Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Long-term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, suggesting holding [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Suggesting range trading; bearish on near-term glass contracts [1][8] - Non-ferrous Metals: Suggesting moderately holding long positions at low levels for copper; buying on dips for aluminum; suggesting range trading for nickel and tin; buying on dips for silver and gold after price corrections [1][10] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC is expected to oscillate weakly; soda ash suggests a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage strategy; other products are mostly expected to oscillate [1][19] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate strongly; apples and jujubes are expected to oscillate [1][34] - Agricultural and Livestock: Bearish on pigs and eggs when prices are high; corn is expected to oscillate within a range; soybean meal is expected to have limited upside; oils are expected to oscillate at high levels [1][38] Core Views - The global stock market has shown a synchronized upward trend after the tariff conflict, mainly due to the global pricing of interest rate cut expectations and the recovery of manufacturing prosperity. The A-share market is expected to enter an upward trend, with the realization of profit improvement expectations as the main driver in the next stage [5] - The bond market shows a stock-bond seesaw effect. Although the bond market is under pressure from the strong performance of the equity market, there is still room for the central bank to increase its holdings of treasury bonds, and the market expects a bond market recovery [5][6] - The prices of black building materials such as coking coal, steel, and glass are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and safety inspections, and are expected to maintain an oscillating or weakening trend in the short term [7][8] - The prices of non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are influenced by factors such as global central bank policies, supply and demand, and inventory. Some metals are expected to have upward potential in the future [10][11] - The prices of energy and chemical products such as PVC, caustic soda, and styrene are affected by factors such as cost, supply and demand, and macro policies, and are expected to oscillate in the short term [19][22] - The prices of agricultural products such as cotton, apples, and jujubes are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies, and are expected to oscillate or show a strong oscillating trend [34][35] - The prices of agricultural and livestock products such as pigs, eggs, and corn are affected by factors such as supply and demand, production capacity, and consumption seasons, and are expected to show different trends in the short and long term [38][40] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - Stock Indices: On Tuesday, the market oscillated and adjusted, with the three major indices showing different trends. The trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan for 10 consecutive days. The market is expected to enter an upward trend, and investors should maintain positions, choose opportunities, and make appropriate internal high-low switches [5] - Treasury Bonds: On Tuesday, the bond market showed a stock-bond seesaw effect. Although the bond market was under pressure from the equity market, the news that the central bank has room to increase its holdings of treasury bonds boosted the bond market. The bond market is expected to recover [5][6] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: On August 25, coal prices continued to decline, with the sales atmosphere being cold and the decline slightly increasing. The downstream market has a low willingness to purchase, and safety inspections continue to be upgraded. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [7] - Steel: On Tuesday, steel futures prices were weak. The supply and demand in the real economy have weakened, but the off-season is coming to an end. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [8] - Glass: On August 26, glass futures declined. High inventory is the main factor suppressing prices. The near-term contract is expected to decline slightly, while the long-term contract can be observed for signs of stabilization [8] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: After the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, Powell's dovish remarks boosted copper prices. The domestic market demand has increased, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with a suggested strategy of moderately holding long positions at low levels [10] - Aluminum: The price of bauxite in Guinea has increased, and the production and transportation have been affected by the rainy season. The domestic downstream demand is expected to enter the peak season, and the inventory has shown marginal improvement. It is recommended to buy on dips [11] - Nickel: The price of nickel ore is expected to remain stable, and the refined nickel market is in a surplus situation. The price of nickel iron is stable, and the price of stainless steel has declined. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium and long term [14][15] - Tin: The domestic refined tin production has increased, and the import of tin concentrate has decreased. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand in the consumer electronics and photovoltaic sectors is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading [15] - Silver and Gold: Powell's dovish remarks at the central bank summit have increased the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in September. The trade negotiation results have been announced, and the market is optimistic about the signing of a trade agreement between Europe and the United States. It is recommended to buy on dips after price corrections [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is affected by the real estate market and exports. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy and cost disturbances [19][20] - Caustic Soda: The spot price increase has slowed down, and there is a short-term callback due to warehouse receipt factors. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking and export conditions [22] - Styrene: The cost is under pressure, the supply and demand are expected to be weak, and the macro policy is favorable. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as oil prices and pure benzene supply [24] - Rubber: The fundamentals of natural rubber have changed little, and the inventory has decreased. The tire companies' willingness to purchase high-priced raw materials has decreased. It is expected to oscillate within a range [25][26] - Urea: The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is scattered, the compound fertilizer inventory is high, and the enterprise inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected to be weak first and then strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price support level [28] - Methanol: The supply has increased slightly, the demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry is stable, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is expected to oscillate due to the influence of industrial product prices [29][30] - Polyolefins: The cost is supported by coal-based olefins, the supply of polyethylene has decreased due to maintenance, the downstream demand has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the L contract is expected to have stronger support [30][31] - Soda Ash: The spot market is still sluggish, and the 09 contract faces delivery pressure. The supply is still at a high level, and the downstream demand has improved slightly. It is recommended to implement a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage strategy [33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply and demand situation has improved, the macro environment has become better, and the peak season is approaching. The cotton price is expected to be strong [34][35] - Apples: The early-maturing apples are on the market, with the quality and price varying. The inventory of Fuji apples is stable and light. It is expected to maintain a high-level oscillating trend based on low inventory and growth factors [35] - Jujubes: The jujube trees are in the fruit expansion period, and the weather may affect the quality. The market price is expected to oscillate upward in the near term [37] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The market has a bullish expectation for the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, but the spot performance is disappointing. The supply is large, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to take a short position on the 11 and 01 contracts and consider a long 05 and short 03 arbitrage strategy [38][40] - Eggs: The current main contract has a large premium. The spot price may rebound slightly, and it is recommended to short when the price rebounds. In the medium and long term, the supply is expected to remain high, and attention should be paid to factors such as chicken culling and cold storage eggs [40][42] - Corn: The new corn is about to be listed, and the supply is expected to increase. The cost has decreased, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds or implement a 11-1 reverse arbitrage strategy [42][44] - Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean arrival volume is sufficient from September to October, and the price is under pressure from state reserves. However, the cost provides support, and it is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [44][45] - Oils: The prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and policies. They are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips or implement a rolling long strategy. Attention should be paid to the palm oil 1-5 spread arbitrage opportunity [46][51]

芦哲、张佳炜（芦哲系东吴证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛成员） 核心观点 核心观点：特朗普以涉嫌在抵押贷款申请中存在欺诈行为为由罢免美联储理事库克，成为1913年美联储成立以来首次。当前美联储理事会中沃勒和鲍曼2 位理事均由特朗普提名，未来若特朗普提名的新理事米兰能够获得参议院批准，且在成功罢免库克后再提名另一位新理事，则理事会中将有4人与特朗普 立场一致，超过半数。罢免消息公布后，市场对未来更多"特朗普派"的理事就职预期令明年的降息预期升温，而对美联储独立性和美元信用的担忧则令长 端美债利率和黄金价格上行，美元指数下行。向前看，由于罢免风波前景未明，对美联储独立性的担忧料将持续发酵，预计黄金价格将阶段性维持高位、 美债期限溢价走阔。 特朗普宣布罢免美联储理事库克，为历史首次。美东时间2025年8月25日，特朗普签署文件，以涉嫌在抵押贷款申请中存在欺诈行为，依据《联邦储备 法》正式罢免美联储理事库克（Lisa Cook）。本次行动为1913年美联储成立以来首次由总统直接罢免理事的案例，也是特朗普就任总统以来对美联储独 立性的最强力的一次直接干预。 法律进展：罢免理由仍存在争议，后续库克或上诉至最高法院。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent firing of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by President Trump has heightened political risk concerns and boosted market expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a surge in gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices rose to a two-week high, closing at $3,393.43 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.83% following the announcement [1]. - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.22%, and the yield curve for government bonds steepened, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have surged to over 87% [1]. Group 2: Catalysts for Gold Price Movement - The continuation of gold's upward trend in the short term depends on three key catalysts: the Federal Reserve's decision on rate cuts in September, upcoming GDP and PCE data confirming economic slowdown, and whether the dispute between Trump and the Fed escalates into a legal or political crisis [3]. - If the GDP and PCE data indicate economic weakness, it could further increase the likelihood of rate cuts, supporting gold prices [3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - If the independence of the Federal Reserve continues to be undermined, gold may enter a structural bull market, although concerns about inflation could lead to rising long-term interest rates [3]. - The current environment, characterized by suppressed short-term rates and political instability, is generally favorable for gold [3].

