第一大州成风暴中心 "洛杉矶之乱"的直接导火索，在于美国联邦执法机构在南加州展开严打搜捕非法移民的行动。据央视 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" indicates a slight decline in U.S. economic activity, which raises concerns about the overall economic outlook [1][3] - Businesses are hesitant to invest or expand due to unpredictable policy changes, while consumers face rising prices and stagnant wages, leading to more cautious spending habits [3][4] - The financial markets reacted to the news with volatility, as investors speculated on the potential for reduced corporate profitability and the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][5] Group 2 - The report highlights the interconnectedness of the global economy, suggesting that developments in the U.S. economy could have broader implications for financial markets and consumer behavior worldwide [4][5] - The discussions among investors reflect a mix of strategies, with some considering whether to buy into the stock market or exchange currencies based on the evolving economic landscape [4]

北京时间周五晚8:30，美国劳工统计局将发布备受关注的5月非农就业报告。随着企业和消费者为应对 更高关税和经济不确定性做准备，5月就业增长显著放缓几乎已成定局，目前的核心问题在于"放缓幅度 有多大"。 小幅偏离近期趋势可能不会引发担忧，但超出这一范围的数据或将引发市场对劳动力市场及整体经济的 新一轮担忧，甚至可能促使美联储采取快于预期的利率行动。 市场聚焦非农"降温幅度" 经济学家预计，5月非农就业报告将显示，上月新增就业仅13万人，低于4月的17.7万人及年初至今14.4 万的月均水平。这一数据虽有所下滑但并非崩盘，市场将聚焦于放缓程度。与此同时，失业率预计维持 在4.2%不变，平均时薪月率预计为0.3%，高于4月份0.2%。 华尔街观点分歧显著：高盛预计非农就业增长将低于预期，为11万人；美国银行则预测数据接近15万 人；而摩根大通的预估为12.5万人，与市场预期一致。 高盛股票衍生品和资金流动专家卡伦•摩根（Cullen Morgan）写道，该行原本预计5月份非农就业人数将 增加12.5万人；然而，由于ADP数据低于预期，该行将预期下调了1.5万。虽然从历史上看，ADP数据的 水平和出乎意料通常对非农就 ...

纳斯达克CEO：美国经济的基本面持续展现出韧性。 ...