Group 1 - The small metal sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with cobalt, germanium, and tungsten leading the gains [1] - China’s tungsten industry is expected to see a long-term supply-demand tightness, with tungsten prices likely to rise systematically [1] - Global tungsten supply-demand balance has been in a shortage since 2021 and is expected to continue this trend from 2023 to 2027 [1] Group 2 - Cobalt supply is facing a rigid shortage, with the Democratic Republic of Congo's quota expected to reduce global cobalt supply to 200,000 tons [1] - Global cobalt consumption is projected to grow, reaching 221,000 tons and 231,000 tons in 2026 and 2027 respectively [1] - The supply of key metals is highly rigid, with mining expansion cycles lasting 3-5 years, and environmental regulations raising extraction thresholds [2] Group 3 - The Rare Metals ETF has seen a significant increase, with a latest scale of 1.162 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [2] - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past 10 days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 84.71 million yuan [2] - The ETF closely tracks the China Rare Metals Theme Index, with lithium, rare earths, and cobalt making up nearly 30% of its total weight [3]

贵金属2026年报 ——贵金属仍处上行通道， 拐点关注美联储政策变化与美国经济改善 汪楠 从业资格号：F3069002 投资咨询号：Z0017123 中航期货 2025-12-31 02 宏观面 目录 01 后市研判 03 基本面 后市PA研RT判01 Ø 2025年贵金属市场表现亮眼，黄金和白银均呈现加速上涨格局，不断突破历史新高。年内国际金价从2600美元/盎司上涨至最高4550美元/盎司 以上，涨幅70%以上；国际银价从29美元/盎司上涨至最高82美元/盎司上方，涨幅高达180%以上。2025年贵金属价格上涨的逻辑不断切换，从 上半年市场交易对等关税及美国经济衰退担忧带来的避险需求，到下半年交易降息预期带来的流动性宽松预期，叠加白银实物供需紧缺驱动 资金流入贵金属市场，价格加速上行，波动显著放大。在金价上涨的过程中，白银涨幅遥遥领先，实现了金银比的修复回归。 Ø 展望2026年，当前支撑贵金属价格上涨的逻辑并没有发生改变，贵金属仍处上行通道。美国财政货币双宽松的背景下，美元信用持续受损， 去美元化加速资产储备的多元化，全球央行延续购金将继续支撑金价，重点关注中国央行购金行为；而流动性宽松仍将是2026年 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the rare metals sector is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by factors such as the surge in lithium carbonate futures and the anticipated supply-demand inflection point in the lithium industry between 2026 and 2027 [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.38%, while the CS Rare Metals Index increased by 1.99%, with notable individual stock performances including Western Superconducting rising over 7% and Luoyang Molybdenum up over 3% [1] - The Rare Metals ETF (562800) saw a 2.02% increase, with a trading volume of 166 million yuan and a turnover rate of 3.73%, reflecting a 78.82% increase over the past six months and a 105.98% increase over the past year [1] Group 2 - Supply constraints for key metals like rare earths are becoming more pronounced, with mining expansion cycles lasting 3-5 years and increasing environmental and export control regulations raising extraction thresholds [2] - Current inventories of copper, lithium, and rare earths are at historical lows, making demand increases likely to trigger price elasticity [2] - The Rare Metals ETF (562800) tracks the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index, which includes no more than 50 companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of rare metals, with lithium and rare earths accounting for 33.67% and 24.63% of the index's weight, respectively [2]

摘要芝商所(CME)当地时间8日发出通知，将于当地时间1月9日盘后全面上调黄金、白银、铂金、钯金 期货品种的履约保证金，同时大部分天然气合约的保证金将被下调，芝商所称保证金的调整是基于对市 场波动性以确保充足的抵押品覆盖的审查做出的。这是其近一个月以来第三次发出此类通知，将上调贵 金属品种履约保证金。 芝商所(CME)当地时间8日发出通知，将于当地时间1月9日盘后全面上调黄金、白银、铂金、钯金期货 品种的履约保证金，同时大部分天然气合约的保证金将被下调，芝商所称保证金的调整是基于对市场波 动性以确保充足的抵押品覆盖的审查做出的。这是其近一个月以来第三次发出此类通知，将上调贵金属 品种履约保证金。 【要闻速递】 周四(1月8日)，美元指数连涨三日，盘中逼近99关口，最终收涨0.125%，报98.87；美债收益率普涨，基 准的10年期美债收益率最终收报4.173%，对美联储政策利率敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.498%。 现货黄金先跌后涨，收复了早些时候的失地，最终收涨0.50%，报4477.39美元/盎司；由于投资者正准 备迎接未来几天内价值数十亿美元的期货合约抛售潮，现货白银连续第二个交易日走低，一度下破74 ...

