Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the recent U.S. inflation data for September has come in lower than expected, which has led to increased market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the near future [2][3][5]. Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September showed a year-on-year increase of 3%, below the market expectation of 3.1%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, also below the expected 0.4% [3][5]. - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also rose by 3% year-on-year, lower than the anticipated 3.1%, and increased by 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3% [5][6]. Market Reaction - Following the CPI report, U.S. stock indices surged, with the Nasdaq rising over 1% to reach a historical high, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 also set new records [2][9]. - Major tech stocks performed strongly, with AMD increasing over 7%, marking a historical high, and other semiconductor stocks also seeing significant gains [9]. Federal Reserve Expectations - Analysts suggest that the CPI data strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates again in December, with traders betting on a cumulative rate cut of 120 basis points over the next 12 months [2][6]. - The report indicates that the Fed is likely to maintain a focus on softening employment data, even if core CPI remains above the 2% target [9][10]. Government Shutdown Impact - The article notes that the government shutdown has affected the timely release of economic data, with the Labor Statistics Bureau unable to collect necessary price information for October, complicating future policy decisions for the Fed [8][10].

（文章来源：新华财经） 美国白宫方面表示，下个月可能将是历史上第一次没有通胀数据可以发布。由于政府关门，调查人员无 法前往实地开展工作，这导致无法获取关键数据，其经济影响可能会极其严重。 ...

Core Insights - The recent inflation data has been described as a "timely rain" that alleviates market anxiety and supports the prevailing expectation of moderate inflation [1][2] - The current issues in the job market explain the Federal Reserve's commitment to its existing policy path [1][2] - Market expectations for two additional interest rate cuts this year have risen to 88%, which has led to a nearly 0.7% increase in S&P 500 futures [1][2] - Overall, this data has injected new momentum into the market's upward trend, although a significant deviation from expectations could trigger sell-offs [1][2]

Core Points - The White House announced that the ongoing government shutdown is likely to prevent the release of October's inflation data, marking a historical first for such an occurrence [1] - The shutdown has entered its fourth week, with Senate Democrats blocking temporary spending bills unless certain healthcare provisions are included [1] Group 1: Inflation Data Impact - The lack of funding has led to federal employees, including key agency staff, being furloughed, which hampers the collection of essential price data for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [2] - The September CPI showed a year-over-year increase of 3.0%, up from 2.9% in August, while the month-over-month increase of 0.3% was below market expectations [2] - Analysts emphasize that without the collection of price information in October, reconstructing a CPI report will be extremely challenging [2] Group 2: Market Implications - The White House's statement serves as a reminder to the market that the absence of critical data complicates the Federal Reserve's policy decisions in December [2] - While policymakers may have confidence in employment trends, their grasp on inflation direction is significantly weakened due to the lack of data [2]

Core Points - The White House announced that due to the government shutdown, the U.S. government may be unable to release the inflation data for October, marking the first time in history that this data will not be published [1] - The White House emphasized that the funding shortfall has hindered investigators from collecting critical data, which could lead to confusion for businesses, markets, households, and the Federal Reserve [1] - The government shutdown has now lasted for four weeks, with Senate Democrats blocking temporary spending bills unless healthcare subsidies are extended [1] Group 1 - The inability to publish the October inflation report is a significant event that could impact various sectors [1] - The government shutdown has resulted in a funding gap affecting federal employees, including those in key government agencies [2]

Core Viewpoint - Inflation data is overall lower than expected, providing relief to the market, primarily driven by housing costs [1] Market Reaction - Futures, bonds, and commodities (with gold recovering from lows) have reacted positively to the inflation data [1] - Initial market response is optimistic, as the data offers greater operational space for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [1] Federal Reserve Implications - The current market trend is primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - Greater policy space for the Federal Reserve benefits the market, indicating liquidity support from potential rate cuts and suggesting other monetary easing may follow [1] Bond Market Impact - Declining bond yields are favorable for the fiscal side, aiding government financing and future bond issuance [1] - Overall, the inflation data is viewed positively, enhancing market conditions [1]

