作 者丨易佳颖 见习记者李益文 编 辑丨骆一帆 6月9日，潮玩龙头泡泡玛特（09992.HK）股价盘中触及253港元历史峰值，当日报收250.8港元/股，日内涨幅达 2.45%。 王宁曾说，创业就是刚开始做A，最后做成了B，然后莫名其妙的有一天在C成功，但是也许你会在D变得伟大。在不 断变化中，也有王宁始终坚守不变的，他自己总结道， "尊重时间，尊重经营。" 不可忽视的是，王宁在几次关键选择背后的理性思考，从Sonny Angel的营收数据占比中窥见潮玩市场的前景，果断选 择押注，再到如今对于不同IP的孵化与经营，也依然是凭市场数据说话。（→ 详情 ） 基金加大布局 同花顺iFinD显示，2023年末，仅有 12家 基金重仓泡泡玛特，但2025年一季度末，这一数据已激增至 180家 ，持股总 市值为87.79亿元。 从持股数量来看，180只持股基金中，共计有19家基金持股份额超过100万股。其中，农冰立管理的景顺长城品质长青 混合A（010350）持有322.26万股，为当前持股数最多的基金。 资料显示，农冰立自2023年7月接管景顺长城品质长青混合A后，逐步减持贵州茅台等传统消费股，加码新消费。2024 年 ...

Core Viewpoint - Both Bank of America and UBS have downgraded the rating of Mixue Ice City (02097.HK) due to high valuations and unsatisfactory overseas business expansion, indicating limited long-term growth potential [2][3]. Valuation Concerns - UBS downgraded Mixue Ice City from "Neutral" to "Sell," while Bank of America lowered its rating from "Neutral" to "Underperform" [3]. - UBS set a target price of approximately 477 HKD, while Bank of America adjusted its target price from 400 HKD to 465 HKD [3]. - As of June 9, Mixue Ice City's stock closed at 565.5 HKD, indicating a potential downside of 18.6% compared to UBS's target price [3]. Business Performance and Growth - Bank of America noted that recent sales growth was supported by unsustainable delivery platform subsidies, which may negatively impact future performance comparisons [4]. - The company's gross margin is under pressure, with expectations of a decline to around 30.5% in 2025, down from a stable range of 28.9% to 32.5% from 2021 to 2024 [4]. - Both banks expressed low expectations for Mixue Ice City's overseas business, predicting a decrease in overseas revenue contribution from 5.2% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025 [4]. Competitive Landscape - Mixue Ice City faces intense competition in overseas markets, particularly in Indonesia and Vietnam, which has led to lower-than-expected recovery [4]. - Bank of America highlighted operational challenges and a lack of attractive pricing in its overseas business [5]. Market Dynamics - The new consumption sector, which includes Mixue Ice City, is experiencing crowded trading, with significant stock price increases for peers like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold [6]. - Mixue Ice City's market capitalization reached approximately 214.7 billion HKD as of June 9, 2023 [6]. Future Outlook - Despite valuation pressures, UBS forecasts a strong growth momentum in Mixue Ice City's domestic business, projecting a 15% annual store growth rate over the next 3-4 years, aiming for a total of 70,000 stores by 2028 [7].

