100张！ （ 十个宏观关注板块，百张精华核心图表 ） 16万人次！ （2025年压箱底培训合集） PART\ 01 华创宏观·产品一览 · 政策周观察 EX · 图观两会 策 追 · 重点政策数据库 · 旬度电话会议 · 图观地方两会 · 政策专题 踪 经济基 · 经济周观察 · 数据速览 · 数据点评 · 数据点评 · 旬度电话会议 · 各类经济专题 · 高频跟踪 k ET · 财政数据点评 (4) 财 · 金融数据点评 山 쳐 · 数据速览 · 央行动态跟踪 · 旬度电话会议 · 数据点评 · 财政专题 金 · 金融专题 E · 海外周观察 如今古 · 数据速览 · 全球货币转向 · 旬度电话会议 · 高频跟踪 · 数据点评 · 数据点评 海 · 物价与海外专题 · 2025年压箱底培训 · 2024年宏观十日谈 · 一图透视,思维导图系列 (6) · 2023年宏观反诈系列 · 精选好图, 宏观视界系列 H · 2022年宏观落地系列 箱 · 2021年宏观落地系列 底 · 宏观核心百图 · 40张妙图大礼包 黄金超越指南系列 · 100个必读政策文件 云公十十十岁女子中男,光, PART\ 02 产 ...

回顾2013年，年初还在每盎司1597美元高位盘旋的金价，如同断了线的风筝般"哗啦啦"地坠落，年末时已跌至1197美元的低谷。短短半年光景，跌幅近三 成，让那些怀揣"抄底"梦想的投资者们，深陷套牢的泥沼，多年未能缓过神来，那段时期，"谁买谁心碎"成为黄金市场的真实写照。然而，时移世易，仅仅 十余年后，黄金价格上演了令人瞠目结舌的逆袭。2025年9月，伦敦金价一度攀升至3684美元/盎司的历史性高位，国内市场也同样火爆，上海黄金现货报价 飙升至832.72元/克，周大福、金至尊等品牌门店的实物金价更是高达1078元/克。与2013年的悲惨境遇形成鲜明对比，此刻买入黄金的投资者，恐怕已在梦 中笑醒。 全球央行的黄金热潮：去美元化的战略棋局 黄金市场的过山车：从2013年的寒冬到2025年的暖春，再到未来的迷雾 引言：历史的回响与现实的变奏 驱动这轮黄金飙升浪潮的，并非仅仅是市场情绪的狂欢，更有着全球央行集体增持的强劲支撑。2025年第二季度，全球央行合计增持黄金166吨，这一数据 足以说明问题。波兰央行更是展现了持续的决心，连续11个月增持黄金；中国央行也默默耕耘了10个月；土耳其、卡塔尔等国家也纷纷加入购金大军 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic trends and their impact on various asset classes, highlighting key insights on gold, currency exchange rates, and bond markets throughout 2025 [2]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The analysis on January 2, 2025, indicates a bullish outlook on gold, suggesting that the acceleration of U.S. Treasury bond maturities may lead global central banks to increase gold purchases [3]. - The article notes that investment demand for gold in Europe and the U.S. is expected to accelerate in the latter half of the year [3]. Group 2: Currency and Exchange Rates - On January 16, 2025, the article discusses the resilience of the Renminbi (RMB), attributing it to the central bank's counter-cyclical adjustments and domestic economic strength, despite widespread expectations of depreciation [4]. - The analysis on July 8, 2025, differentiates between a weak dollar and the concept of "de-dollarization," suggesting that anticipated interest rate cuts may support a temporary strengthening of the dollar index [9]. Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The March 17, 2025, commentary warns against a linear bullish mindset in the bond market, indicating that asset allocation strategies may be shifting [5]. - The article highlights the potential for a rebalancing of investment strategies in the bond market, moving away from traditional linear thinking [5]. Group 4: Policy and Economic Signals - The article from May 11, 2025, points to positive signals from policy developments, suggesting that trade negotiations and financial pressures may prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish stance [6]. - The June 15, 2025, analysis draws parallels between the current economic environment in Hong Kong and previous periods, suggesting that a weaker Hong Kong dollar and low interest rates could benefit the Hong Kong stock market [7]. Group 5: Market Behavior and Trends - The August 16, 2025, piece notes that inflation pressures have eased, leading the market to focus on the "weak balance" in the U.S. labor market, with a shift towards interest rate cut trades and capital inflows into the U.S. [10]. - The article concludes with a cautionary note regarding gold prices, indicating that market expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may already be priced in, contrasting with the bullish sentiment in the A-share market [11].

