Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have experienced a significant decline, approaching a three-week low near $3300, influenced by a strong dollar and expectations of prolonged high interest rates from the Federal Reserve [3][4] - A "multiple top" formation has been identified in the gold price chart, indicating strong resistance above $3434, with a critical support level at $3300; a breach of this level could lead to further technical selling [3][4] - If the support at $3300 is lost, further declines towards $3200 may occur, while a rebound could face initial resistance at $3340 and stronger resistance at $3370 [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Data Impact - The upcoming FOMC meeting is crucial; if no dovish signals are released, gold may enter a new technical downtrend [5] - Investor sentiment remains cautious, focusing on the FOMC meeting and key U.S. economic data [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices are supported by strong summer demand and tight inventories, with potential for price increases if key resistance levels are broken [8] - Geopolitical factors, including U.S. pressure on Russia and upcoming trade policy changes, contribute to market uncertainty [7][10] - Technical indicators suggest that if WTI crude oil prices break above $68.30, they could reach $70, while a drop below $65.20 may lead to a sideways trading pattern [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - With recent progress in trade negotiations, the US dollar index has strengthened, leading to a continuous decline in gold prices. Amid the overall rise and fall of commodities, silver has also corrected. Before the new tariff deadline, there has been a peak in negotiations. After the US reached a trade agreement with Japan and a 15% tariff agreement with the EU (lower than previous expectations), risk aversion has cooled. Trump has been pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates, but the expectation of a July rate cut remains low, and the market is focusing on whether there will be a rate cut in September. The rebound of US CPI has further cooled the short - term rate cut expectation, and the market is watching this week's non - farm payrolls performance. Although US economic data shows that the impact of tariff policies is smaller than feared, the subsequent impact may gradually increase. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill continues to boost the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China has been continuously increasing its gold holdings. The long - term drivers for gold still provide support, but the high price makes upward movement hesitant. Overall, gold and silver are likely to continue to show a volatile performance [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 770.68 and 772.84 respectively, with price drops of - 4.10 and - 4.16, and declines of - 0.53% and - 0.54%. The current prices of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 9201.00 and 9218.00 respectively, with price drops of - 11.00 and - 16.00, and declines of - 0.12% and - 0.17%. [2] - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 209675 and 112653 respectively, and the trading volumes are 256019 and 31873 respectively. The positions of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 398421 and 210928 respectively, and the trading volumes are 1203307 and 160014 respectively. [2] - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 0.90 and - 1.26 respectively, and those of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are - 15.00 and - 32.00 respectively. [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D and London Gold were 771.58 and 764.91 respectively, with price drops of - 2.03 and - 3.94, and declines of - 0.26% and - 0.51%. The previous closing price of London Gold (in dollars per ounce) was 3314.18, with a price drop of - 22.04 and a decline of - 0.66%. The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 9186.00, with a price drop of - 186.00 and a decline of - 1.98%. The previous closing price of London Silver (in dollars per ounce) was 38.15, with a price increase of 0.02 and an increase of 0.04%. [2] - **Differences and Ratios**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2510 and沪银2512 - 沪银2510 are 2.16 and 17 respectively. The spot gold - to - silver ratio is 84.00. The ratios of Shanghai Gold to London Gold and Shanghai Silver to London Silver are 7.24 and 7.49 respectively. [2] Inventory - **Changes**: The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and COMEX gold remain unchanged at 30,258 kilograms and 38,034,038 respectively. The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver