Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core View - Due to the escalation of tariff games and heightened expectations of monetary easing, as well as the influence of risk aversion, the bond market has risen significantly. Short - term risk aversion still favors the bond market, and the Treasury bond futures market may be strong. However, as bond yields approach the previous low of the year and the downward trend of capital interest rates has stalled, it may restrict the decline of long - term bond yields. Attention should be paid to the central bank's capital injection and subsequent pro - consumption and loose fiscal policies, which may bring fluctuations to the bond market [1][6][13] Summary by Directory 1. Tariff Game Escalation, Rising Expectations of Monetary Easing - The US announced a "reciprocal tariff" plan, increasing tariffs on China by 34%, with cumulative tariffs potentially exceeding 60%. China imposed a 34% tariff on all US imports in response. The tariff game and trade friction may enter a deeper stage [1] - In the previous round of trade frictions in 2018, China's exports to the US declined rapidly. This time, with higher tariff increases, short - term net exports are likely to fall. In Q1 2025, the contribution rate of net exports to China's GDP reached 45.8%. Under the pressure of external demand, the market's expectation of looser monetary policy has increased. Short - term reserve requirement ratio cuts may be relatively mature, while interest rate cuts still need fundamental signals [2] 2. Risk Aversion Drives the Stock - Bond Seesaw to Favor the Bond Market - The current trade game has entered a deeper stage, and there is great uncertainty about the actual implementation of tariffs, negotiation conditions, and time, which may suppress risk appetite in the short term. The stock market declined significantly today, which is favorable for the bond market from the perspective of the stock - bond seesaw. In the medium term, domestic policies are sufficient, and the domestic economy has resilience, but the short - term decline in global risk appetite will continue to support the bond market [6] 3. Capital Interest Rates Have Not Declined Further, Need to Pay Attention to the Impact of Subsequent Growth - Stabilizing Policies on the Bond Market Rhythm - Since early April, capital interest rates and certificate of deposit rates have declined, which has boosted the bond market. However, the decline of capital interest rates has stalled. On April 7, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 301.7 billion yuan in the open market, and the 7 - day capital interest rate of depository institutions was around 1.75%, and the non - bank capital interest rate was around 1.8%, not lower than before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival [7] - As of April 7, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has dropped to around 1.64%, only 4BP away from the January low. Currently, the decline in bond yields is mainly due to risk aversion and easing expectations. Considering the short - term pressure of RMB depreciation, it is uncertain whether capital interest rates can decline further. As bond yields approach the previous low, a 35 - 40BP interest rate cut is gradually being priced in, but the policy rhythm is still uncertain. Fiscal policies are likely to be strengthened in Q2, and subsequent capital interest rate trends and growth - stabilizing policies will determine the bond market rhythm [8] 4. Outlook for Treasury Bond Futures - Affected by expectations of monetary easing, risk aversion, and the stock - bond seesaw effect, Treasury bond futures opened higher and closed up today. Short - term risk aversion still favors the bond market, but the lack of further decline in capital interest rates may restrict the decline of long - term bond yields. Attention should be paid to the central bank's capital injection and bank - to - bank capital. Subsequent pro - consumption and loose fiscal policies may bring fluctuations to the bond market. It is recommended that investors hold long positions in the short term and stop profits in a timely manner if capital interest rates rise marginally [13]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoint 受月初资金面转松以及避险情绪升温影响，上周债市整体走强，长债收益率大幅下行，短端利率下行幅度小于长端，收益率曲线转而平坦化；本周债市料将延续强势，因美国超预期加征关税冲击全球经济，加剧出口下行压力，叠加房地产市场低迷，市场对基本面偏弱预期加深，且降准降息等逆周期调节政策必要性上升，提升宽货币预期，在市场避险情绪持续高涨、出口预期转弱叠加宽货币预期升温背景下，债市短期内将延续强势[1]。 