以下文章来源于华商韬略 ，作者华商韬略 华商韬略 . 聚焦标杆与热点、解构趋势与韬略 2018年中美贸易摩擦开始的三个月后，一家日本媒体悄悄去了义乌，走访了100家店铺，记者的 问题只有一个： 关税对你们有没有影响？ 这位记者显然听到了他想要的答案—— 制造拖车轮胎的店主说，"当然有影响了，没生意做了。"箱包店的老板说，"订单取消了，我损 失了好几万。" 作者： 东木褚 来源：华商韬略（ ID：hstl8888） 2018年，特朗普用关税对中国发动"突袭"，打了很多企业一个措手不及，外贸重镇义乌的企业 尤其艰难。 如今，面对更加疯狂的关税乱战，义乌的老板还好吗？ 01 还有人被问得直接破防了，"日本记者为什么关注中美贸易战？和你们日本有关系吗？" 末了，商贸城的一位市场运营人员道出了义乌老板最怕的事，"不仅美国，其他国家的买家也少 了，比起看得见的损失，谁都不来买东西这种看不见的损失最让人担心。" 那段时期，贸易战的阴影逐渐在义乌蔓延，从事对美出口的日韩买家减少近半，在商贸城的文具 店区，商铺数量少了一成多，当年整个市场的成交额虽然还在涨，但增长率从25%下降到了 11%，增速放缓了不少。 02 7年后的20 ...

【文/观察者网 齐倩】美国总统特朗普执意对华挑起关税战，中方予以坚决回击，采取了关税、稀土出 口管制等反制措施。4月15日，美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）刊文称，稀土是中国在此轮贸易战中最有 力的武器之一。如今的局面是，中国打出了这张"强有力"的牌，而特朗普"几乎毫无还手之力"。 4月2日，特朗普政府宣布对华商品征收"对等关税"。仅两天后，中方出台系列措施精准反击，除加征关 税外，对钐、钆、铽、镝、镥、钪、钇等7类中重稀土相关物项实施出口管制。 去年12月，中国曾宣布严控对美出口镓、锗、锑、超硬材料、石墨等相关两用物项。 报道称，目前，中国稀土出口管制的影响正在迅速显现。 美国稀土咨询公司JOC的创始人约翰·奥默罗德告诉CNN，自出口管制实施以来，至少有五家来自美国 和欧洲公司的稀土在中国的运输已被叫停。他说："他们感到很意外，有很多困惑。他们现在迫切想知 道如何才能获得所需的出口许可证。" 中国稀土产量占全球供应量的60%以上，精炼供应量占比达92% CNN制图 美国稀土公司首席执行官约书亚·巴拉德表示，此次出口管制的重点是"重"稀土，而中国控制着高达98% 的稀土。他补充说，现在，企业必须获得中国政府的批准 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Tariff issues continue to disrupt the market, being the main trading logic. Most non - US countries aim to negotiate agreements with the US. After the US delays imposing reciprocal tariffs, other countries also delay counter - measures [1]. - The market is in a high - level oscillation, lacking unilateral investment opportunities. The impact of tariffs on the real economy is gradually emerging, and risk appetite is difficult to improve significantly [2][21]. - The price trends of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and weather, showing different characteristics of oscillation, strength, or weakness. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Tariff issues continue to disrupt the market. Gold oscillated and closed higher, showing strength. The market is concerned about future Sino - US negotiation space. The actual trade has been affected, and economic downward pressure is increasing. Market sentiment is bullish, but attention should be paid to increased volatility [12]. - Investment advice: Short - term market volatility increases, so pay attention to risks [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 164.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The market is in high - level oscillation, lacking unilateral investment opportunities. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunities of short - term varieties [13]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities of short - term varieties [14]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Multiple events such as the US considering tax increases on the rich, investigating key minerals, and the slow progress of US - EU trade negotiations have occurred. The difficulty of trade negotiations persists, and the market should have a long - term expectation for tariff negotiations [15][18]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will rebound in the short term [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - New York state's manufacturing has contracted for two consecutive months, and Canada will conditionally exempt some counter - measures against US - imported cars. The EU expects US tariffs to remain unchanged. The impact of tariffs on the real economy is emerging, and the stock index is expected to oscillate weakly [20][21]. - Investment advice: Although US stocks have temporarily stabilized, they have not completely reversed their weak performance [21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The NOPA's March soybean crushing volume was lower than expected, and ANEC raised Brazil's April soybean export forecast. Domestic soybean import costs have decreased. The spot market has mixed price changes, and the basis contract is the main form of trading [22][24]. - Investment advice: The futures price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to Brazil's export quotes, US soybean growing area weather, and Sino - US relations. The spot and basis of soybean meal will be under pressure [24]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export tariff of Malaysian crude palm oil in May remains at 10%, and the reference price is lowered. The export of Malaysian palm oil from April 1 - 15 increased. The oil market oscillated. Rapeseed oil was affected by rumors, palm oil was supported by exports, and soybean oil was affected by the expectation of high soybean arrivals [25][26]. - Investment advice: It is advisable to long - allocate distant - month soybean oil. The price of palm oil will be weak until its cost - performance is fully restored [27]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Guangxi issued a drought risk warning for sugarcane. Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of April decreased year - on - year. The sugar mill's high - price sales support the futures market, but it is in the off - season, and the downstream acceptance of high prices is low. The international market may be under pressure, and the import volume is expected to increase [30][33]. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate weakly in Q2 2025, and attention should be paid to the origin weather and Brazil's crushing production [33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Starch enterprises' losses remain unchanged. The raw material cost is high, and the downstream demand is weak. The futures price difference is affected by complex factors, and the loss may lead to a reduction in production. The substitution of wheat may affect the regional price difference [34][35]. - Investment advice: The futures price difference of corn starch has complex influencing factors and is expected to have small fluctuations [36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot price of corn is stable. The import of grains is decreasing, and the inventory reduction in Northeast China is accelerating. The drought in North China wheat may affect the market [37]. - Investment advice: Before the May delivery, pay attention to inventory reduction in Northeast China and North