12月1日上午，白银期货主力合约开盘便跳空上涨超1.7%。 随后高开高走，日内一度涨超7%。截至 11:06，白银期货主力合约报13430元/千克，涨7.07%，已经连续5个交易日飘红，累计上涨幅度超13%。 上周五，纽交所COMEX白银期货创历史新高，今天继续创新高。 所谓金银比，就是黄金价格除以白银价格，由于黄金金融属性强而商品属性弱，白银兼具商品属性与金 融属性，因此金银比可以看作剔除了金融属性的、具备商品属性的指标。 由于PPI和CPI的共振回升预期，以及全球财政和货币配合的格局，招商期货看好明年周期尤其是有色和 化工的行情。 盘面上，工业金属方向领涨，白银有色（601212.SH）、闽发铝业（002578.SZ）等多只个股涨停。 从美联储降息趋势上看，长江期货认为，白银将震荡运行。此前美联储多位官员发表鸽派发言，市场预 期12月降息概率大幅升温，市场预期明年降息次数增加，贵金属价格反弹，白银表现强劲。美国经济数 据趋势性走弱，市场对美国财政情况和美联储独立性存在担忧，央行购金和去美元化并未改变。在降息 预期和避险需求的支撑下，白银现货延续短缺，预计白银价格仍将具有支撑。 从金银比上看，招商期货指出， ...

21世经济报道记者叶麦穗12月1日，亚洲早盘，避险情绪再度升温，现货黄金在4220关口上方震荡；现 货白银历史首次触及57美元/盎司，日内涨幅一度超过2.5%，今年以来涨幅已经达到98%，逼近100%； COMEX白银盘中突破58美元/盎司，日内涨1.47%。 上海期货交易所的白银主力合约价格涨至13520元/公斤，涨幅超过7%，月线上已经连续上涨8个月。 | (分鐘 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 學 年 參閱聯 設置 画线 | 九時 愛 区 加田馬 十一 州 | | 沪银主连 AGZL | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分时:此特 沪图 图 图图: 13081 品质: 13332 | | | 13332 | +789 | +629% | | | | 爱比 | -86.67% | | -13 | | | | 炭压 | 13337 | | | | | | 实図 | 13336 | | 55 | | | | 震三 | 133335 | | | | | | 澳二 | 13334 | | ે કે | | | 0.01% | 精神学 | 13 ...

所谓金银比，就是黄金价格除以白银价格，由于黄金金融属性强而商品属性弱，白银兼具商品属性与金 融属性，因此金银比可以看作剔除了金融属性的、具备商品属性的指标。 从美联储降息趋势上看，长江期货认为，白银将震荡运行。此前美联储多位官员发表鸽派发言，市场预 期12月降息概率大幅升温，市场预期明年降息次数增加，贵金属价格反弹，白银表现强劲。美国经济数 据趋势性走弱，市场对美国财政情况和美联储独立性存在担忧，央行购金和去美元化并未改变。在降息 预期和避险需求的支撑下，白银现货延续短缺，预计白银价格仍将具有支撑。 从金银比上看，招商期货指出，当下金银比为75。金银比的主要运行区间已经从1985-2015年的40到85 （中枢为62.5）整体上移到中枢85附近。其中2020年、2021年、2025年分别完成了三次对于金银比区间 （主要是黄金的"货币属性"和白银的"工业属性"）的试探，当前金银比或许还有收窄的空间，但已经需 要警惕风险了。 12月1日上午，白银期货主力合约开盘便跳空上涨超1.7%。 随后高开高走，日内一度涨超7%。截至 11:06，白银期货主力合约报13430元/千克，涨7.07%，已经连续5个交易日飘红，累计 ...

Core Insights - Silver prices have surged significantly in 2023, with London spot gold reaching a peak of $4,294 per ounce on October 20, marking a 62.3% increase since the beginning of the year, while spot silver hit $54 per ounce on October 17, reflecting an 86% increase [1] - The low inventory levels of silver in London have created conditions for a short squeeze, with silver ETFs showing a substantial increase in physical holdings, indicating a financialization of silver that reduces market liquidity [1] - Demand for silver in the photovoltaic sector is expected to reach approximately 195.7 million ounces by 2025, driven by global energy transition and installation expansion [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - The global silver supply is projected to be constrained, with primary silver production decreasing from 26,637 tons in 2024 to 23,681 tons by 2030, while total demand is expected to exceed supply, leading to a supply deficit [4] - Investment demand for physical silver peaked at approximately 338.3 million ounces in 2022 but is expected to decline below 200 million ounces in 2024, with signs of recovery in 2025 [3] - The financial attributes of silver are expected to be supported by a weaker dollar and liquidity easing, which may drive investment towards silver, potentially leading to a decline in the gold-silver ratio towards a range of 50-70 [3]

