Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform the Market" [3] Core Views - The report highlights the increase in overseas natural gas prices and lithium hexafluorophosphate prices, while methionine prices have decreased. It suggests focusing on sectors mentioned in the "14th Five-Year Plan," undervalued leading companies, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply, and electronic materials companies under the context of self-sufficiency [3][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of November 10-16, 2025, among 100 tracked chemical products, 42 saw price increases, 30 saw price decreases, and 28 remained stable. The average price of 31% of products increased month-on-month, while 56% decreased, and 13% remained unchanged. The top gainers included butyl acetate and sulfur, while the largest declines were seen in pure pyridine and methionine [8][29]. Price Trends - The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose to 135,000 CNY/ton, marking a 13.45% increase week-on-week and a 141.07% increase year-on-year. Conversely, methionine's average price fell to 19.55 CNY/kg, down 1.76% week-on-week and 0.91% year-on-year [31][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors highlighted in the "14th Five-Year Plan," undervalued leading companies, and the impact of supply-side reforms. It suggests a mid-to-long-term investment strategy that includes companies in emerging fields such as semiconductor materials and new energy materials, with specific recommendations for companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [10][29]. Market Performance - The basic chemical industry index rose by 2.61%, ranking 9th among 31 primary industries, while the oil and petrochemical sector increased by 2.29%, ranking 11th [8][10]. Key Stocks - The report identifies "Golden Stocks" for November as Hualu Hengsheng and Yake Technology, highlighting their strong performance and growth potential [5][11][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, highlighting several companies as key investment opportunities [6][7]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the end of the U.S. government shutdown and improving liquidity will support price performance in the metals market. It notes that macroeconomic factors, including weak economic data and interest rate cut expectations, will continue to influence metal prices positively [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%, while the SW Nonferrous Index rose by 0.20% during the week [3]. - Precious metals like gold and silver saw significant increases, with gold up by 1.91% and silver by 4.51% [3]. 2. Base Metals 2.1 Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by a decline in the U.S. consumer confidence index and expectations of interest rate cuts, despite a decrease in import volumes due to operational inefficiencies at Tanzanian ports [4][48]. - Aluminum production capacity remained stable, with domestic supply holding firm. However, demand is expected to weaken as the market transitions from peak to off-peak seasons [4][27]. - The report recommends companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum for investment [4]. 2.2 Energy Metals - The report is optimistic about energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, due to sustained demand from the energy storage sector and electric vehicles. Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply shortages [5]. - Key companies recommended include Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium [5]. 2.3 Precious Metals - The report anticipates continued upward movement in gold and silver prices, driven by central bank purchases and weakening U.S. dollar credit. It highlights geopolitical tensions as a significant factor influencing precious metal prices [5][80]. - Recommended companies in this sector include Western Gold and Shandong Gold [5]. 3. Price and Inventory Changes - The report provides detailed price changes for various metals, noting that aluminum prices are expected to range between 21,700 and 22,400 CNY/ton, while copper is projected to fluctuate between 86,000 and 89,000 CNY/ton [28][49]. - Inventory levels for aluminum and copper have shown mixed trends, with some increases in LME stocks for zinc and lead [14][50]. 4. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for several companies, with Zijin Mining projected to have an EPS of 1.21 CNY in 2024, and Huayou Cobalt expected to reach 2.50 CNY [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Zhejiang Provincial Committee's recent meeting outlined ambitious development goals for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on high-quality development and the establishment of a common prosperity demonstration zone, aiming for significant progress towards socialist modernization [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Achievements of the 14th Five-Year Plan - The meeting highlighted eight key achievements in Zhejiang's economic and social development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, including: - New heights in comprehensive strength - New leaps in innovative development - New breakthroughs in reform and opening up - New effectiveness in narrowing the "three major gaps" - New progress in cultural strength - New appearances in beautiful Zhejiang - New enhancements in social governance effectiveness - New steps in building a high ground for party building and integrity [2]. Development Goals for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The meeting approved the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of Zhejiang Province," which outlines: - Guiding ideology, basic requirements, main goals, and key tasks for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [2]. Six Major Breakthroughs and Six Enhancements - The specific goals include: - Major breakthroughs in building an innovative Zhejiang and modern industrial system, enhancing global competitiveness in high-tech and advanced manufacturing [3]. - Significant advancements in high-level cultural development, emphasizing the role of culture in enriching and benefiting the community [3]. - Major breakthroughs in urban-rural integration for high-quality development, ensuring a high-quality life for all [3]. - Enhanced ecological development, showcasing the unique beauty of Zhejiang [3]. - Modernization of governance systems and capabilities, promoting a vibrant and orderly society [3]. Key Tasks for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The meeting outlined ten key tasks for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, including: - Accelerating the construction of an innovative Zhejiang - Expanding high-level opening up - Deeply integrating and serving the new development pattern - Enhancing safety and legal frameworks in Zhejiang [3].