Group 1 - Gold futures maintained their upward trend, with the latest Shanghai gold futures at 781.98 yuan/gram, reflecting a 0.22% increase, driven by concerns over political risks and expectations for interest rate cuts following Trump's attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Cook [1][2] - The announcement of strong U.S. economic data put short-term pressure on gold prices, with July durable goods orders at -2.8%, better than the expected -4% and previous -9.4%, while the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for August was -7, above the expected -11 and previous -20 [2] - Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, citing alleged criminal activity in financial transactions, marks the first instance of a president firing a Fed governor, which significantly impacts the Fed's independence and could lead to a more dovish monetary policy if a new dovish governor is appointed [2] Group 2 - In the context of anticipated further easing of monetary policy by the Fed, silver prices are expected to rise more significantly than gold, leading to a downward correction in the gold-silver ratio [3] - The reference trading range for the Shanghai gold main contract is set between 770-794 yuan/gram, with resistance levels at 785-790 and support levels at 770-780 [3]

南华金属日报:金涨银震 美联储独立性面临挑战 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月27日 【行情回顾】 周二贵金属市场金涨银震，美指略微回调，美债收益率回落，欧股下跌美股上涨，比特币回升，原油明显下 跌，南华有色金属指数震荡。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报3443.2美元/盎司，+0.75%；美白银2509合约 收报于38.69美元/盎司，-0.02%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约收781.12元/克，+0.28%；SHFE白银2510合约 收9354元/千克，+0.11%。周二亚洲早盘，贵金属快速拉涨，因特朗普签署文件罢免美联储理事库克，且立 刻生效，升温美联储降息预期。据外媒报道，特朗普政府正在权衡影响地区联邦储备银行的方案，并加强对 地方联储主席选拔方式的审查，如果特朗普罢免美联储理事库克的决定在法庭上得到支持，那么美联储独立 性将面临进一步挑战，对贵金属特别是货币属性显著的黄金而言有望形成新利多，因货币宽松预期、通胀预 期及美元信誉下降预期等。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 年内降息预期略有升温。据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 27, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The pattern of strong external and weak internal markets continues. The external market is supported by interest - rate cut expectations and low inventories, making it prone to rise and difficult to fall. The internal market is driven by the external market and is unlikely to experience a significant decline. The Shanghai zinc will fluctuate within the middle - lower track of the Bollinger Bands [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc 2510 closed at 22,270 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan, a decrease of 0.38%. It showed a pattern of shrinking volume and increasing positions, with positions increasing by 3,459 to 108,718 hands. The 09 - 10 spread turned to B15. LME zinc stocks decreased by 2,550 tons to 65,525 tons, with a 0 - 3 spread of C2.95, an Shanghai - London ratio of 0.79, and an exchange - excluded ratio of 1.11. The loss of zinc ingot imports widened to - 1,825.37 yuan/ton, and the import window remained closed. In August, long - term contracts were the main form of imports [7]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The processing fee for imported zinc ore continued to rise, with the zinc concentrate index increasing by 2.2 dollars/dry ton to 92 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC remaining flat at 3,900 yuan/metal ton. The refinery operating rate remained at a high level, and with few domestic overhauls in August, the refined zinc output was expected to increase to 621,500 tons, keeping the supply side abundant. At the end of the off - season, downstream demand remained weak. Affected by the military parade, environmental protection became stricter, restricting production and transportation in North China. The operating rates of galvanizing and zinc oxide were expected to hover at low levels. Downstream purchasing sentiment was low, with the Shanghai market at a discount of 20 yuan to the 09 contract, the Tianjin market at a discount of 20 yuan to the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market at a discount of 65 yuan/ton to the 10 contract [7]. 2. Industry News - **Price and Quotation in Different Regions**: On August 26, 2025, in the Shanghai market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,255 - 22,340 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan zinc was between 22,355 - 22,430 yuan/ton. In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 22,245 - 22,310 yuan/ton. In the Tianjin market, the 0 zinc ingot was mainly traded between 22,220 - 22,320 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, the mainstream 0 zinc was traded between 22,210 - 22,310 yuan/ton, and the spread between Shanghai and Guangdong widened [8][9]. 3. Data Overview - **Data Charts**: The report includes charts such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, the SHFE monthly spread, the weekly inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources from Wind, SMM, and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Aluminum - The short - term market sentiment is cautiously optimistic due to improved macro - atmosphere and peak - season expectations. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and the implementation of macro - policies [1]. Alumina - The market is in an overall oversupply situation, and the spot price is under pressure. The short - term price is expected to have limited upside and downside, with the main contract reference range of 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy changes in Guinea and macro - sentiment fluctuations [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals are showing marginal improvement. The spot price is expected to remain relatively firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to converge. The main contract reference operating range is 20000 - 20600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply of scrap aluminum and changes in import policies and volumes [3]. Copper - The Fed's dovish stance boosts copper prices, but the upside is still restricted. The fundamentals are in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". The copper price is expected to at least remain volatile, and the main contract reference range is 78500 - 80500 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The supply is loose and the demand is weak. The zinc price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term due to improved interest - rate cut expectations. The main contract reference range is 22000 - 23000 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The market has digested the sentiment and returned to fundamental pricing. The short - term price is expected to be adjusted within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and import - export situations [10]. Stainless Steel - The cost support remains, but the fundamentals are restricted by weak spot demand. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 12600 - 13400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy directions and steel - mill dynamics [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The current fundamentals are in a tight balance. The supply contraction expectation is gradually being fulfilled, and the demand is steadily optimistic. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate around 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. Tin - Affected by the Fed's dovishness, the tin price has risen. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price is expected to remain high and volatile [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20780 yuan/ton, with no change. The spread between different months shows certain fluctuations, such as the 2509 - 2510 spread decreasing by 5 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - The operating rate of aluminum profiles remains unchanged at 50.5%, while the operating rates of aluminum cables, aluminum sheets, and aluminum foils have increased slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 0.1 tons to 47.9 tons, a decrease of 0.17% [1]. Alumina Price and Spread - The average prices of alumina in Shandong, Henan, and other regions have decreased slightly, with a decline of 0.16% - 0.31%. The import profit and loss is - 1354 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - The output in July was 765.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The static supply surplus is nearly 30,000 tons per day [1]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in different regions remain unchanged. The price difference between refined and scrap aluminum in Foshan has increased by 1.28% - 1.06% [3]. Fundamental Data - In July, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.63%, and the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.31%. The import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 10.59% [3]. Copper Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.24% to 79585 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss increased to 128 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the output of electrolytic copper increased by 3.47% to 117.43 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 1.20% to 29.69 million tons. The domestic social inventory decreased by 8.00% to 12.3 million tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.13% to 22280 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss decreased to - 1825 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In July, the output of refined zinc increased by 3.03% to 60.28 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 50.35% to 1.79 million tons. The domestic zinc ingot inventory increased by 2.29% to 13.85 million tons [8]. Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.16% to 121450 yuan/ton. The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowinning nickel decreased by 2.81% to 118531 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese refined nickel products decreased by 10.04% to 31800 tons, and the import volume increased by 116.90% to 19157 tons. The SHFE inventory increased by 2.93% to 26962 tons [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) remains unchanged at 13100 yuan/ton. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 0.64% to 937 yuan/nickel point [12]. Fundamental Data - The output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons. The net export volume increased by 22.37% to 34.32 million tons [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.97% to 81700 yuan/ton. The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remains unchanged [14]. Fundamental Data - In July, the output of lithium carbonate increased by 4.41% to 81530 tons, and the demand increased by 2.50% to 96100 tons. The total inventory decreased by 2.01% to 97846 tons [14]. Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 0.11% to 270000 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss increased by 9.17% to - 15229.07 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In July, the import volume of tin ore decreased by 13.71% to 10278 tons, and the output of SMM refined tin increased by 15.42% to 15940 tons. The SHEF inventory decreased by 3.86% to 7491 tons [17].

