文 | 远东资信，作者 | 张林 当前房地产市场的总体状况依然不尽人意。从销售看，2025年前10月商品房销售面积同比下滑6.8%， 销售额同比下滑9.6%，10月百强房企销售额同比下滑超过30%，传统"银十"彻底缺席。从房价来看，10 月70城10月环比、同比继续全线下跌，二手房跌幅更大。从库存看，消化周期已达30个月的历史新高， 三四线更高。从稳地产的政策效果来看，目前白名单贷款已超4万亿、保交楼专项借款3000亿、城中村 改造收购存量房，但市场反应却越来越钝化。 以上这些现状和数据，正是万科展期的一个宏观背景。 从宏观经济研究的视角来看，加大救助房地产市场的力度是非常有必要的。新旧动能转换当然需要社会 资源的重新配置，持续高增长的房价会挤出其他领域的投融资机会。日本在房地产泡沫破裂后的经验与 教训也说明，投融资体系需要快速的从传统领域切换到新领域，而不应仍在房地产、建筑等传统领域持 续输血，以避免金融体系的资产负债表损失集中而快速的显现。 但是，也应当看到日本当时缓慢而长期的通缩环境实际上并不利于创新体制的形成，创新往往意味着高 风险，但日本的银行部门因净息差收窄而普遍产生"惜贷"现象，居民部门忙于去杠 ...

Core Insights - The conference theme "Paddling in the Middle Stream" reflects the industry's recognition of deep changes in the primary market, emphasizing the need to accumulate strength for future progress [3] - The event gathered influential figures from various sectors, highlighting the importance of cross-capital collaboration and the evolving landscape of investment opportunities [3] Group 1: Market Trends and Insights - The CEO of 投中信息, Yang Xiaolei, indicated that the industry is at a turning point with improved sentiment and data, but it is unlikely to return to previous highs. He noted that state-owned capital now constitutes 75%-80% of market funding, acting as a stabilizing force [6] - Guo Xinyu, Chief Economist at Guo Xin Securities, discussed the transition period of China's economy, facing challenges like deflation and insufficient domestic demand, while policy support is aiding market recovery. He predicts that by 2026, multiple driving forces, especially in technology, will enhance market returns [8] - Qiu Zhongwei, Chairman of Taikang China, highlighted the growth potential of China's M&A funds, which focus on cash flow and operational management, and are expected to increase their market share to international levels [10] Group 2: Sector-Specific Developments - Jie Xiaoyong, President of Industrial Investment at Sunshine Power, emphasized the long-term potential of the renewable energy sector, particularly in solar and storage, and the importance of industrial mergers for competitive growth [12] - Xu Yirong, Vice President of Shanghai Guotou, discussed the company's innovative fund management practices and its focus on supporting long-term projects through a comprehensive fund matrix [14] - Lu Shengdong from ICBC Investment shared insights on AIC's investments in hard technology and strategic emerging industries, emphasizing a long-term and value-driven investment approach [16] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Directions - The conference featured discussions on the newly published book "History of Venture Capital in China," which chronicles the evolution of the venture capital industry over the past two decades, providing insights into key institutions and events that shaped the market [22] - The "2025 Annual Limited Partner List" was released, showcasing significant awards and rankings that reflect the dynamics of China's private equity market, serving as a reference for institutional positioning and strategy [23] - The event concluded with a call for continued collaboration and innovation in the private equity sector, aiming to drive sustainable growth and value creation in the future [24]

据了解，本次大会以"中流击水"为主题，聚焦当下一级市场正在经历的深度变化。大会汇聚了荀玉根， 太盟中国董事长邱中伟，前海方舟董事长靳海涛，上海国投副总裁许业荣，阳光电源（300274）产业投 资总裁、阳电资本董事长解小勇，工银资本董事长陆胜东等多位行业嘉宾。 中证报中证网讯(记者王辉)11月27日，投中信息和投中网主办的第19届中国投资年会.有限合伙人峰会在 上海举行。国信证券首席经济学家、研究所所长荀玉根在本次大会上发表主题演讲时表示，智能制造的 发展潜力和高ROE行业的成长，有望提高未来中国股市的回报中枢。 结合历史经验，荀玉根判断，当前市场处于长期上行趋势的中期，基本面逐步改善，科技类行业仍 有"扩散空间"，而智能制造的发展潜力和高ROE(净资产收益率)行业的成长，有望提高未来中国股市的 回报中枢，为资本市场和经济长期发展奠定基础。 荀玉根在"希望的田野——中国经济和资本市场展望"的主题演讲中，对中国经济和资本市场进行了深入 分析。荀玉根表示，当前中国经济正处于新旧动能转换期，面临内需不足等挑战，但政策持续宽松推动 股市回暖，为消费和投资信心提供支撑。展望2026年，宏观政策、外部环境和科技创新将形成多 ...