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines a strategic framework aimed at promoting high-quality economic development, emphasizing the construction of a modern industrial system and a unified national market [1][3]. Group 1: Modern Industrial System - The plan prioritizes the construction of a modern industrial system and the strengthening of the real economy as the first strategic task, with a focus on optimizing and upgrading traditional industries and developing emerging pillar industries [3]. Group 2: Domestic Market and Economic Structure - The plan emphasizes the need to eliminate barriers to the construction of a unified national market, aiming to unleash the potential of China's vast market and enhance the internal dynamics and reliability of domestic circulation [5]. - It calls for the acceleration of the establishment of a high-level socialist market economy system, enhancing the driving force for high-quality development [5]. - The plan advocates for the improvement of the socialist basic economic system and the macroeconomic governance system to ensure stable and sustainable high-quality development [5].

证监会11月14日消息，近日，中国证监会举办学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神宣讲报告会，中央宣讲 团成员，证监会党委书记、主席吴清作宣讲报告。 证监会11月14日消息，近日，中国证监会举办学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神宣讲报告会，中央 宣讲团成员，证监会党委书记、主席吴清作宣讲报告。 要 点 概 览 抓紧研究谋划"十五五"时期资本市场战略任务和重大举措 吴清围绕习近平总书记在党的二十届四中全会上的重要讲话精神和《中共中央关于制定国民经济和 社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》，从准确把握党的二十届四中全会的重大意义，深刻认识"十 四五"时期我国经济社会发展取得的新的重大成就，深刻领会"十五五"时期经济社会发展的指导思 想、重要原则、主要目标、战略任务和重大举措，以及坚持和加强党的全面领导，凝聚起推进中国 式现代化的磅礴力量等方面，结合资本市场工作实际，作了深入宣讲和系统阐释。 吴清表示，习近平总书记在全会上的重要讲话高屋建瓴、定向领航，明确了推动未来5年乃至更长 一段时期经济社会发展的一系列方向性、根本性重大问题，进一步深化了我们党对经济社会发展的 规律性认识，为推动高质量发展、推进中国式现代化提供了科学指南和重要 ...