Group 1: Overall Market Sentiment - Market risk preference remained high this week despite weak domestic economic and financial data in July [1] Group 2: Copper - Downstream orders showed support around 7.8 this week, and the scrap-to-refined substitution effect continued to appear [1] - In August, under the full supply pattern, a small inventory build-up is expected, but the market may focus more on the tight balance pattern after the off-season [1] Group 3: Aluminum - Supply increased slightly from January to June, with aluminum ingot imports contributing to the growth [2] - August demand is expected to be a seasonal off-season, with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages [2] - Aluminum exports improved month-on-month, while photovoltaic demand declined, and overseas demand dropped significantly [2] - In August, a small inventory build-up is expected [2] Group 4: Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely [5] - On the supply side, domestic TC increased with difficulty, and some scattered orders even decreased, while imported TC further increased [5] - In August, the increase in smelting output was further realized, and the overseas mine output in the second quarter exceeded expectations [5] - On the demand side, domestic demand was seasonally weak, with limited growth but some resilience [5] - Overseas, European demand was average, but some smelters faced production resistance due to processing fees [5] - Domestically, social inventories fluctuated and increased, while overseas LME inventories decreased rapidly [5] - In the short term, zinc prices are expected to rebound supported by interest rate cut expectations and domestic commodity sentiment [5] - In the medium and long term, a short position is recommended [5] - For the domestic and overseas spread, a long domestic-short overseas position can be maintained [5] - For the monthly spread, a long near-month-short far-month position can be considered [5] Group 5: Nickel - On the supply side, pure nickel production remained at a high level [6] - On the demand side, overall demand was weak, and the premium remained stable recently [6] - On the inventory side, domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remained unchanged [6] - In the short term, the fundamental situation is average, and the macro situation is mainly about anti-involution policy games [6] - The opportunity to shrink the nickel-stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [6] Group 6: Stainless Steel - On the supply side, some steel mills cut production passively, and some in the north were affected by the military parade [7] - On the demand side, demand was mainly for rigid needs, and some replenishment increased due to the macro atmosphere [7] - In terms of costs, nickel iron and chromium iron prices remained stable [7] - In terms of inventory, inventories in Xijiao and Foshan decreased slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7] - Fundamentally, the situation remained weak, and in the short term, the macro situation followed anti-involution expectations [7] - Attention should be paid to the future policy direction [8] Group 7: Lead - This week, lead prices fluctuated [9] - On the supply side, the scrap volume was weak year-on-year, and the overall supply of waste batteries was tight due to the expansion of recycling plants [9] - Under low profits, recycled lead maintained low production, and demand had no obvious boost [9] - From April to July, the concentrate production increased, but the supply was in short supply due to smelting profits, and the TC quotation declined chaotically [9] - On the demand side, the battery finished product inventory was high, and the battery production rate increased this week, but the peak season was not prosperous [9] - The refined-scrap price difference was +25, and recycled lead shipments resisted price declines [9] - LME registered warehouse receipts increased by 10,000 tons [9] - In July and August, there were expectations of a peak season, and orders generally improved, but the destocking and lead ingot purchasing efforts of terminal consumers were weak this week [9] - This week, the willingness of downstream battery factories to receive goods rebounded, but the volume of receiving warehouse receipts was only in the thousands of tons, with limited strength [9] - The exchange inventory reached a historical high of 70,000 tons; when the price declined, recycled lead supported the price, and the refined-scrap price difference was +25 [9] - Lead ingot spot was at a discount of 25, mainly maintaining long-term orders [9] - In August, primary lead supply is expected to increase, recycled lead production will decrease, and demand will improve slightly, but it is still expected that the inventory will remain at a high level [9] - It is expected that lead prices will remain in a low-level fluctuation next week [9] Group 8: Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely [12] - On the supply side, the processing fee for tin ore was at a low level, and some domestic smelters cut production [12] - In early September, Yunnan smelters will start maintenance [12] - Overseas, the Wa State symposium released some signals of resuming production, but short-term recruitment difficulties and long equipment recovery