美国5月职位空缺意外增加37.4万个，达到776.9万个，超出市场预期。然而，招聘人数下降11.2万人， 降至550.3万人，且6月制造业PMI显示制造业依然低迷。供应管理协会(ISM)的调查显示，关税政策的不 确定性导致供应链瓶颈，工厂等待原材料的时间延长，企业对长期采购决策持谨慎态度。机械制造商甚 至形容当前商业环境为"糟糕透顶"，反映了贸易政策对实体经济的冲击。 黄金ETF最新持仓数据： | 日期 | 净持仓量（盎司） | 净持仓量（吨） | 总价值（美元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-07-01 | 30486604.07 | 948.23 | 102065136577.81 | | 2025-06-30 | 30624797.70 | 952.53 | 100644114369.24 | （注：黄金ETF持仓增加，表明买盘增加，市场看涨黄金的情绪升温，利多黄金；黄金ETF持仓减少， 表明卖盘增加，市场看跌黄金的情绪升温，利空黄金。） 【要闻回顾】 国际黄金周二（7月1日）日K收涨，美市尾盘，国际黄金收报3338.17美元/盎司，上涨35.46美元或 1.07 ...

昨日作为6月最后一个交易日，黄金行情走势基本契合我们此前的预判，成功上演超跌反弹戏码。月线收官之际，多空双方展 开激烈角逐，昨日周一早间金价一度下探，刷新上周低点至3245一线，随后多头强势反攻，整个呈震荡上扬态势，最终日线 以大阳线收盘于3302一线。周五的非农就业数据因美国独立日假期提前至周四晚间公布。当前市场目光聚焦于7月9日特朗普 关税截止日，这或许是多头扭转局势的最后契机。同时市场对美联储降息及宽松货币政策的预期也在升温。若关税措施无法 为黄金多头注入强劲上涨动能，美联储降息对黄金多头的支撑作用可能也较为有限。 操作策略2：建议回调3322-3315做多，止损3308，目标看3338-3350。 生活除了投资，还有诗和远方，以及徐老师。面对市场，实际上就是面对自己，改正缺点，直面错误，严格律己，不说谎 言，才是成功的根本。目前主要研究现货黄金为主，笔者涉足金融以及金融衍生品分析多年，指导经验丰富，以上分析内容 仅供参考，不构成具操作，盈亏自负，投资有风险，入市需谨慎） 从技术面看，黄金近期持续慢阳连涨，几乎无回撤迹象，在横盘蓄力后一举突破3321附近的小压力位。欧盘时段若继续上 扬，阻力位需上移至3 ...

特朗普力推的万亿减税计划需发行天量国债，而当前4.25%-4.5%的基准利率使得融资成本高企。特朗普 表示，降息能为政府节省"数十亿美元"。 特朗普指责鲍威尔，传递出什么信号？ 文/ 《清华金融评论》 王茅 特朗普强调， 希望任命"愿意降息"的新主席，称 降息能为政府节省"数 十亿美元"。特朗普对美联储事务"横加干涉"，短期内会导致资本市场震 荡， 长期政策可信度受损。不过，根据当前的经济数据和美联储官员的 最新表态，美联储可能在 202 5年9月启动降息。 近日，特朗普公开宣称希望美联储主席鲍威尔辞职，他指责鲍威尔"固执"且"拒绝降息"，强调希望任 命"愿意降息"的新主席。特朗普希望鲍威尔"下台"，特朗普要求美联储立即降息1-2.5个百分点，这个幅 度远高于市场预期。 特朗普的态度至少传递出以下两个核心信号：一是政策分歧公开化。特朗普对鲍威尔的态度，反映其试 图通过人事更迭推动宽松货币政策，以配合其减税计划（需要低利率以降低发债成本），并实现中期选 举前的经济刺激目标。 二是美联储独立性受挑战。若鲍威尔被迫提前离任，将打破美国总统通常等待任期结束再提名继任者的 惯例。美联储前官员警告，此举可能催生"影子美联 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Asian emerging market credit fundamentals are currently favorably valued due to stimulus policies from China and other Asian countries to offset trade war impacts [1] - Asian central banks are easing monetary policies, contributing to low credit spreads in the region [1] - The U.S. economy shows signs of slowing growth, leading to a cautious outlook for Asian credit markets as the Federal Reserve balances avoiding recession and controlling inflation [1] Group 2 - Local currency government bonds in Asia are supported by both fundamental and technical factors, with local buyers seeking to increase investments in these perceived risk-free securities [2] - Despite low yield levels, there is optimism for Asian local currency bonds due to favorable basic and technical factors, with some Asian emerging markets experiencing slowing inflation [2] - The expectation is that local central banks will maintain accommodative monetary policies without significant concerns over inflation, especially in the context of potential economic slowdowns [2] Group 3 - The strength of the U.S. dollar is expected to weaken by Q1 2025, which will put pressure on the dollar index [3] - The trend of de-dollarization is anticipated to benefit certain Asian local currency bond markets, with positive expectations for bond prices and exchange rates [3] - India is projected to be one of the least affected countries by tariff impacts, with a favorable outlook for the Indian bond market despite recent gains [3]