China wheat production. Otherwise, the second - round upward repair of old - crop corn may be driven by the tightening of inventory after the May delivery [37]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In early April, the daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel increased, and the inventory increased. The steel price oscillated, and the market driver is not obvious. The market is waiting for policy signals and the impact of administrative crude steel production cuts [38][40]. - Investment advice: Be cautious about steel price rebounds, operate with light positions, and use spot for rebound hedging [41]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - In March 2025, the production of domestic cathode copper increased. The US copper industry called for export restrictions instead of tariff policies. The global economic downturn concerns and domestic supply - demand conditions may suppress copper prices [42][44]. - Investment advice: In the short term, copper prices are expected to oscillate widely. It is advisable to conduct band operations unilaterally and remain on the sidelines for arbitrage [44]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon production plan is expected to increase, but the high inventory and weak demand may put pressure on the spot price. The number of registered warehouse receipts is limited [46]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunities of going long on PS2506 at low prices and shorting PS2511 at high prices unilaterally. Hold the PS2506 - PS2511 positive arbitrage [46]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The demand for industrial silicon raw materials is weak, and the price of silica has decreased regionally. The supply is loose, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is affected by factors such as factory production reduction and policy [47]. - Investment advice: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate between 9000 - 10500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to shorting opportunities after the price rebounds [49]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The discovery of high - grade tin - tantalum mineralization in a project may affect the market sentiment. The short - term supply reduction may help the price stabilize, but the long - term external demand is uncertain due to the tariff war [50][51]. - Investment advice: Short - term lithium prices may stabilize, and short positions can consider taking profits. In the medium - long term, pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds [51]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME will add two nickel delivery warehouses in Hong Kong. The macro - market and supply - demand factors affect nickel prices. The current nickel price may be oversold, and there are opportunities for upward repair [52][53]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices, manage positions well, and find short - matching varieties to hedge risks [53]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price oscillated, following macro - news. The supply of primary lead decreased, and the raw material of recycled lead was in short supply. The import window of crude lead opened, and the inventory decreased slightly [54][55]. - Investment advice: In the short term, wait and see. Hold previous long positions and wait for buying opportunities on pullbacks. Hold the internal - external reverse arbitrage [55]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME approved four LME - approved warehousing facilities in Hong Kong. The zinc price oscillated downward, and the inventory may turn from decreasing to increasing. In the short term, zinc prices will oscillate widely, and in the medium term, it is advisable to short on rebounds [56][58]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, pay attention to shorting opportunities on medium - term rebounds near the moving average. For arbitrage, remain on the sidelines for inter - period and hold the internal - external positive arbitrage in the medium term [58]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The API crude oil inventory increased, and the IEA lowered the global oil demand growth forecast. The oil price oscillated, and the market is pessimistic about the demand outlook [59][60]. - Investment advice: The short - term crude oil price will maintain an oscillating pattern [61]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price decreased, and the basis strengthened slightly. The terminal demand is affected by tariffs, and the supply - side inventory decreased due to maintenance. In the short term, it may rebound slightly, but in the long term, it is bearish [62][63]. - Investment advice: The rebound height of the PTA industry chain is limited, and it is bearish in the medium - long term [64]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea market prices in Shandong and Henan decreased slightly. The supply is stable, and the demand is for rigid needs. The future supply may increase, and the demand is restricted by the downstream's acceptance of high - price复合肥 [65][66]. - Investment advice: The urea price will oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the demand in traditional and new delivery areas [66]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The trading volume of Shandong styrene decreased. The styrene price oscillated weakly, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively better than that of pure benzene. However, the demand after May is still under pressure [67][68]. - Investment advice: Consider taking profits on the strategy of expanding the styrene - pure benzene price difference. The styrene price is expected to be under pressure [68]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased steadily. The supply increased, and the demand improved. The price may have bottomed out, but there is still macro - uncertainty [69]. - Investment advice: Temporarily wait and see [70]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp was mainly stable, with some local price drops. The pulp price is affected by the macro - environment [71]. - Investment advice: Wait and see [73]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased slightly, and the trading was poor. The market is affected by tariffs and domestic stimulus policies [74]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the impact of tariffs on demand and the scale and type of domestic stimulus policies [74]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories decreased locally. The bottle chip market is affected by raw materials and tariffs. The supply and demand both increase, and the processing fee is expected to oscillate at a low level [75][76]. - Investment advice: The processing fee of bottle chips will oscillate in a low - level range [76]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - In 2025, the national carbon emission trading market work started. Three industries will be included in the carbon market, and the carbon emission price is expected to be under pressure [77]. - Investment advice: The CEA price will be under pressure [78]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the southwest market oscillated at a low level. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak [79]. - Investment advice: The soda ash futures price is expected to be under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rebounds in the medium term [79]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market was stable. The glass price decreased, and the demand in different regions is different [80]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the near - month contract will be under pressure. Consider going long on distant - month contracts on large pullbacks, but the rebound space is not optimistic [81][82]. 3.2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - MSC is expected to become the world's largest terminal operator. The spot index is lower than expected, and the market is worried about the excess capacity on the US line [83]. - Investment advice: The excess capacity on the US line may suppress the upward space of the market. The European line will be weak in the short term. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities due to sentiment over - selling [83].

Core Viewpoint - The European credit rating agency Scope warns that the United States may face a credit downgrade if ongoing trade wars undermine trust in the dollar or if extreme measures, such as capital controls, are implemented by Trump [1] Group 1 - Continuous trade wars could weaken confidence in the US dollar [1] - Potential extreme measures by Trump, including capital controls, could lead to a credit downgrade [1]

Two of the biggest US banks, Citigroup and Bank of America, notched better-than-expected profits in the first three months of this year as traders raked in higher revenues amid President Donald Trump’s threat to start a global trade war.The banks reaped the benefits of investors adjusting their portfolios after being spooked about a possible return to protectionist trade policies, following a similar trend at fellow Wall Street giants JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs.President Trump had unveiled a string of ‘reci ...

Summary of Conference Call on Oil Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the oil market, discussing recent price declines and the impact of tariffs and OPEC's production decisions on global oil prices [1][2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Recent Price Declines**: - Domestic oil prices have dropped to around $48-$50 per barrel, while WTI prices have fallen below $60 per barrel [1]. - The decline is attributed to increased tariffs initiated by the U.S. and subsequent retaliatory measures from China, leading to concerns about a potential global economic slowdown [2][3]. 2. **Impact of Tariffs**: - The U.S. has raised tariffs on a wide range of goods, which is expected to increase domestic inflation by 1% and delay potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to Q4 of this year [2][3]. - The International Monetary Fund has revised global economic growth forecasts down to 2.3%, significantly lower than previous estimates [2]. 3. **OPEC's Production Increase**: - OPEC announced a production increase of 410,000 barrels per day for May, which is three times the expected increase, exacerbating the decline in oil prices [4][20]. - This decision is seen as a response to the ongoing trade war and the negative economic outlook [22]. 4. **China's Oil Demand**: - China's crude oil imports for January and February decreased by 5% year-over-year, influenced by stricter U.S. sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan oil and domestic port restrictions [5][6]. - The demand for crude oil in China is expected to decline further due to the rise of electric vehicles [6]. 5. **U.S. Oil Production and Inventory**: - As of March 28, U.S. crude oil production reached 13.58 million barrels per day, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [7]. - U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 6.45 million barrels, indicating a surplus in supply [19]. 6. **Market Sentiment and Future Outlook**: - The market sentiment is pessimistic, with expectations that WTI prices could drop to $40-$45 per barrel if the trade war continues [21][23]. - OPEC's strategy appears to be aimed at maintaining market share rather than supporting prices, which could lead to further price declines [25][26]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The call highlighted the potential for a significant drop in oil prices due to the ongoing trade tensions and OPEC's production decisions, suggesting that the market may not stabilize until prices reach around $40 per barrel [23][26]. - The discussion also touched on the geopolitical landscape, indicating that a direct conflict between the U.S. and Iran is unlikely in the short term, which could prevent a spike in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions [27]. - The overall strategy for oil-related investments is to consider short positions, as further declines in oil prices and related chemical products are anticipated [28].

