【实时热点】 2025 年 7 月 21 日星期一 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 究 报 告 特朗普签署稳定币法案 美联储理事沃勒继续发出 7 月降息的呼吁 美国 7 月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值 61.8，创五个月新 高 日本执政联盟丧失参议院过半数议席 日本 6 月核心 CPI 同比回落至 3.3% 伦敦证券交易所集团考虑推出 24 小时交易 我国消费市场规模稳居全球第二 娃哈哈宗氏财产纠纷案定于 8 月 1 日在香港高等法院聆讯 饿了么、美团、京东被约谈 加密货币交易所 Bullish 申请美国 IPO 2 年期美债收益率跌 3.32 个基点报 3.8628% 5 年期美债收益率跌 4.92 个基点报 3.9395% 10 年期美债收益率跌 3.98 个基点报 4.4095% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 波罗的海干散货 | 2052 ...

智通财经7月21日电，中国平安在互动平台表示，公司留意到香港市场稳定币相关的行业监管变化。平 安在区块链技术上有深厚的积累，我们保持高度关注并积极研究。 中国平安：积极研究香港市场稳定币相关行业监管变化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing challenges and potential shifts in the international monetary system, particularly focusing on the decline of the US dollar and the implications of stablecoins in this context [3][4][5]. Group 1: Current Monetary System Challenges - Since early 2025, the narrative of "American exceptionalism" has been challenged, leading to a 12.5% decline in the US dollar index [3]. - Following the "reciprocal tariffs" impact in April, the US financial markets experienced simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currency [3]. - The "Triffin Dilemma," which highlights the inherent instability of a unipolar international monetary system, is relevant to understanding the current situation [4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Theoretical Framework - The article references historical instances, such as the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the UK's currency crisis in 1931, to illustrate the recurring nature of these monetary challenges [4]. - The discussion emphasizes that the current issues with the dollar system are not isolated but are part of a broader historical pattern of monetary instability [4]. Group 3: Role of Stablecoins - The article raises questions about the nature and functions of stablecoins, exploring their potential roles in the monetary system and their relationship with the US dollar [5]. - It suggests that discussions around stablecoins should return to fundamental questions about the essence and functions of money [5]. Group 4: Political and Economic Interconnections - The relationship between alliance politics, monetary relations, and strategy is highlighted, indicating that the dollar and gold issues are deeply intertwined with broader political concerns, such as US-NATO relations [6]. - The article stresses the importance of understanding economic policies in conjunction with strategic and foreign policy issues, particularly in the context of a chaotic international monetary system [6].

Group 1: Company Overview - Circle, a leading stablecoin issuer, officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange on June 5, 2025, with an initial price of $31 per share [1] - The stock price surged to a historical high of $299 within just 12 trading days, reflecting strong growth momentum [1] - As of July 18, Circle's stock closed at $223.78, representing a significant increase of 622% from the issuance price, with a total market capitalization nearing $50 billion [1] Group 2: Stablecoin Characteristics - Stablecoins are a form of cryptocurrency that is strictly pegged to fiat currencies, serving as a direct representation of fiat in the digital realm [2] - They can be likened to American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) in several dimensions, including the issuance of asset ownership certificates and a dual intermediary structure [2][3] - The legal framework for stablecoins has been clarified with the passage of the "Genius Act," which defines stablecoins as a "payment tool" rather than a security, commodity, or investment product [3] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The "Genius Act" provides a solid foundation for the legal use of stablecoins in the U.S., distinguishing them from securities and establishing their application scope [3] - In contrast, the "Anti-CBDC Act" prohibits the issuance of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) in the U.S., highlighting a significant regulatory divergence from China's proactive promotion of the digital yuan [3]

