宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 5 月 18 日 周度金融市场跟踪 本周全球股市普遍上涨，债市收益率震荡上行 （ 5 月 12 日 -5 月 16 日） chenxi.li@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300525010002 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：郭军 (8610)66229081 jun.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519070001 证券分析师：李晨希 ◼ 股票方面， 本周受中美谈判顺利影响，A 股整体呈现上涨，但大小盘股日内走势有 所分化。全周累计看，沪深 300 上涨 1.1%、中证 1000 下跌 0.2%、中证 2000 上涨 1.0%，这是连续第 5 周上涨。港股恒生指数上涨 2.1%，恒生科技指数上涨 2.0%。行 业方面，本周 31 个一级行业指数 20 个收涨，9 个收跌。美容护理、非银金融和汽车 领涨；计算机和国防军工领跌。周内看，周一（5 月 12 日）凌晨新华社发布新闻中美 经贸高层会谈取得了实质性进展，达成了重要共识。当天市场超 4 ...

在贸易企稳背景下，美国经济活动或呈现通胀先抬升，经济活动后走弱，这或使美联储2025年维持观 望。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在5月16日的报告中表示，中美贸易紧张局势近期虽有缓和， 但美国通 胀预计将从5月开始明显上升，全年通胀率可能升至3.0-3.5%，这将迫使美联储在2025年保持利率不 变。 美国财政谈判进展表明财政立场将基本保持不变，缺乏大规模刺激措施。 对投资者而言， 这意味着美国经济将进入低增长、高通胀的组合，资产定价需要适应"没有降息"的新现 实。 美联储2025年将按兵不动 商务部官方消息，当地时间5月10日至11日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头 人、美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔在瑞士日内瓦举行中美经贸高层会谈。本次中美经贸高层会 谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的 反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税。 大摩分析师表示， 尽管贸易冲突降级大大减少了贸易流量硬停止的风险，进而降低了经济近期衰退的 可能性。然而，13%的有效关税率仍然远高于年初的约2%，政策不确定性 ...

中美贸易正在重新"活跃"起来。 5月15日晚，经济观察报记者从一场外贸行业线上交流会上获悉，随着中国出口美国货物恢复发 运，业内预计海运价格的上涨潮已拉开序幕。 "中国始发货量或将出现短线激增，并在6月底迎来 高峰。" 5月15日下午，有国际货运界人士告诉经济观察报记者。 "一部分客户立刻恢复了生产、出货，一部分还在观望，需要谈新的价格。"5月14日上午，鸿利达 控股有限公司（下称"鸿利达"）首席商务官蔡铭峰对经济观察报记者如是说。 同日，广东微电新能源有限公司（下称"微电新能源"）董事长陈志勇亦向经济观察报记者表示，自 今年4月以来美国大幅对华加征关税，公司暂停了出口美国的合作订单。"现在可以重启了。"他 说，当下第一步是清理库存。 5月12日，商务部新闻发言人就《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》（下称《联合声明》）发表谈话 时表示，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计91%的 加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"（暂停90天），中方 也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税（暂停90天）。这一举措符合两国生产者和消费者的期待，也符合 两国利益和世 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resumption of Sino-US trade has led to significant changes in Yiwu's export industry, with increased orders and a positive market sentiment despite ongoing trade risks [1] Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Following the latest tariffs from Sino-US trade negotiations, trade activities have resumed, leading to a surge in logistics and manufacturing in Yiwu [1] - Yiwu's market sentiment index has shown steady growth, increasing from 1414.33 points at the beginning of the year to 1424.95 points, with a 2% year-on-year growth even in April when high tariffs were imposed [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Merchants in Yiwu express cautious optimism, acknowledging the ongoing risks and challenges posed by Sino-US trade fluctuations [1] - There is a strong emphasis on diversifying market expansion strategies to adapt to changing trade conditions [1]

