中国银河证券宏观经济研究 文/中国银河证券首席宏观分析师 张迪 、 中国银河证券宏观经济分析师助理 铁 伟奥 国 家 统 计 局 最 新 数 据 显 示 ， 2 0 2 5 年 4 月 份 ， 我 国 制 造 业 采 购 经 理 指 数 （PMI）为4 9 . 0%（前值50 . 5%），美国滥施关税影响初现。不过4月政 治局会议已经给出三大重要信号：一是保持国内储备政策的弹性；二是强 化底线思维，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期；三是加紧加快既定 政策的落实落地，加大加力重点领域的政策实施力度。 以下文章来源于中国银河宏观 ，作者中国银河宏观 中国银河宏观 . 国家统计局4月30日发布数据显示，2025年4月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%（前值50.5%）。建筑业商务活动指数为51.9%，比上月下降1.5个百 分点；服务业商务活动指数为50.1%，比上月下降0.2个百分点。关税的影响已全面传导至制造业企业。 供需同时收缩，出口影响较为严峻。 4月生产指数49.8%（前值52.6%）。新订单指数49.2%，新出口订单44.7%，分别下降2.6和4.3pct。4月需求下降较大， 尤其是新出口订单 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a buyout reverse repurchase operation of 1.2 trillion yuan in April to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [1][3]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - In April, the PBOC executed a buyout reverse repo operation totaling 1.2 trillion yuan, consisting of 700 billion yuan for 3-month (91 days) and 500 billion yuan for 6-month (182 days) [1][2]. - The net withdrawal from the 3-month buyout reverse repo in April was 500 billion yuan, following the maturity of 1.2 trillion yuan in 3-month and 500 billion yuan in 6-month buyout reverse repos [3]. Group 2: Future Expectations - Significant buyout reverse repos are set to mature in May and June, with 900 billion yuan for 3-month in late May and 5 billion yuan for 3-month and 1.4 trillion yuan for 6-month in late June [4]. - Analysts suggest that the reduction in April's buyout reverse repo may indicate a potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut to inject long-term liquidity into the market, thereby supporting bank lending capabilities and economic growth [4]. Group 3: Coordination with Fiscal Policy - The issuance of special government bonds is underway, with a focus on the second and third quarters, which may influence the timing of monetary policy easing [4]. - The PBOC's monetary policy is expected to work in tandem with fiscal measures, with the pace of bond issuance being a critical factor in assessing the window for monetary easing [4].

央行4月开展1.2万亿元买断式逆回购。 为保持银行体系流动性充裕，中国人民银行（下称"央行"）4月30日发布公告称，4月央行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展了1.2万亿元买断式 逆回购操作，分别为3个月（91天）7000亿元、6个月（182天）5000亿元。当天，央行还发布公告称，在4月未开展公开市场国债买卖操作。 | 期限 | 操作量 | | --- | --- | | 3个月(91天) | 7000亿元 | | 6个月(182天) | 5000亿元 | 鉴于4月分别有1.2万亿元3个月期和5000亿元6个月期买断式逆回购到期，当月3个月期买断式逆回购净回笼5000亿元。结合4月央行中期借贷便利（MLF）净 投放5000亿元，当月结束了去年10月以来央行持续释放中长期流动性的操作过程。 4月买断式逆回购缩量续作，并不意味着央行正在收紧市场流动性。"回顾历史可以看到，降准和央行中期流动管理工具之间存在替代关系。"东方金诚首席宏 观分析师王青向证券时报记者指出，央行将通过多种政策工具组合，引导市场流动性稳中向宽。 公开市场买断式逆回购操作、公开市场国债买卖操作以及MLF操作是在央行每日根据一级交易商需 ...

Group 1 - The central bank continues to inject liquidity into the market, with a significant increase in reverse repos, indicating a proactive approach to maintain market liquidity and support economic growth [1][2] - The central bank's recent operations, including a net injection of 645.8 billion yuan through reverse repos over three days, reflect a response to tightening liquidity conditions due to month-end bank assessments and increased cash withdrawal demands ahead of the holiday [1][2] - The issuance of long-term special government bonds is expected to increase liquidity demand, with 1.3 trillion yuan in special bonds planned for this year, highlighting the need for the central bank's liquidity support [2][3] Group 2 - Market interest rates, such as Shibor, show mixed movements, with some rates declining, indicating the impact of the central bank's liquidity measures [3] - The outlook for post-holiday liquidity is expected to remain loose, with the central bank likely to implement net withdrawals after large reverse repos mature, maintaining stable market rates [3][4] - There is a potential for further reductions in policy and deposit rates, with expectations for a possible 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut in the second quarter, which would enhance liquidity and lower financing costs [4]