Group 1 - The market experienced fluctuations with a total trading volume of 1.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 31.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with mixed performance among individual stocks [1] - Key sectors showing gains included rare earth permanent magnets, lithium mining, non-ferrous metals, and coal, while gaming, photovoltaics, CPO, and consumer electronics sectors faced declines [1] - CITIC Securities highlighted continuous catalysts in the AI computing power sector, with companies like Meta investing billions in data centers and OpenAI launching a general AI agent in ChatGPT [1] Group 2 - The announcement of the construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower super project is seen as a positive development for the hydropower sector [2] - The civil explosives industry is expected to see a significant increase in concentration, with production value projected to grow from 27.3 billion yuan in 2015 to 41.7 billion yuan in 2024, averaging a 5% annual growth [2] - The domestic market indices, driven by heavyweight stocks, returned to the 3,500-point mark, with the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices nearing previous highs, indicating potential short-term technical adjustments [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market will gradually increase, which is beneficial to reducing stock market volatility. In the medium - to long - term, A - shares are considered to have a high investment cost - performance ratio. Specifically, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are expected to bring higher returns due to more science and innovation policy support, while SSE 50 and CSI 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts for different terms increased, with the increase ranging from 22.20 to 36.40. The trading volume of IF next - quarter contracts was the highest at 59,958.00, and the position of IF current - month contracts decreased by 23,303.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The prices of IH contracts also rose, with an increase of 17.80 - 28.80. The trading volume of IH next - quarter contracts was 35,272.00, and the position of IH current - month contracts decreased by 12,236.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The prices of IC contracts increased, with an increase of 8.60 - 28.80. The trading volume of IC next - quarter contracts was 41,183.00, and the position of IC current - month contracts decreased by 19,812.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The prices of IM contracts went up, with an increase of 9.60 - 32.00. The trading volume of IM next - quarter contracts was 104,691.00, and the position of IM current - month contracts decreased by 28,897.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all changed compared to the previous values [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes all rose, with the SSE 50 having the highest increase of 0.74%. The trading volume and total trading amount of each index also changed [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among the CSI 300 industry indexes, the raw materials industry had the highest increase of 2.73%, while the information technology industry decreased by 0.33% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The futures - spot basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for different terms changed compared to the previous two days' values [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.50% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.33%, while the Nikkei 225, S&P, and DAX Indexes all decreased [1] 3.5 Macro Information - 16 central enterprises signed 75 industrial project investment agreements with the Tibet Autonomous Region, with a total investment of 317.537 billion yuan, focusing on key areas such as clean energy and infrastructure [2] - In the first half of 2025, the main economic indicators in the industrial and information technology fields showed steady growth, and multiple policy measures will be taken to strengthen the industrial economy [2] - 9 provinces have released their H1 GDP data, with 4 provinces in central China outperforming the national average, and Hubei having the highest growth rate of 6.2% [2] - As of July 18, 1540 A - share listed companies disclosed their H1 2025 performance forecasts, with a pre - happy ratio of about 43.77%, and the performance was quite differentiated [2] 3.6 Industry Information - The 3rd China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo closed in Beijing, with over 1200 exhibitors and more than 210,000 on - site and online visitors, a 5% increase from the previous session, and over 6000 cooperation agreements and intentions signed [2] - In H1 2025, the Beijing real estate market showed an upward trend, but the market heat was uneven, with some high - quality properties having high sales and others having low sales [2] - Hong Kong will implement a stablecoin regulatory system on August 1, aiming to promote the digitalization of payment infrastructure and asset markets [2]