回望刚刚过去的2025年，如果要问什么东西涨价的最疯狂，相信所有人都会告诉你答案，这就是黄金，有媒体统计黄金去年一年创了50多次历史新高，统计 来看更是46年最大的涨幅，如此夸张的涨价，让人不禁想问今年黄金还会接着涨吗？ 一、金价一年创50多次历史新高 据央视财经的报道，2025年，大宗商品市场走势明显分化：贵金属领跑，能源板块承压。以黄金为例，金价创下了50多个历史新高，跑赢了美国的主要股指 和美元指数。背后的推动因素包括各国央行的购买、美联储降息的大环境、货币贬值交易的重燃、以及ETF资金的涌入等等。不容忽视的还有白银，2025年 COMEX白银期货的涨幅是黄金的两倍还多。而大宗商品板块，原油价格持续疲软。WTI和布伦特原油期货下挫的幅度均逼近20%。 据格隆汇的报道，2025年最后一个交易日金价下跌，但全年计，金价升64%，创1979年以来46年最大升幅。金价上升主要是美联储减息、地缘政治风险升 温、各国央行增持，以及资金持续流入黄金ETF交易所买卖基金等推动向上。 金融畅销书《货币战争》作者里卡斯(James Rickards)近期在媒体访问中预期，金价2026年底前有望冲上一万美元，白银亦可能上望2 ...

智通财经APP获悉，就美元而言，美国经济出人意料的韧性正在压倒美国总统特朗普掀起的地缘政治动 荡。在迈入新年之际，交易员加大了对美元的做空押注，认为随着美联储降息、美元将再次承压，从而 促使全球投资者将资金投向回报更高的市场。特朗普强行抓捕委内瑞拉领导人马杜罗、宣称对该国油田 拥有主权，并对其他国家发出威胁，这些举动看似会通过重新点燃对美国资产安全性的担忧，再度拉低 美元。 然而，美元却无视这些风险走强。外汇交易员几乎忽略了特朗普最新试图颠覆延续数十年的全球秩序的 举动。相反，随着数据显示美国就业市场放缓程度低于此前担忧，市场开始质疑美联储今年降息的幅 度，美元因此上涨。 本周美元的上行走势——即便可能只是短暂反弹——再次体现出在特朗普时代，华尔街预测市场方向的 难度之大。AGF Investments固定收益与外汇主管Tom Nakamura表示："我们脚下的地面经常在变化。无 论我们对全年有什么样的展望或判断，想要长期坚持下去都会非常具有挑战性。" 如此大规模的押注，可能使美元在就业市场未出现急剧放缓、担忧缓解后具备一定反弹空间。随着美国 国债收益率回升，美元也随之走高，在过去三天里持续上涨。 策略师Au ...

本周，现货黄金价格在经历两日上涨后，于7日下跌，8日再度下探。多位分析人士认为，近两日黄金价 格下跌，主要是此前上涨后的正常获利回吐所致，后续黄金价格偏强走势难改。 作为避险资产，黄金价格通常在低利率环境以及不确定性上升时走强。 中国央行也在增持黄金。数据显示，截至2025年12月末，中国央行黄金储备报7415万盎司，环比增加3 万盎司，为连续第14个月增持。 "中国央行持有黄金储备余额占同期外汇储备余额的比重约为9.5%，但仍然明显低于全球平均水平。"中 银证券全球首席经济学家管涛说。 业内专家认为，在国际金价持续大幅上涨、屡创历史新高的过程中，中国央行持续小幅增持黄金，释放 了优化国际储备的信号。未来，中国央行增持黄金仍有空间。 不过亦有机构警示短期风险。高盛观察到，近期现货黄金库存偏紧，可能引发剧烈波动和挤仓式上涨， 但随后可能出现回调。 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室发表观点称，当前金价已处于高位，若美联储意外转向，交易型开放式指 数基金(ETF)或出现大规模赎回，金价可能面临下行压力。 （中国新闻网） 一方面，市场关注到美国偏疲软的就业数据，强化了美联储将降息的预期，这是近期金价走强的重要背 景。另一方 ...