国内 1. 高盛：预计美元还会进一步下跌。 2. 摩根大通：美联储降息将给美债带来巨大机遇。 3. 德银下调美国股指年底目标，警告关税潜在影响。 1. 中信证券：充分相信国家维护资本市场稳定的决心。 2. 中信证券：钨矿开采指标收紧，钨价中枢有望上行。 3. 中信建投：当前燃料电池车板块预期较弱，5-6月旺季可能出现销量向上拐点。 4. 华泰证券：互联网金融平台行业估值性价比凸显。 5. 华泰证券：一季度金融股仓位有所下行，把握结构机会。 6. 国金证券：医药板块具备良好的抗风险能力和成长进攻能力。 7. 招商证券：MLF净投放为银行补中期流动性，后续仍可能降准提供长期资金。 金十数据整理：每日投行/机构观点梳理（2025-04-25） 国外 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that the central bank's net injection of 500 billion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) reflects a signal to replenish mid-term liquidity for banks, suggesting a continued need for accommodative monetary policy to stabilize the economy [1] Group 1 - The central bank's net injection of 500 billion yuan in MLF is aimed at supplementing mid-term liquidity for banks [1] - The current lending scale of banks in the interbank market remains below the levels seen in the second half of last year, indicating a need for additional mid-term funding [1] - Given the increasing uncertainty in the external environment, it is essential for the central bank to maintain a moderately accommodative monetary policy [1] Group 2 - There is a possibility of further reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts by the central bank to provide long-term funding for banks [1] - The expectation is that the environment of moderately accommodative liquidity will continue [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a downward trend in government bond futures, with the 30-year main contract dropping by 0.58% to 119.190 yuan, and the 10-year main contract decreasing by 0.20% to 108.730 yuan, among others [2] - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera (511130) has seen a decline of 0.53%, with the latest price at 111.45 yuan, and a trading volume of 1.497 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [2] - Dongwu Securities suggests that the bond market is likely to remain in a narrow fluctuation pattern, with key observation points in May regarding potential reserve requirement ratio cuts and larger opportunities expected in the second half of the year [2] Group 2 - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has recorded a net inflow of 13.2028 million yuan, with 14 out of the last 21 trading days showing net inflows totaling 507 million yuan [3] - The ETF has achieved a net value increase of 13.19% over the past year, ranking 3rd out of 370 index bond funds, reflecting strong performance [3] - The maximum drawdown since the ETF's inception is 6.89%, with a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, indicating a relatively low cost structure [3]

Core Viewpoint - The April LPR (Loan Prime Rate) quotes show that both the 5-year and 1-year rates remain unchanged, indicating no interest rate cuts, which may be below some foreign investors' expectations [1][2]. Market Analysis - The market is optimistic about upcoming meetings, with expectations for more proactive measures in the real estate sector [2]. - The overall market performance is strong, with the total trading volume of the CSI All Share Index reaching 1.03 trillion, marking a return to the trillion-level [3]. - The median increase in stock prices is 1.38%, with over 4,300 stocks rising, suggesting a spontaneous market rally [3]. Investment Signals - Recent quantitative signals indicate a shift towards holding stock assets, with a reported return of 32% since September 24, compared to a 17.81% increase in the CSI 300 index [6]. - Specific stock purchases have shown varying returns, with notable gains from the 创50 ETF and 中证1000 [6][7]. Gold Investment - Gold-related funds have shown significant performance, with the 嘉实黄金 LOF experiencing a premium rate of 10.42% and a closing price of 1.802, indicating potential profitability for investors [12][14]. - The premium rates for gold LOFs are notably high, with one reaching 55.86%, suggesting strong market interest and potential for arbitrage [14]. Fund Performance - The stock-bond yield spread is currently at 6.51%, indicating a favorable market condition for equities compared to bonds [16]. - Various ETFs have been tracked, with some showing significant returns, such as the 科创100 ETF with a 15.48% return [17].

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market rose, with the ChiNext index increasing by over 1%, and total market turnover exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1] - The macroeconomic data for the first quarter showed strong export performance, supported by the "export grabbing" effect, while retail sales and fixed asset investment showed marginal improvement [1] - Concerns remain regarding potential volatility in export data due to high tariffs imposed by the US on China, although a 90-day tariff suspension from other countries provides a buffer [1] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one year remains at 3.1% and for five years or more at 3.6%, unchanged from the previous month [2] - The fiscal policy is expected to lead, with monetary policy having room to follow, indicating that a reserve requirement ratio cut may occur before interest rate cuts [2][3] Market Performance - As of April 21, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3291.43 points, up 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index rose by 1.27% and 1.59%, respectively [4] - The top-performing sectors included non-ferrous metals, computers, and beauty care, while banking, food and beverage, and real estate sectors saw declines [4] Fund Tracking - The market turnover reached 10,738.10 billion yuan, an increase from the previous trading day, while the margin financing balance decreased to 18,038.40 billion yuan [5]

北京商报讯（记者岳品瑜董晗萱）最新一期LPR出炉，降息再次落空。据人民银行官网公布，2025年4月21日贷款市场报价利率（LPR） 为：1年期LPR为3.1%，5年期以上LPR为3.6%。两大报价均与上月保持不变。自2024年10月两期限LPR分别下行25基点后，LPR已连续6个 月持稳。 一季度至今降息均落空，有着多重因素制约。一方面本月政策利率，即人民银行公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率保持不变。这意味着本月 LPR报价的定价基础未发生变化。 从最新公布的一季度金融数据来看，金融总量保持合理增长，主要指标增速出现回升。3月末，社会融资规模同比增长8.4%，人民币贷款 余额同比增长7.4%，增速较上月加快，当月人民币贷款增加3.64万亿元，同比多增近5500亿元。广义货币供应量（M2）同比增长7.0%，增 速基本稳定，金融继续保持对实体经济稳固的支持力度。 明明同时提到了外部影响因素。4月并没有美国FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）会议，而关税冲击的长期影响下汇率压力或进一步加大；4 月初离岸人民币汇率一度抬升至7.4以上，虽然当下回归7.3附近，但未来不确定性仍高，总量降息操作或等待更好的时机。 人民银行在多次重 ...