场，很多资金都在避险回撤。 当然贴水扩大不一定100%下跌，否则照着贴水买涨跌不早就发财了，贴水波动反应的是市场情绪，我如实描述，尤其是这些情绪现在一般都被媒体忽 视。我最近逛国内财经网站的时候，总觉得内容报道时的倾向性越来越明显。 昨晚的文章简单提到了1985年的广场协议，为了方便读者理解我做了简化描述，其实当时参与协议的除了日本美国外，还有英法和西德，加起来一共5个 国家。 这5个国家里日本和西德是主要的顺差国，美国是主要逆差国，英国是给美国站场子的，法国是来浑水摸鱼的。最后协议的主要内容是让日元和德国马克 升值，以此来缓解美国的贸易逆差。 日本在日元升值后，多次降息对冲，放大国内金融杠杆，最终在90年代崩盘衰退。不过1985年日元升值以后，日本资本大量投资海外，在海外没少挣钱， 实际上没有"消失的30年"那么惨。 德国在广场协议后马克对美元也升值了70%，但是德国是一个对金融杠杆始终很谨慎的国家，即便出口受阻也不愿意过度刺激，坚持3%以上的利率以及 财政紧缩，控制了风险。另外就是90年代东西德合并，以及东欧剧变、苏联崩溃，这些为德国经济的再次启动提供了市场土壤。 大致就是这样，1985年的日本和2025 ...

导 语 ：视频纠正了美国群众的认知，即使是美国消费者认为的高端欧洲品牌，产品也在中国 制造。 特朗普的贸易战在TikTok上"火了"，推动中国电商平台Dhgate登上美国应用商店榜首。 在特朗普将美国对中国进口商品的关税提高145%之后，许多中国供应商和制造商开始制作TikTok视 频，向消费者解释全球奢侈品市场的真实运作方式。这些视频解释说，许多人以为是在欧洲制造的 服装、手袋和其他配饰，实际上都来自中国的工厂。 受这一趋势影响，中国批发电商平台Dhgate的排名飙升，截至周一上午，成为美国应用商店中排名 第三的免费iPhone应用。 作为对比，根据应用情报提供商Appfigures的数据，截至4月11日周五，该应用在美国的非游戏类免 费iPhone应用中排名第352位，随后在周日跃升至第6位，周一达到第3位。周一，Dhgate还在免费 iPhone应用的总排行榜（包括游戏）上攀升至第3位。 该公司向记者表示，4月12日周六，Dhgate应用在应用商店和谷歌商店的下载量达到35400次，比30 天平均值增长了56%。其中，美国占了17300次安装，比30天平均值增长了98%。 4月13日周日，iOS上的安装 ...

