分析认为，在这一轮大跌后，比特币的上涨动能、市场叙事以及"避险资产"的标签几乎同时瓦解。 预测平台Polymarket上的合约显示，比特币年内有82%的概率会跌至6.5万美元下方。一些交易员甚至押注更糟糕的结果，比特 币跌破5.5万美元的概率已升至约60%。 这反映出在ETF资金流出以及宏观关联性失效加剧市场疑虑之际，交易员对比特币的悲观情绪。 Marex Solutions高级全球市场策略师Ilan Solot表示："这基本反映了当前市场的看空情绪，比特币近期未能发挥避险资产作用， 也是原因之一。 目前加密货币市场总市值约为2.5万亿美元，较去年10月时的逾4万亿美元大幅缩水。自那时以来，加密市场情绪一直低迷，跌 势又受到强制平仓放大的影响，导致比特币价格始终未能恢复。 2月5日，日内，比特币价格一度跌破7万美元关口，创特朗普就任美国总统以来新低。但预测市场数据显示，这种加密货币可 能还有更多下跌空间。 Bitstamp行情显示，比特币日内一度跌至69101美元/枚，为2024年11月7日以来的最低水平。自去年10月触及12.6万美元的历史 高点以来，比特币已累计下跌40%。 Pantera Capital ...

世界黄金协会指出，黄金ETF的持续增长反映了全球投资者对黄金资产的强烈需求，尤其是在市场不确 定性加剧的背景下，黄金作为避险资产的吸引力愈发突出。 这一系列数据进一步证明了黄金ETF市场的强劲增长势头，预计在2026年，黄金作为资产配置的重要组 成部分仍将继续吸引投资者关注。 根据世界黄金协会最新报告，2026年1月全球黄金交易所交易基金(ETF)吸引了创纪录的187亿美元资金 流入。各地区均表现强劲，尤其是亚洲和北美洲的资金流入表现突出，推动黄金ETF总资产管理规模达 到6690亿美元，创下历史新高。 1月的黄金市场表现亮眼，得益于黄金价格上涨14%。这股上涨势头使黄金ETF的持仓量激增，1月末的 持仓量达到了4145吨，创下历史新高。此外，交易量也大幅增加，1月份的平均日交易额高达6230亿美 元，成为有记录以来表现最强劲的一个月。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 10-year government bond yield has fallen below 1.81%, indicating a recovery in the bond market, while discussions about the "safe haven" attributes of Chinese government bonds are increasing amid global asset volatility [1][2][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Performance - As of February 5, the 10-year government bond yield decreased to 1.808%, down from nearly 1.9% a month ago, reflecting a decline of over 9 basis points [1][2]. - The 30-year government bond yield also showed a gradual decline, with the active bond "25超长特别国债06" yielding 2.239%, down 1.2 basis points [2][3]. - The bond market has experienced a recovery since January 7, with the 10-year bond yield dropping a cumulative 9.05 basis points and the 30-year bond yield down 9.6 basis points [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - On February 5, the central bank resumed 14-day reverse repos, injecting 300 billion yuan into the market, which positively impacted the bond market [3]. - The central bank's net injection for the day was 645 billion yuan, following the maturity of 354 billion yuan in reverse repos [3]. - The central bank's actions, including a significant increase in net bond purchases in January, have improved market sentiment and contributed to a downward shift in the yield curve [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Most institutions predict that the bond market will maintain a strong but volatile performance leading up to the Spring Festival, with increased information flow post-holiday [1][6]. - Analysts expect the 10-year government bond yield may further decline to around 1.75%, while the 30-year yield could stabilize around 2.15% [7]. - The bond market is anticipated to remain stable within the range of 1.8% to 1.9% for the 10-year yield in February, influenced by stable economic expectations and reduced volatility [7][8].

数据显示，2月5日上海黄金现货价格报价1107.79元/克，相较于期货主力价格（1105.76元/克）升水2.03 元/克。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 西部期货：资金强劲回流 金价确立震荡偏强格局 美国1月ISM服务业PMI指数小幅回落至53.8，但好于市场预期。商业活动回升支撑整体指数，但新订单 增长放缓，出口订单以2023年3月以来最快的速度萎缩。就业几乎没有扩张，价格指数创三个月高点。 伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐就伊朗在阿曼与美国会谈的官方立场作出澄清，称谈判将于2月6日上午10点左右 在阿曼首都马斯喀特举行。美国稍早前曾拒绝伊朗将原定会议地点由土耳其伊斯坦布尔改到阿曼的提 议。此次僵局引发了整个中东地区的担忧，担心特朗普会转而采取军事行动。该地区至少有九个国家通 过最高级别渠道联系白宫，强烈敦促美国不要取消会议。 【机构观点】 【黄金期货最新行情】 【基本面消息】 | 2月5日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 1105.76 | -1.35% | 631419 | 1725 ...