and COMEX silver have increased by 21,015.00 kilograms and 1375881 respectively. [2] Related Variables - **Index and Yield Changes**: The current values of the US dollar index, Standard & Poor's Index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate are 98.6694, 6389.77, 4.42, 69.6, and 7.1835 respectively, with increases of 1.02%, 0.02%, 0.45%, 0.01%, and 0.21% respectively compared to the previous values. [2] Derivatives - **Position Changes**: The positions of spdr gold ETF and SLV silver ETF have increased by 1.00 tons. The net positions of CFTC speculators in silver have increased by 481, while those in gold have decreased by 1451. [2] Market News - **Trade Negotiations**: On July 28 local time, the economic and trade teams of China and the US held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden, aiming to translate the important consensus of the two heads of state into specific policies and actions, implement the consensus of the Geneva economic and trade talks and the London framework, and promote the healthy development of China - US economic and trade relations. [3] - **Trump's Statements**: Trump may impose a unified tariff of 15% - 20% on imported goods from countries that have not negotiated separate trade agreements with the US. He is also disappointed with Putin and is shortening the 50 - day deadline for Russia and Ukraine to reach an agreement. If no agreement is reached, the US will implement "secondary sanctions". [3] - **US Treasury Borrowing**: The US Treasury has significantly raised its estimate of federal borrowing for this quarter to $1 trillion, mainly due to the impact of the debt ceiling. It now expects the net borrowing from July to September to be $1.01 trillion, up from the April forecast of $554 billion. [3] - **European Central Bank**: European Central Bank hawkish official Kazimir said that the ECB is not in a hurry to lower borrowing costs again. Unless there is a major unexpected economic turn, the reason for action in September is not sufficient. [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing adjustments in the futures market, particularly focusing on the significant declines in various commodity prices, including coking coal, glass, and soda ash, amidst a broader market downturn [1][2]. Group 1: Futures Market Adjustments - Multiple futures contracts, including coking coal, glass, and soda ash, experienced substantial declines, with coking coal dropping over 11% and glass over 8% during the night trading session [1][2]. - By the afternoon of July 28, major futures contracts for coking coal, glass, soda ash, industrial silicon, coke, and lithium carbonate all closed at their daily limit down [2]. Group 2: Spot Market Trends - The spot market is also reflecting a downturn, with prices for steel and coke showing signs of cooling. For instance, the price of Tangshan's ordinary square billet fell by 30 yuan/ton to 3090 yuan/ton, and the average price of 20mm rebar in 31 major cities decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 3421 yuan/ton [2]. - A coal and coke enterprise in Shanxi reported a cautious trading atmosphere in the spot market, with rising instances of auction price declines and increased failure rates [2]. Group 3: Coal Price Dynamics - Despite the rapid fluctuations in the futures market, the overall price increases in the spot market have lagged. National statistics indicate that coal prices rose in mid-July, with coking coal prices reaching 1150 yuan/ton, up 7.0% from the previous period [3]. - The supply-side changes are identified as the most critical variable affecting coal prices in the second half of the year, with expectations of more rational supply releases and reduced safety hazards in coal production [4]. Group 4: External Influences and Future Outlook - External factors, such as the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and uncertainties in U.S.-China trade negotiations, are expected to amplify market volatility, impacting the overall valuation of commodities [4]. - The industry outlook suggests that if supply pressures ease and demand improves, prices may stabilize and recover. However, persistent tight macroeconomic conditions and new supply-side disruptions could lead to continued downward price pressures [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced significant fluctuations last week, with key influencing factors being US-EU tariff negotiations, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and US economic data [1][3]. Market Overview - As of July 28, the silver price in Shanghai varied across different trading platforms, with prices ranging from 9142 to 9184 CNY per kilogram [1]. - The main silver futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 9212.00 CNY per kilogram, reflecting a decline of 1.71%, with a daily trading volume of 1,203,307 contracts [1]. Trading Data - On July 25, the silver futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange totaled 1,187,254 kilograms, a decrease of 1,467 kilograms from the previous trading day [2]. - On July 24, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange reported a silver futures trading volume of 56,012 contracts, down by 13,707 contracts from the previous day, with open interest decreasing by 301 contracts to 173,958 [2]. Analytical Insights - According to research from Shenwan Hongyuan Futures, negotiations are peaking ahead of new tariff deadlines, with potential preliminary agreements on a 15% tariff between the US and EU, leading to reduced risk aversion [3]. - Despite pressure from President Trump on the Federal Reserve for interest rate cuts, expectations for a July rate cut remain low, influenced by a rebound in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) [3]. - The overall economic data from the US indicates that the impact of tariff policies may be less severe than previously feared, although future effects could gradually increase [3]. - The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" plan is expected to further elevate US fiscal deficit expectations, while the People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold reserves, providing long-term support for gold prices despite high levels causing upward movement to be hesitant [3].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic precious metal futures market is experiencing a decline, while international precious metals are showing slight gains, indicating mixed market sentiment influenced by external economic factors [1][3]. Domestic Precious Metals Market - As of July 28, the main contract for Shanghai gold is priced at 773.64 CNY per gram, down 0.48%, and Shanghai silver is at 9186.00 CNY per kilogram, down 1.98% [1]. - The opening price for Shanghai gold was 772.82 CNY, with a high of 775.84 CNY and a low of 770.58 CNY [2]. - The market is showing a bearish trend, with the recent price movements reflecting a lack of strong upward momentum [5]. International Precious Metals Market - COMEX gold is priced at 3342.00 USD per ounce, up 0.10%, and COMEX silver at 38.40 USD per ounce, up 0.18% [1]. - The opening price for COMEX gold was 3321.10 USD, with a high of 3344.00 USD and a low of 3303.00 USD [2]. Market Influences - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is creating uncertainty, with traders speculating on potential rate cuts, which may be suppressing gold prices [3]. - Recent data from the CFTC shows a significant increase in gold and silver positions, indicating growing interest in these assets despite current price declines [3]. - The U.S. labor market remains strong, as evidenced by a decrease in unemployment claims, which may influence the Fed's decision on interest rates [4]. Technical Analysis - COMEX gold has seen a decline for three consecutive days, closing at 3338.5 USD per ounce, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [5]. - The market is characterized by a lack of consensus on key factors such as tariff policies and the potential for Fed rate cuts, leading to increased volatility [5]. - Silver is supported by the performance of gold and expectations of a return to a favorable gold-silver ratio, making it an attractive investment option [6].

周末随着特朗普宣布与欧盟达成15%关税协定，市场避险情绪进一步消退，截至到8月1日，除开跟我们中国的最终关税协定 之外，基本没有其他的不确定性了，随着避险情绪的消退，市场关注重心也是转移到了美联储后续的降息时间节点之上，上 周特朗普造访美联储也是对美联储变相的施压，但是能不能坚持以往的原则，就要看后续的落地情况了，黄金上周初冲高到 3438附近之后承压开始一路走回落，上周五最低回踩到了3324附近，一度再度跌破了趋势线的支撑，短期也是再度转弱运 行，上方关注3340/44一带顶底转换的压力位，下方关注3310/3306附近强支撑情况，短期强转弱后先看空头延续情况。 黄金高位回落看延续，油价反弹无延续继续空！ 7/28黄金原油参考思路 黄金早盘在3338/40区间直接空，防守3347，目标看3322/3310附近，回踩初见3308/10附近多，防守3302，目标看3330附近 原油反弹66.2附近空，防守67，看65/64一线 思路仅供参考，盈亏风险自担，投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 原油方面，随着美与欧盟达成关税协议之后市场看好后续经济状态良好以及带动的原油需求，一定程度上给原油有一定的支 撑，但是整体供应端的稳 ...