Group 1 - The three major indices continued to show strength, with the water conservancy and western infrastructure sectors leading the gains, while the fintech sector experienced a pullback [1] - The financial technology ETF Huaxia (516100) saw a decline of 1.37%, with mixed performance among its holdings; however, it has attracted a net subscription of 640 million over the past 20 days, reaching a total scale of 973 million, a record high since its inception [1] - The signing of the "GENIUS Act" by U.S. President Trump marks the formal establishment of a regulatory framework for digital stablecoins in the U.S., indicating a shift towards compliance and broader application in payment scenarios [1] Group 2 - The financial technology ETF Huaxia (516100) closely tracks the CSI Financial Technology Theme Index, which includes leading stocks in software development, internet finance, and the digital currency industry, with a stablecoin content of 23.43%, the highest among all market indices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is pushing for a regulatory framework for stablecoins, exemplified by the proposed "Genius Act," which aims to diminish the Federal Reserve's influence and establish a digital payment system independent of it [1][3][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The "Genius Act" defines stablecoins as "payment stablecoins," which must be pegged to a fixed currency value and require issuers to hold compliant reserves equivalent to the amount of stablecoins issued [1]. - Issuers of stablecoins are obligated to redeem or repurchase at a fixed amount, ensuring that stablecoins function as digital tokens of legal tender [1]. Group 2: Comparison with China - The U.S. approach contrasts with China's strategy, which integrates the government, central bank, fiat currency, and stablecoins into a unified system, while the U.S. seeks to marginalize the Federal Reserve and empower the government [3]. - The U.S. aims to create a digital payment system that is not constrained by the Federal Reserve, reflecting a significant shift in power dynamics between the government and the central bank [3]. Group 3: Implications for Dollar Dominance - The initiative is perceived as an attempt to accelerate the digitization of the dollar and reinforce its dominance in the global payment system [2]. - Experts express concerns that this move could help the U.S. secure a leading position in the digital payment landscape, although there are counterarguments suggesting that it will not alter the fundamental dynamics of dollar hegemony [3].

Core Insights - The strategic partnership between Fourth Paradigm and Jiuyang Technology aims to develop a "Stablecoin Underlying Asset Management Solution" to enhance the stability and compliance of stablecoin investments [1][2] - The collaboration is a response to the growing regulatory framework surrounding stablecoins, particularly following the implementation of Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation [2][12] Group 1: Partnership Overview - Fourth Paradigm leverages its AI capabilities and extensive experience in serving top financial institutions to support stablecoin asset management [3][12] - Jiuyang Technology specializes in fixed income portfolio management and risk control, providing a robust foundation for the partnership [3][12] Group 2: Solution Features - The solution includes intelligent risk warning systems that utilize AI to monitor market signals and predict potential risks [3][5] - Dynamic optimization of collateral assets is achieved through AI algorithms, enhancing capital efficiency and risk resilience [3][7] - A compliance and risk monitoring engine is established to improve regulatory transparency and investor trust [5][9] Group 3: Market Context - The stablecoin market is transitioning towards compliance and institutional development, necessitating effective asset management solutions [2][6] - The partnership addresses the critical need for a secure asset management framework that mitigates risks associated with market volatility and fraud [2][6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The collaboration aims to create a closed-loop operational mechanism encompassing asset allocation, risk warning, and compliance verification [5][10] - Short-term goals include launching an integrated SaaS solution for compliance and portfolio management to facilitate regulatory sandbox projects [11] - Long-term aspirations involve building a national-level stablecoin technology infrastructure to support cross-border digital currency interoperability [11][12]

Group 1 - The Guozheng Securities Leading Index (399437) has seen a strong increase of 1.58%, with constituent stocks such as Hualin Securities (002945) rising by 9.97%, Dongfang Securities (600958) by 4.26%, and GF Securities (000776) by 3.98% [1] - Robinhood has launched "stock tokens" in the European market, allowing EU users to trade over 200 US stocks and ETFs, including Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), and Microsoft (MSFT) [1] - Minsheng Securities highlights that cross-border payment scenarios are expected to become an important application for stablecoins, which may enhance efficiency and reduce costs in cross-border payments, benefiting fintech companies related to cross-border payments [1] Group 2 - In the long term, stablecoins are anticipated to promote virtual asset trading and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) and security token offerings (STO), facilitating on-chain trading of traditional financial assets [2] - Major Chinese securities firms are accelerating their layout in this area, with Guotai Junan International upgrading its virtual asset trading license and GF Securities (Hong Kong) fully integrating with HashKey Chain for on-chain issuance [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Securities Leading Index (399437) account for 78.71% of the index, including Dongfang Wealth (300059), CITIC Securities (600030), and Huatai Securities (601688) [2]