报告日期：2025 年 4 月 15 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：进出口规模平稳增长 一季度我国贸易出口 6.13 万亿元，实现 6.9%的较快增长，在压力下展现强劲韧 性，中国制造高端化、智能化、绿色化转型动能强劲，新能源产品继续在全球绿 色转型中发挥重要作用；进口 4.17 万亿元，下降 6%，国内工业生产较快增长、 零部件和设备进口增加，消费市场平稳向好、部分民生商品进口增加。美国 3 月 一年期通胀预期升至 3.58%、创 18 个月新高，中长期通胀预期均稳定；3 月失业 恐慌情绪创疫情以来最严重程度，特朗普关税助燃通胀前景。OPEC 将今明两年 全球石油需求增长预期下调了约 10 万桶/日，原因是特朗普的关税冲击对消费造 成了影响。尽管哈萨克斯坦表示控制供应，但该国再次提高了产量，上月日产增 至 185.2 万桶，比承诺的高 42.2 万桶。 重点品种：股指、原油、贵金属 股指：美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指继续反弹，纺织服饰板块领涨，家用 电器板块领跌，全市成交额 1.31 万亿元，其中 IH2504 上涨 0.54%，IF2504 上涨 0.20%，IC2504 上涨 0.27%，IM2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Soybean Oil**: The Y2509 contract of soybean oil may face short - term consolidation [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Due to multiple factors, soybean meal may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations [2]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the corn futures price will be range - bound, and an interval operation strategy is recommended [3]. - **Copper**: Maintain a tactical defense and focus on the monthly K - line pattern [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2505 contract of lithium carbonate may show a weak - side oscillatory trend, and short positions can be taken on rallies [5][6]. - **Steel**: With the gradual digestion of macro - negative factors, a strategy of buying on dips at low levels is recommended for steel [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Due to ample supply, coking coal and coke may have a limited - space, weak - side oscillatory rebound at low levels [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore 2505 contract will be range - bound in the short term, and traders are advised to be cautious [9]. - **Crude Oil**: After the sharp decline of the WTI main contract, pay attention to the rebound near the support level of 430 - 450 yuan/ton for the INE crude oil main contract [10]. - **Rubber**: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber, and there is support around 14,000 yuan/ton for the main contract [11]. - **PVC**: With a slight improvement in macro - sentiment, the futures price may oscillate at a low level [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures market is expected to show a short - term weak - side oscillatory trend [13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The price of first - grade soybean oil at Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil is 8,320 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - **Market Analysis**: During the current period, it is the U.S. soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season. South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The medium - term supply and demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and the medium - term inventory may be stable [1]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3,300 yuan/ton, Tianjin 3,720 yuan/ton, Rizhao 3,440 yuan/ton, and Dongguan 3,220 yuan/ton [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - U.S. tariff policy has caused market panic. Brazilian soybean harvesting is nearly complete, and the export outlook for U.S. soybeans is pessimistic. The supply of domestic soybean meal is still tight, and Brazilian soybeans are expected to arrive in mid - to late April. The downstream inventory is low, and the trading volume has increased slightly [2]. Corn - **Spot Information**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in different regions are provided, such as 2,090 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, and 2,290 yuan/ton in North China and the Huanghuai region [3]. - **Market Analysis**: U.S. tariff hikes have increased the cost of corn imports. The U.S. corn market is oscillating strongly. In China, the supply pressure has eased, and the demand is expected to increase. However, there are still potential suppressing factors [3]. Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 74,430 - 74,670 yuan, down 555 yuan, with a discount of 30 - a premium of 20 [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Global "irrational" tariffs have caused turmoil in overseas capital markets. The Fed's stance reflects uncertainty. Domestically, policies are boosting market sentiment. The raw material supply problem has not been resolved, and the copper price is in a state of resonance [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 70,750 yuan/ton (+250), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 69,350 yuan/ton (+250) [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The forward price of spodumene concentrate is decreasing. Supply is increasing, and demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive up prices. The inventory is increasing, and the price has declined synchronously [5][6]. Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,170 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.13%, the social inventory is 5.9095 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.0712 million tons [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of steel are improving, and the contango structure is weakening. The cost is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The market is affected by both macro - policy expectations and fundamentals [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,200 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,330 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.4756 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.1713 million tons [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is ample, demand is weak, inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [8]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts iron ore index is 98.35, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 765 yuan, and the price of Australian powder ore (62% Fe) is 764 yuan [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors are intertwined. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is mixed. The U.S. tariff policy has restricted the upward movement of prices [9]. Crude Oil - **Spot Information**: Not provided in the report. - **Market Analysis**: The impact of U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" is fading. OPEC is increasing production, but global demand is under pressure due to trade wars and geopolitical uncertainties [10]. Rubber - **Spot Information**: Not provided in the report. - **Market Analysis**: U.S. tariffs have hit China's tire and automobile exports. The global supply and demand of rubber are both loose, and the demand may be severely restricted [11]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,840 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan increase; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,080 yuan/ton, unchanged [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The production start - up rate has decreased. Demand remains weak, and the inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate at a low level [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,446.88 yuan/ton, a 3.12 - yuan decrease [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, inventory is slightly decreasing, and demand is mediocre. The futures market is under pressure [13].