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Market Review - **Secondary Market**: 上周债市整体走强，10年期国债期货主力合约累计上涨0.64%，10年期国债收益率较前周五下行9.46bp，1年期国债收益率较前周五下行4.50bp，期限利差明显收窄；周一至周二债市偏弱震荡，周三至周四因资金面宽松、避险情绪高涨而大幅走强[1][3]。 - **Primary Market**: 上周共发行利率债44只，环比减少48只，发行量6999亿，环比减少1229亿，净融资额4792亿，环比减少2127亿；分券种看，国债发行量、净融资额环比增加，政金债、地方债发行量及净融资额环比减少；利率债认购需求整体尚可，国债平均认购倍数3.94倍，政金债3.50倍，地方债20.54倍[9]。 3.2 Last Week's Important Events 3月官方制造业PMI继续回升，制造业PMI指数为50.5%，比2月上升0.3个百分点，非制造业商务活动指数为50.8%，比2月上升0.4个百分点；制造业PMI上升受春节影响消退、战略性新兴产业景气度上升、稳增长政策发力等因素拉动，非制造业服务业PMI回升受促消费政策和AI大模型发布等提振[11]。 3.3 Real Economy Observation 上周生产端高频数据涨跌不一，石油沥青装置开工率小幅回落，半胎钢开工率与前一周基本持平；需求端BDI指数继续回落，30大中城市商品房销售面积大幅回落；物价方面，猪肉价格微幅下跌，大宗商品价格多数下滑，螺纹钢、原油、铜价格均回落[12]。 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation 上周央行公开市场净回笼资金5019亿元；R007、DR007均显著下行，股份行同业存单发行利率继续大幅下行，各期限国股直贴利率均下行，质押式回购成交量明显回升，银行间市场杠杆率继续波动上行[21]。

Core Viewpoint - FOFs are increasingly allocating to gold ETFs and index bond funds due to global monetary easing, de-dollarization trends, and rising risk aversion, with gold ETFs becoming a focal point for investment in 2024 [2][4]. Group 1: Gold ETF Investment - In 2024, gold ETFs significantly outperformed other asset classes, with the London spot gold price rising 27.23% to $2,624 per ounce, and the AU9999 gold tracked by the Huazhong Gold ETF increasing 28.19% to 614 yuan per gram [4]. - The Huazhong Gold ETF managed by Xu Zhiyan had a management scale of 41.6 billion yuan as of March 31, 2024, with a return of 27.45% for 2024 and 18.64% for the first quarter of 2025 [4]. - Factors driving gold's strong performance include the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, global central banks' continued gold purchases exceeding 1,000 tons, and increased global policy uncertainty [4][6]. Group 2: Index Bond Fund Trends - The allocation of FOFs to index bond funds has rapidly increased, while the share of traditional pure bond funds has declined. By the end of 2024, the allocation to index bond funds rose by 3.81%, while pure bond funds fell by 8.25% [7][8]. - As of the end of 2024, FOFs held 28.299 billion yuan in pure bond funds, accounting for 23.86% of total holdings, while mixed equity funds accounted for 14.11% [7]. - The shift towards index bond funds is attributed to a preference for passive management, cost control, transparency, and the growing institutionalization of the bond market [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in the bond market driven by rising global risk aversion following the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by U.S. President Trump, which has led to increased demand for U.S. Treasury futures and domestic bond futures [1][3][7]. Group 1: U.S. Bond Market Performance - On April 3, U.S. Treasury futures experienced significant gains across all maturities, with 2-year futures up by 0.16%, 5-year futures up by 0.48%, 10-year futures up by 0.74%, and long-term futures up by 1.32% [3][4]. - Since March 28, the 10-year U.S. Treasury futures have cumulatively risen nearly 2%, while long-term Treasury futures have increased over 3% [4][5]. Group 2: Domestic Bond Market Performance - The domestic bond market has also shown strong performance, with the 30-year Treasury futures rising by 0.86% on April 2 and over 1% on April 3. The 10-year futures increased by 0.51%, 5-year futures by 0.38%, and 2-year futures by 0.15% [5][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions to Tariff Announcements - Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" has heightened market risk aversion, leading to a decline in U.S. stock futures and a drop in the dollar, while U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply and gold prices rose, indicating typical safe-haven trading behavior [7]. - The market sentiment is expected to remain under pressure, particularly for sectors with high exposure to external demand, although strong domestic demand could provide a counterbalance [7]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Outlook - The current volatility in the bond market has increased the operational difficulty for bond investors, necessitating a higher level of research and analysis from investment managers [8]. - Despite recent improvements in economic indicators, the overall impact of tariff policies on exports remains uncertain, and the bond market may lack strong upward or downward momentum in the short term [8][9].

