Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, initiating a new rate cut cycle for the year, with expectations of two more cuts by the end of the year [1] - The current federal funds rate is now between 4% and 4.25%, driven by disappointing non-farm employment data and inflation falling below 3% [1] - Powell's statement indicated that this rate cut is a "risk management" measure rather than the start of a continuous rate cut trend, marking a shift from his previously hawkish stance [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the rate cut announcement, U.S. stock indices initially surged but then quickly retreated, while the dollar index experienced a significant drop before rebounding [2] - Chinese concept stocks saw substantial gains, and gold prices surged, with spot gold exceeding $3,700 per ounce, reaching a historical high [2] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target to $5,000 per ounce, aligning with the long-term bullish outlook on gold prices [2] Group 3: Global Monetary Policy Implications - The Fed's rate cut may trigger a wave of rate cuts from global central banks, including the People's Bank of China, which has room for monetary policy easing [3] - This easing could support the ongoing bull market in capital markets, with a trend of savings shifting towards equities and funds becoming more pronounced [3] - Investors are encouraged to increase their allocation to stocks and funds, while also considering a 20% allocation to gold assets for value preservation [3]

In support of our goals. And in light of the shift in the balance of risks. Today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point.The labor market was in very solid condition with strong job creation and all those things. I think if you go back to April and now look at the revised job creation numbers for four May, June, July and August. You can kind of I can no longer say that we did welcome a new committee member today, as we always do, and the co ...

来源：环球市场播报 北京时间9月18日凌晨，美股周三收盘涨跌不一。美联储将基准利率25个基点符合预期，但美联储主席 鲍威尔表示，此举并不意味着央行将开启长期的降息周期。 道指涨260.42点，涨幅为0.57%，报46018.32点；纳指跌72.63点，跌幅为0.33%，报22261.33点；标普 500指数跌6.41点，跌幅为0.10%，报6600.35点。 美东时间周三下午2点，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以11比1的投票结果，将其隔夜拆借利率基准利 率下调了0.25个百分点，使隔夜资金利率区间降至4%至4.25%。央行的"利率路径点阵图"还暗示，今年 余下时间可能再实施两次降息。 就业方面，8月非农失业率升至4.3%，尽管从历史标准来看仍处于较低水平，但已创下2021年10月以来 的新高。 今年以来，美国新增就业岗位增长陷入停滞；美国劳工统计局近期发布的修正数据显示，在2025年3月 之前的12个月里，美国经济新增就业岗位数量比最初报告的少了近100万个。 美联储理事沃勒对这一状况尤为担忧，他表示，美联储应立即实施宽松政策，以防范劳动力市场未来可 能出现的问题。此外，沃勒也被视为鲍威尔主席的潜在继任者。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate cuts in the upcoming meetings, with a focus on the number and magnitude of cuts by the end of the year [1][2][3] Economic Indicators - The latest inflation data shows that the U.S. August CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly above the previous value of 2.7%, while the core CPI remained stable at 3.1% [1][2] - Employment data indicates a weak job market, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August, significantly lower than the revised July figure of 79,000 and market expectations [2][3] Federal Reserve's Actions - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points in both September and October, with further cuts dependent on employment data in December [1][3] - The expectation of rate cuts is reinforced by stable inflation and weak employment data, which may prompt the Fed to act to stimulate the job market [2][3] Asset Market Outlook - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to inject liquidity into the market, benefiting assets like U.S. stocks and gold [4][5] - U.S. stock indices reached historical highs, driven by expectations of rate cuts, although valuations are considered relatively high, limiting short-term upside potential [4] - Gold is expected to benefit from the rate cut expectations, with a projected upward trend in prices due to the combination of inflation risks and declining real interest rates [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market widely anticipates the Federal Reserve to announce interest rate cuts in the upcoming meetings, with a focus on the number and magnitude of cuts by the end of the year [1][2] - The latest inflation data shows that the US CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, aligning with market expectations, while core CPI remained stable at 3.1%, reinforcing expectations for rate cuts in October and December [1][2] - Analysts predict a high probability of two consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points each in September and October, with employment data influencing the decision for a potential December cut [1][3] Group 2 - The employment market shows signs of weakness, with August non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below expectations, which raises the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates to stimulate employment [2][3] - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to inject new liquidity into the market, benefiting risk assets such as US stocks and gold, as the Fed's "risk management-style rate cuts" could enhance global market risk appetite [3][4] - Despite the positive outlook for US stocks and gold, there are concerns about high valuations in the stock market, suggesting limited short-term upside, while the bond market may experience fluctuations [4]