Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices, including a drop of over 3% below $4000 and $3900, are driven by multiple factors, raising questions about the long-term investment logic of gold and how investors should position themselves [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Movements - Concerns over the U.S. dollar credit system have intensified, with the national debt exceeding $37 trillion, marking a historical peak in GDP ratio since World War II, and risks of government shutdown exacerbating market fears [3]. - Escalating trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, have heightened risk aversion, increasing gold's appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset [3]. - Central banks globally are returning to a loose monetary policy, with a 90% probability of further rate cuts anticipated by the market following the Federal Reserve's recent actions [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The gold market may have entered a high-level consolidation phase, with short-term sentiment indicators suggesting overheating, which could lead to increased volatility [5]. - Some short-term factors that supported previous price increases are reversing, such as easing U.S.-China tensions and stabilizing European political conditions, which may lead to significant price fluctuations in the future [7]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook and Institutional Predictions - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term logic for gold as a reserve asset remains intact, with 95% of surveyed central banks planning to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months [7]. - Global gold ETFs saw a net inflow of 145.6 tons in September 2025, bringing total holdings to 3837.7 tons, indicating strong ongoing demand [7]. - Historical comparisons show that gold has experienced significant long-term price increases, suggesting potential for further appreciation in the current cycle [7]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on strategic allocation rather than short-term speculation, with a recommendation to allocate approximately 15% of their portfolio to gold as a hedge against currency credit risks and geopolitical uncertainties [11]. - Gold-related funds are suggested as a preferred investment vehicle due to their liquidity and lower entry barriers, while physical gold and futures are recommended for more knowledgeable investors [11].

Core Viewpoint - The current market shows a decrease in risk aversion, leading to a decline in precious metals prices, with gold dropping below $4000 per ounce and silver falling over 4% [1]. Group 1 - As of October 27, spot gold prices fell to a low of $3987 per ounce, marking a daily decline of 2.8% [1]. - Spot silver prices reported at $46.5 per ounce, reflecting a drop of over 4% [1]. - Market participants indicate that the expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have been gradually priced in, contributing to increased volatility in precious metals [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold market is affected by multiple factors. The decline in risk - aversion sentiment and the expectation of improved Sino - US trade relations put pressure on gold prices, while the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation provides support. The uneven global economic recovery and the uncertainty of major central banks' monetary policies are the core factors causing gold market fluctuations [3]. - For copper, last week, macro - level positive expectations prevailed, but the weak downstream demand in the industrial chain restricted the price breakthrough. This week, the market will be in a game between the Fed's interest - rate decision and the industry's acceptance of high copper prices, with potential increased volatility [16]. - Regarding aluminum, macro - policies are the core factors affecting the price of Shanghai aluminum. The favorable macro - environment and overseas supply disruptions have led to the rise of aluminum prices. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, while cast aluminum alloy has strong support [34]. - For zinc, the supply - demand situation has not changed significantly recently. The price difference between domestic and overseas markets has widened. The domestic market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and low inventory provides support for prices [57]. - In the nickel industry, the new regulations for Indonesia's nickel ore quota application in 2026 are stricter. The new energy sector is in the peak season, while nickel - iron prices lack upward momentum. Stainless steel may fluctuate widely [72]. - For tin, the supply is weaker than the demand. Short - term supply - side disturbances are difficult to resolve, and Shanghai tin is expected to remain strong [89]. - For lithium carbonate, considering both supply and demand factors, it may show a short - term oscillatory and strengthening trend [103]. - In the silicon industry chain, industrial silicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The polysilicon industry chain has weak fundamentals, and the polysilicon