白银进入加速冲顶阶段 贵金属周报 2025/11/29 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 钟俊轩（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及行情展望 04 宏观经济数据 02 市场回顾 05 贵金属价差 03 利率与流动性 06 贵金属库存 01 周度评估及行情展望 周度总结 贵金属重点数据概览 | | | 单位 | 2025-11-28 | 2025-11-24 | 周度变化 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 近一年分位数 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | COMEX行情区间: | 2025-11-28 | 2025-11-20 | | | | | | | 收盘价（活跃合约） | 美元/盎司 | 4256 40 . | 4076 70 . | 上 涨 | 4 41% . | 6 45% . | 97 60% . | | | 成交量MA5 | 万手 | 21 05 . | 25 76 . | 下 跌 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices have surged to record highs, with COMEX silver reaching $57.245 per ounce and a maximum intraday increase of 6.79% [1] - The London spot silver also saw a significant rise, with an intraday increase of 5.74%, while domestic futures in China hit a peak of 13,239 yuan per kilogram, marking a 5.55% increase [1] - The driving force behind the rising silver prices is the increasing expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with an 85.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut [2] Group 2 - The World Silver Association forecasts that global silver mining supply will remain flat at 813 million ounces in 2025, while demand is expected to decline by 4% to 1.12 billion ounces [2] - Despite a slight increase in recycling, the supply deficit is projected to continue for the fifth consecutive year, estimated at 9.5 million ounces [2] - A resource company executive indicated that silver supply is expected to remain short in 2026, providing support for silver prices [2] Group 3 - Over the past decade, silver prices have increased by 301.8%, with the gold-silver ratio fluctuating between 63 and 122 [3] - Silver's dual nature as both a financial and industrial metal has led to its price volatility, with periods of correlation and divergence from gold prices [3][4] - The recent trends indicate a shift towards increased industrial demand for silver, particularly in sectors like photovoltaics, AI, and semiconductors, suggesting further potential for price increases [5]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged to historical highs, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, with silver outperforming gold this year [1][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - COMEX silver futures reached a peak of $57.245 per ounce, marking a new high since the contract's inception, with an intraday increase of 6.79% [1]. - London spot silver also saw a significant rise, with a 5.74% increase, breaking historical records [1]. - In the domestic market, the Shanghai silver futures contract hit a maximum of 13,239 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 5.55% increase and also reaching a historical high [1]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The surge in silver prices is attributed to an 85.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, as indicated by the CME Group's FedWatch tool [3]. - Federal Reserve Governor Waller reiterated support for the December rate cut, citing stable economic data since the last meeting [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The World Silver Association forecasts that global silver mining supply will remain flat at 813 million ounces in 2025, while recycling is expected to reach a 13-year high with only a 1% increase [4]. - Despite a projected decline in global silver demand to 1.12 billion ounces in 2025 (a 4% decrease), a supply deficit of 95 million ounces is anticipated for the fifth consecutive year [5][4]. - A resource company executive indicated that silver supply is expected to remain short in 2026, supporting price stability [5]. Group 4: Historical Context and Trends - Over the past decade, silver prices have increased by approximately 301.8%, with the gold-silver ratio fluctuating between 63 and 122 [7][10]. - Silver's dual nature as both an industrial and financial asset has led to varied price movements, with its industrial demand becoming a significant factor since 2022, particularly from the solar panel sector [9][11]. - The evolving dynamics of the gold-silver ratio illustrate silver's transition from a secondary role to a more independent market presence, with expectations for continued upward momentum in the context of global energy transitions [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged to historical highs, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, outperforming gold in recent performance [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - COMEX silver futures reached a peak of $57.245 per ounce, marking a new high since the contract's inception, with an intraday increase of 6.79% [1]. - London spot silver also saw significant gains, with a rise of 5.74%, while domestic futures in China hit 13,239 yuan per kilogram, up 5.55% [1]. - Over the past decade, silver prices have increased by over 300% [3]. Group 2: Market Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is now at 85.4%, as indicated by the CME's FedWatch tool [2]. - Federal Reserve Governor Waller reiterated support for the rate cut, citing stable economic indicators since the last meeting [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The World Silver Association forecasts that global silver mining supply will remain flat at 813 million ounces in 2025, with a projected demand drop to 1.12 billion ounces, a 4% decrease year-on-year [2]. - Despite a slight increase in recycling rates, the supply deficit is expected to persist for the fifth consecutive year, estimated at 9.5 million ounces [2]. - A resource company executive indicated that silver supply shortages are likely to continue into 2026, supporting price stability [2]. Group 4: Historical Context and Trends - Silver has historically followed gold's trends but has exhibited more volatility, with a 301.8% price increase over the last decade [3][5]. - The gold-silver ratio has fluctuated between 63 and 122, reflecting silver's evolving role from a secondary asset to a more independent investment [5][6]. - The demand for silver in industrial applications, particularly in solar panels, has become a significant factor, although growth may peak in 2024 [2][6].

