Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Due to the short - term rebound of crude oil at the cost end and the decent low - price transactions of polyethylene, it is not advisable to chase short positions in LLDPE. Instead, there may be a phased rebound [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2509 yesterday was 6963, with a daily decline of - 0.16%. The trading volume was 250,761, and the open interest increased by 17,361 [1]. - **Basis and Spread Changes**: The basis of the 09 contract was 37 yesterday (compared to 90 the day before), and the 09 - 01 contract spread was 27 yesterday (compared to 37 the day before) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In the north, the price was 7000 yuan/ton yesterday (down from 7050 yuan/ton the day before); in the east, it was 7100 yuan/ton (unchanged); in the south, it was 7230 yuan/ton (down from 7250 yuan/ton the day before) [1]. Spot News - The LLDPE market price declined slightly, with a price fluctuation range of 20 - 100 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened higher, then fluctuated and declined. The market sentiment was poor. Some prices of CNPC East China, Sinopec North China, and Sinopec South China were lowered. Traders lacked confidence and mostly quoted lower prices. Downstream factories were cautious and the trading volume was average [1]. Market Condition Analysis - **Macro - aspect**: The trade war has increased global trade uncertainty. However, the short - term rebound of crude oil at the cost end and the decent low - price transactions of polyethylene make it unadvisable to chase short positions [2]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: In the 09 contract of 2025, the expected new production capacity of domestic PE plants is 205 million tons, and the supply pressure is still high. Although there are many maintenance activities in June, it is not enough to change the high - production pattern. On the demand side, the agricultural film is in the off - season, with the overall operating rate decreasing by - 1.07% compared to the previous period, and the demand will continue to decline later. The demand for packaging films is average, with the operating rate decreasing by - 0.59% compared to the previous period. Downstream factories have phased low - price replenishment, but the continuous replenishment intensity is insufficient [2]. - **Future Supply Changes**: Attention should be paid to the price difference between low - density and linear polyethylene. As the HDPE inventory continues to decline and the price difference widens, there may be a situation of capacity switching between the two. Some plants have already started to switch production. If full - density plants continue to switch to HDPE production, the supply pressure of LLDPE may be alleviated later [2]. Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].

2025/6/3 08:53 钢铁关税、法院诉讼、中国、TACO：特朗普贸易战的最新进展 - 彭博 商业 | Big Take播客 特朗普贸易战的转折点 在今天的 Big Take 播客中：特朗普对等关税的 90 天暂停期已过半，他的战略⾯临新 的挑战。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周五抵达位于宾⼣法尼亚州西⽶夫林的美国钢铁公司欧⽂⼯⼚。 摄影师： Rebecca Droke/Bloomberg 作者：Julia Press和Sarah Holder 2025年6⽉3⽇凌晨4:27（格林威治标准时间+8） 不错过任何⼀集。⽴即关注 The Big Take 每⽇播客。 ⼤拿 特朗普贸易战的转折点 17:43 特朗普总统全⾯实施互惠关税的90天暂停期已过半。这三个⽉的延期本应让 美国有时间与世界各国进⾏贸易谈判。然⽽，尽管谈判仍在进⾏，许多协议 似乎仍遥不可及。如今，针对特朗普关税策略的法律挑战⼜给政府的计划带 ⽴即获得⽆限制访问权限。 探索优惠 Get uninterrupted access to l b l C l https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06- ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant impact of the US-EU trade war on global financial markets and highlights the utility of the Sina Finance APP as a tool for investors to navigate this volatile environment [1][5]. Group 1: Trade War Overview - The US-EU trade war has escalated with threats of increased tariffs and fluctuating negotiation timelines, causing anxiety among investors [1]. - The trade conflict originated from the US imposing tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, prompting the EU to retaliate [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - The trade war has led to substantial volatility in the US stock market, with major indices like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 experiencing significant fluctuations [3]. - Various sectors, including automotive, steel, and alcoholic beverages, are analyzed for their exposure to the trade war's effects [2]. Group 3: APP Features - The Sina Finance APP provides comprehensive news updates, including the reasons behind tariff changes and the positions of key officials, ensuring investors stay informed [2]. - The APP offers robust market tracking features for stocks, futures, and foreign exchange, allowing users to monitor real-time market movements influenced by the trade war [3]. - Additional functionalities such as smart alerts and index maps help investors prepare for market changes and compare asset performance globally [4].

