1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish, recommended to buy on dips and hold for the long - term [1] - Silver: Bullish, recommended to buy on rebounds and hold for the long - term [1] - Copper: Bullish, recommended to buy on dips and hold for the long - term [1] - Zinc: Bearish, recommended to hold short positions in the short - term and sell on rallies in the long - term [1] - Lead: Bearish, price under short - term pressure [1] - Tin: Bearish, price rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Bearish, price under short - term pressure [1] - Nickel: Bearish, price under short - term pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the geopolitical situation is seeking a truce, reducing risk - aversion sentiment. The market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, with expectations that Fed Chairman Powell may take a hawkish stance, which will suppress the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and cause the US dollar to rebound. This has an impact on the prices of precious metals and base metals. In the long - term, factors such as global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reshaping of the geopolitical pattern will support the prices of precious metals, especially gold. For base metals, supply - demand relationships, strategic resource attributes, and industry development trends will affect their price trends [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Global parties are seeking a cease - fire in geopolitical conflicts, and the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is highly anticipated. Gold and silver are trading in a narrow range [2] - **Basic Logic**: The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. Different institutions have different expectations for his stance. There are also signs of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Hamas situation. In the short - term, it is difficult for gold to break through the range, but in the long - term, it may be in a long - term bull market [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may find support around 770, and long - term positions can be considered after stabilization. Silver's short - term trading range is between 9150 - 9400, and it is recommended to go long in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the US - Russia - Ukraine tripartite meeting [4] Copper - **Market Review**: The fluctuation of Shanghai copper has converged, and it closed with a doji star after narrow - range trading [6] - **Industry Logic**: Recently, there have been disruptions in copper mines, but the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has improved marginally. The output of electrolytic copper in July increased, but it may decline marginally in August - September due to smelting maintenance. It is currently the consumption off - season, but demand is expected to pick up with the arrival of the peak season. The overall copper inventory overseas has increased slightly, and the domestic social inventory has also risen slightly. The annual copper supply - demand is in a tight balance [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: As the global central bank annual meeting approaches, the US dollar index has rebounded, and copper prices are under pressure. It is recommended to buy copper on dips. Enterprises can wait for high - level opportunities to sell and hedge to lock in reasonable profits. In the long - term, copper is a strategic resource in the Sino - US game, and there is a long - term bullish outlook. The attention range for Shanghai copper is [78000, 80000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [9650, 9950] US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc has been oscillating weakly, testing the support of the lower level [9] - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant. The output of refined zinc in China in July and August increased. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has risen, and smelter enthusiasm has increased. On the demand side, due to factors such as Vietnam's tariff increase on galvanized steel and the domestic consumption off - season, the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline. The spot market trading is dull, and domestic zinc inventories have increased [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, due to the off - season of demand and inventory accumulation, zinc is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions and take partial profits on dips. In the long - term, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, wait for opportunities to sell on rallies. The attention range for Shanghai zinc is [22000, 22600] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [2700, 2800] US dollars/ton [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices have declined under pressure, and alumina has also shown a downward trend [12] - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, there are still uncertainties in overseas macro - trade policies. The cost has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The demand side has seen a slight increase in the start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises. For alumina, the rainy season in Guinea may affect the arrival volume in August, and domestic alumina plants have increased their loads. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has accumulated, and the short - term supply - demand is expected to be loose [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short - term, paying attention to the change of aluminum ingot inventory during the off - season. The operating range of the main contract is [20000 - 20900] [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices have been running weakly, and stainless steel has been under pressure [16] - **Industry Logic**: Overseas macro - environment is still uncertain. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, and NPI smelters are facing cost inversion. The output of refined nickel in China has increased, and the inventory has accumulated during the off - season. For stainless steel, the effect of production cuts is weakening, and there is still over - supply pressure during the off - season [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the change of downstream inventory. The operating range of the main nickel contract is [120000 - 123000] [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened higher and moved higher, with increased positions throughout the day, rising more than 4% [20] - **Industry Logic**: Although the overall inventory and output have decreased slightly, the absolute quantity is still at a high level in recent years. After CATL confirmed production suspension, the market expects synchronous production suspension of other mines in Jiangxi. With the arrival of the peak demand season, downstream material factories have started the stocking cycle. The inventory structure will amplify price elasticity. The main contract of lithium carbonate is expected to rise further after the de - stocking expectation is strengthened [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply speculation expectation still exists, and long positions should be held in the range of [88500 - 91000] [22]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting is highly anticipated, with Fed Chair Powell's speech expected to provide significant insights into future monetary policy, especially in the context of current market expectations for easing [1] Group 1: Market Expectations and Economic Context - Market confidence in a September rate cut is seen as overly optimistic, with Barclays analysts suggesting Powell's speech may challenge this view [2] - The economic backdrop is markedly different from a year ago, with current policy rates 100 basis points lower and core PCE inflation expected to rise above 3% [3][4] - Retail sales data shows resilience in consumer spending, and financial conditions are looser compared to last year, indicating weaker support for rate cuts [4][6] Group 2: Inflation and Labor Market Dynamics - Despite slowing job growth, improvements in labor supply have not weakened household income resilience, suggesting Powell has reasons to maintain a hawkish stance [10] - Core inflation remains above 3%, with recent data indicating a rise in core CPI to 3.1%, which may lead to upward pressure on prices as businesses pass on tariff costs [8][9] - There is insufficient evidence to suggest inflation has peaked, with expectations for core PCE to rise further, diverging from the Fed's 2% target [9] Group 3: External Factors and Policy Review - External factors, such as tariffs, are contributing to rising inflation expectations, as consumer confidence surveys indicate increased concerns about price hikes [12] - Political dynamics surrounding the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) raise concerns about the integrity of future economic data, particularly after significant revisions to employment reports [12] - The Fed's ongoing policy framework review may lead to a re-evaluation of its inflation targeting approach, potentially abandoning the flexible average inflation targeting framework [14]

