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大规模解禁潮将至!“高处不胜寒”的老铺黄金股价能否承受冲击?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 11:25
老铺黄金自2024年6月在港交所上市以来,每股股价从发行价40.5港元一路飙升至800港元附近,涨幅20倍左右,远超同期国际金价30%的涨幅。这一优异表 现,主要得益于美联储步入降息周期为黄金行业带来的发展机遇,以及老铺黄金自身突出的核心竞争力推动其业绩爆发式增长。数据显示,2024财年公司净 利润同比增幅高达253.9%;同时其估值也颇具优势,PE值一度低至17.9。 值得注意的是,2025年6月28日老铺黄金将迎来上市后最大规模的限售股解禁潮,解禁后市场流通股份将大幅增加,叠加解禁股东的潜在减持行为,可能加 剧市场抛压,引发股价短期波动。在这一关键节点,市场情绪变化与技术面走势值得密切关注。从长期来看,需重点关注解禁股东后续的减持计划等行为, 同时结合公司基本面变化,综合评估其发展的长期韧性。 截至2025年4月29日收盘,老铺黄金(6181.HK)股价收于760港元,涨幅6.59%,市值高达1280亿港元,是港股市值最高的黄金珠宝龙头企业。 老铺黄金的核心竞争力 老铺黄金在品牌定位与产品差异化策略上独树一帜,其以"古法工艺"作为核心竞争要素,深度挖掘中国传统文化内涵,将产品与"吉庆""传承"等具有深厚文 ...
黄金“不跪”
和讯· 2025-04-29 10:39
文/曹萌 五一假期临近,资本市场似乎进入了提前放假的行情。就连今年大热的黄金,也已围绕着3300美 元/盎司一线震荡了多日。 过去的一周里,伦敦现货金经历了一轮过山车行情。从大幅上涨到大幅回撤,再到如今"不疼不 痒"的小幅震荡。虽然现在处于冷静期的金价有些无趣,但也让人对后市行情"浮想联翩"。 4月22日,在全球萦绕着对贸易战升级担忧的气氛中,伦敦现货金触摸到了3500美元/盎司的又一历 史新高。但随后便一路下行,不仅当日收跌1.3%,更丢掉了刚刚到手的3400美元/盎司关口。尽管 这波下跌来势汹汹,但国际金价今年以来仍以26%以上的涨幅,坐稳全球大类资产表现最佳的宝 座。 可能按照国际单位计算金价上涨幅度,对于 大众 来说并不直观。 因此,换个角度来看,2024年年 初,北京菜百人头攒动,那时千足金金饰价格不过600元/克左右,而现在已迈入克金千元时代。 伴随金价不留喘息的上涨,你应该会听到身边的朋友这样说:"我当时就是买少了。"而无论是真的 投资,还是对金饰情有独钟,涨了,赚了,知足常乐。 金银因其稀缺、可分割等特性自然而然成为了货币的首选材料。但在上世纪70年代,布雷顿森林货 币体系崩塌后,由于美元与黄 ...
成交量、成交额呈现大幅增长趋势——一季度我国黄金市场稳健运行
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-04-28 22:05
Group 1: Production and Supply - In Q1 2025, China's gold production reached 87.243 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.49%, with gold mining contributing 61.772 tons and by-product gold from non-ferrous metals contributing 25.471 tons [1] - Total gold production, including imported raw gold of 53.587 tons, amounted to 140.83 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.18% [1] - Major gold companies are adjusting production layouts and advancing the construction of smart and green mines, while also accelerating overseas acquisitions [1][4] Group 2: Consumption Trends - In Q1 2025, gold consumption in China was 290.492 tons, down 5.96% year-on-year, with gold jewelry consumption declining by 26.85% to 134.531 tons, while investment in gold bars and coins increased by 29.81% to 138.018 tons [2] - High gold prices have suppressed jewelry demand, while investment demand for gold bars and coins has surged due to their lower processing costs and strong investment attributes [2][4] Group 3: Market Activity - The trading volume and value in the gold market showed significant growth, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange reporting a trading volume of 16,000 tons, up 4.57%, and a trading value of 10.7 trillion yuan, up 42.85% [3] - The domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 23.47 tons, reaching 138.21 tons by the end of March 2025 [3] - New regulations allowing insurance funds to invest in gold have been introduced, with the first transaction completed under this framework [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Rising gold prices are expected to lead to increased profits for mining companies, prompting higher exploration and extraction investments, although challenges such as declining resource grades and rising environmental costs remain [4] - The consumption structure is likely to shift further towards investment in gold bars and coins, with increased activity in gold ETFs and futures trading anticipated [4]
Velos Markets威马证券黄金现货交易指南:从入门到精通的全方位解析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-28 15:52