Group 1 - The overall economic growth rate is higher than the national average of 5% and the previous year's Q1 growth of 5.3%, positioning it among the leading global economies, yet many individuals and businesses continue to struggle in a challenging environment [1] - The automotive industry is facing significant difficulties, with reports of large-scale layoffs, such as those at Jiyue Auto, attributed to a lack of support from shareholders and subsequent cash flow issues [1][3] - The broader economic environment is causing shareholders to be concerned about potential losses, leading to predictions of a challenging market outlook [3] Group 2 - There are expectations for three significant changes in the domestic economy post-July, including potential increases in household income, driven by government policies aimed at supporting wage growth [5][7] - Recent policy initiatives have led to local governments raising minimum wage standards, such as in Shanghai and Qinghai, which directly benefits low-income workers [8] - The government is set to implement more aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, with a historical high deficit rate of 4% and a total new scale of 12 trillion yuan in 2025, aimed at stimulating economic activity and increasing income for the lower strata [10][11] Group 3 - A new round of real estate market liberalization is underway, with Guangzhou being the first major city to fully lift purchase restrictions, which may encourage similar actions in other cities and boost market confidence [14][17] - The removal of restrictions in major cities is expected to create a ripple effect, potentially increasing demand in surrounding areas and stabilizing property prices [17] - The government is likely to continue introducing policies to promote economic growth and consumer spending, presenting opportunities for both businesses and workers [19]

泰国央行：通胀将保持低位，货币政策将继续保持宽松以支持经济。 ...

日本央行审议摘要：一位成员表示，鉴于当前高度的不确定性，央行应在此阶段维持宽松的货币政策， 保持现行利率水平，以坚决支持经济。 ...

贵金属日报 2025-06-24 贵金属 沪金涨 0.56 %，报 786.10 元/克，沪银涨 0.89 %，报 8809.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 0.86 %， 报 3365.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 0.86 %，报 35.88 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.38%，美元指数报 98.16 ； 市场展望： 美联储票委表态鸽派，同时海外地缘政治风险释放，宏观环境将驱动白银价格表现强于黄金。 昨夜美联储官员表态连续鸽派，美联储理事鲍曼表示若通胀压力得到控制，她支持在下一次议 息会议中尽快降低利率，令其更接近中性水平，并维持相对健康的劳动力市场。芝加哥联储主 席古尔斯比表示过去三个月并未出现太多的通货膨胀，若贸易政策的影响消退，应当继续进行 降息。联储宽松货币政策预期的释放将驱动银价表现强势。 海外地缘政治风险方面，今晨美国总统特朗普宣布，伊朗和以色列已达成一致，将进行全面停 火。避险因素对于黄金价格的支撑将有所弱化。 海外风险事件逐步消退的同时，联储持续释放宽松的货币政策预期，CME 利率观测器显示，市 场预期美联储下半年将分别在 9 月以及 10 月议息会议中进行 ...

Gold Market - The gold price has been under pressure due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals and a lack of increased safe-haven buying amid Middle East tensions, with prices dropping to a one-week low of $3340 [1] - President Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell, suggesting a 250 basis point rate cut, while the Fed maintained rates in June, with an increasing number of officials expecting no cuts this year [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, including potential negotiations with Iran, has also contributed to the downward pressure on gold prices [1][2] Oil Market - Oil prices experienced volatility, initially rising to $77.66 due to concerns over U.S. military involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, but later fell to around $73 as negotiations were announced [3] - The easing of tensions through potential talks between the U.S. and Iran has reduced risk premiums in the oil market, leading to a significant price drop [3] - Current EIA data indicates rising seasonal demand and low compliance with OPEC+ production increases, which may limit further declines in oil prices despite geopolitical uncertainties [3] U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. Dollar Index has retreated from above the 99 level, with support noted around 98.50 and resistance at 99.40, indicating potential for a bottoming pattern [4] Dow Jones Industrial Average - The Dow Jones has shown a downward trend, with resistance at approximately 42200, suggesting a risk of accelerated declines if it remains below this level [5]

Group 1 - Record futures bets have been accumulated by U.S. rate traders, speculating that after Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, the Federal Reserve will adopt a more dovish policy stance immediately [1] - The speculation about the successor to Powell leading immediate rate cuts stems from Trump's ongoing criticism of Powell for not lowering rates [1][2] - Futures bets have increased significantly since Trump indicated he would soon nominate a successor, with a focus on the impact of tariffs on the economy and inflation [1][2] Group 2 - Standard Bank's Steven Barrow noted that Trump may choose a successor who is more in favor of loose monetary policy, which could complicate the confirmation process in Congress [2] - Analysts, including Gavekal Research's Will Denyer, suggest that Trump's early nomination of a Fed chair could lead to investor focus on the "shadow" Fed chair's statements and Powell's signals for nearly a year [2] - The futures market is seeing heavy selling of the March 2026 SOFR contracts while buying the June 2026 contracts, indicating a bet on rate cuts during that period [2][3] Group 3 - On Monday, futures position volume reached a record 108,649 contracts, with open interest for March and June 2026 contracts at their highest levels in the current policy cycle [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is expected to focus on officials' forecasts, with the median dot plot predicting one rate cut in 2025 [3] - Traders anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members will introduce approximately 43 basis points of easing by the end of the year, with the first cut likely in October [3]