上周（7月21日至25日当周）国际金价高位回落，尤其是后半周，金价日线走出三连阴，当周累计下跌 13.67美元或0.41%，为连续第二周收跌。 分析来看，在美元走软和美债收益率下行的带动下，金价一度涨至五周新高，但随着贸易谈判进展的消 息传出，市场风险偏好情绪回升，打击了黄金的避险需求，上周后三个交易日金价累计下跌超100美 元。 上周四（7月24日），美国总统特朗普造访美联储总部，其间他当着媒体镜头，拿出一份列有建筑成本 的文件，质问身边的美联储主席鲍威尔建筑翻修成本怎么又高了。特朗普在美联储逗留期间，还再次敦 促鲍威尔降息。 另据媒体报道，资产管理公司Azoria Capital已对鲍威尔及部分联邦公开市场委员会成员提起诉讼，指控 其闭门会议程序违反《阳光政府法案》。这一指控为本已复杂的美联储局势再添变数。 贸易局势方面，美国总统特朗普23日在公开讲话中表示，将在15%至50%的税率范围内对美国贸易伙伴 征收所谓"对等关税"，针对某一国的具体税率将取决于美方如何评估与该国的关系。媒体分析认为，这 表明随着谈判期限迫近，特朗普政府倾向于采取分层策略，以推动更多国家尽快与美方签订协议。从美 国近期与日本达成的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility this week, with a rebound from 3247 to 3438 followed by a decline, primarily driven by changes in economic indicators and geopolitical tensions [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Movements - The initial rebound in gold prices was supported by a decline in the US dollar and a drop in 10-year Treasury yields, which reduced the cost for non-dollar investors to purchase gold [3]. - Increased risk aversion due to approaching tariff negotiation deadlines and ongoing geopolitical conflicts led to a surge in safe-haven investments in gold [4]. - Market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September enhanced gold's attractiveness, contributing to the price rebound [5]. Group 2: Key Reasons for the Subsequent Decline - A correction in the market's overly optimistic expectations for rate cuts occurred after strong economic data, including the PMI and CPI, indicated economic resilience, reducing gold's appeal [6]. - The announcement of a trade agreement between the US and Japan alleviated trade tension concerns, prompting a withdrawal of safe-haven investments from gold [8]. - A strong performance in the stock market, particularly the Nasdaq reaching new highs, shifted investor focus from safe-haven assets to riskier investments, further pressuring gold prices [8]. Group 3: Future Market Focus Points - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on July 29-30 will be crucial; a hawkish signal could lead to a drop in gold prices to around 3300, while a hint at a September rate cut might trigger a technical rebound [9]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the situation in Ukraine and trade dynamics between the US and Europe, will influence gold's safe-haven premium [10]. - The continuity of strong US economic data, including non-farm payrolls and PCE price index, will shape expectations for sustained high interest rates, impacting gold's market dynamics [11]. Group 4: Trading Strategy for Next Week - The market is currently in a triangular range, with a potential rebound expected if prices remain above the 3300 support level; the 20-day moving average at 3260 serves as a critical defense point [12]. - A trading strategy suggests buying in the 3310-3312 range with a stop-loss at 3300, targeting 3322-3324, while considering short positions in the 3351-3353 range with a stop-loss at 3363, targeting 3339-3341 [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices, reaching over $3,400 per ounce, has ignited the domestic gold market, leading to significant price increases in retail gold products [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent spike in gold prices is attributed to various factors, including stalled US-EU tariff negotiations, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and declining US Treasury yields, which have heightened risk aversion among investors [5]. - The demand for gold is increasing, particularly in high-tech industries such as AI chips, while supply remains constrained due to slow mining progress [5]. - The gold market is experiencing a significant divide, with recovery agents struggling to liquidate gold, while downstream retailers are hesitant to stock up due to fears of losses [6]. Group 2: Investment Insights - Successful gold investment requires substantial capital and precise market timing, as demonstrated by investors who have profited significantly from strategic buying and selling [3]. - Ordinary investors may find the "golden era" of gold investment elusive, as evidenced by minimal profits from small-scale investments [5]. - The volatility of gold prices poses risks, with a notable drop of $160 in just half a month, highlighting the market's unpredictable nature [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Risks - Investors should maintain a rational approach, allocating only 5% to 10% of their assets to gold as a hedge against risk [8]. - Practical investment strategies include adhering to specific buying and selling disciplines, such as entering the market during geopolitical crises or when prices exceed certain moving averages [8]. - The gold recovery market is fraught with risks, including potential fraud and significant hidden costs associated with storage and resale [8].

黄金盛宴下的冰与火之歌：产业链在高压下挣扎求生 在金价如火箭般蹿升的背景下，一幅冰与火交织的复杂画卷正在贵金属产业链上徐徐展开。国际金价气势如虹，一举冲破3400美元/盎司，刷新了五周来的 最高纪录，国内金饰市场也随之沸腾，各大品牌金店的首饰价格普遍突破1000元/克大关，单日涨幅高达7-10元/克。 就在这黄金盛世之中，市场的脉搏却并非全然跳动着兴奋的节拍。上海黄金交易所的风险提示公告在交易大厅闪烁，提醒着每个逐金者：盛宴背后，暗流从 未停息。 国际黄金市场的风云突变，为这场"淘金热"埋下了伏笔。7月22日，COMEX期货黄金价格单日暴涨1.55%，国内金价也同步上扬，上海黄金交易所报价直逼 781.50元/克。周大福、周生生等金饰品牌迅速做出反应，单日涨价7-10元/克，足金首饰价格分别攀升至1015元/克和1021元/克。 避险情绪的升温，无疑是这轮金价上涨的重要推手。随着8月1日欧美关税谈判截止日的临近，叠加中东地区紧张局势的持续升级以及美债收益率的大幅回 落，大量资金涌入黄金市场，单日流入黄金ETF的资金就高达18.7吨。同时，美元指数跌至三个月低点，进一步凸显了黄金的投资吸引力。 面对如此迅猛的涨 ...