futures have high volatility [115]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: The decline in risk - aversion sentiment and the expectation of improved Sino - US trade relations put pressure on gold prices, while the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation provides support. The uneven global economic recovery and the uncertainty of major central banks' monetary policies are the core factors causing gold market fluctuations [3]. Copper - **Price Fluctuation and Market Situation**: Last week, macro - level positive expectations prevailed, but the weak downstream demand in the industrial chain restricted the price breakthrough. This week, the market will be in a game between the Fed's interest - rate decision and the industry's acceptance of high copper prices, with potential increased volatility [16]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai copper futures (main contract, continuous one, continuous three) and London copper 3M are provided, along with their daily changes and percentage changes. Spot copper prices from different sources also show daily and percentage changes [17][20]. Aluminum - **Price Influencing Factors**: Macro - policies are the core factors affecting the price of Shanghai aluminum. The favorable macro - environment and overseas supply disruptions have led to the rise of aluminum prices. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, while cast aluminum alloy has strong support [34]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai aluminum, London aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures, as well as their daily changes and percentage changes, are presented. Spot aluminum prices from different regions and related basis data are also provided [35][45]. Zinc - **Supply - Demand and Price Situation**: The supply - demand situation has not changed significantly recently. The price difference between domestic and overseas markets has widened. The domestic market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and low inventory provides support for prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the opening of the export window and the possibility of macro - level upward drivers [57]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai zinc and London zinc futures, along with their daily changes and percentage changes, are given. Spot zinc prices and related premium data are also provided [58][65]. Nickel - **Industry Situation**: The new regulations for Indonesia's nickel ore quota application in 2026 are stricter. The new energy sector is in the peak season, while nickel - iron prices lack upward momentum. Stainless steel may fluctuate widely. Macro - level factors such as Sino - US tariffs and interest - rate cut expectations also have an impact [72]. - **Futures and Related Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai nickel and London nickel 3M futures, along with their changes, are provided. Data on trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts are also included [73]. Tin - **Supply - Demand and Price Outlook**: The supply is weaker than the demand. Short - term supply - side disturbances are difficult to resolve, and Shanghai tin is expected to remain strong, with a predicted support level around 276,000 yuan [89]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai tin and London tin 3M futures, along with their daily changes and percentage changes, are presented. Spot tin prices and related data are also provided [89][92]. Lithium Carbonate - **Supply - Demand and Price Trend**: Considering both supply and demand factors, it may show a short - term oscillatory and strengthening trend. The supply may increase with the release of lithium ore production capacity, while the demand from downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to grow [103]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts, along with their daily and weekly changes, are given. Spot lithium prices from different sources and related price differences are also provided [104][108]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Supply - Demand and Market Situation**: Industrial silicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The polysilicon industry chain has weak fundamentals, and the polysilicon futures have high volatility. Attention should be paid to industry policies [115]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices of industrial silicon futures contracts, along with their daily changes and percentage changes, are presented. Spot industrial silicon prices from different regions and related basis data are also provided [116].

降息充分定价，贵金属震荡属性增加 摘 要： 中美经贸再度开启谈判议程，避险情绪略有降低，黄金在避险 情绪减弱的推动下，略有下行，目前为止震荡特征明显。目前美国 政府依然处于停摆过程中，关于美国经济的数据无法进一步获得， 但是从美联储官员的表述来看，市场基本对 10 月份继续降息已经 有所定价，后续市场更多关注的是地缘避险因素，及美国政府的内 部分歧和博弈情况。 美东时间 10 月 1 日 0 时，美国联邦政府因资金用尽，时隔近 七年再度"停摆"。数十万联邦雇员将被迫无薪休假，部分公共服 务或暂停、延迟，经济数据发布将受到一定影响。美国 9 月 CPI 同 比上涨 3%，创今年 1 月以来最高，但低于市场预期的 3.1%，核心 CPI 环比放缓至 0.2%，也低于市场预期。9 月服务业通胀放缓至 2021 年 11 月以来的最弱水平。数据公布后，市场已经完全消化美联储 年内剩余时间两次降息 25 个基点的预期。国家主席习近平将于 10 月 30 日至 11 月 1 日赴韩国庆州出席亚太经合组织第三十二次领导 人非正式会议并对韩国进行国事访问。就 APEC 会议期间中美元首 是否举行会晤相关问题，外交部发言人郭嘉 ...