2025年11月14日，国务院新闻办新闻发布会例行发布2025年三季度经济数据。总体而言，中国经济交出 了一份总体平稳的成绩单。国家统计局数据显示，当月规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.9%，环比增长 0.17%；社会消费品零售总额同比增长2.9%，环比增长0.16%；全国城镇调查失业率为5.1%，比上月下 降0.1个百分点；全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨0.2%（上月为下降0.3%），环比上涨0.2%。 这些指标表明，在复杂多变的国际环境和国内结构调整的双重压力下，中国经济在10月份继续展现出了 较强韧性。笔者认为，整体回顾2025年前三季度的表现，国内生产总值同比增长5.2%，为实现全年预 期目标奠定了坚实基础，全年经济增长目标实现在即。 从10月份我国经济运行的基本情况来看，生产端保持稳定、新动能持续壮大是显著特点。10月份，工业 生产保持稳定增长态势：全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.9%，环比增长0.17%。分门类看，采矿 业、制造业以及电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业均实现平稳增长，分别增长4.5%、4.9%和5.4%。 同时，产业结构优化和升级的趋势正在持续显现，其中装备制造业和高技术制造业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current bull market is still in its early stages, drawing parallels to the historical "5·19 market," which lasted two years with a 120% increase before policy withdrawal ended it. Current economic pressures and low CPI indicate that policy support is still needed [2][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The current bull market is expected to last 1-2 years, with signs indicating it is still early in the cycle. Characteristics typical of a late bull market, such as a surge of new investors and overconfidence among existing investors, have not yet emerged [2][3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a 10-year high despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, suggesting a disconnect between stock market performance and economic fundamentals [3]. Group 2: Economic Context - The Chinese economy is experiencing "growing pains" during its transition, reminiscent of the period from 1998 to 2000, characterized by overcapacity in traditional industries and a downturn in real estate [3]. - Real estate constitutes 60% of household wealth in China, with property prices in first-tier cities dropping by 30%-50%. For instance, property values in Shanghai have decreased by 35%, leading to significant wealth erosion for residents [3]. Group 3: Policy Implications - To reverse the trend of declining asset prices, policy intervention is crucial. Historical precedents show that timely policy measures can lead to rapid market recoveries, as seen in the "5·19 market" and the "9·24 market" [4]. - The external environment is shifting, with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, which could provide more room for domestic policy easing in China [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The emergence of new economic sectors, particularly in intelligent manufacturing, is becoming evident. Innovations such as the DeepSeek-R1 model and humanoid robots are setting the stage for a significant industrial upgrade [5]. - China's manufacturing sector is benefiting from a large pool of graduates and engineers, which enhances its cost advantages and positions it for a successful transition from old to new economic drivers [5].