Economic Impact - The White House anticipates that there will likely be no inflation data release next month, a historical first [1] - The White House warns that the economic consequences of the missing inflation data could be devastating [1] Political Context - The White House attributes the lack of inflation data to a Democrat Shutdown, preventing surveyors from collecting critical data [1] - The shutdown is allegedly preventing investigators from conducting field work, hindering data acquisition [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing tug-of-war in the gold market, highlighting the shifting roles of institutional and retail investors amidst significant price volatility and the upcoming U.S. inflation data as a critical factor influencing market direction [5][9][11]. Market Dynamics - The gold market is experiencing a significant shift, with institutions seemingly exiting and retail investors entering, although the roles of both groups are fluid and change with market conditions [5][6]. - On October 23, an analyst suggested a short position on gold at $4102 per ounce, with a stop-loss at $4108 and a target at $4060, indicating a strategy of small losses for larger gains [5]. - However, the market reacted differently, with gold prices rising and breaking through key resistance levels, prompting the analyst to switch to a long position at $4104 per ounce [6][7]. Price Movements - On the same day, gold prices exhibited extreme volatility, closing at $4138.42 per ounce, reflecting a 1.81% increase [7]. - The options market showed a buildup of put options below $4100 per ounce, while call options above this level were quickly cleared, indicating a market under pressure and poised for a breakout around $4155 per ounce [8]. Inflation Data Impact - The upcoming U.S. September CPI data is seen as a pivotal variable for the gold market, with expectations of an increase from 2.9% to 3.1% and core CPI remaining at 3.1% [11]. - Market expectations suggest a 96.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, which could be influenced by the CPI data [11]. Potential Scenarios - Three potential scenarios based on the CPI data are outlined: 1. If CPI increases ≤0.2%, expectations for rate cuts may rise, pushing gold to $4175 per ounce [12]. 2. If CPI increases ≥0.5%, rate cut expectations may diminish, leading gold to drop below $4095 per ounce [12]. 3. If CPI is around 0.3%, gold may oscillate between $4095 and $4145 per ounce, creating opportunities for options strategies [12]. Historical Context - The article draws parallels between the current gold market and past situations, such as early 2013, where conflicting factors led to unpredictable price movements [15]. - The upcoming CPI data is positioned as a potential catalyst for breaking the current market equilibrium, with implications for both gold and the U.S. dollar [15][16].

CONCLUDED Stock Market News From Oct. 24, 2025: Dow Tops 47,000 After CPI Inflation Report Last Updated: The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was unchanged at 4%, gold futures slipped 0.9% to $4,109 an ounce, and the dollar was up 0.1% against a weighted basket of its peers. West Texas Intermediate crude prices fell 0.3% to $61.58 a barrel. Updated 11 hours ago Markets Chase Record Highs. Stock Futures Rise Ahead of CPI Inflation Report. By George Glover Stock futures were rising Friday as investors waite ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe are suppressing the euro's outlook while increasing demand for traditional safe-haven assets, particularly the US dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve's persistent hawkish stance supports the strength of the dollar, with officials suggesting that interest rates need to remain at current levels longer than previously expected [1] - In contrast, the Eurozone is facing a significant slowdown in business activity, with recent PMI data confirming contractions in both manufacturing and services [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted a cautious tone, indicating substantial downside risks to economic growth, which exacerbates downward pressure on the euro [1] - The widening divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the US is creating fundamental imbalances, further supporting the dollar [1] - Overall fundamentals continue to favor the dollar, suggesting further downside potential for the euro against the dollar [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis shows that the EUR/USD pair is forming a narrow consolidation range around 1.1600 after a significant downward move, indicating the potential for a third wave of downward trend [4] - A decisive break below this consolidation range could signal a resumption of bearish momentum, with an initial target of 1.1488 [4] - The MACD indicator confirms this bearish technical outlook, with its signal line remaining below the zero line and pointing downward, indicating ongoing selling pressure [4] Group 4 - The one-hour chart indicates that a downward move has completed at 1.1576, followed by a pullback to 1.1620, outlining the current consolidation area [6] - A breakout from this range could trigger a short-term pullback to 1.1655 before resuming a broader downward trend, targeting 1.1500 [6] - Conversely, a break below this range would directly trigger bearish fluctuations, with a target of 1.1488, marking the completion of the first phase of the third downward wave [6] Group 5 - The combination of fundamental support for the dollar and the deteriorating outlook for the Eurozone maintains a bearish bias for the EUR/USD pair [7] - The currency pair appears to be pausing within a broader downward trend, with a break below 1.1600 potentially triggering the next leg down, targeting 1.1488 [7]