以下文章来源于仓都加满 ，作者仓都加满 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 作者：仓都加满 来源：雪球 最近看到一个消息很感慨，那就是《海龟交易法则》的作者柯蒂斯・费思（Curtis Faith），已经破产，无家可归，正在街头流浪。 从当年千万美金操盘的"天才海龟"，到如今流落街头、屡屡惹事，这个反差真的是让人感叹。曾经写下"系统交易、严格纪律"金句的人，如今却在 生活里失去了纪律，也许这就是人生的无常吧。 仓都加满 . 为人生更自由，做更好的投资者教育 01 什么是海龟交易法则 海龟交易法则是20世纪80年代非常有名的一套机械化交易系统，由大宗商品交易员理查德·丹尼斯（Richard Dennis）和他的伙伴威廉·埃克哈特 （William Eckhardt）提出。 核心背景是，丹尼斯想证明"交易可以教出来"，于是他在1983年招募了一批没有交易经验的人（后来被称为"海龟"），用严格的规则训练他们操作 期货市场，结果这些人确实赚到了大钱，成为经典案例。 海龟交易法则并不神秘，本质就是一套 机械化的趋势跟踪系统 。它把交易拆解为若干要素，并制定清晰的执行规则： | 交易要素 | 具体规则 | 核心逻辑 | | ...

Group 1 - China has been reducing its holdings of US Treasury bonds since 2022, with reductions of $173.2 billion in 2022, $50.8 billion in 2023, and $57.3 billion projected for 2024. In July 2025 alone, China reduced its holdings by $25.7 billion [1][3] - In contrast, Japan and the UK have increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds, with Japan purchasing $3.8 billion in July and holding $1,151.4 billion, while the UK bought $41.3 billion, holding $899.3 billion [3] - Experts attribute China's reduction in US Treasury bonds to concerns over US tariff policies and unfavorable fiscal conditions, leading to a decrease in the attractiveness of holding US debt [3] Group 2 - While China is reducing its US Treasury bond holdings, it is simultaneously increasing its gold reserves, having done so for ten consecutive months by August 2025, indicating a shift towards asset diversification for greater security [3] - Despite China's reduction, foreign investors are still buying US Treasury bonds, with total foreign holdings reaching a record high of $9.159 trillion in July, reflecting differing views on the risks and returns associated with US debt [3] - The total US debt has reached $37 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, prompting central banks globally to revise their reserve strategies and increase gold purchases, which have exceeded 1,000 tons for three consecutive years [3]

证 券 研 究 报 告 外资继续流入中国 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250912-20250919) www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 本周(20250912-20250919) 本周美联储如期降息25BPs符合市场预期，这也是美联储继2024年12月之后，时隔9个月再次宣布降息。鲍威尔表示，美国失业率维持在低位但略有上升。 通胀近期有所上升，仍处于略高水平。美国通胀风险上行，就业风险下行。得益于美联储的降息行动，本周发达和新兴股市均有不错表现，恒生科技领涨全球。1）固收方面，10Y美债 收益率上行8BPs至4.14%，美元指数保持基本稳定，当前点位为97.7，仍位于100以下；2）权益方面，得益于美联储的降息行动，本周发达和新兴股市均有不错表现，恒生科技上涨 5.1%，领涨全球。全球市场中，多数国家和地区的主要股指收涨，巴西和韩国股市涨幅明显；3）商品方面，美联储降息25BPs在市场预期之内，本周原油和黄金保持基本稳定，其中原 油下跌1.24%，黄金上涨1.05%。 ◼ 截止到2025/9/18，过去一周来看，内资和外资均大幅流入中国股市；海外资金主动和被动方面，海外主动基金过 ...

