一、基本面 昨日1月8日（星期四），黄金早盘在4466附近受阻开始下跌，一直震荡下跌到美盘前，最低跌至4408/4407区域，美盘企稳开始上涨，收盘前最高上涨至 4479/4480区域，日线收出一根带有长下影线的阳线。 1、美国就业数据成焦点 2、四小时级别：结构层面，整体分析思路维持不变，核心仍围绕4500/4501的突破情况展开：若价格持续受限于该区间下方，需重点观察C浪调整走势；若 成功向上突破，则大概率处于第5浪上涨行情。 点位方面，下方支撑先关注4446/4445、4437/4436区域。上述两个位置分别对应黄金自4408/4407上行至4484过程中的黄金分割比例0.5及0.618对应的支撑 位，同时4446/4445区域也是凌晨金价首次冲高至4465遇阻回落后的低点位置，4437/4436区域则是欧盘及美盘初期反复承压震荡的位置，该区域突破后行情 启动加速上涨，若价格回落，需关注该区域的顶底转换效应。此外，需重点留意昨日低点4408/4407区域支撑，若金价在未突破4500/4501阻力前率先下破该 支撑位，则基本可确认行情进入C浪调整阶段。 上方阻力重点关注4500/4501，该位置为本周当前 ...

Market Overview - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 270.03 points, or 0.55%, closing at 49,266.11 points. In contrast, the Nasdaq fell by 104.25 points, or 0.44%, ending at 23,480.02 points, while the S&P 500 index saw a slight increase of 0.53 points, or 0.01%, to close at 6,921.46 points [4][5]. Economic Outlook - Fitch Ratings has raised its GDP growth forecast for the US for 2025 and 2026, adjusting estimates due to delayed economic data from the government shutdown at the end of last year. The Federal Reserve is expected to lower the federal funds rate to 3.25% in the first half of 2026 [6]. - US Treasury Secretary Becerra indicated that most models suggest the Fed's interest rate range may fall between 2.5% and 3.25%, emphasizing that rates remain significantly above neutral levels [7]. Inflation and Employment - A monthly survey from the New York Federal Reserve revealed an increase in US inflation expectations for December, while consumer confidence in the job market has dropped to its lowest level in over 12.5 years [8]. Energy Sector - Oil prices increased, with WTI crude for February rising by 3.2% to settle at $57.76 per barrel, and Brent crude for March up by 3.4% to $61.99 per barrel. Energy stocks saw a broad increase, with ExxonMobil rising over 3%, Chevron up more than 2%, and ConocoPhillips increasing by over 5% [10][11]. Mining Industry - Glencore and Rio Tinto have resumed negotiations to potentially create the world's largest mining company, with a combined market value exceeding $260 billion. This merger is taking place against a backdrop of increasing competition for copper resources [14]. Technology Sector - The performance of major tech stocks was mixed, with the US Tech Giants Index declining by 0.27%. Notable movements included Amazon rising nearly 2% and Google increasing over 1%, while Apple fell by 0.5%, marking its seventh consecutive day of decline due to high interest rate expectations impacting growth stock valuations [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - Strava has secretly filed for an initial public offering (IPO) and may go public as early as this spring, driven by improving investor confidence and risk appetite due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Strava, headquartered in San Francisco, combines exercise tracking with social networking, allowing users to monitor various sports performances, set goals, share progress, and stay motivated [3]. - The company was founded in 2009 and saw a surge in popularity during the COVID-19 pandemic [3]. Group 2: Financial Aspects - In May of the previous year, Strava achieved a valuation of $2.2 billion following a funding round [3]. - The upcoming IPO is expected to provide potential exit opportunities for long-term investors, including Sequoia Capital and TCV [3]. Group 3: Market Context - The U.S. IPO market is projected to rebound by 2026, with companies that postponed their listings during the government shutdown eager to go public early in the year [3]. - Recently, Brazilian digital bank PicPay refiled its IPO application in the U.S. after previously canceling its initial plans in 2021 due to market weakness [3].