Core Insights - The World Gold Council's report indicates that global gold demand is projected to reach a record high of 5002 tons in 2025, with a total monetary value of $555 billion [1] China Market: Investment Demand Hits Record - In 2025, China's gold market shows a distinct pattern of "strong investment, moderate consumption," with total gold investment demand reaching 432 tons, a 28% increase from 2024, marking a historical high [2] - The demand for gold bars and coins surged particularly in Q4, with a year-on-year increase of 42% to 119 tons [2] - The Chinese gold ETF market experienced explosive growth, with total inflows reaching 110 billion RMB (approximately $15.5 billion) and holdings increasing to 248 tons, both figures hitting historical highs [2] - Conversely, gold jewelry demand fell to 360 tons, a 25% decrease year-on-year, with Q4 consumption dropping to 82 tons, the weakest performance since 2007 [2] - Despite the decline in volume, gold jewelry spending increased by 8% year-on-year to 281.4 billion RMB (approximately $39.4 billion) [2] - Analysts attribute the decline in jewelry demand to a 59% rise in gold prices, which weakened consumer purchasing power, alongside the implementation of a gold value-added tax reform [2] - The shift towards more cost-effective hard gold jewelry and the popularity of "old-for-new" exchange programs have helped alleviate market pressure [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, gold investment demand in China is expected to remain robust, supported by the Spring Festival and risk-averse demand [2] Global Market: Risk Aversion Dominates, Central Bank Gold Purchases Remain Active - Globally, the surge in gold investment demand is the primary driver behind the record total demand, with global gold investment demand rising to 2175 tons and global gold ETFs netting an increase of 801 tons [3] - Central bank gold purchases remained high, with official institutions adding 863 tons of gold, providing significant market support [3] - In the context of rising gold prices, global gold jewelry demand decreased by 18% to 1542 tons, while the monetary value of global jewelry consumption increased by 18% to $172 billion, highlighting the long-term appeal of gold jewelry to consumers [3] - On the supply side, global gold mine production increased to 3672 tons, with a slight rise in recycled gold supply, contributing to a record high in total global gold supply [3] Analyst Commentary - Louise Street, a senior market analyst at the World Gold Council, noted that 2025 witnessed a surge in global gold demand and a significant rise in gold prices, driven by ongoing economic and geopolitical risks [4] - The report emphasizes that gold investment demand became the focal point of the year, with investors actively seeking to allocate gold through various available channels, while other segments also supported global gold demand [4] - Despite a 67% year-on-year increase in dollar gold prices, jewelry demand only fell by 18%, indicating that consumers are still willing to purchase jewelry products in a high-price environment [4] - Central banks remain committed to increasing their gold reserves, and the strong demand momentum from 2025 is expected to continue into 2026 [4] - At the beginning of the year, gold prices surpassed $5000 per ounce for the first time, underscoring gold's role as a safe-haven asset during uncertain times [4]

黄金白银双双崩塌：市场为何大跳水？ 去年年底，黄金还创下了历史新高，大家都觉得金银能保值，避险情绪特别浓郁。可是到一月底，行情突然变了样。短短两天，黄金和白银的价格猛然下 跌，直接刷新了几十年来最大单日跌幅纪录。 有人说，是因为全球经济状况不佳；也有人认为，大国之间的博弈越发激烈，导致避险资产的泡沫堆积到了极限。不过仔细观察时间点，就发现怪事情正发 生在1月30号那天。 就在这天，特朗普一锤定音，提名沃什做下一届美联储主席。外界普遍觉得他偏向于降息和缩表，也就是说让流动性再次大量涌入市场，狠狠收割贵金属泡 沫里的"韭菜"。 尤其是那些在美国本土的华尔街机构，早就谋划好了，趁着亚洲和欧洲还在睡觉的时候，悄悄抛售黄金，发起了突袭。 此刻，大部分亚洲、欧洲的银行体系都还在休市，散户和中小机构根本没有时间做出反应。等到第二天一早醒来，黄金价格已经跌得一塌糊涂，很多散户那 些点点本金和利润也跟着归零了。 你得知道，这可是相当于美国GDP的一半摆布，突然就没了。背后操盘的人是谁？特朗普！他刚宣布要换美联储主席，金融圈一时间都炸了锅。 新提名的那位一直倡导降息、缩减资产负债表，一消息一出，华尔街立即响应，趁着亚洲客户休市的 ...