随着金价飙升和各国央行激进的购买潮，黄金已正式超越美国国债，三十年来首次成为全球最大的储备资产。这是全球金融体系的一个标志性时 刻，凸显了在财政可持续性担忧和地缘政治风险加剧的背景下，全球资本正加速向避险资产转移。 据世界黄金协会（WGC）最新数据，若假设年底央行持有的黄金储备规模不变，以年底价格计算，美国海外全球官方黄金储备价值已达3.93万亿 美元。这一数字正式超越了海外官方持有的长期和短期美债规模，后者截至10月份的价值接近3.88万亿美元。上一次外国机构持有的黄金规模超 过美债还要追溯到1996年。这一结构性转变不仅反映了金价的强劲上涨，更揭示了全球储备资产配置的深层调整。 此次逆转恰逢金价在年终反弹中及2026年开年的强劲表现。继2025年录得近70%的涨幅后，黄金在2026年首周延续涨势，一度触及4,500美元并维 持在该水平附近，单周上涨3.6%。地缘政治紧张局势持续提振其作为避险资产的吸引力。 分析人士指出，这标志着全球储备持有结构发生了根本性变化。NDR首席宏观策略师Joe Kalish指出，随着人们对法定货币的信任度降低，非美国 家持有的黄金储备价值正迅速追赶并最终超越其美债储备价值。这一 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the **gold market** and its pricing dynamics, particularly in the context of changing global economic conditions and geopolitical risks. Core Insights and Arguments - **Traditional Gold Pricing Model Failure**: Post-2022, the explanatory power of U.S. real interest rates on gold prices has weakened due to high inflation potentially underestimating real rates, and structural demand from central banks has altered pricing logic [1][3] - **Central Bank Gold Purchases Reflecting Dollar Trust Crisis**: The freezing of Russian reserve assets by the U.S. and Europe has impacted the global credit system, leading to increased gold purchases as countries seek to hedge against dollar instability [1][4] - **Emerging Economies Increasing Gold Holdings**: Emerging markets are reducing dollar assets and increasing gold holdings to address uncertainties in development and security, with the People's Bank of China being a significant player in this trend from 2022 to 2024 [1][8] - **Geopolitical Risks Driving Gold Demand**: Ongoing conflicts and trade tensions have heightened gold's appeal as a safe haven, prompting central banks to shift from short-term hedging to long-term strategies [1][10] - **U.S. Policy Uncertainty Impacting Dollar Stability**: Increased political polarization in the U.S. has led to uncertainty in foreign policy, undermining the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [1][11] Additional Important Content - **Gold's Share in Central Bank Assets**: Although currently low compared to historical highs, the proportion of gold in central bank assets has been rising since 2014, indicating strong future demand [1][12] - **Future Gold Price Trends**: The supply-demand dynamics suggest that as long as strong demand from central banks persists, gold prices are likely to remain high or even increase further [1][6] - **Emerging Market Strategies**: Emerging economies are collectively increasing gold reserves as a strategy to catch up with developed economies and mitigate risks associated with the dollar [1][9] - **China's Role in Gold Price Support**: China's central bank's significant gold purchases and the allowance for insurance companies to invest in gold are expected to provide ongoing support for gold prices [2][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in gold and silver prices, highlighting the significant drop in the gold-silver ratio, which is an important indicator of economic conditions and asset allocation strategies [1][2][4]. Price Movements - As of January 8, gold prices fell to $4413 per ounce, a decrease of 0.96%, while silver prices dropped to $74.6 per ounce, down 4.76% [1][2]. - The gold-silver ratio has fallen below 60, currently around 59, marking a significant decline from a high of 103 in April 2025 [2][4]. Historical Context - The last time the gold-silver ratio fell below 60 was in September 2010, and it reached a low of below 40 in 2011 before recovering [2]. - Historically, the gold-silver ratio has been a key indicator of macroeconomic cycles, often rising during economic crises and falling during recoveries [6][8]. Economic Indicators - The gold-silver ratio is correlated with the Juglar cycle, which describes medium-term investment and capacity fluctuations, indicating economic volatility [3][8]. - A higher gold-silver ratio suggests that gold may be overvalued, while a lower ratio indicates that silver may be undervalued [4][12]. Investment Strategies - The article emphasizes the importance of the gold-silver ratio in asset allocation, suggesting that investors can optimize returns by adjusting their holdings based on this ratio [11][12]. - Wealth management institutions are increasingly focusing on precious metal investment products, indicating a growing interest in gold and silver as core assets [11]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the gold-silver ratio will likely oscillate within a range of 40 to 80, moving away from its previous high levels [11][14]. - The current economic environment, characterized by a shift towards new production capacities and policies, is expected to influence silver demand significantly [8][9].