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate is pushing legislation against further military actions in Venezuela, with five Republican senators breaking ranks [1] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a three-year extension of subsidies for the Affordable Care Act, but faces significant resistance in the Senate [2] - Apple CEO Tim Cook's potential successor has been revealed, focusing on hardware and previously involved in foldable phone development [6] Group 2 - Glencore and Rio Tinto have resumed merger talks, aiming to create the world's largest mining company [7] - A Goldman Sachs survey indicates institutional investors' bearish sentiment towards oil is at its highest level in nearly a decade [9]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market opened lower but closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up by 0.55%, the S&P 500 up by 0.01%, and the Nasdaq down by 0.44% [1] - Major technology stocks mostly declined, with Intel down over 3%, Nvidia down more than 2%, and Microsoft down over 1% [2] - Energy stocks saw a strong performance, with the S&P 500 energy index rising by 3.2%, marking the largest single-day increase since April 2025 [3] Sector Performance - Storage sector stocks fell broadly, with SanDisk down over 5%, Seagate Technology down over 7%, and Western Digital down over 6% [2] - Defense stocks performed strongly, with Lockheed Martin up over 4% and Northrop Grumman up over 2%, both stocks reaching intraday gains of over 9% [2] - Energy stocks, including ConocoPhillips up over 5% and ExxonMobil up over 3%, contributed to the overall market strength [3] Commodity Prices - International oil prices surged, with NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent crude oil both rising by 4%, closing at $58.40 and $62.79 per barrel, respectively [3][4] - Gold prices slightly increased, nearing the $4,490 mark, while silver prices fluctuated, initially dropping over 1.6% before recovering above $77 per ounce [5][6] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.09%, with notable gains from Century Internet up nearly 11% and Bilibili up over 6% [4] - However, some Chinese stocks faced declines, with Brain Rejuvenation down over 21% and several others, including Dada Group and Baidu, down over 3% [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - Mixed opinions exist regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with some institutions predicting only one rate cut this year, while others anticipate two cuts [7] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, with President Trump hinting at a decision regarding the Fed chair position [7]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.55% and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.44% [1] - The Chinese concept stocks saw a rise, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index up by 1.09% [1] - Market traders are factoring in expectations for at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, despite previous signals indicating only one cut might occur in 2026 [1] Commodity Market - International crude oil futures saw significant increases, with WTI crude oil futures up by 3.16% and Brent crude oil futures up by 3.39% [2] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.48%, while COMEX silver futures fell by 1.19% [2] Economic Forecasts - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office projects that the GDP growth rate will accelerate to 2.2% by 2026, with an expected unemployment rate of 4.6% [5] - The United Nations forecasts a global economic growth rate of 2.7% for 2026, slightly down from 2.8% in 2025, citing ongoing trade tensions and fiscal pressures [9] Corporate Developments - Glencore is in preliminary discussions with Rio Tinto regarding a potential merger, which may involve a full stock merger [9]

Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 Energy Index rose by 3.2%, marking the largest single-day increase since April [1] - The S&P 1500 Consumer Discretionary Index increased by 1.8%, reaching a historical high [1] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Intel down over 3% and Microsoft down over 1%, while Google, Amazon, and Tesla rose over 1% [1] Group 2: Stock Movements - Nvidia fell over 2%, resulting in a market value loss of approximately $98.9 billion (around 69 billion RMB) [2] - Defense stocks surged, with companies like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman seeing significant price increases [2] - Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up by 1.09% [2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs released a report predicting a 20% increase in the MSCI China Index and a 12% increase in the CSI 300 Index by 2026 [3] - The report maintains an overweight rating on A-shares and H-shares in the Asian market [3] - Gold prices reached $4,470 per ounce, with a 0.35% daily increase, and the World Gold Council reported a 67% year-on-year growth rate for 2025 [3] Group 4: Commodity Prices - International crude oil futures saw a significant increase, with WTI crude oil futures up by 3.16% to $57.76 per barrel [4] - Brent crude oil futures rose by 5% to $62.96 per barrel [4] Group 5: Interest Rate Expectations - U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that further economic strength requires larger interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [6] - Federal Reserve Governor expressed expectations for a 150 basis point rate cut by 2026 to boost the labor market [6] - Fitch Ratings anticipates two rate cuts in the first half of 2026, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.25% [7]