cycles restricted large-scale exports before October [12] - African tin ore will have an increase in the long term, but the short-term increase is unstable [12] - There may be a risk of inspecting mine caves in Indonesia [12] - On the demand side, the elasticity of solder was limited, and there were expectations of a peak season for terminal electronic consumption, but the decline in photovoltaic growth was expected to be strong [12] - Domestic inventory decreased slightly in a fluctuating manner; overseas consumption was strong, and LME inventory was at a low level [12] - On the spot side, small-brand tin ingots were still in short supply, and most of the exchange inventory was high-priced Yunzi brand, and downstream had no strong willingness to pick up the goods [12] - Domestically, the short-term supply and demand situation remained weak, and attention should be paid to the possible short-term supply-demand mismatch from September to October and the impact of interest rate cut expectations on non-ferrous metals as a whole [12] - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the medium and long term, buy near the cost line [12] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - This week, the start-up rate of leading enterprises in Xinjiang was 67%, 32% in the west and 35% in the east, with a total increase of 8 units month-on-month, and the resumption of production was stable but still below market expectations [15] - The start-up rates in Sichuan and Yunnan increased slightly, and the monthly output was close to 120,000 tons [15] - In August, the supply-demand balance was still in a state of slight inventory reduction, and the core of the supply-demand balance was the rhythm and amplitude of Hoshine's resumption of production [15] - The unexpected production cut of leading enterprises had a significant marginal improvement effect on the supply-demand balance, and with the stable start-up of downstream silicone and polysilicon, the market's visible inventory decreased significantly [15] - The continuous high basis also led to the continuous cancellation of warehouse receipts [15] - In the short term, the resumption of production in the southwest and Hoshine continues to fall short of expectations, and the supply-demand balance in August is still slightly in short supply [15] - In the long term, the overcapacity of industrial silicon is still large, and the start-up rate is low [15] - Under the current cost curve structure, the potential start-up elasticity is high when the price reaches above 10,000 yuan, so the long-term outlook is still a cyclical bottom shock [15] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - This week, the futures market fluctuated greatly due to the expected start-up of salt lakes and mica mines [17] - On the spot side, the peak season effect was obvious, the proportion of downstream supply decreased, the volume of scattered orders increased during the week, and the enthusiasm for replenishing at low prices was high [17] - The inquiry atmosphere was active, and the trading volume increased significantly compared with last week [17] - Since the level of spot available inventory was still high, the basis remained basically stable as a whole [17] - The basis of spodumene lithium carbonate was concentrated at 11,400 - 11,200 yuan, the basis of mica lithium carbonate was concentrated at 11,500 - 11,200 yuan, and the basis of old ore materials (March - May) was concentrated at 11,800 - 11,100 yuan [17] - The core contradiction of lithium carbonate is that under the background of long-term overcapacity and an unbalanced supply-demand pattern, the resource side faces periodic compliance disturbances [17] - With the approaching of the downstream seasonal peak season, the monthly balance after the gradual production cut of the smelter corresponding to CATL's mine has turned to continuous inventory reduction, and the performance of the peak season demand has a greater impact on the inventory reduction amplitude [17] - Therefore, in the current high macro sentiment, the price elasticity is large when the supply-side disturbance speculation is realized, and the downward support is strong [17]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on August 26, 2025 - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.39% to 3868.38, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.26% to 12473.17, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.75% to 2742.13. The trading volume of the two markets was 2679 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 462.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Indexes: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4452.59, down 16.63 [2]. - Futures: The weighted index of coke closed at 1679.6, down 40.8; the weighted index of coking coal closed at 1155.5 yuan, down 37.7 [3][4]. 2. Core Views on Different Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The 7 - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented this week, and the coking profit has improved. However, some coke enterprises may face short - term production restrictions due to the military parade, and there is a regional shortage of coke resources. The demand for coke is currently high but may decline during the military parade [5]. - Coking coal: More mines have resumed production this week, and the import volume of Mongolian coal is relatively high. Although the theoretical import profit of sea - borne coal is narrowing, the short - term supply is still abundant [5]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Asian high rainfall is beneficial to sugarcane growth, which suppresses the price of US sugar. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined significantly on August 26 due to the fall of US sugar and the reduction of spot prices [5]. 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai rubber fluctuated widely, rising in the morning due to the decline of rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and heavy rainfall in Thailand, but falling in the afternoon due to the poor financial reports of German car companies and concerns about future rubber demand [6]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - In the international market, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated on August 26, with good crop growth conditions. In the domestic market, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, and the inventory of soybean meal is increasing. The price of soybean meal is in a state of shock, and the future trend depends on Sino - US trade negotiations and soybean imports [9]. 2.5 Live Pigs - On August 26, the LH2511 contract closed down 0.36%. The supply of suitable pigs is sufficient, and the terminal consumption may improve with the approaching of the school season and holidays, but the actual consumption recovery is restricted by many factors. The price of live pigs may fluctuate widely [9]. 2.6 Palm Oil - On August 26, palm oil futures continued to fluctuate in a high - level range. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.9% compared with the same period last month. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased week - on - week [10]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - Fed Chairman Powell's dovish statement has increased the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, which is beneficial to copper prices. The supply of refined copper in China may increase slightly, and the demand is expected to improve with the approaching of the peak season [10]. 2.8 Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14085 yuan/ton on the night of August 26, and the cotton inventory decreased by 127 lots [11]. 2.9 Logs - The futures price of logs was affected by the increase of foreign quotes. The spot trading was weak, and attention should be paid to the price, import data, inventory changes and macro - expectations in the peak season [12]. 2.10 Steel - On August 26, the rb2510 contract closed at 3113 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3367 yuan/ton. The weak reality still restricts the rebound of steel prices, but there are still expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" [12]. 2.11 Alumina - The supply of alumina is increasing, while the growth of downstream electrolytic aluminum capacity is slowing down, resulting in a prominent supply - demand contradiction and downward pressure on prices [12]. 2.12 Shanghai Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum is affected by the expectation of interest rate cuts and real - estate policies. The inventory has increased, and the future price depends on consumption performance [13].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole central bank conference strengthens expectations for a rate cut in September, leading to a significant pullback in the US dollar index [1][2] - Powell highlighted a "peculiar balance" in the labor market due to a substantial slowdown in both supply and demand, indicating increased downside risks for employment [2] - The revised monetary policy framework emphasizes a balanced approach to managing employment and inflation targets, with long-term inflation rates primarily determined by monetary policy [2] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - Downstream consumption improvement has led to a decrease in social copper inventory, which fell by 0.87 million tons to 123,000 tons as of August 25, compared to the previous week [3] - The current copper price is reported at 79,270 to 79,520 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease in the average premium to the current month contract [3][5] - Despite the decrease in inventory, rising copper prices are suppressing downstream consumption, increasing the pressure for inventory accumulation [1][3] Group 3: Aluminum Market Analysis - Aluminum ingot inventory increased significantly, with a total of 616,000 tons reported as of August 25, reflecting a rise of 20,000 tons from the previous week [4][6] - The current price of aluminum is reported at 20,780 yuan/ton, with a slight increase from the previous trading day [4][6] - Overall, the aluminum market remains in a seasonal lull, with supply changes being minimal and downstream consumption still weak [1][4] Group 4: Domestic Real Estate Policy - Shanghai has announced significant real estate policy changes, including easing restrictions on home purchases and optimizing housing fund policies, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [2] - These policies are set to take effect on August 26, 2025, and are expected to boost market confidence [2]