屈颖分析认为，黄金挂钩理财产品频繁出现因触发条件而提前止盈的现象，既体现了产品设计中的风险 控制机制，也反映出机构对后市波动的审慎判断。这种提前止盈现象具有阶段性特征。一方面，在金价 处于高位并伴随较大波动的情况下，理财机构通过触发止盈机制锁定收益，有助于保护投资者利益并维 持产品收益的相对稳定；另一方面，由于不同产品的设计结构、挂钩方式及触发阈值存在差异，并非所 有黄金挂钩理财都会提前止盈。总体来看，在高波动环境下，这种现象可能在短期内较为频繁，投资者 在配置时仍需关注产品条款细则及自身风险承受能力，合理规划投资策略。 发行提速创新多 近期，国际金价持续走强，连续多日站稳3600美元/盎司上方。在此背景下，挂钩黄金的理财产品市场 迅速回暖，产品平均收益表现亮眼，新发数量与规模也显著提升。业内人士指出，理财机构及投资者对 黄金资产的关注度持续升温，通过跨市场配置黄金，不仅能提升资产分散性，更能有效把握金价上行的 红利，增厚组合收益。 金价屡创新高 年初至今，伦敦现货黄金累计涨幅已接近40%，成为全球资产配置中的一大亮点。普益标准研究员屈颖 分析认为，本轮金价上涨的逻辑清晰，主要体现在宏观货币环境、新兴市场储备 ...

上交所投教大讲 上海信春交易所 投资者教育基地 券投资者教 RONG SECURITIES INVESTOR FI tB 发生理 AD 《善用资产配置 践行! 主办单位:上海证券交易所 内蒙古证监 承办单位:国融证券投资者教育基地 支持单位:内蒙古证券期货业协会 TI TI TIM 在 上海 给本 文 为 所 上海证明文明所 念 国政证券投资者教育基地 C 全 全 教 育 登 地 tBO 上交所投教大讲堂第 73 期 IESI 券股 資顾同 5007062107006 演讲主题 《善用资产配置 践行理性投资》 主办单位：上海证券交易所 内蒙古证监局 国融证券股份有限公司 承办单位:国融证券投资者教育基地 全景投教基地 支持单位:内蒙古证券期货业协会 ...

从投资角度看，茅台确实有一些独特优势。高端白酒毛利率普遍很高，且产品保质期长、无需频繁迭代，现金流稳定。茅台还具有品牌壁垒与社交属性， 承载文化符号和社交价值，头部品牌通过历史积淀形成不可复制的品牌溢价。茅台的品牌价值连续多年位居中国酒业榜首，远超第二名。 茅台价格短期内仍面临下跌压力，受库存去化、政策压制及消费淡季影响，茅台批发价和零售价可能继续探底，有望跌破茅台的市场指导价1499元，甚至 直逼出厂价1169元。未来的一两年时间，若消费复苏不及预期，茅台价格或维持低位震荡；若经济回暖，茅台价格有望回升。 9月17日，酒类行情监测平台茅系管家数据显示，2025年53度500ml飞天茅台散瓶批发参考价报1770元，较前一日下跌10元，再创上市以来的新低；原箱 报1790元，与前一日持平，但价格同样创出新低。 面对茅台价格下跌，很多消费者和投资者都在思考：现在是买入的好时机吗？茅台酒作为资产配置的一部分是否还有价值？ 在贵州茅台2025年半年度业绩说明会上，董事王莉在回应价格下跌时表示，公司坚持长期主义，"以自身的确定性应对各种不确定性"，并采取优化市场策 略、精准投放产品等措施维持市场平稳。她表示，8月以来终 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking the seventh cut since March 2023, which is expected to drive global capital out of the dollar and into new investment opportunities [1] - The Chinese government has removed restrictions on foreign investment in real estate to attract foreign capital and boost market confidence, particularly in core assets of first-tier cities [2] - The financing environment for domestic real estate companies is expected to improve, leading to lower loan rates for homebuyers and potentially increasing demand from first-time buyers [2] Group 2 - Asset allocation is emphasized as a wise choice in the current market, with a focus on selecting high-quality properties that can withstand risks and economic fluctuations [3] - The importance of choosing the right location and developer is highlighted, with recommendations to target well-planned areas with mature amenities [3][5] - The "Zhu Xinzhuang" area is identified as a prime location for investment, with specific projects from China Overseas being recommended [6] Group 3 - The "Future Realm" project has seen strong sales, with over 90 units signed within 50 days, indicating high demand for larger units [8] - The project’s amenities, including a neighborhood center designed to reduce costs for residents while maintaining quality, are noted as a competitive advantage [13] - The design and functionality of the units, particularly the 129 square meter four-bedroom layout, have been well-received, reflecting a shift in buyer preferences towards larger, quality assets [15][17] Group 4 - The project features advanced home technology and thoughtful design details, such as a dual-flow fresh air system and ample storage solutions, which enhance the living experience [20][21][22] - The focus on customer needs and pain points in the design process is emphasized, showcasing the project's commitment to quality and practicality [30][31] - The overall strength of the project is attributed to its location, amenities, and the developer's ability to deliver high-quality products that meet market demands [31]