Group 1: Market Dynamics and Trading Logic - In 2025, gold is positioned as a traditional safe-haven asset, with its price fluctuations intricately linked to the US dollar index, inflation expectations, and international geopolitical situations [1] - Velos Markets utilizes technology and strategic tools to help investors identify opportunities amidst uncertainty, particularly during shifts in Federal Reserve monetary policy [1] Group 2: Core Advantages of Velos Markets - Velos Markets offers over 200 financial products, including gold spot trading, forex, and index CFDs, creating a diversified "hedging pool" [2] - The platform supports T+0 trading and flexible leverage adjustments, catering to various risk appetites, with short-term traders able to leverage up to 5 times [2] Group 3: Risk Control System - The platform employs a three-tier risk control architecture, including real-time monitoring of abnormal fluctuations, customizable stop-loss tools, and direct connections to global liquidity providers to avoid "slippage" [5] Group 4: Strategy Optimization - Velos Markets provides tools for cross-market arbitrage, allowing investors to capitalize on price discrepancies between New York and London gold markets [6] - The platform's "event calendar" and volatility index (GVZ) analysis tools assist users in predicting price movements during geopolitical tensions or major economic data releases [7] Group 5: Investment Guidance - For novice investors, Velos Markets suggests a combination of "smart dollar-cost averaging" and grid trading strategies to manage risk [9] - Advanced users can utilize the platform's API to develop personalized trading models, achieving a significant annualized Sharpe ratio of 2.3 through multi-factor analysis [10] Group 6: Global Gold Allocation Logic - Velos Markets integrates macroeconomic data from 15 major economies, allowing investors to assess long-term price support levels based on central bank gold purchasing trends [11] Group 7: Operational Model - The operational core of Velos Markets is a "dual-driven" model, connecting with top liquidity providers to ensure order execution speeds below 50 milliseconds [13] - The platform fosters a "strategy workshop" community for users to share validated strategy templates, enhancing trading efficiency and lowering strategy development barriers [13]
金价“过山车”背后的认知重构:黄金还是“避风港”吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-28 12:20
4月23日,周大福、周六福等品牌金价从1082元/克下调至1055元/克,周生生更是降至1048元/克。这场从每盎司3500美元历史高位跌至3260美元附近的"闪 崩",正在黄金产业链上掀起一场前所未有的连锁反应。 合肥的李女士正面临一个尴尬的抉择——她和男友已谈婚论嫁,"买金的钱已经给我了,但金价疯涨,买吧我舍不得,不买又不好看。"这种"买涨不买 跌"的心理在终端市场极具代表性。数据显示,4月周大福等品牌足金饰品报价最高达到每克1082元左右,较年初一度上涨35%,而短短数日就出现27元的 单日跌幅。 零售商被迫打响价格"闪电战"的背后,是库存压力与利润空间的残酷博弈。部分前几天刚买金的顾客甚至要求退货,但黄金饰品一经售出通常不支持无理 由退换。这种"价格锚点失灵"现象对婚庆等刚需场景形成直接冲击,有新人干脆选择"买道具替代真金",将钱款折现存入银行卡。 "早上刚上班就接到调价通知,足金饰品每克降了27元。" ——北京西单某周大福门店的销售顾问李婷面对突如其来的金价跳水显得措手不及。 黄金产业链正在用金融工具构筑防线。期货套保、定金杠杆等手段成为商家应对价格波动的标配,但这也将风险转嫁给缺乏经验的投资者。世 ...
过山车行情!国际金价跌破3300美元,多头逢高获利了结,未来怎么走?
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-04-28 11:51
华夏时报(www.chinatimes.net.cn)记者 叶青 北京报道 近期国际金价经历一轮过山车走势,4月22日COMEX黄金期货价格创出3509.9美元/盎司新高后,4月23日大幅走 低,一度回落跌至3300美元/盎司以下,较前日历史峰值下跌200美元,此后3个交易日一直围绕着3300美元波动。 4月28日,金价再度出现回调,盘中一度跌破3300美元整数关口,市场情绪明显趋于谨慎。截至发稿,金价暂时报 收于3294美元/盎司。 "进入4月以来,国际金价加速上涨,市场多头积累了大量获利盘。当价格触及高位时,部分投资者选择获利了 结,导致市场出现抛售潮,从而引发金价短期大幅下跌。上周金价从3500美元/盎司下跌至3300美元/盎司,这种 快速回调是市场调整的正常表现。"西安交大客座教授景川接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示。 黄金多空博弈加剧 值得关注的是,金价在上周创下历史高点后进一步下跌。有业内人士表示,正是由于金价涨势过快,一些交易员 选择纷纷平仓。对此,巴克莱银行发布研报称,上周SPDR黄金股票ETF的交易量突破创纪录的130万份合约,这 种期权仓位的变化可能预示着短期内市场过热。 对此,景川表示,过 ...