Group 1 - Foreign institutions are optimistic about China's economic prospects, with major banks like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Deutsche Bank raising their GDP growth forecasts for 2025 [1][2] - Deutsche Bank has adjusted its 2025 GDP growth forecast for China to 4.7%, citing strong resilience in the service sector and retail, supported by ongoing monetary and fiscal policies [2] - Morgan Stanley and other institutions have also raised their growth predictions, indicating a positive impact from recent government policies aimed at boosting the economy [2] Group 2 - Foreign institutions are increasing their research efforts on A-share companies, particularly in the hard technology sector, with 234 foreign institutions having researched 195 A-share companies since May [6][7] - Notable companies attracting attention include Optoelectronics, Lanke Technology, and Huadian Co., with over 30 foreign institutions conducting in-depth research on them [7] - Companies are focusing on international expansion and innovation, with examples like Huadian Co. ramping up production capabilities in Thailand and Lanke Technology aiming to become a leading chip design company [7] Group 3 - There is a collective bullish sentiment towards the Chinese stock market, driven by improving fundamentals and increased investor confidence [4] - HSBC and Morgan Stanley highlight the potential for increased capital inflows into Chinese stocks, particularly in the technology and consumer sectors [4][5] - High-quality growth and deep value stocks are favored, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy support and consumer demand [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has entered a technical bull market, with the three major indices (Hang Seng, Hang Seng Tech, and Hang Seng China Enterprises) rebounding over 20% from their April lows, and all showing year-to-date gains exceeding 20% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The year-to-date performance of the three indices is as follows: Hang Seng Index +20.55%, Hang Seng Tech Index +21.60%, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index +20.44% [2]. - The median increase across 28 industry indices in the Hang Seng is around 10%, with sectors like pharmaceuticals, technology, and new consumption leading the gains [4]. Group 2: Economic Cycles - Key economic cycles influencing the market include unprecedented low interest rates and policy easing for insurance capital equity investments, which have been discussed extensively [6]. - The rebound in the platform economy and supportive policies for the home appliance sector have benefited major internet companies like Xiaomi and JD.com, while companies like Pinduoduo have struggled due to lack of support [4]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The biotechnology index has seen significant gains, with the Hong Kong-listed biotechnology index up by 55.17%, and other indices like the new economy index and technology index also showing strong performance [5]. - The previous bull market from early 2019 to early 2021 was characterized by a surge in technology stocks, while the current market is more balanced across various sectors, including new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals [7]. Group 4: Investment Insights - Recent trends indicate a strong performance in the AI sector, particularly in the ChiNext AI index, which has outperformed the Sci-Tech Innovation Board AI index [21][25]. - The recent surge in the innovative pharmaceutical sector is attributed to government policies aimed at improving public health and accelerating the approval of innovative drugs [27]. Group 5: International Relations and Market Sentiment - Ongoing discussions between the US and China are progressing, particularly regarding rare earth exports, which have seen a month-on-month increase of nearly 23% [29]. - The overall market sentiment is improving, with the S&P 500 reaching 6000 points, indicating a rise in global risk appetite [30].

首先，受全球多元化需求推动，客户较以往更愿意增加中国股票头寸。"我们接触的大多数全球投资者 都明确表达了重新增加对中国的敞口的兴趣。"她在报告中表示。 【导读】全球投资者增配中国意愿增强，新技术和新商业模式最受关注 摩根士丹利中国首席股票策略师王滢(Laura Wang)在6月8日发布的研究报告中指出，全球投资者对中国 的情绪改善，相较于过去，他们增配中国的意愿增强，对科技和新消费行业的信心增强。在中国股票内 部，她重申相对更看好港股和ADR(美国存托凭证)的观点。 全球投资者配置意愿增强 王滢在报告中总结了客户对中国市场的态度变化。 王滢认为，2025年截至目前，港股和美国上市的存托凭证的表现超越A股。数据显示，截至2025年6月6 日，沪深300指数年初至今下跌1.5%，同期恒生指数和MSCI中国指数则分别上涨19%和16%，尽管A股 和港股市场很大程度上受到同一宏观变量影响。在王滢看来，下述因素导致在岸和离岸市场表现分化。 首先，与AI和新消费相关的个股，特别是大盘股多在港股市场上市。与此同时，部分受青睐的A股公司 选择来港股进行双重上市，如2024年底的美的和今年的其他例子。因此，从个股机会角度来看， ...