黄金周二（6月3日）早盘小幅上涨3392附近后开始震荡下跌，欧盘以及美盘初延续下跌，最低跌至3333附近，尾盘震荡反弹，日线收出一根阴线。 一、基本面 1、美元走强：美元周二上涨0.6%，从逾一个月低点回升，以美元计价的黄金对外国买家成本上升，抑制需求。不过，美元短期回升未改变整体承压趋势， 黄金作为避险资产吸引力仍在，但短期上行空间受美元强势限制。 2、贸易战与关税政策：特朗普提议将进口钢铁和铝关税翻倍至50%，引发市场关注。欧盟表示将推动美国降税，但美国要求贸易伙伴短时间内提交修订提 议，谈判紧迫性使市场情绪谨慎。贸易战可能致全球经济增长放缓，推高避险需求利好黄金，同时美元阶段性走强和市场对美联储政策观望又限制黄金上 涨。此外，美国参议院审议的减税和支出法案预计未来十年为联邦政府增加3.8万亿美元债务，可能削弱美元长期吸引力，间接支撑金价，而短期内外汇期 权市场交易员普遍预期美元进一步走软，或为黄金提供反弹机会。 3、美国劳动力市场疲软：美国4月职位空缺增加19.1万至739.1万，但裁员人数创九个月最大增幅达178.6万，裁员主要集中在中小企业的专业和商业服务、 医疗保健及餐饮行业。4月辞职人数减少15 ...

道明证券加拿大及全球利率策略主管Andrew Kelvin表示："我认为加拿大央行在今年剩余时间里难以确 定全球贸易形势的发展，但加拿大国内经济已经足够有韧性，加拿大央行有能力等到7月再行动。" 特朗普对包括钢铁、铝、汽车以及不符合北美贸易协定的产品在内的多种加拿大商品征收关税，损害了 劳动力市场，削弱了企业和消费者的信心。但加拿大核心通胀正在上升，第一季度经济表现超出预期， 部分原因是企业赶在关税生效前将更多商品运往美国。 加拿大央行可能不会提供太多前瞻性指引，但随着关税带来的冲击加剧，经济学家和市场预计该行今年 晚些时候将进一步降息。鉴于未来经济可能受损，决策者维持鸽派基调的可能性有所增加。 智通财经APP获悉，加拿大央行将于北京时间周三21:45公布利率决议。市场预计加拿大央行将维持隔 夜利率在2.75%不变，这将是连续第二次暂停降息，因为加拿大央行官员们正在等待美国总统唐纳德·特 朗普的贸易战最终将如何影响经济的更明确信号。 加拿大央行官员们可能会重申，如果经济数据恶化，或者如果他们认为有足够的信息来了解贸易争端将 如何发展，他们将迅速采取行动。但就目前而言，缺乏明确的信息可能会迫使他们按兵不动。 加 ...

Group 1: Macro Strategy Insights - The report indicates that exchange rates and non-tariff barriers may become more critical tools in trade conflicts, potentially replacing tariffs [1][17] - Domestic foreign trade enterprises anticipate that the US-China trade negotiations may face significant challenges, requiring ongoing risk management for exports to the US [1][17] - If tariffs fail to achieve their intended competitive goals, the US government may resort to non-tariff barriers and currency manipulation, drawing parallels to historical trade competition phases [1][17] Group 2: Fixed Income Market Overview - The structured financing market for local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) is under scrutiny, with ABS being a potential solution to alleviate financing pressures amid tightening regulations [3][4] - The development of the LGFV ABS market has evolved through several phases, influenced heavily by policy changes and market conditions [4] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - XianDao Intelligent (先导智能) is positioned to benefit from the global electric vehicle trend, with expected net profits of 10.57 billion, 17.02 billion, and 22.28 billion from 2025 to 2027, corresponding to dynamic PEs of 41, 19, and 15 times [8][9] - Mercury Home Textiles (水星家纺) is expected to see significant growth in its memory pillow segment, with sales projected to rise from 1.14 million to 6.44 million by 2027, and net profits adjusted to 3.99 billion and 4.48 billion for 2025 and 2026 [9] - Hanlan Environment (瀚蓝环境) has completed the acquisition of Yuefeng, enhancing its growth potential and cash flow, with net profit forecasts of 18.60 billion, 21.17 billion, and 22.14 billion for 2025 to 2027 [10] - Maiwei Co., Ltd. (迈为股份) plans to raise nearly 20 billion through convertible bonds for its perovskite tandem solar cell project, with expected annual revenue of 40 billion post-completion [11][12] - Ideal Auto (理想汽车) has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting 1436 billion, 2233 billion, and 2362 billion, with net profits of 82 billion, 137 billion, and 154 billion [13] - Keda Li (科达利) is projected to achieve net profits of 18.8 billion, 23.2 billion, and 27.9 billion from 2025 to 2027, benefiting from its strong market position in structural components [14] - Jiechang Drive (捷昌驱动) is expanding into the robotics sector, with net profit forecasts of 3.92 billion, 4.97 billion, and 6.40 billion for 2025 to 2027, driven by growth in various downstream markets [15][16]