全球金融市场正屏息以待周五的杰克逊霍尔"全球央行年会"，美联储主席鲍威尔将在当天晚间发表致 辞。 近年来，鲍威尔曾多次在这一场合发表过对市场影响巨大的政策声明，而在当前市场宽松预期高涨的背 景下，鲍威尔这次讲话释放的任何信号将显得尤为关键。 尽管交易员相信疲软的就业市场已为鲍威尔"放鸽"打开大门，但多家华尔街大行却纷纷出面"唱反调"。 巴克莱和美银均认为，当前支持美联储降息的理由并不充分，因为劳动力市场仍具韧性，而在关税政策 的扰动下，通胀仍有上行风险。 考虑到距离9月会议还有一系列数据尚未公布，野村预计鲍威尔不会在周五给出"明确承诺"，美银甚至 预计鲍威尔会秉持强硬的鹰派立场，与市场的宽松预期相悖。大摩则预计，鲍威尔会在讲话中继续强调 通胀风险，抵制市场的降息预期。 巴克莱：市场过于自信了，降息背景和去年截然不同 因此，报告认为，从经济数据看，今年支持降息的理由远不如去年充分。 报告还指出，鲍威尔在7月会议后的鹰派言论，似乎并未被后续的经济数据所推翻。他当时已预警，考 虑到修正因素，就业增长的实际速度可能接近于零，并强调失业率仍处于低位——而7月的就业报告恰 好印证了这一观点。 巴克莱银行分析师Christ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing divergence in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with significant internal disagreements among Fed officials and external pressures from the White House [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly opposes aggressive rate cuts, suggesting that a 50 basis point cut in September would send the wrong signal, as the labor market, while weakening, does not require urgent measures [4]. - Daly maintains a forecast of two rate cuts this year, emphasizing that businesses have absorbed tariff costs and that inflation from goods is moderate, indicating a preference for gradual policy adjustments [4]. Group 2: External Pressures - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called for a 50 basis point cut in September, suggesting that rates should be lowered by 150-175 basis points [6]. - Market expectations for a September rate cut are high, with a 94% probability, including a 62.9% chance for a 25 basis point cut and a 22.5% chance for a 50 basis point cut, creating a dilemma for the Fed [6]. Group 3: Inflation Data - The latest data shows that the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 3.3% year-on-year in July, the highest level since February, and 0.9% month-on-month, significantly above the expected 0.2% [8]. - Core PPI also increased by 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, indicating persistent upstream price pressures [8]. Group 4: Divergence Among Wall Street Firms - Major investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup predict a 50 basis point cut in September, while JPMorgan forecasts cuts in both September and November, totaling 125 basis points for the year, citing a rapidly deteriorating job market [10]. - In contrast, Bank of America argues for maintaining rates until 2026, prioritizing inflation risks over employment concerns [10]. Group 5: Internal Disagreements within the Fed - The July Fed meeting saw the first dual dissenting votes since 1993, with officials advocating for an immediate 25 basis point cut, highlighting a split within the committee [12]. - The decision-making process is expected to be contentious leading up to the September meeting, influenced by upcoming employment and inflation data [12].