Macro Insights - In October 2025, industrial enterprises' profits fell to -5.5% year-on-year from 21.6% in September, while revenue growth also declined to -3.3% from 3.1% [2] - The cash flow of industrial enterprises continues to improve, with cash and short-term investments rising to 5.3% year-on-year in September from 5% in August [2] Fixed Income Analysis - The report discusses the transition of China's economy into a new phase of old and new driving forces, emphasizing the need for a new framework for fundamental analysis [2] Consumer Sector Strategy - The real estate cycle, particularly changes in real estate prices, is crucial for assessing the recovery of consumption in 2026, with expectations of structural stabilization in housing prices [3] - The current allocation and valuation of the essential consumer sector are at historical lows, indicating a high probability of a bottoming out, suggesting opportunities for investment [3] Aerospace and Defense - The report highlights the advancements in reusable rocket technology, with China actively developing rockets like Zhuque-3 and Long March 12A, which are expected to enhance space transportation capacity and reduce costs [5] - The success of reusable rockets is anticipated to accelerate the construction of large satellite constellations, particularly in satellite internet [5] Company-Specific Insights - BOSS Zhipin (2076 HK) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 107.6 HKD, benefiting from its leading position in online recruitment and expected steady profit growth [6] - Advantest (6857 JP) is also rated "Buy" with a target price of 23,000 JPY, poised to benefit from the increasing complexity of AI chips and the growth of the semiconductor testing market [6] - Gaotu Group (GOTU US) reported a revenue of 1.58 billion CNY for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.7%, with a focus on improving profitability through AI technology [9] - Atour (ATAT US) achieved a revenue of 2.628 billion CNY in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38.4%, with a strong outlook for both hotel and retail segments [10] - Zhongjiao Holdings (839 HK) reported a revenue of 7.363 billion CNY for FY25, indicating a year-on-year growth of 11.9%, transitioning towards a focus on internal growth and value enhancement [10]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong's economic strength is attributed to multiple advantages, strategic guidance, and enhanced internal dynamics, reflecting a deep internal logic that supports its robust economic performance [2][6]. Group 1: Political Leadership - The comprehensive leadership of the Party is fundamental to the strong economic momentum, with the central government optimizing macro policies and providing guidance for local development [2][3]. - Shandong's government aligns closely with the central government's strategies, ensuring effective responses to economic fluctuations and promoting stable growth [2][3]. Group 2: Strong Real Economy - The solid foundation of the real economy serves as a stabilizing force, with Shandong leveraging its diverse industrial base to focus on the development of the real economy [3][4]. - The province emphasizes the importance of advanced manufacturing and the integration of digital and real economies to enhance industrial stability [3]. Group 3: New and Old Momentum Conversion - Continuous conversion between new and old economic drivers is crucial, with Shandong actively eliminating outdated capacities and fostering new growth areas [4][5]. - The province is undergoing a significant transformation, optimizing traditional industries while nurturing emerging sectors like high-end equipment and quantum technology [4]. Group 4: Innovation Leadership - Innovation is identified as the primary driver of economic momentum, with Shandong prioritizing technological advancements and the establishment of high-level innovation platforms [5][6]. - The province is witnessing a shift from resource-driven to innovation-driven development, significantly enhancing its growth potential [5]. Group 5: Geographic and Open Economy Advantages - Shandong's strategic geographic location facilitates extensive connectivity and trade, enhancing its economic dynamism [5][6]. - The province's open economic framework allows it to efficiently gather global resources, maintaining a leading position in import and export activities among northern provinces [5][6]. Group 6: Implementation of New Development Concepts - Shandong's economic dynamics reflect the effective implementation of new development concepts, showcasing the province's commitment to high-quality growth and national development goals [6].