黄金短期波动放大,持续看好中长期走势 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2025-04-28 09:21
Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold - The short-term volatility of gold prices is expected to increase, while the medium to long-term outlook remains positive [2][6] - As of April 25, the COMEX gold futures contract decreased by 0.33% to $3,330.2 per ounce, and the SPDR Gold ETF fell by 0.6% to 946.27 tons [2][6] - Market expectations are being adjusted due to the fluctuating policies of Trump, which is likely to continue impacting gold prices [2][6] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Copper - As of April 25, the SHFE copper futures contract rose by 1.7% to 77,440 yuan per ton, with domestic copper social inventory at 181,700 tons, a decrease of 51,700 tons [3] - The market sentiment is recovering marginally, but remains relatively low due to uncertainties surrounding Trump's policies [3] - The demand for copper is expected to improve as domestic policies are implemented, with a tightening supply trend anticipated [3][6] Group 3: Industrial Metals - Aluminum - As of April 25, the SHFE aluminum futures contract increased by 1.7% to 20,030 yuan per ton, with domestic aluminum social inventory at 658,000 tons, down by 31,000 tons [4][5] - The traditional consumption peak season is approaching, leading to an increase in operating rates among downstream processing enterprises [5] - The aluminum price is expected to rise in the second quarter due to improved demand expectations from both domestic and overseas markets [5][6] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on gold, copper, and aluminum sectors, with specific recommendations for Chifeng Gold, Zijin Mining, and Tianshan Shares [6]
金价跌幅扩大!一季度黄金ETF持仓同比增327%,最新数据解读→
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-04-28 07:10
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in China's gold market activity, with a notable rise in gold ETF holdings and prices, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and economic concerns [1][2][5] - As of March 2025, domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 23.47 tons, reaching a total of 138.21 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 327.73% [1] - The London spot gold price rose to $3,115.10 per ounce by the end of March 2025, marking a 17.79% increase from the beginning of the year [1] Group 2 - The World Gold Council attributes the strong performance of gold in the first quarter to heightened geopolitical risks, trade policy uncertainties, and significant inflows into global gold ETFs [2] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has adjusted margin requirements and price fluctuation limits for various gold contracts in response to recent price volatility, effective from April 29, 2025 [3] - The introduction of insurance funds into the gold market is expected to provide long-term support for domestic gold investment demand amid ongoing economic uncertainties [5]
一季度黄金数据,最新发布!
新华网财经· 2025-04-28 03:23
据中国黄金协会4月28日发布的最新统计数据,2025年一季度,我国黄金产量87.243吨,同比增长1.49 %;我国黄金消费量290.492吨,同比下降5.96%。 2025年一季度,我国黄金市场成交量、成交额呈现大 幅增长趋势。 数据显示,2025年一季度,我国黄金消费量290.492吨,同比下降5.96%。其中:黄金首饰134.531吨, 同比下降26.85%;金条及金币138.018吨,同比增长29.81%;工业及其他用金17.943吨,同比下降 3.84%。 中国黄金协会 表示,受高金价抑制,黄金首饰消费需求持续疲软,古法金、硬足金和小克重金饰更为 紧俏,黄金与其他材质结合的产品也颇受年轻消费者喜爱。地缘政治复杂多变与经济不确定性使得黄金 避险保值的功能进一步凸显,民间金条和金币投资需求快速大幅度增长。工业用金随着高金价影响,呈 现出小幅下滑趋势。 数据还显示,2025年一季度,我国黄金市场成交量、成交额呈现大幅增长趋势。上海黄金交易所全部黄 金品种累计成交量双边1.60万吨(单边0.80万吨),同比增长4.57%,成交额双边10.70万亿元(单边 5.35万亿元),同比增长42.85%;上海期货交易 ...
买黄金时只需带一根针,真假黄金立马“现原形”,学会受用一生,涨知识了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-27 21:56
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying genuine gold amidst rising gold prices and the prevalence of counterfeit products in the market. It provides several methods for consumers to distinguish real gold from fake alternatives. Group 1: Identification Methods - Method 1: Look for the hallmark. All gold jewelry must have a hallmark indicating its material and purity. Different purities have distinct hallmarks, such as Au999 for 99.9% gold, Au750 for 75% gold, and Au585 for 58.5% gold. Markings like 18KRGP indicate gold-plated items with low gold content [3][6]. - Method 2: Use a magnet. Gold is non-magnetic, so using a magnet can help identify counterfeit items that may contain magnetic metals like iron or nickel. If the item is attracted to the magnet, it is likely fake [5][6]. - Method 3: Scratch test with a needle. Gold is soft and can be scratched easily, leaving a gold-colored mark. If a needle glides smoothly and leaves a gold mark, it is genuine; if not, it may be a fake [8][13]. - Method 4: Density test. Gold has a high density of approximately 19.3 g/cm³. By measuring the weight and volume of the gold item, one can calculate its density. A significantly lower density suggests it may be counterfeit [10][11]. - Method 5: Ceramic scratch test. Using an unglazed ceramic surface, scratching the gold should leave a gold mark. If the mark is black or gray, the item is likely not genuine [13].