来源：曲合期货 欧洲信用评级机构范围评级公司日前发布报告，将美国主权信用评级从"AA"下调至"AA-"。 期货公司观点 广发期货： 美国经济运行和就业市场受到政府"关门"的冲击衰退风险有所增加，美联储政策降息路径"预期强化-独 立性受挫"的双重特征或强化从而打压美元指数。目前伴随美国政府关门和欧洲日本等发达国家的财政 货币政策动荡影响持续发酵，投资者新的资产定价体系将重塑利好金融属性强的商品货币，使贵金属有 望重现类似 1970 年代的牛市行情，价格易涨难跌，但短期特朗普内外政策不确定性和中美摩擦进程将 影响行情上涨节奏，在 10 月底韩国的 APEC 会议前市场波动将较反复。操作上单边在910 元上方可择 机轻仓买入并做好止盈止损。 报告预计，若缺乏实质性改革，美国政府债务占国内生产总值（GDP）比例到2030年将升至140%，远 高于大多数主权国家。 常规逻辑来看，信用评级被下调会引发避险情绪，对黄金是利好。 日内收盘不，沪金下跌1.24%，报收934.14元/克。 该机构表示，美国公共财政持续恶化主要表现在财政赤字持续高企、利息支出不断上升以及预算灵活性 受限。这些因素共同推动政府债务水平持续攀升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant drop in gold prices is attributed to a rapid shift in market sentiment, influenced by geopolitical developments and U.S. economic signals, leading to a reassessment of gold's role as a safe-haven asset [1][5][11]. Short-term Fluctuations - The recent decline in gold prices is linked to a decrease in risk aversion among investors, driven by news of potential ceasefires in Ukraine and trade discussions in the U.S. [5][7]. - As a result, funds have shifted from gold to equities and commodities, reflecting a broader market optimism [5][7]. Mid-term Trends - U.S. interest rates play a crucial role in determining gold's attractiveness as an investment. When real interest rates are positive, gold becomes less appealing compared to interest-bearing assets [9][11]. - Current U.S. inflation is around 3%, with real interest rates approximately 4%, suggesting a challenging environment for gold unless interest rates are lowered [9][11]. Long-term Logic - The credibility of the U.S. dollar is fundamental to gold's long-term value. As concerns grow over U.S. debt and the weaponization of the dollar, many countries are diversifying their reserves into gold [11][13]. - Central banks have shown a consistent demand for gold, with net purchases exceeding 1,000 tons for two consecutive years, indicating a shift towards gold as a reliable asset [11][13]. Conclusion - The dynamics of gold prices are influenced by short-term geopolitical events, mid-term monetary policy, and long-term perceptions of the U.S. dollar's reliability. Investors should consider these factors before making decisions regarding gold investments [13].

Core Viewpoint - Economic uncertainty has heightened risk aversion, leading to a rebound in gold prices after hitting a low, with COMEX gold futures trading around $4092 per ounce [1] Market Performance - As of 14:23, the China Gold ETF (518850) decreased by 0.37%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) increased by 1.89%, and the Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650) rose by 2.58% [1] Economic Context - The U.S. White House has warned that due to the ongoing government shutdown, it may not release the inflation data for October, marking the first time in history this data will not be published [1] - In the absence of this data, the interaction between Federal Reserve policy expectations and market sentiment will be the primary driver of gold price fluctuations [1] Investment Insights - According to Guangfa Fund Advisory, the recent pullback in gold prices is mainly due to easing concerns over geopolitical conflicts and some profit-taking by investors [1] - Despite the high volatility expected in the medium to long term, gold still holds certain asset allocation value [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Fundamentally, precious metals retreated from highs last week and showed a volatile upward trend. The easing of Sino-US trade relations reduced risk aversion, but geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict still drove the safe-haven demand for precious metals. The suspension of CFTC data and possible speculative long positions led to a significant correction in precious metals. With the decline of COMEX silver inventory, the squeeze in the London silver market gradually eased. In the short term, precious metals face correction pressure and will remain volatile and strong [3]. - In terms of capital, last week, COMEX gold and silver inventories continued to decline, and the tightness of London silver inventory gradually eased. The inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs increased. Overall, ETF funds continued to flow into the precious metals sector last week [3]. - In terms of strategy, in the short term, pay attention to Sino-US economic and trade consultations and the negotiations at the APEC summit at the end of the month. The market has basically digested the expectation of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Fed in October. In the long term, the US government shutdown continues, and the US national debt has exceeded $38 trillion, increasing the fiscal burden. Against the backdrop of de-dollarization and global political turmoil, central banks continue to buy gold, and precious metals still have allocation value. The prices of Shanghai gold and silver are expected to rise in the long term, fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and it is recommended to buy in batches on dips and hold long positions in the medium term [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: Gold and silver prices in both the spot and futures markets declined last week. For example, the spot price of gold in the London market dropped by 0.95%, and the COMEX silver futures price fell by 0.49%. COMEX gold and silver inventories also decreased, while total positions and speculative net long positions increased [5]. - **Gold-Silver Ratio**: The domestic gold-silver ratio rebounded last week. Due to the smaller market size, weaker liquidity, and lack of central bank buying support in the silver market, its decline was greater than that of gold, driving up the gold-silver ratio [7]. - **Price Spread between Domestic and Overseas Markets**: The price spreads of gold and silver between domestic and overseas markets decreased compared with last week. The decline in domestic precious metal prices was more significant. The improvement in Sino-US trade relations and the positive outlook of the 15th Five-Year Plan reduced the safe-haven demand for precious metals [12]. 