Group 1: Tariff Policy - The U.S. has implemented a 10% "minimum baseline tariff" on trade partners, with higher tariffs on specific countries, effective April 5 and April 9 [1] - The "reciprocal tariffs" include 34% on China, 20% on the EU, and varying rates on other countries such as 46% on Vietnam and 49% on Cambodia [1] - Certain goods, including steel, aluminum, and specific minerals, are exempt from these tariffs [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the tariffs, U.S. stock futures dropped significantly, with Nasdaq futures down over 4% and S&P 500 futures down over 3% [2] - The S&P 500 index has seen a cumulative decline of approximately 6.4% in the first 50 trading days of Trump's second term, marking one of the worst performances since 1950 [2] - Asian markets also reacted negatively, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index dropping 1.91% at the open [2] Group 3: Economic Impact - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model has revised the U.S. GDP forecast for Q1 2025 down to -3.7%, indicating a worsening economic outlook [3] - The American Retail Federation warns that tariffs will be passed on to consumers, negatively impacting millions of U.S. businesses [3] - Piper Sandler predicts that tariffs will increase U.S. inflation by 2.6 percentage points and lead to a 1% annualized contraction in the economy over the next three months [3] Group 4: International Response - International criticism of U.S. protectionism is growing, with various countries expressing opposition to the tariff policies [4] - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasized that the U.S. should address its own issues rather than blaming others, warning that such actions could disrupt global markets [5] - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen indicated that their governments are preparing countermeasures against U.S. tariffs [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the rising interest in gold due to increasing uncertainty in the market, particularly in light of upcoming tariffs announced by President Trump, which are expected to impact global economic growth [2][3] - Gold prices have shown a slight increase, with the current price reported at $3127.84 per ounce, reflecting a 0.46% rise, and trading within a range of $3107.29 to $3135.60 during the day [1][2] - Analysts from the World Gold Council indicate that the prevailing risk aversion among investors is a significant factor driving the renewed interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that gold has broken through a significant upward trend line, indicating potential for further upward movement, with various moving averages aligned in a bullish formation [2] - On a daily chart, gold continues to maintain a bullish trend without signs of a peak, while on a 4-hour chart, it is experiencing a consolidation phase at high levels [3] - Short-term indicators on the hourly chart show a mixed signal, suggesting a potential for continued upward movement but also indicating a possible short-term peak [3]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 强劲 | 靴子即将落地，对等关税幅度或超预期，避险情绪高涨，俄乌谈判停滞，博弈 加剧，未来特朗普变数仍然较大，长期不确定困扰仍在，中长期看全球旧秩序 | | | | 破坏，黄金配置价值长存，长多可介入【715-744】 | | 白银 | 高位震荡 | 白银需求受多国刺激经济、美国欧洲中国等货币政策预期宽松等影响有增量， 但是短期情绪过度反应，短期需求面有反复，商品属性比重较多，白银品种弹 | | | | 性大，关注 8550 附近表现，如果冲破，则新的交易空间打开。【8350-8550】 | | 铜 | 承压回落 | 特朗普关税冲击增加，美国数据疲软，经济衰退和需求不足担忧重现，短期多单止 盈落袋增加，铜延续回落，跌破 8 万整数关口支撑，建议投机等待充分回调后再背 | | | | 靠均线入场，中长期铜上行趋势仍在，沪铜关注区间【79000-81000】 | | 锌 | 回落 | 有色板块回调，海外锌矿复产，锌精矿加工费继续上移，锌震荡回落，前期高位空 单继续持有，部分可止盈落袋，中长期看， ...