Market - On January 9, U.S. stock markets showed mixed results with the Dow Jones rising by 0.55% and the Nasdaq falling by 0.44% due to sector rotation, leading investors to withdraw from technology stocks [1][2] - Notable declines were seen in major tech stocks such as Nvidia, Oracle, and Apple, with Apple experiencing a continuous drop for seven trading days [2] - The defense sector performed well, driven by geopolitical concerns, while economic data indicated an increase in U.S. productivity and a decrease in labor costs [1][2] Company - Intel's stock rose by 2% after President Trump praised the company and its CEO, Chen Linwu, on social media, highlighting the government's investment in Intel [16] - Apple is reportedly accelerating its succession planning for CEO Tim Cook, with hardware engineering head John Ternus being a potential successor [16] - Anta Sports is in talks to acquire a 29% stake in Puma from the Pinault family, as Puma faces operational challenges [16] - Paramount reiterated its $30 per share offer to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, despite multiple rejections from the board [18]

晚间（1月8日），美国三大股指集体下跌，纳指更是在开盘后跳水，截至收盘，道指收盘上涨270.03 点，涨幅为0.55%，报49266.11点；纳指跌104.26点，跌幅为0.44%，报23480.02点；标普500指数涨0.52 点，涨幅为0.01%，报6921.45点。 中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数在低开后爆发，截至收盘，热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金 龙指数涨1.09%。哔哩哔哩涨逾6%，腾讯音乐、阿里巴巴涨超5%，金山云、小鹏汽车等涨超3%，京 东、唯品会等涨超2%，中通快递、富途控股等涨超1%。 另外值得注意的是黄金与白银，截至发稿，现货黄金跌超0.6%，白银更是暴跌逾5%。 世界黄金协会发布公告称，黄金在2025年12月份录得4%的涨幅，推动全年同比增长率达67%，创下数 十年来的最高年度回报纪录。2025年12月贵金属（包括白银和铂金）的飙升以及大宗商品指数再平衡， 可能在短期内引发市场波动。 据报道，美国财长贝森特表示，当前经济若要进一步走强，唯一欠缺的因素是美联储更大幅度的降息。 美联储理事米兰表示，他期望2026年降息150个基点，以提振劳动力市场。米兰在描述货币政策具有限 制性时表 ...

CBO预计，目前处于3.5%至3.75%区间的短期利率，到今年第四季度将降至约3.4%，并在此水平附近维 持至2028年。这意味着，美联储在完成有限的政策调整后，或将进入较长时间的观望期。 智通财经APP获悉，美国国会预算办公室(CBO)周四发布最新经济展望称，美联储可能还会小幅下调利 率，以"应对劳动力市场的下行风险"，但在此之后将暂停进一步宽松。报告指出，在关税上调以及特朗 普政府减税政策刺激需求的背景下，通胀预计将在未来数年持续高于美联储2%的目标水平。 经济增长方面，CBO预计美国今年经济增速将加快至2.2%，但在2027年至2028年期间，平均增速将回 落至1.8%。报告指出，人工智能推动的生产率提升以及减税政策带来的企业投资增加，将在一定程度 上抵消移民减少导致劳动力增速放缓的负面影响。 在宏观数据方面，CBO预测，美国失业率将在今年底升至4.6%，随后逐步回落，并于2028年降至 4.4%。以美联储偏好的指标衡量，通胀率预计今年降至2.7%，到2028年进一步回落至2.1%，但在相当 一段时间内仍高于政策目标。 总体来看，CBO的判断较美联储官员自身的预测略显悲观。美联储政策制定者在去年12月中 ...