Group 1 - The current bull market is still in its early stages, with characteristics of a late bull market, such as a surge of new investors and complacency among old investors, not yet observed [1] - Historical reference to the "5.19 market" indicates that bull markets typically last 1-2 years, and the current cycle has only lasted one year, suggesting further potential for growth [1] - The macroeconomic environment is challenging, with the stock market performing strongly despite economic difficulties, reminiscent of the period from 1998 to 2000 [2] Group 2 - The key to resolving economic issues lies in halting the decline in asset prices, similar to the policy interventions seen in 1999 that spurred market growth [3] - The external environment is favorable for China, as the Federal Reserve is entering a rate-cutting cycle, which could provide room for domestic policy easing [3] - The emergence of new economic sectors, particularly in intelligent manufacturing, is expected to drive industrial upgrades and surpass the old economy's dominance [4] Group 3 - Intelligent manufacturing is gaining traction, with significant advancements such as the DeepSeek-R1 model achieving performance comparable to OpenAI's models at a lower cost [4] - The cost advantages of Chinese intelligent manufacturing are highlighted by the large number of engineering graduates, which supports the sector's growth [4] - The successful transition from old to new economic drivers is anticipated, with intelligent manufacturing expected to play a crucial role in this transformation [4]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment faces increasing pressure and challenges due to external demand slowdown and weakened domestic demand, but positive factors are accumulating, indicating that the annual economic growth target remains achievable [1] Economic Performance - From January to October, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with cumulative growth maintained for three consecutive months since August [1][2] - The revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 1.8% year-on-year, creating favorable conditions for profit recovery [2] - High-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors are the main driving forces, with profits in the equipment manufacturing sector rising by 7.8% and high-tech manufacturing profits increasing by 8.0% [2] Industrial Profit Trends - In specific sectors, profits in graphite and carbon products manufacturing, biochemical pesticides, and cultural information chemicals manufacturing saw significant increases of 77.7%, 73.4%, and 19.1% respectively [3] - The report from Guotai Junan Securities suggests that sustained profit improvement requires ongoing supply-side structural optimization and effective demand expansion policies [3] Physical Indicators - Social electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kWh in October, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, marking the highest monthly growth rate this year [4] - Railway freight volume reached a historical high of 3.378 billion tons from January to October, with a year-on-year growth of 3% [5] - The express delivery business volume grew by 16.1% year-on-year, reaching 162.68 billion pieces in the first ten months [5] - Excavator sales increased by 17% year-on-year, with domestic sales up by 19.6% and exports up by 14.4% [5][6] Policy Support - The "Two Heavy" construction initiative is a key focus for expanding effective investment and fostering new productive forces, with significant funding allocated for major projects [7][8] - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting the expansion of infrastructure REITs, covering various sectors including logistics, public utilities, and clean energy [9] - New policy financial tools have been fully deployed, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, focusing on digital economy and urban renewal [10]

Core Viewpoint - The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that from January to October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.9% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth since August. However, in October, profits decreased by 5.5% year-on-year [1]. Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - From January to October, the profits of high-tech manufacturing industries increased by 8.0%, surpassing the average growth rate of all industrial enterprises by 6.1 percentage points [1]. - The decline in profits in October is attributed to a higher base from the previous year and a rapid increase in financial costs [1]. Group 2: Performance of Specific Industries - The intelligent electronic manufacturing sector showed positive growth, with profits from the manufacturing of intelligent unmanned aerial vehicles and intelligent vehicle-mounted equipment increasing by 116.1% and 114.9% year-on-year, respectively [1]. - The semiconductor manufacturing sector also experienced significant profit growth, with integrated circuit manufacturing, electronic special materials manufacturing, and semiconductor discrete device manufacturing seeing year-on-year profit increases of 89.2%, 86.0%, and 17.4%, respectively [1]. - In the precision instrument manufacturing sector, profits from optical instrument manufacturing and specialized instrument manufacturing grew by 38.2% and 14.1% year-on-year [1]. Group 3: Traditional Industry Upgrades - The traditional industries are showing significant improvements in quality and efficiency, with profits in the chemical and building materials sectors, such as graphite and carbon products manufacturing, increasing by 77.7%, and biochemical pesticides and microbial pesticides manufacturing by 73.4% [2]. - The bio-based chemical fiber manufacturing and recycled rubber manufacturing sectors also reported profit increases of 61.2% and 15.4%, respectively, both exceeding the average profit growth of their respective categories [2]. - The structural adjustments and upgrades in traditional industries reflect positive progress, with a shift towards high value-added segments through technological innovation and green transformation [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The combination of policy support and industrial upgrades is expected to lead to stable profit growth for industrial enterprises in the future, although external environmental changes may impact export-oriented companies [2]. - The profit trends for industrial enterprises are likely to show continued improvement in traditional industries through technological upgrades, sustained rapid growth in high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing, and a gradual recovery in market demand due to ongoing growth stabilization policies [2].