经济观察报记者 张锐 郑晨烨 中美贸易正在重新"活跃"起来。 5月15日晚，经济观察报记者从一场外贸行业线上交流会上获悉，随着中国出口美国货物恢复发运，业内预计海运价格的上涨潮已拉开序幕。"中国始发货量 或将出现短线激增，并在6月底迎来高峰。"5月15日下午，有国际货运界人士告诉经济观察报记者。 "一部分客户立刻恢复了生产、出货，一部分还在观望，需要谈新的价格。"5月14日上午，鸿利达控股有限公司（下称"鸿利达"）首席商务官蔡铭峰对经济 观察报记者如是说。 同日，广东微电新能源有限公司（下称"微电新能源"）董事长陈志勇亦向经济观察报记者表示，自今年4月以来美国大幅对华加征关税，公司暂停了出口美 国的合作订单。"现在可以重启了。"他说，当下第一步是清理库存。 5月12日，商务部新闻发言人就《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》（下称《联合声明》）发表谈话时表示，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降 低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"（暂停90天），中方也相应暂停实施 24%的反制关税（暂停90天）。这一举措符合两国生产者和消费者的期待， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The results of the China-US talks exceeded expectations, with the US reducing tariffs on China. The terminal's window period for rush exports and re - exports has been extended, and the demand expectation for the next two months has improved marginally [5]. - The situation of the Suez Canal has changed, with a 15% transit fee discount for large container ships starting from May 15, aiming to boost traffic and revenue [4]. - Wall Street banks and traders have adjusted their expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and Citi have postponed their expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts [4]. - For coking coal, the domestic supply is increasing, and the inventory pressure is concentrated in coal mines. Although it benefits from tariff reduction in the short term, there is still pressure on the price after the rebound [5]. - For coke, steel mills have started the first round of price cuts in May. The cost support is weakening, and the short - term strategy is to go short on rallies [7]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Part 1: Trading Strategies and Spot - Futures Market Conditions 1. Domestic Prices - Futures: The prices of coking coal and coke showed weak performance after rebounding. The J2509 contract of coke closed at 1472.00 (unchanged), and the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 883.00 (unchanged) [13]. - Domestic Spot: The prices of first - grade and second - grade coke in Tangshan, and quasi - first - grade and first - grade coke in Rizhao remained unchanged. The prices of medium - sulfur and low - sulfur main coking coal in Lvliang and Anze also remained unchanged [14]. 2. Import Prices - The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal decreased by 5.00 yuan/ton to 820.00 yuan/ton, while the price of Mongolian 5 clean coal remained unchanged at 1015.00 yuan/ton. The prices of some imported coals such as Peak Downs (CFR) and Peak North (CFR) increased slightly, while others remained unchanged [18]. Part 2: Fundamental Analysis 1. Supply and Demand - The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 63.01%, with a change of 1.11% compared to the previous period. The daily average output of clean coal was 53.44 tons, with a change of 1.34 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 75.27%, with a change of 1.86%. The daily average output of coke in independent coking plants and 247 steel mills also had corresponding changes [23]. 2. Inventory - The coking coal inventory in six ports decreased by 13.97 tons to 297.81 tons. The coking coal inventory in coking plants decreased by 42.66 tons to 916.62 tons, while the coking coal inventory in steel mills increased by 2.42 tons to 787.21 tons. The coke inventory in four ports decreased by 9.04 tons to 229.08 tons, the coke inventory in coking plants decreased by 4.52 tons to 94.44 tons, and the coke inventory in steel mills decreased by 4.19 tons to 671.03 tons [26]. Part 3: Price Spreads - Not elaborated in detail in the document, only figures related to price spreads are listed [34]

Core Viewpoint - Following the latest adjustments in China-US tariff policies, many foreign trade companies in regions like Shanghai and Jiangxi have resumed supplying the US market, leading to a surge in orders and shipping demands [1][6]. Group 1: Order and Production Surge - A foreign trade company in Yangzhou received five emails from US clients, resulting in over 5 million yuan in new orders, with clients eager to expedite delivery times [1]. - In Jiangxi, a textile company is working overtime to fulfill a new order of 100,000 sets of children's clothing, with orders scheduled through September [3]. - A knitting factory in Shanghai is preparing to ship products as US clients have resumed orders, with plans to start shipping by May 17 if inspections are passed [4]. Group 2: Market Expansion and Recovery - Companies have not only expanded into European and domestic markets but are also quickly restoring exports to the US, with expectations of surpassing 100 million yuan in US orders this year [6]. - A helmet manufacturing company in Ganzhou received a request to resume supplying over 500,000 helmets to US clients, indicating a strong recovery in demand [6]. - Merchants in Yiwu are experiencing rapid order placements from US clients, although some previously delayed shipments have already been sold to other markets due to tariff issues [8][9]. Group 3: Logistics and Shipping Challenges - The logistics sector is witnessing a surge in orders due to the increased shipping demands from foreign trade companies, leading to a peak in exports to the US [11]. - According to trade tracking agency Vizion, container booking volumes from China to the US surged nearly 300% following the tariff reductions, with average bookings rising from 5,709 to 21,530 standard containers within a week [13]. - Shenzhen Yantian Port is handling over a quarter of the national export volume to the US, with shipping processes accelerating as clients aim to stockpile goods during the 90-day window [14].