Core Views - The core consumer price index in July increased by 0.322%, aligning closely with expectations, but the details indicate a dovish stance for the core personal consumption expenditures price index [1][2] - Inflation risks are still tilted upwards, with tariff-related price pressures continuing to manifest in goods inflation, particularly as auto manufacturers transition to new model years [3][4] Economic Outlook - The company anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September, followed by further cuts in December and March of the following year, as employment data shows significant deterioration and inflation pressures are lower than previously feared [4][5] - Despite the economic growth outlook worsening since June, there are no signs of stress in the labor market or financial conditions, which reduces the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut [5] Inflation Dynamics - The core personal consumption expenditures price index forecast for July has been revised down to a month-on-month increase of 0.243%, suggesting that both year-on-year and three-month annualized growth rates will be slightly below 2.9% [3] - The average month-on-month growth rate for the core personal consumption expenditures price index in June and July was only 25 basis points, lower than the Federal Reserve's June economic forecast of 3.1% for year-end [3]

新华财经北京8月14日电 美国财政部长贝森特在接受彭博电视专访时，首次明确表态认为日本央行应加 快加息步伐以应对通胀风险，直言其货币政策已"落后于形势"。这一言论与日本央行行长植田和男坚持 渐进式紧缩的立场形成直接交锋，引发市场对日本货币政策转向的密切关注。 贝森特在采访中强调，日本面临的通胀压力正在累积，且这种态势已对全球资本市场产生连锁反应。他 指出，美国30年期国债收益率近期走高的部分动因来自日本及德国长期债券收益率的攀升，暗示海外央 行政策调整正重塑全球资本流动格局。"我的判断是，日本央行确实落后于形势，因此他们将会加 息。"贝森特如是说，但未对具体加息时点作出预测。 此番表态与日本央行行长植田和男的公开立场形成鲜明对比。尽管植田和男承认存在加息可能性，但其 始终以"潜在通胀尚未达标"为由维持审慎态度。所谓"潜在通胀"，主要指剔除鲜食品和能源的核心CPI 指标，该指标需稳定达到2%以上方符合日本央行的政策目标。然而，部分国际分析师质疑这一标准过 于保守，认为日本央行政策正常化进程缓慢已导致日元持续贬值，进而推升进口成本并加剧国内通胀螺 旋。 贝森特透露，他此前已与植田和男就此展开过直接沟通，但未透露对 ...