一、基本面： 4960.0附近尝试做多，止损4935.0，目标5025.0-5100.0附近。 白银（XAGUSD）： 恐慌情绪暂时消散，黄金多头卷土重来，迎来一场惊天动魄反弹，从4400.0美金一路大涨至5050.0美金新高位，短线下跌是 长期上涨趋势中修正，黄金基本面依然稳固。 金市场经历了剧烈的过山车行情，主要源于美联储主席人选的变动。特朗普总统提名（凯文·沃什）接替将于5月卸任的鲍威 尔，这一消息一度引发投资者对美联储政策的重新评估。Warsh以其鹰派背景闻名，这导致市场预期美联储可能在支持降息 的同时收紧资产负债表，进一步推高了芝商所对贵金属期货的保证金要求，直接施压金价回落。然而，周二的反弹显示出 投资者迅速调整了心态，低位买盘蜂拥而入。市场已从恐慌中恢复理性，黄金作为避险资产的吸引力再度凸显。值得一提 的是，美国政府部分停摆导致周五的1月就业报告延迟发布，这增加了经济数据的不确定性，进一步刺激了避险需求，推动 金价上行。 北约欧洲盟军最高司令部发言人马丁·奥唐奈宣布，正在制定一项"北约加强警戒活动"，以"进一步加强北约在北极和高北地 区的态势"。特朗普总统后来重申，美国"无论如何"都会"拥有"格 ...

Group 1 - The overall employment growth of 22,000 new jobs is primarily driven by the education and healthcare sectors, which added 74,000 jobs in January, while other industries are experiencing negative growth [1] - Key industries such as professional and business services saw a reduction of 57,000 jobs, and manufacturing lost 8,000 positions, indicating a synchronized contraction that could impact the dollar's long-term outlook [3] - Despite a decline in employment numbers, wage growth remains resilient at around 4.5% year-on-year, creating a dilemma for the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy [4] Group 2 - The employment slowdown is expected to weaken the dollar, leading to a potential increase in gold prices as a hedge against uncertainty [6] - ADP employment data is more suitable for adjusting short-term expectations rather than determining long-term reversals, emphasizing the need for caution in forex strategy formulation [7] - Understanding the interrelationship between assets is crucial for investors, as markets price in changes rather than outcomes, highlighting the importance of maintaining a logical perspective in trading [9]

今日周四(2月5日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于1079附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂1090.94元/克，跌 幅2.68%，最高触及1139.80元/克，最低下探1077.02元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看跌走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 尽管金价较历史高点仍低7%，但过去一年累计上涨71%。达利欧提醒，投资者常纠结"金价会涨还是 跌、该不该买"，但更应思考"应配置多少比例资产给黄金"。上周，受特朗普提名凯文·沃什为美联储主 席的消息冲击，投资者重新评估利率与美元预期，引发黄金等金属头寸快速平仓，导致金价暴跌。 过去一年黄金的吸引力，亦源于市场对债务高企不可持续、美元及法币走弱等经济风险的担忧。常警示 此类风险的达利欧表示，美国正站在"资本战争"边缘——地缘紧张使全球投资者对购买美债犹豫，当货 币被"武器化"(如贸易禁运、限制资本市场准入、以债务所有权为杠杆)时，黄金的避险价值凸显。"黄金 是多元化工具，危机时期表现尤为出色，"他说，"关键是构建充分多元化的投资组合。" 以倡导黄金投资闻名的达利欧，过去曾建议投资者将15%的资产配给黄金，以应对货币贬值风险。 【最新黄金期货行情解析 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices saw an intraday increase of 1.14%, reaching $5021.01 per ounce, but later fell below $4970 per ounce, showing a slight decline of 0.01% [1] - Silver prices dropped below $88 per ounce, with a decrease of 0.18% [1] - Bitcoin experienced a significant sell-off, dropping over 5% to $72646 per coin, while other cryptocurrencies like SOL and ETH also saw declines of over 7% and 5% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The recent decline in Bitcoin has raised questions about its status as "digital gold," as it failed to act as a safe haven during increased geopolitical uncertainty [4] - Notable investor Michael Burry warned that Bitcoin has revealed its speculative nature, lacking the hedging function that precious metals provide [4] - Galaxy Digital's CEO Michael Novogratz noted a shift in market sentiment, indicating that the previously strong belief in holding Bitcoin has diminished, leading to increased selling [4]