Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - The overall market is in a complex state with various factors influencing different commodities. Geopolitical risks, economic data, supply - demand dynamics, and policy expectations are key drivers. Some commodities are expected to be in a state of high - level or low - level oscillation, while others are at a turning point in their supply - demand relationship [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices are in a relative steady state due to the game between post - peak season supply - demand and short - term geopolitical risks. Further upward space is limited without a clear escalation of geopolitical events [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures are under pressure, but the fundamentals are relatively bullish as the inventory pressure is relieved. High - sulfur resources are supported by geopolitical premiums [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The international market rebounds, and the domestic market is in a repair phase. There is long - term overseas production increase pressure, leading to a near - strong and far - weak pattern in the futures market [24]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures show resistance to decline, with potential demand and low inventory providing support [23]. Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are oscillating strongly. Once the key resistance is broken, the upward trend may be sustainable. Attention should be paid to the US PCE data [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The copper price rises, but the integer - level resistance is strong. High - level short positions can be held [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum is oscillating, with the upper resistance at 21,000 yuan. The casting aluminum alloy follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum, and the alumina is weakly oscillating [5][6][7]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market has a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. A short - term rebound is possible, but the medium - term strategy is to short on rebounds [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel price has a rebound intention, but the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking signs [10]. - **Tin**: The tin price continues to rise. The previous long positions can be held [11]. - **Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron**: Both are oscillating upward with weak rebound strength. The manganese silicon may see inventory accumulation in the long run, and the silicon iron follows the trend of manganese silicon [19][20]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level as the supply - demand relationship weakens marginally [16]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both show price rebounds. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the prices are greatly affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations [17][18]. Chemical Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price is回调, and the market is in a state of relatively strong oscillation [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures are in an oscillating pattern, with limited upward space and high risk of shorting at the lower end of the range [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures are oscillating, affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment of other varieties [14]. - **Urea**: The urea spot trading improves, but there is high supply - demand pressure [25]. - **Methanol**: The near - month methanol contract is weak, with high inventory in ports and increasing supply inland [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene market is in a weak balance, with expectations of improvement in the third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The PVC may oscillate weakly, and the caustic soda is expected to face pressure at high levels [28]. - **PX and PTA**: The PX is in a range - bound oscillation, and the PTA continues to weaken [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate within a range, and the upward drive is weakening [30]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: The short - fiber may be considered for long - position allocation if the demand improves, and the bottle - chip industry has long - term over - capacity pressure [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Grains and Oils**: - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The market may oscillate in the short term and is cautiously bullish in the medium - to - long term [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: They can be considered for buying at low prices in the medium - to - long term, with attention to soybean policies in the short term [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The futures prices have a narrow short - term fluctuation range, and it is advisable to wait and see [36]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom, with a possible short - term rebound [38]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Pork**: The pork futures are likely to continue the weak downward trend in the medium term [39]. - **Eggs**: The egg price cycle may turn around in the second half of this year, and it is advisable to consider long positions in the first half of next year's futures contracts [40]. - **Cotton and Sugar**: - **Cotton**: The international cotton market is oscillating, and the domestic cotton can be bought on dips [41]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is expected to oscillate, with the international market having supply pressure and the domestic market having limited bullish factors [42]. - **Fruits and Wood Products**: - **Apple**: The apple price may continue to rise in the short term but lacks long - term supply - side support [43]. - **Wood**: The wood futures are oscillating, and it is advisable to wait and see [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures can be treated with a wait - and - see or range - bound oscillation strategy [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market rebounds, and it is advisable to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors while also paying attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures fall, and the yield curve may become steeper [47].