Economic Growth Framework - The core task for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is to achieve a per capita GDP of approximately $29,000 by 2035, positioning China among "medium-developed countries" [2] - The bottom-line target for annual real GDP growth is set at 4.2%, while the consensus target suggests a compound GDP growth rate of around 4.4% over the next decade [2] - The expected economic growth rate for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is projected to be between 4.5% and 4.9%, with a likely internal control target of 4.8% to 5.0% for the upcoming year [2] New Growth Paradigm - The new growth paradigm emphasizes "dynamic iteration + moderate inflation + currency appreciation" as the driving forces for economic growth [1] - This paradigm shift is expected to fundamentally alter asset return characteristics and risk premiums, leading to a systematic outperformance of equity assets over fixed-income assets [1] - The transition in asset allocation is anticipated to move from a real estate-dominated structure to one centered around equity assets [1] Market Implications - The anticipated recovery in corporate profits, particularly in upstream cyclical industries, is expected to create structural opportunities in the stock market [3] - The bond market is likely to experience a rebound in interest rates as inflation indicators improve, with the yield curve expected to steepen [3] - The shift in asset attractiveness is projected to favor equities over real estate and fixed income, driven by improved earnings and valuation dynamics [3] Risks - Potential risks include volatility in overseas markets and uncertainties in domestic policy execution [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic direction for China's economic and social development over the next five years as outlined in the "15th Five-Year Plan" and emphasizes the importance of creating a favorable business environment to stimulate new productive forces and high-quality development [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Development Strategies - High-quality development should focus on developing new productive forces tailored to local conditions, with various business entities as the strategic basis [4][5]. - A first-class business environment is essential for stimulating the vitality of various business entities, which includes protecting property rights, providing industry subsidies, and ensuring labor protection [5][9]. - The construction of a transparent, stable, and predictable business environment is crucial, characterized by marketization, rule of law, and internationalization [5][10]. Group 2: Investment and Infrastructure - Effective investment opportunities are abundant at the local level, particularly in projects like sponge cities and comprehensive water system renovations, which require significant funding support [7][11]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for fixed asset investment growth to remain reasonable and stable, with a target investment growth rate of at least 3% to achieve economic growth goals [13]. - Investment should focus on "three new and one heavy" areas: new productive forces, new infrastructure, new urbanization, and major engineering projects, with significant potential in sectors like electricity, water conservancy, and ecological environment [13]. Group 3: Innovation and Intellectual Property - Protecting investors and intellectual property rights is vital for fostering innovation and new productive forces, with a supportive legal environment being a key component [9][10]. - A culture that tolerates failure and encourages entrepreneurship is necessary to enhance research and development investments and improve corporate investment efficiency [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, China's fiscal policy will maintain an active orientation and sufficient intensity to stabilize the economy and ensure people's livelihoods [3][4]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Orientation - The Minister of Finance, Lan Fo'an, stated that the "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on an active fiscal policy, enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, and determining deficit rates and debt scales based on changing circumstances [3][4]. - The core deployment of fiscal work in the "15th Five-Year Plan" is to enhance fiscal sustainability, marking a significant shift from previous plans that focused on tax system reforms [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Environment and Challenges - The article outlines that the development environment is facing profound and complex changes, including external instability and domestic economic pressures, which necessitate effective responses to capture opportunities from crises [4][5]. - The overall economic situation is characterized by a transition from old to new growth drivers, with significant downward pressure on the economy [5]. Group 3: Fiscal Expenditure and Debt Management - Recent years have seen weak fiscal revenue growth due to economic downturns, prompting the government to increase debt levels while maintaining fiscal expenditure intensity [6]. - China's government debt ratio was reported at 68.7% in 2024, which is significantly lower than that of major economies, indicating substantial room for further borrowing [6]. Group 4: Targeted Fiscal Support - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes precise fiscal efforts, focusing on high-quality development areas such as modern industrial systems, technology, education, social security, agriculture, and environmental protection [6][7]. - The plan calls for optimizing government investment structures to increase the proportion of investments in people's livelihoods and enhance public service spending [6][7]. Group 5: Policy Coordination - Lan Fo'an highlighted the importance of policy coordination, advocating for a systematic approach to design and implement fiscal policies that align with monetary, industrial, and regional policies to promote high-quality development [7].

Group 1 - The core task of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is to enhance domestic demand and promote economic growth, with new urbanization being a key driver for this initiative [1][2] - The proposal includes issuing "special bonds for new urbanization" to support infrastructure and public services in county-level cities, aiming to facilitate the integration of rural populations into modern economic life [1][2] - The plan emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to urbanization, focusing on county-level development and the equalization of basic public services [1][2] Group 2 - Local and county governments face significant debt pressures, which may hinder their investment in urbanization and public services; thus, utilizing national bonds to alleviate this pressure is suggested [2] - The establishment of specific, measurable KPIs for local governments is recommended to enhance accountability and motivate improvements in public service levels [2] - The development of counties is seen as crucial for urban-rural integration, with a focus on identifying and nurturing leading industries within these regions [3] Group 3 - The urbanization rate in China is projected to maintain around 0.7 percentage points during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, driven by the orderly integration of rural populations into urban settings [3]

粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒认为，"十五五"时期，我国经济整体上仍处于新旧动能转换期，经济面临 较大的下行压力，积极财政政策是托底宏观经济、稳定发展大局的重要手段。财政政策从过去较多关注 赤字率转向支出增速，打破3%赤字率约束，确保必要的支出力度，增强财政政策的逆周期调节作用。 要保持一定的财政支出增速，根据经济社会发展需要合理确定实际赤字率水平，逐步采用基于全部财政 收支的全口径赤字和赤字率来衡量财政政策积极程度。 "十五五"坚持财政政策积极取向，保持支出强度稳经济 "十五五"时期中国财政政策将继续保持积极取向，并保持一定力度，以稳经济保民生。 近日，财政部部长蓝佛安接受新华社采访，在谈及"十五五"时期发挥积极财政政策作用的考量时，首先 强调的是"力度要给足"。 他表示，"十五五"时期坚持积极取向，加强逆周期和跨周期调节，根据形势变化，合理确定赤字率和举 债规模，组合运用预算、税收、政府债券、转移支付等工具，用好政策空间，保持支出强度，形成对经 济社会发展的持续支撑。 近期《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下称"十五五"规划建议）对 财政工作部署的核心是，"发挥积极财政政策作用，增 ...