Group 1 - The average trade-weighted tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on all products has risen significantly to 20.11% as of August 7, up from 2.44% at the beginning of the year [1] - The U.S. government aims to bring manufacturing back to the country through its tariff policy, claiming it will reduce trade deficits and create jobs [1][5] - Evidence suggests that while tariffs may force some industries to adjust in the short term, they are not a long-term solution to the challenges facing U.S. manufacturing [1][5] Group 2 - Ford Motor Company is expected to suffer a profit loss of approximately $2 billion due to tariffs, despite being a potential beneficiary of the tariff policy [3][4] - General Motors reported a loss of $1.1 billion in the second quarter due to tariffs, while Stellantis estimated a loss of $350 million [2][3] - The combined profit loss for the U.S. automotive industry due to tariffs is projected to reach $7 billion by 2025 [2] Group 3 - The tariff policy has led to a misallocation of resources, pushing them towards low-end manufacturing sectors that have lost comparative advantages, resulting in decreased overall production efficiency [4][7] - The tariffs are causing a rise in manufacturing costs by 2% to 4.5%, leading to stagnant income, layoffs, and potential factory closures [7] - The structural issues within U.S. manufacturing, such as labor shortages and aging infrastructure, are exacerbated by the tariff policy, making it difficult for the industry to recover [9][10] Group 4 - The U.S. manufacturing sector's recovery is hindered by the long-term negative impacts of the tariff policy, which may lead to persistent inflation and slowed job growth [6][8] - The disparity between foreign direct investment intentions and actual investments indicates that promised investments may not materialize, undermining the effectiveness of the tariff policy [8][9] - The structural problems in U.S. manufacturing, including a shift towards service industries and a lack of skilled labor, complicate the goal of revitalizing domestic manufacturing through tariffs [10]

Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market indices showed positive recovery last week, with rapid sector rotation observed[13] - The total margin financing balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan, indicating high market sentiment[37] - The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 5.1 basis points, reflecting a warming bond market[13] Group 2: Economic Indicators - July export data exceeded expectations, with rare earth exports reaching 5,994.3 tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%[13] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July recorded a year-on-year change of 0%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6%[23] - Exports to the EU and Africa increased by 9.2% and 42.4% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a recovery in overseas demand[18] Group 3: External Factors - The MSCI developed markets index rose by 2.38%, while the MSCI emerging markets index increased by 1.78% last week[31] - The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a key event to watch[37] - The U.S. imposed a 25% additional tariff on goods from India, which may impact market volatility[31]

Group 1 - The core concern is whether the weakness in the employment report reflects a decrease in labor demand or a labor shortage, or possibly both [2] - The uncertainty caused by the "tariff turmoil" since April may have led many employers to delay hiring plans, but this uncertainty should have decreased now, suggesting that hiring activities should resume [2] - The labor supply has stopped growing due to the Trump administration's effective border closure and ongoing deportation actions, indicating that the Fed should pause rate cuts to avoid exacerbating labor shortages and increasing inflation [2][4] Group 2 - The July non-farm payroll report showed weakness, and the duration of unemployment has been steadily increasing, making a case for the Fed's easing policy [4] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits remain low, indicating a low layoff rate, while the number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits has been rising, confirming that the duration of unemployment is lengthening [5][6] - The decision on whether the Fed will cut rates in September largely depends on the CPI inflation reports for July and August, with expectations that these data will show an increase due to tariffs [8][9]

21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 在美联储理事库格勒意外提前辞职后不到一周，新任理事人选火速出炉。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月7日，美国总统特朗普表示，已选定现任白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬 ·米兰接替刚刚空出的美联储理事席位，任期至2026年1月31日。特朗普还称，将继续寻找长期的美联储 职位替代者。 米兰曾在特朗普第一任总统任期内担任美国财政部经济政策高级顾问，拥有哈佛大学经济学专业的博士 学位，是"海湖庄园协议"总设计师。 权宜之计 8月1日，美联储发表声明称，美联储理事库格勒辞去美联储理事的职位，于本月8日正式卸任。库格勒 的理事任期原定于明年1月结束，其提前离职使得特朗普可提前进行新一轮人事任命。 米兰在美联储理事会的任期只有几个月，特朗普任命米兰为临时理事无疑是"权宜之计"，为后续提名14 年任期的理事甚至下一任美联储主席铺路。 Evercore ISI高级经济学家兼策略师Marco Casiraghi表示，特朗普选择米兰是权宜之计，给自己留出了在 明年1月之前做出最终决定的时间。这样一来，特朗普就不会束缚自己的手脚，在新任美联储理事和美 联储主席人选上能保留一些选择。 长期以来米兰一直批评鲍 ...