与此同时，特朗普的政治火力转向了金融巨头索罗斯。8月27日，他在社交媒体发文，直指索罗斯及其儿子"因支持暴力抗议等行为，应当依据RICO法受到 起诉"。RICO法原本用于打击黑帮和有组织犯罪，如今却被特朗普用来攻击一位在政治捐赠和慈善事业中影响巨大的投资人。值得注意的是，特朗普并未拿 出具体证据支持指控。 8月25日，当地时间，美国总统特朗普在其个人社交媒体平台上发表了一封措辞强硬的公开信，致信美联储理事丽莎·库克，宣布即刻解除她的职务。这一决 定震动了华盛顿政坛，也在国际金融界引发巨大反响。仅仅两天后的8月27日，特朗普又将矛头转向95岁高龄的金融大鳄乔治·索罗斯，公开指控其资助全国 范围内的"暴力抗议"，并呼吁依据反敲诈勒索法（RICO法）对索罗斯及其儿子提起诉讼。这种连续动作，被认为是特朗普在金融与政治双重领域发起的一 场前所未有的攻势。 在致库克的公开信中，特朗普写道："依据美国宪法第二条以及经修订的1913年《联邦储备法》赋予总统的权力，你被免去联邦储备委员会理事一职，立即 生效。"这是美国历史上罕见的一幕，因为美联储理事的独立性一直受到法律和制度保障。丽莎·库克不仅是美联储首位非洲裔女性理事，她的 ...

美联储理事库克在房产申报争议和特朗普解职诉讼中面临多项指控。 就在美联储理事库克诉美国总统特朗普的首场听证会召开前夕，前者再陷房产申报争议。 当地时间8月28日，美国联邦住房金融署署长普尔特（Bill Pulte）在社交媒体上发文称，库克在担任美 联储理事期间，在第三处房产贷款和政府申报中存在虚假陈述。 稍早前，库克已就特朗普将其解职一事向华盛顿特区联邦法院正式提起诉讼，并申请初步禁令，允许其 在案件审理期间继续履行美联储理事职责。 库克称，特朗普对其罢免的举动"非法"，且是对美联储独立性的极大攻击。 库克在诉状中称，特朗普此举的真正原因是"为了迅速罢免她，腾出一个（美联储理事）席位，并推进 他的议程，以破坏美联储的独立性。" 该案首场听证会将于当地时间29日上午10点举行。 第三起房产虚假申报？ 根据普尔特向美国司法部部长帕姆·邦迪递交的第二封刑事转介函，库克于2021年4月7日为其位于马萨 诸塞州剑桥市的公寓办理了一笔15年期抵押贷款，并将其申报为"第二居所"。 然而，仅8个月后，库克在向美国政府提交的一份道德规范表格中，却将该处房产列为"投资/出租房 产"，并申报了1.5万至5万美元的租金收入。在此后2 ...

最近一段时间，随着美国总统特朗普试图重塑美联储，市场专家纷纷警告称，美联储独立性受到威胁可 能会给金融市场带来严重的后果。 然而，对于特朗普宣布解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克一事——这是美联储112年历史上首次遭遇此类事件， 美股市场却泰然处之，不仅没有大幅下跌，反而在过去几天多次创下新高。 当地时间8月25日，特朗普在社交平台上发表了一封致美联储理事库克的信件，宣布解除库克的职务， 即刻生效。特朗普表示，他解雇库克是因为后者涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈。 不过，库克对此回应称，特朗普无权解雇她，她将继续履行职责。当地时间周四，库克正式对特朗普提 起诉讼，试图阻止后者的解职举动，这场法律战很有可能最终将上诉至最高法院。 特朗普几个月来一直指责美联储及其主席鲍威尔拒绝听从他降低利率的呼吁。分析认为，解雇库克标志 着特朗普与美联储之间的斗争升级，旨在对美联储施加更多的控制。 美联储的货币政策决策部门是联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）。FOMC 由12名委员组成，包括7名联邦 储备系统理事、纽约联储主席，以及4名地方联储主席（由除纽约联储外的11个地区联储的主席按年度 轮换）。 一旦成功罢免库克，特朗普就有机会在美联储理事会安插更多" ...