今天，半夏投资掌门人、知名私募基金经理李蓓在微信公众号发文，针对投资人提问的"错过了什么或 者做错了什么"，她表示，自己错过了小微盘，错过了新消费、科技和创新药，所以权益类的涨幅比较 平庸。 在这篇文章中，李蓓提出了四个问题： 1.我的优势和不足是什么？ 2.基于以上，我错过了什么？我做错了什么？ 3.我的优势是否还在，还能继续？我的不足能否和如何改进？ 4.后续我打算怎么做？ 我认为，上述四个问题对于错过行情的投资者而言，是一个很好的反思模板。 对于科技、细分消费和医药领域，李蓓表示，她没有深度研究，于是基本不投资，这一点是深度思考后 主动取舍的结果。"科技、细分消费和医药的研究与宏观研究没有协同性，对宏观判断没有帮助，需要 的研究深度和时间投入又相当可观。考虑到术业有专攻，有限的时间精力下，最好只做自己擅长的事 情，我主动放弃了。" 李蓓还提到，她需要改进的方面包括：增加对外资的理解；提高选股标准，不能只抓行业beta，需要选 择有alpha的公司；更加强调持仓的安全性和赔率，而不仅仅看趋势和弹性。 沪深两市成交额12864亿元，较前一个交易日放量1344亿元。整个市场有超过4000只个股上涨，个股涨 跌 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the current market pattern where Sino-US relations are marginally easing, aggregate policies remain stable, the macro - fundamentals are structurally pressured, and liquidity is stable without significant easing, the market will mainly fluctuate, and structural opportunities will dominate the trading rhythm [7] - It is recommended to adopt a "reverse layout" strategy, cashing in when the sector rises sharply and laying out when the sector adjusts [7] Summary by Directory Market Observation - Impact of Sino - US Leaders' Phone Call - The Sino - US leaders' phone call injected stabilizing factors into bilateral relations, and the probability of short - term risk escalation is low [5] - Sino - US structural differences still exist, and the actual implementation of Trump's visit to China is complex with low short - term possibility [5] - The negotiation paths of the two sides are different, and there may be "asymmetric concessions" on structural issues in subsequent negotiations, with the US likely to make larger concessions [5] - The main reason for the Trump administration's possible strategic concessions is the balance between industrial chain pressure and election interests [5] Investment Recommendations - New consumption sector: It is recommended to realize phased profits and avoid the risk of chasing high due to signs of reaching a high level and shareholder reduction announcements [7] - Safe assets (such as gold, military, rare earths, nuclear power equipment): They have medium - term allocation value as some valuations have corrected and the institutional position - adjustment stage is nearing completion [7] - AI and semiconductor in the technology chain: Pay attention to the Hang Seng Tech Index, Chinese server, computing infrastructure, and some semiconductor equipment companies, which are driven by both theme catalysis and low - level repair [7] - High - dividend/bonus assets: It is recommended to continue holding some high - dividend, public utility, and bond - like assets, suitable as the bottom - position allocation for a neutral and defensive portfolio [7] Market Review Market Performance - Most major market indices rose last week, with the ChiNext Index rising 2.32% [10][17] - Among major industries, the information technology and materials indices performed relatively well, rising 3.72% and 2.64% respectively; the public utility and optional consumption indices performed weakly, falling 0.22% and 0.14% respectively [10][17] - Among 30 Shenwan primary industries, 24 industries rose. The top - rising industries were communication, non - ferrous metals, and electronics, rising 5.27%, 3.74%, and 3.60% respectively; the top - falling industries were household appliances, food and beverages, and transportation, falling 1.79%, 1.06%, and 0.54% respectively [10][19] Trading Heat - The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index last week was 1208.854 billion yuan (previous value: 1093.905 billion yuan), at a relatively high historical level (83.00% of the three - year historical quantile) [10][22] Valuation Tracking - As of June 6, 2025, the valuation (PE_TTM) of the Wind All - A Index was 19.18, up 0.13 from last week, at the 68.50% quantile in the past five years [28] - Among 30 Shenwan primary industries, 24 industries' valuations (PE_TTM) showed repair [28] Economic Calendar - This week, domestic economic data to be released include China's CPI year - on - year, PPI year - on - year, import and export year - on - year in US dollars, and trade balance in US dollars [30] - Overseas economic data to be released include the US unadjusted CPI year - on - year, PPI year - on - year, and the eurozone trade balance in euros [30]