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 16 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： 防守观望 | | | ◆国债： 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： 暂时观望 | | | ◆铁矿石： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆双焦： 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： 建议观望 | | | ◆镍： 建议观望或逢高做空 | | | ◆锡： 区间交易 | | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： 震荡 | | | ◆纯碱： 观望。 | | | 震荡 ◆烧碱： | | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： 震荡运行 | | | ◆甲醇： 震荡运行 | | | ◆塑料： 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡反弹 | | | ◆苹果： 震荡运行 | | | ◆PTA： 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆鸡蛋： 走势偏弱 | | | ◆玉米： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆豆粕： ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间：2025年05月16日08时21分 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读： 中美贸易谈判结果远超市场预期，极大的提振了市场信心，螺纹从低位反弹。 4 月的信贷数据较差，印证降准降息等重磅举措的必要性 ，政策面利 多基本兑现。房地产方面，核心城市有所企稳，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。本周我的钢铁公布的数据显示，产量有所上升，厂库回落， 社库继续回落，总库存下降，表观需求回升。限产传闻对市场提振作用有限，但生产端认为今年大概率会有限产政策出台 。整体来看，目前市场逐 渐由强现实向弱现实转变，短线受中美大幅互减关税影响而得到提振 ，但弱预期可能还没有发生实质性的改变 。从技术上看，短线大幅反弹，下行 趋势进入低位震荡。 操作建议： 观望。耐心等待利空因素计价完毕之后，充分调整后可尝试逢低做多，谨慎追涨，以防短线利多兑现后出现大幅调整 ； 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 数据类别 指标 单位 最新 较上日 较上周 期现货价格 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3118 -9 -0.29% 66 2.16% 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3260 -7 -0.21% 69 2.16 ...

Group 1: Overall Core View - The black industry market is affected by multiple factors including macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international relations. Different products in the black industry have different trends [1][3][4] Group 2: Report on Each Product 1. Rebar - On Thursday, rebar futures prices fluctuated narrowly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3,250 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 132 (+19) [1] - In terms of macro - policies, on May 7, three departments issued a package of financial policies, and the Sino - US talks had better - than - expected results. In the industrial aspect, this week, rebar production and apparent demand both increased, and inventory continued to decline. Whether demand has started seasonal decline needs further observation [1] - In terms of valuation, rebar futures prices are still lower than the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces, with a low static valuation. In terms of driving factors, the Sino - US trade environment has improved, and the probability of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies in the short - term is small. The current supply - demand situation is okay, but demand faces seasonal decline pressure. It is expected that prices will fluctuate [1] 2. Iron Ore - On Thursday, due to the good expectations from the Sino - US talks, the market speculated on export rush again, and the futures price rebounded. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 773 yuan/wet ton (-5), the Platts 62% index was 102.20 US dollars/ton (-0.60), and the monthly average was 99.67 US dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 82 yuan/ton (-5) [1] - The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,422.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 118. The total inventory of 45 ports + 247 steel mills was 23,197.69 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 439.84. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 244.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 [1] - Steel mills' profitability this week is okay, and the willingness to resume production after blast - furnace maintenance is strong. As it is about to enter the traditional off - season, there is limited room for the high - level hot - metal output to increase further, with a peak - reaching expectation. The positive effect of domestic monetary policy has landed, and the follow - up macro - expectation effect is weakening. It is expected that iron ore will maintain a box - shaped oscillation [1] 3. Coking Coal - In terms of supply, coal mines in domestic main production areas are generally stable, but some areas have phased production cuts due to safety inspections and sales pressure, and overall supply is relatively loose. In terms of imports, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is suppressed by weak demand, and traders' quotes are under pressure [3] - In terms of demand, the expectation of coke price cuts continues to ferment, downstream coke enterprises maintain a low - inventory procurement strategy, the auction market sentiment is weak, and the transaction price of some coal types has declined. The supply - demand contradiction in the coking coal market is not significantly alleviated, and coal mine inventory pressure is emerging. In the short - term, prices may continue to be under pressure [3] 4. Coke - In terms of supply, coke enterprises in main production areas maintain a stable production situation, and some areas continue to limit production due to continuous pressure on profit margins, but overall capacity release is relatively loose. In terms of demand, steel mills continue the low - inventory management mode, and the restocking rhythm is mainly based on rigid demand. High - level hot - metal output supports short - term consumption, but the expectation of seasonal weakening of terminal demand suppresses the willingness to stockpile raw materials [4] - The improvement of Sino - US relations boosts market sentiment, but the expectation of simultaneous decline in domestic and foreign demand for steel products intensifies the negative feedback pressure on the industrial chain. Mainstream steel mills still have a tendency to reduce prices when purchasing raw materials. The coke market is in a weak balance state of strong supply and weak demand, and short - term prices may continue to oscillate within a range [4] Group 3: Industry News - On May 15, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Continuously Promoting Urban Renewal Actions", which requires the renovation of old urban communities, the construction of complete communities, and the renovation of old blocks, old factories, and urban villages [6] - From January to April 2025, the online retail sales and volume of China's home appliance market (excluding 3C) increased by 9.1% and 1.2% year - on - year respectively, and the offline retail sales and volume increased by 14.8% and 4.5% year - on - year respectively [6] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the Fed is considering adjusting the core content of the monetary policy guidance framework to deal with major changes in inflation and interest - rate prospects after the 2020 pandemic [6] - According to Mysteel's May survey on the southward movement of steel from the north, the planned southward movement volume of northeast rebar in May was 360,000 tons, an increase of 142,000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 7,000 tons month - on - month. The planned southward movement volume of wire rods was 275,000 tons, a decrease of 66,000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 20,000 tons month - on - month [6] - The Inner Mongolia Industry and Information Technology Department carried out on - site verification of the implementation of the 2024 stepped electricity - price policy and announced the verification results [6]