Core Viewpoint - The Republican-led Senate is likely to confirm Stephen Miran's nomination to the Federal Reserve before the September FOMC meeting, barring procedural issues or unexpected opposition [1][2] Group 1: Nomination Process - The Senate Banking Committee has scheduled a hearing for Miran's nomination on September 4 at 10 AM ET [1] - Democrats privately acknowledge their inability to block Miran's nomination, as they can only delay the process briefly in committee and for a few days during the full Senate vote [1] - Miran was previously confirmed as the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers with a vote of 53 to 46, facing no opposition from Republicans [1] Group 2: Political Context - Miran is expected to face tough questioning regarding Trump's actions to dismiss Fed officials and pressure the Fed to lower interest rates [1][2] - The nomination highlights the ongoing impact of the Trump administration on the independence of the Federal Reserve, with attempts to install aligned officials [2] - The market reaction to Miran's nomination has been relatively calm, but economists warn that perceived political pressure on the Fed could harm its global credibility [2] Group 3: Economic Implications - If confirmed, Miran may support a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, with the market currently pricing in an 87% probability of this outcome [2] - The potential for increased political intervention in the Fed's operations could lead to higher long-term Treasury yields, as investors may demand a "political risk premium" [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the upward revision of US economic resilience, the impact on the Fed's independence, and the continuous fermentation of interest - rate cut expectations dominate the market. The US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is revised up to 3.3%. Gold has reached 3400 points, and copper and oil prices have closed higher. Domestically, the A - share market reversed and rose on Thursday, and the bond market has yet to form a clear repair momentum [2][3]. - Precious metals are expected to challenge previous highs. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Alumina is under pressure and fluctuating. Zinc prices are in a volatile consolidation. Lead prices are difficult to break out of the current shock pattern. Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Nickel prices are driven by macro - expectations to fluctuate. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and may decline in the long term. Steel prices are in a volatile trend. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile and strong. Bean and rapeseed meal may fluctuate within a range. Palm oil may decline and adjust [4][6][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][17][19][20][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is revised up to 3.3%, with strong business investment and net exports contributing nearly 5%. The Fed's independence faces a legal test. The dollar index has fallen to 97.9, and gold has reached 3400 points. Attention is paid to the US July PCE data tonight [2] - Domestic: The A - share market reversed and rose on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing firm at 3800 points. The bond market has yet to form a clear repair momentum. The "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" is released [3] Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices rose on Thursday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.82% to $3476.9 per ounce. Concerns about the Fed's independence, inflation data, and interest - rate cut expectations support the rise of precious metals. They are expected to challenge previous highs, and attention is paid to the PCE data tonight [4][5] Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,750 yuan/ton, down 0.48%. The downstream replenishment has slightly increased, but the aluminum ingot social inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to fluctuate [6][7] Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3,063 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The supply is in a relatively loose pattern, and the alumina price is under pressure and fluctuating [8] Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated. The downstream purchasing sentiment improved, and the social inventory increased. The short - term long and short factors are intertwined, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [9][10] Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated. The social inventory decreased slightly, but the consumption improvement is limited, and the export expectation is weakened. The lead price is difficult to break out of the current shock pattern [11] Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated. Overseas low inventory and slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar support the tin price. It is expected to remain high and volatile, and attention is paid to the pressure at previous highs [12] Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, lithium carbonate fluctuated, and the spot price weakened. The resource risk game continues, and the lithium price is expected to continue to fluctuate [13][14] Nickel - On Thursday, nickel prices fluctuated strongly. The macro - level dovish expectations continue, and the spot market has both positive and negative factors. The short - term fundamentals have no guidance, and the nickel price fluctuates under the influence of macro - expectations [15] Crude Oil - On Thursday, crude oil fluctuated. The market focuses on the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and Trump's sanctions. The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate, and there is a downward expectation in the long term [16] Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures rose and then fell. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a work plan to continue the production reduction policy. The steel price is in a volatile trend [17][18] Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures rebounded. The supply is stable, and the demand has decreased. The post - parade replenishment expectation supports the price, and the iron ore price is expected to be volatile and strong [19] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the bean and rapeseed meal contracts fell. The new - crop export sales are 1.37 million tons. The US soybean production area has less precipitation, and the short - term bean meal may fluctuate within a range [20][21] Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil contract fell. The external oil market weakened, and the domestic oil is under pressure. The short - term palm oil may decline and adjust [22][23]