2. Macroeconomic Factors - **US Dollar Index**: The US dollar index strengthened slightly last week, suppressing precious metals. The easing of Sino-US trade relations and the possible implementation of loose fiscal and monetary policies in Japan boosted the US dollar [13]. - **US Treasury Real Yield**: The real yields of 5-year and 10-year US Treasuries declined last week. The high debt scale and the government shutdown increased market concerns about the US fiscal sustainability, driving investors to buy US Treasuries and pushing down real yields [16]. - **US Key Economic Data**: - **CPI**: In September, the US CPI and core CPI increased year-on-year, slightly lower than expected. The inflation pressure of core commodities and services eased, and it is expected to open up space for the Fed to cut interest rates in October [20]. - **PPI**: In August, the US PPI was lower than expected year-on-year and turned negative month-on-month for the first time in four months, indicating a relief of inflation pressure at the production end [21]. - **Core PCE**: In August, the US core PCE and PCE increased year-on-year and month-on-month, in line with market expectations. Due to the slowdown in core inflation and employment risks, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October [27]. - **PMI**: In September, the US ISM manufacturing and service PMI were lower than expected, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing and service industries [30]. - **Retail Sales**: In August, the US retail sales increased month-on-month, higher than expected, mainly driven by online sales, clothing, and sports goods [30]. - **Employment Data**: In September, the US ADP employment decreased significantly, and the August non-farm payrolls were far lower than expected, with the unemployment rate rising to a four-year high. The government shutdown affected the release of employment data, increasing uncertainty [33]. - **US Government Shutdown**: The US government shutdown is likely to continue until November, becoming the second-longest in history. It has a negative impact on the economy and society, increasing the fiscal burden and employment pressure. However, the easing of Sino-US trade relations and the geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict have different effects on precious metals [35][36]. 3. Position Analysis - **Hedge Fund Positions**: As of September 23, 2025, CMX gold and silver speculative net long positions increased compared with the previous month, indicating that hedge funds increased their holdings of gold and silver [39]. - **ETF Positions**: As of October 23, 2025, the holdings of SPDR gold ETF and SLV silver ETF increased compared with last week. Overall, the inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs increased significantly last week and then declined, remaining at a high level [40]. 4. Other Factors - **Gold and Silver Inventories**: As of October 24, 2025, COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased compared with last week. The return of silver inventory from New York to London eased the squeeze in the London silver market [45]. - **Gold and Silver Demand**: In October 2025, the global gold reserve decreased slightly, while China's gold reserve increased. In the second quarter of 2025, the global gold demand increased year-on-year, mainly driven by ETF investment. The global silver market is expected to be in short supply in 2025, with strong industrial demand, especially in the photovoltaic industry [49]. - **Key Events This Week**: This week, focus on the Fed's October interest rate meeting, with a 96.7% probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, and the APEC summit, where the meeting between Chinese and US leaders may affect Sino-US trade negotiations [52].

Core Insights - The surge in gold prices in 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 66%, has led to a significant influx of retail investors, causing the UK Royal Mint's website to crash due to overwhelming traffic [1][3] - The demand for gold has been characterized by irrational behavior, with retail and institutional investors driving the buy-sell ratio to 10:1, far exceeding the normal 3:1 ratio [3][10] - Central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China, have been strategically increasing their gold reserves, contributing to market stability [4] Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's dovish signals and expectations of interest rate cuts have lowered the holding costs of gold, further driving investment towards it as a safe haven [6][8] - The recent geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties have reinforced gold's appeal, although the price surge is also attributed to a self-reinforcing cycle of buying behavior [8][10] - The rapid price increase has led to a technical correction, with profit-taking observed as gold approached its peak, indicating a potential for volatility in the market [8][12] Investor Behavior - The current gold market frenzy reflects a collective anxiety in response to global economic uncertainties, with both central banks and retail investors seeking a "safe anchor" [10][12] - The phenomenon of retail investors overwhelming the Royal Mint's website highlights the risks of herd behavior in investment decisions, particularly in the context of information asymmetry [10][12] - The volatility in gold prices serves as a reminder that supply and demand fundamentally dictate market behavior, and that rational assessment of risk is crucial for investors [12]

避险情绪回落 贵金属开启回调 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询资格证号：Z0021675 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 | | | 第三章 贵金属基本面数据追踪 13 文 字 色 基 础 色 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 避险情绪回落 贵金属开启回调 ◼【综合分析】 风险事件：上周，近期集中爆发的多个市场风险事件发生了一些边际变化，令贵金属从高位回落。这些变化包括中美之间的贸易关系趋于缓和 ，特朗普称将和习主席见面、并在26年初访问中国；另外，俄乌冲突一度出现泽连斯基称乌克兰已准备好结束俄乌冲突。与特朗普举行会谈 期间，双方同意尝试以当前前线为基础进行谈判。由于领土问题一直是俄乌谈判间的核心矛盾之一，所以"尝试以当前前线为基础进行谈判" 意味着针对长达三年半的俄乌冲突问题乌克兰方面做出了一定妥协，因此在消息传出的当天晚上，贵金属出现了罕 ...