热点聚焦 107家私募狂买ETF，招商利安新兴亚洲精选ETF份额暴增！ 私募排排网数据显示，截至6月8日，今年来已有107家私募旗下产品现身年内上市的252只ETF前十大持有人，总持有份额 达18.61亿份。 年内买上市ETF数量在10只以上的私募分别是：铸锋资产(21只)、景弘基金(16只)、众壹资产(14只)、上海秉昊私募(10只)、 思勰投资(10只)。 数据显示，在所有年内上市的ETF中，私募持有份额超3000万份的ETF有24只，合计10.66亿份。其中，"招商利安新兴亚洲 精选ETF（QDII）"的持有份额位居第1，达8653.23亿份，占场内总份额比例的8.66%。另外，"大成中证全指自由现金流 ETF"被恒泰融安、上海秉昊私募、上海鹤禧私募、科瑞菲亚4家私募持有，合计持有份额为6800.29万份，占场内总份额比 例的6.26%，位居第2。 明显的泡沫？新消费分歧：百亿私募喊话泡沫明显，公募持续布局，该信谁？ 尽管新消费板块带来了亮眼的收益，但股价接连新高下，市场分歧也来了。"港股三朵金花"两涨一跌：泡泡玛特今天的股 价从新高走向新高；同样是股价飙升的蜜雪冰城新进港股通标的；老铺黄金则失守900 ...

市场行情保持较高热度，私募证券行业迎来一轮产品备案热潮。 私募排排网数据显示，今年前5个月私募行业累计备案私募证券产品达4361只，较去年同期增长 45.03%；5月单月备案产品数量达到870只，同比增幅高达77.19%。 沪上一位机构人士告诉记者，私募产品供给端发力的主要驱动因素是A股市场企稳回升，在人工智能、 新消费、创新药等赛道接连活跃背景下，市场风险偏好显著提升。 今年前5个月私募行业累计备案私募证券产品达4361只，较去年同期增长45.03%。 除了供给端回暖，私募机构正加速布局ETF市场。 "监管环境持续优化也是私募新发市场回暖的一大主因，"融智投资FOF基金经理李春瑜认为，随着私募 行业合规体系的进一步完善，信息披露透明度提高，运作规范性增强，为市场参与方提供了更加稳定、 可预期的发展环境。 供给端发力，年内私募备案破4000只 具体看来，这轮私募备案热情持续始于3月份，每个月新发同比均有增加。 其中，3月分私募备案数量1043只，较2月份的546只增长约一倍，同比增幅更是高达89%；4月备案数量 达到1170只，成为年内备案数量最高的月份。此外到了5月，私募备案数量达到870只，尽管较4月份峰 ...

6月9日，随着布鲁可、古茗和蜜雪集团被调入港股通标的生效，三只新消费个股均大涨，其中布鲁可上 涨达22.34%，总市值超过480亿港元，今年上市以来上涨76.37%。古茗和蜜雪集团均上涨超过4%，总市 值分别超650亿和超2000亿港元，上市以来上涨达176.5%和115.84%。 这一调整意味着内地投资者可以直接通过港股通机制投资这些新消费龙头，无需绕道香港市场，为这些 公司带来了增量资金的注入。 Wind数据显示，被调入港股通名单时间，布鲁可用了99个交易日，古茗用了79个交易日，而蜜雪集团 仅用了66个交易日。 深交所发布关于深港通下港股通标的调整的通知。因恒生综合中型股指数实施成份股调整，根据《深圳 证券交易所深港通业务实施办法》的有关规定，港股通标的证券名单发生调整，调入布鲁可(00325)、 古茗(01364)、蜜雪集团(02097)，自2025年06月09日起生效。 | 代码 | 简称 | 调整方向 | | --- | --- | --- | | 00325 | 布鲁可 | 调入 | | 01364 | 古落 | 调入 | | 02097 | 蜜雪集团 | 调入 | ● 估值偏高 蜜雪集团的动态 ...