Group 1 - The US dollar is expected to decline by approximately 2% against major currencies in August due to market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, with the dollar index currently at 97.917 and a year-to-date decline of nearly 10% [1] - President Trump has increased his influence over the Federal Reserve, including attempts to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who has filed a lawsuit claiming the president lacks the authority to dismiss her, raising concerns about the Fed's policy independence [1][3] - The yield on short-term US Treasury bonds is being suppressed by rate cut expectations, while long-term yields are rising due to inflation concerns and policy risks, resulting in a steepening of the yield curve with a 57 basis point spread between 2-year and 10-year bonds, the steepest since April [3] Group 2 - Market participants are adopting a pragmatic approach regarding the risks to the Fed's independence, choosing to remain cautious in the short term [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 86%, up from 63% a month ago, with investors betting on cumulative cuts exceeding 100 basis points by mid-2025 [3] - The upcoming PCE price index is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with a reading above 3% potentially intensifying doubts about a shift in Fed policy [4]

周四(8月28日)亚洲时段，白银价格从38.08美元的低点反弹后回升，银价震荡上涨，欧市盘中，现货白 银行情延续上行，现报38.86美元/盎司，最高触及38.93美元/盎司，最低下探38.52美元/盎司。银价正逼 近38.90美元/盎司水平。今晚关注即将发布的美国至8月23日当周初请失业金人数。 【要闻聚焦】 纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰 威廉姆斯于周三强调了央行独立性的重要性。此前，美国总统特朗普正试 图对货币政策施加管控。 在接受采访时，这位颇具影响力的政策制定者未直接评论特朗普拟解雇美联储理事莉萨 库克的相关举 措，但明确指出了美联储在维护经济稳定方面所发挥的重要经济作用。 "就我个人而言，我曾与莉萨 库克共事——她目前是美联储理事会成员，在工作中始终秉持诚信，致力 于实现美联储的使命，"威廉姆斯表示，"我认为美联储作为央行，其独立性至关重要……历史经验表 明，具备独立性的央行能够实现低通胀，维护经济与金融稳定。" 在特朗普第二任期的第一年，他多次打破传统界限——长期以来，这一界限一直存在于准政府机构属性 的美联储与白宫、国会山的影响力之间。 特朗普曾指责美联储主席鲍威尔及其同僚未采取降息措施。此前，他还曾 ...

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat, and the worsening U.S. budget deficit is creating structural pressures on the dollar [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining the value of the currency [1] - Concerns have arisen in the market due to President Trump's intention to dismiss Fed Governor Cook [1] Group 2: U.S. Budget Deficit - The U.S. faces challenges regarding the sustainability of its debt [1] - Trump's tax and spending proposals may ultimately be more expensive than currently planned, as historical trends show that tax incentives are difficult to revoke [1] Group 3: Dollar Value and Market Resistance - Structural issues may weaken the long-term value of the dollar and increase structural resistance [1] - Short-term resistance for the dollar index is noted at 98.10-98.15, with significant resistance at 98.40-98.45 [1] - Short-term support for the dollar index is identified at 97.60-97.65, with significant support at 97.45-97.50 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to a weakening dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets, driven by investor concerns over President Trump's attempts to challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On August 28, gold prices reached a five-week high, closing at $3417.07 per ounce, marking a 0.60% increase [2]. - Gold prices have been on an upward trend for three consecutive trading days, with a peak at $3420 [2]. - The gold price has broken through the significant resistance level of $3400, indicating potential for further upward movement [1][2]. Group 2: Market Influences - The dollar index fell by 0.3%, making gold more attractive to overseas buyers [2]. - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified, particularly due to pressure from President Trump, which may lead to expectations of quicker interest rate cuts [2][3]. - The market anticipates over an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming September meeting [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Current support levels for gold are identified at $3399 and $3408, with resistance at $3423 [3]. - Analysts suggest that if gold effectively breaks above the trend line, it could target levels around $3430-50 [3]. - The market is advised to be cautious due to the potential for significant price movements coinciding with the end of the month and week [3].