Group 1 - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has downgraded its global airline industry net profit forecast for 2025 to $36 billion, down from the previous estimate of $36.6 billion, due to trade tensions and declining consumer confidence [1] - IATA predicts that total revenue for the global airline industry will reach $979 billion in 2025, with passenger numbers expected to hit 4.99 billion, both lower than previous forecasts [1] - IATA's chairman, Walsh, emphasized that increasing trade barriers could harm the economy and the airline industry, while calling for governments to keep aerospace out of trade wars [1] Group 2 - The recovery of the civil aviation passenger market post-pandemic has led to record numbers of travelers, but airlines are facing challenges due to aircraft delivery delays and supply chain bottlenecks [2] - There is a backlog of over 17,000 aircraft orders globally, significantly higher than the pre-pandemic backlog of 10,000-11,000, indicating potential delivery times extending up to 14 years [2] - IATA's report indicates that the average age of airline fleets has increased from 13 years in 2015 to 15 years, with fleet replacement rates at only half of what they were in 2020 [3]

Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Historical analysis indicates that exchange rates and non-tariff barriers may replace tariffs as key tools in trade conflicts[2] - The U.S. average effective tariff increased by nearly 9 percentage points from 1896 to 1899, highlighting the historical reliance on tariffs[2] - Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, exchange rate manipulation has become a significant weapon in international trade competition[2] Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S. international investment net gap is projected to reach 100% of GDP by 2025, indicating unsustainable trends in trade deficits[3][31] - In 2024, the U.S. goods and services trade deficit reached $917.83 billion, a significant increase of $132.95 billion from the previous year[30] - The proportion of the U.S. trade deficit attributed to China decreased from 47.48% in 2018 to 24.33% in 2024, reverting to levels seen in 2004[34] Group 3: Future Trade Policies - The U.S. government may implement more non-tariff barriers and currency interventions if trade tensions escalate, similar to measures taken during the U.S.-Japan trade competition from 1970 to 1993[4] - The U.S. federal deficit is projected to reach historical highs, complicating efforts to reduce the deficit and impacting trade policy[4] Group 4: Strategies for Domestic Enterprises - Domestic companies are encouraged to explore non-U.S. export markets and adapt production capacities to meet European trade regulations[7] - The key to "exporting to domestic sales" lies in managing payment terms, with potential improvements in the policy environment for accounts receivable[7] - The "going abroad" strategy should focus on cost management, particularly labor costs, as domestic industries face challenges in maintaining competitiveness[7]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market is expected to benefit from the inflow of risk-averse funds, with long-term interest rates slightly rising and short-term rates slightly falling [4][20][10] - The A-share market is experiencing a cautious upward trend, with the volatility of major indices at historical lows, suggesting that investors should be wary of potential increases in volatility [25][11] - The report highlights that the U.S. stock market is likely to continue its consolidation phase, with a focus on potential buying opportunities following a recession narrative [32][12] Group 2 - The report notes that the onshore RMB has depreciated against the USD, but is expected to appreciate towards 7.1, influenced by positive developments in China-US trade relations [6][37] - The commodity market is currently in a bearish trend, with the Wenhua Commodity Index hitting a new low, and investors are advised to adopt a cautious stance [40][41] - Key domestic policies include a call to resist "price war" competition in the automotive sector and a decline in the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, indicating economic contraction [46][7]

·丹斯克银行：欧元最近的上涨反映了美元的脆弱 ·招商宏观：美国第一季度工业品抢进口大幅透支未来需求 ·瑞银：继续看多10年期美债 ·丹麦央行警告：贸易战升级将对丹麦银行业构成重大风险 ·瑞士通胀四年来首次转为负值 【机构分析】 （文章来源：新华财经） ·丹斯克银行分析师在一份报告中称，欧元近期的升值反映了美元的弱势，而非欧元的强势。由于美国 的政策风险、经济增长势头放缓以及投资者信心脆弱，美元仍有下跌的风险。美元需要经济数据明显改 善才能重获支撑。在这种情况发生之前，欧元兑美元将继续走高。 ·招商宏观研报称，6月1日，BEA发布2025年3月美国分行业库存和销售数据。3月美国库存总额同比 3.47%，前值2.54%；3月销售总额同比4.05%，前值3.21%。美国本应于去年底到今年初进入主动去库阶 段，但美国关税预期推动"抢进口"，且工业品（上游为主）和消费品（汽车除外）抢进口明显超出季节 性、或透支未来需求。往后看，尽管关税因素仍有不确定性，但补库透支下美国库存周期或于第二季度 向主动去库存靠拢。 ·瑞银利率策略师在最新报告中表示，由于经济增长风险仍存，该行继续看多10年期美债。"我们认为， 市场低估了经济 ...