美国关税政策如儿戏，美国经济蒙上阴影，黄金能否再破位？点击观看金十研究员文成直播分析 相关链接 ...

民调显示特朗普对美国经济处理方式的支持率降至36% 智通财经4月30日电，路透社/益普索民调显示，美国总统特朗普的总体支持率稳定在42%，特朗普对美 国经济处理方式的支持率降至36%（反对率升至56%），对移民政策的支持率保持不变，为45%（反对 率升至48%）。 ...

美国有线电视新闻网民调机构进行的一项最新民调显示，59%的民众认为美国总统特朗普的政策恶化了 美国经济状况，这一比例较3月份的51%有所上升。调查还发现，美国人对本国经济状况普遍不满，对 白宫新贸易政策缺乏热情。60%的民众称特朗普政策提高了所在社区生活成本，仅12%的民众认为其政 策有助于降低物价。此外，仅有34%的美国人对经济持乐观态度，29%的人感到悲观，37%的人表示担 忧。(央视新闻) ...

金十数据4月28日讯，Reichmuth & Co的Christof Reichmuth在报告中表示，美元和美债比美国经济或美 国股市更令人担忧。美元和美债的表现"直接取决于政治决策"。俄罗斯在十年前就放弃了美元，欧洲国 家现在也在质疑其美元储备的安全性。但他同时表示，尽管美国股市当前估值过高缺乏吸引力，但美国 仍拥有优质企业，尤其体现在科技和能源领域。 分析师：美元和美债比美国经济和股市更令人担忧 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the industry, indicating that the expected investment returns will be in line with market benchmarks within the next 6-12 months [27]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has decided to pause interest rate cuts for the second consecutive meeting, adjusting inflation forecasts upward while lowering economic growth predictions, which aligns with market expectations [3][5]. - The Fed's Chairman Powell indicated that inflation caused by tariffs is considered temporary, which has significantly eased market concerns, leading to a rise in U.S. stock markets and a decline in bond yields [3][5][11]. - The report anticipates 2-3 potential interest rate cuts within the year, driven by economic pressures and the expected implementation of tax cuts later in the year [3][24]. Summary by Sections FOMC Meeting Insights - The FOMC meeting on March 20 resulted in the decision to maintain the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5%, with the next meeting scheduled for May 7 [2]. - The Fed's statement showed minor changes, reflecting increased uncertainty in the economic outlook and a slower pace of balance sheet reduction [7]. Economic and Inflation Forecasts - The Fed has raised its inflation forecasts while lowering GDP growth expectations for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with GDP growth rates adjusted down by 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.1 percentage points respectively [8][9]. - The median PCE inflation rate for 2025 is now projected at 2.7%, up from 2.5% in December [9]. Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, major U.S. stock indices saw gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.9%, the S&P 500 by 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite by 1.4% [4]. - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 4 basis points to 4.25%, while the 2-year yield decreased by 5 basis points to 3.99% [4]. Economic Health Assessment - Powell described the U.S. economy as "healthy," despite acknowledging an increased risk of recession, attributing recent economic data fluctuations to the initial turbulence of the Trump administration [11][21]. - The report highlights that the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary, with significant inflation pressures anticipated to manifest in the upcoming months [11][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% and indicates a slowdown in the balance sheet reduction process [7][10]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's March FOMC meeting decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged for the second consecutive time since the rate cut in September 2024, while also reducing the monthly limit for Treasury bond reductions from $25 billion to $5 billion starting in April 2025 [7][10]. - The Fed's economic outlook shows a weakening economy, with an upward revision of the unemployment rate to 4.4% for 2025, while inflation expectations have been adjusted upward to 2.7% for the same year [15][20]. - The dot plot indicates that nearly 80% of members expect at least a 25 basis point rate cut in 2025, with close to 60% anticipating a 50 basis point cut [13][15]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve will continue to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities, with the total assets decreasing from a peak of $8.96 trillion in March 2022 to $6.8 trillion as of March 12, 2025 [7][10]. - The Fed's statement removed the phrase "risk balance" and emphasized economic stability, noting that recent indicators show steady economic expansion [10][20]. Economic Projections - The Fed has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.7%, while maintaining long-term growth expectations at 1.8% [15][17]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.4% in 2025, with core inflation expectations adjusted to 2.8% for the same year [15][17]. Market Expectations - Market expectations indicate a high probability of a rate cut in June 2025, with a potential 50 basis point reduction anticipated [20][21]. - The Fed's Chairman Powell stated that there is no rush to cut rates, emphasizing the need for clearer market signals before making policy adjustments [18][20].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, indicates that there is no immediate need to lower interest rates despite uncertainties stemming from the Trump administration's trade policies. The current economic conditions remain stable, and the Fed will adopt a patient approach while awaiting clearer signals regarding the economic outlook [1][2]. Economic Conditions - Powell emphasizes that the U.S. economy is currently in good shape, with a balanced and robust job market. The Fed's focus is on distinguishing genuine signals from market noise amid economic changes [1][4]. - The February non-farm payroll report showed a job growth of 151,000, slightly below market expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, the highest since November of the previous year [3]. Trade Policy Impact - The uncertainty brought about by the Trump administration's trade policies is acknowledged as a significant factor affecting economic conditions. The Fed is assessing the impact of these trade policy changes, which have heightened economic uncertainty [1][4]. - Powell notes that the rise in tariffs is pushing up prices for certain goods, which could affect inflation expectations. However, long-term inflation expectations remain stable and aligned with the Fed's targets [5]. Inflation and Interest Rates - The Fed is closely monitoring consumer and business inflation expectations, as these can become self-fulfilling. If long-term inflation expectations rise, the Fed may reconsider its stance on interest rate cuts [5]. - Powell suggests that if the tariff impacts are deemed temporary, the Fed may choose to ignore them in its monetary policy decisions [5]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, U.S. stock indices initially dropped but later rebounded, with the Nasdaq rising over 0.9%. Treasury yields also experienced fluctuations, indicating market volatility in response to the Fed's communication [7].