一、事件直击：金价"火箭式"上涨，网友直呼"买不起" "昨天还在犹豫，今天直接贵了800块！"4月1日，国内黄金市场迎来"地震级"波动——周大福、周六福等头部品牌金饰价格一夜跳涨17元/克，突破953元/ 克，创历史新高。以50克金镯为例，年初至今购买成本激增超7400元，网友调侃："黄金自由"比"车厘子自由"还难。 国际金价同样疯狂：伦敦金现价突破3147美元/盎司，COMEX黄金期货站上3176美元，双双刷新纪录。一季度国际金价累计涨幅超18%，创下近40年最大季 度涨幅。 二、暴涨背后：三大推手"点燃"黄金牛市 避险情绪"火上浇油" 长沙刘女士2月买入积存金，持仓收益率已达7.64%；但也有投资者因高位追涨被套，银行紧急提示"警惕回调风险"。 消费者：从"观望"到"绝望" 美国对等关税政策临近（4月2日生效）、地缘冲突频发，全球资金涌入黄金"避风港"。高盛报告指出，若极端风险爆发，金价或冲上4200美元/盎司。 央行"囤金"成底层支撑 2024年全球央行购金量达4974吨，创历史新高。俄罗斯外汇储备被冻结后，各国加速"去美元化"，中国、印度等亚洲央行持续增持，为金价提供长期动力。 美联储降息预期发酵 美 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - President Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs on April 2, affecting all countries, which is raising risk aversion and pushing gold prices higher [1] - The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with officials indicating the need for confidence in declining inflation before making decisions [1] - Technical analysis shows a strong upward trend in gold prices, with a focus on the support level around $3110 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Geopolitical uncertainties, including the US-Russia tensions over Ukraine and threats from Iran, are increasing risks to oil supply, which is supportive of oil prices [2] - China's March manufacturing PMI data at 50.5, slightly better than the previous value, is expected to improve oil demand [2] - Despite negative fundamental factors, geopolitical tensions and improved manufacturing data are expected to provide marginal support for oil prices [2] - Technical indicators show a strong upward trend in oil prices, with a focus on the support level around $70 [2] Group 3: Nikkei 225 and Copper Market - The Nikkei 225 index has shown a weak trend with multiple days of decline, indicating bearish sentiment [3] - Copper prices are testing the 20-day moving average support, with potential for further gains if it stabilizes [3] - Technical analysis indicates a risk of weakness in copper prices, with attention on the resistance level around $5.09 [3]

Economic Recovery - In January-February, the revenue of industrial enterprises increased by 2.8% year-on-year, up by 0.7 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024[4] - The profits of industrial enterprises decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, but this is an improvement of 3 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024[4] - The manufacturing PMI for March was 50.5, a rise of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking a nearly one-year high[6] Trade and Tariff Impact - The ongoing increase in U.S. tariffs has extended the "export rush" effect, supporting inventory replenishment and order increases for enterprises[2] - The upcoming U.S. tariff investigation results are expected to significantly impact global trade order and suppress market risk appetite[11] - The U.S. economy continues to weaken, with the Markit manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.8 in March, indicating a contraction[18] Market Trends - The equity market has seen a shift in style, with technology stocks experiencing notable adjustments and a reduction in trading volume, indicating a convergence of market divergence[2] - Risk appetite in the market is declining, with gold prices expected to remain high due to geopolitical uncertainties and economic cooling in the U.S.[22] - The performance of dividend and consumer sectors has been relatively strong as investors seek opportunities outside of technology stocks[11]