Group 1 - Silver prices have surged, with COMEX silver reaching a record high of $57.245 per ounce, marking a maximum increase of 6.79% during trading [1] - The London spot silver also saw a significant rise, with a peak increase of 5.74%, while domestic futures in China hit a high of 13,239 yuan per kilogram, up 5.55% [1] - The driving force behind the rising silver prices is the increasing expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with an 85.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut [2] Group 2 - The global silver supply is expected to remain flat at 813 million ounces in 2025, with a slight increase in recycling but a projected 4% decline in demand to 1.12 billion ounces [3] - Despite the stable industrial demand for silver, a significant supply deficit is anticipated for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, estimated at 95 million ounces [4] - The solar energy sector has emerged as a major variable in silver demand, although it is expected to peak in 2024 and experience a marginal decline in 2025 [4] Group 3 - Over the past decade, silver prices have increased by approximately 301.8%, with the gold-silver ratio fluctuating between 63 and 122 [5] - Silver's dual attributes of being both a financial and industrial metal have led to its price volatility, with periods of correlation and divergence from gold prices [7] - The past ten years have seen silver's industrial demand grow, particularly in sectors like photovoltaics, AI, and semiconductors, indicating potential for further price increases [8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Expectations**: The divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in December has increased, with dovish officials citing a weak labor market as support for cuts, while hawkish officials express concerns over inflation rebound, leading to increased policy uncertainty [1][3][4][5] - **Domestic Macro Economy**: The LPR remained unchanged in November, indicating that the central bank believes there is still room for monetary policy, but the marginal efficiency is declining, making further easing unlikely this year [1][7][8] Commodity Market Insights - **Black Commodities**: There is a significant divergence in the performance of black commodities. Coal and coke prices have dropped sharply, with coking coal down 9% and coke over 4%. In contrast, iron ore has shown relative strength, increasing by approximately 1.2% [1][9][12] - **Iron Ore Market**: Iron ore has performed better than other commodities recently, but with increased shipments and port arrivals, supply-demand conflicts may intensify, leading to potential price volatility in the short term [1][12] - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market remains weak, with the gold-silver ratio hovering around 81. Factors such as internal divisions within the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions have limited upward momentum for gold [1][15] - **Oil Market**: The oil market is under pressure from a mid-term supply surplus, with IEA predicting continued oversupply in global oil markets this year and next, leading to a bearish outlook for oil prices [1][20] Specific Commodity Analysis - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is facing increased supply due to domestic production recovery and rising imports from Mongolia. The coke market is also under pressure, with limited price increases expected [1][13][14] - **Steel Market**: The rebar and hot-rolled coil markets are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with recent data showing improvements in both supply and demand, although overall market sentiment remains cautious [1][10][11] - **Nonferrous Metals**: The nonferrous metals market is generally weak, with copper prices expected to remain volatile but high. The aluminum market faces seasonal inventory increases, limiting upward price potential [1][17] - **New Energy Materials**: The polysilicon and industrial silicon markets are weak, while lithium carbonate prices have risen unexpectedly due to improved fundamentals, although risks of price declines remain [1][18][19] Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment is cautious due to mixed economic data and geopolitical uncertainties, impacting various commodity prices and investor strategies [1][6][17] - **Future Expectations**: The outlook for many commodities remains uncertain, with potential for volatility driven by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [1][20][21][25]