中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 中美关税博弈剧烈，流动性危机没有解除，黄金价格短期或有反复。长期看， | | | 高位调整 | 美国关税核弹开启另一个混乱纪元，未来变数较大，长期不确定困扰仍在，短 | | | | 期等待调整结束，长期战略配置价值仍存【700-728】 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 逻辑延续，关税冲击尚未结束，全球市场继续交易经济衰退，交易"滞"逻辑， 白银年后涨幅居首，故关税落地价格调整幅度较大，目前价格跌入前期的震荡 | | | | 区间附近，操作上等待企稳，不接刀子。【7500-7900】 | | 铜 | 延续回落 | 全球经济和金融危机担忧爆发，中方对美强硬反制后，特朗普威胁再度加码 50% 关税，市场恐慌情绪暂时难以缓解，铜延续回落，短期多空双杀，建议暂时观望， | | | | 不要火中取栗。沪铜关注区间【70000，75000】 | | 锌 | 承压回落 | 前期锌高位空单继续持有，中长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会，沪锌关注区 | | | | 间【21800，22800】 | | 铅 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250408 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 海外方面，在对等关税落地生效前，关税博弈牵动全球市场。特朗普称不会暂停对等关 税措施，拒绝欧盟提议的互免关税政策，但对谈判持开放态度；若中国不取消上周对美国产 品加征的 34%关税，威胁对华再额外加征 50%关税。美盘市场波动加剧、避险交易暂时缓 和，美元指数回升至 103.5，10Y 美债利率从 3.87%回升至 4.2%，纳指震荡收涨，金价下跌 1.8%、伦铜创下 16 个月新低、油价创下近 4 年新低。 国内方面，A 股在假期贸易冲突升级、全球衰退预期下补跌，上证指数跌破 3100 关口 （-7.3%），中证 1000、创业板指、北证 50 跌幅分别为 11.4%、12.5%、18%，两市成交额 回升至 1.6 万亿，行业上仅在中国出口反制下的农业板块收涨。特朗普威胁对华再加征 50% 关税，在幅度上对贸易影响边际减弱，但意味着中美贸易脱钩缓和余地在骤降，隔夜美股止 跌但中概股跌幅调整超 5%，短期国内风险 ...

Market Performance - A-shares opened significantly lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 4.46%, Shenzhen Component Index down 5.96%, and ChiNext Index down 6.77% [5] - The North China Stock Index opened with a sharp decline of 7.04% [4] - The Hong Kong stock market also experienced a severe drop, with the Hang Seng Index down 9.28% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 11.15% [11] Sector Performance - All major sectors in A-shares saw declines, with communication equipment, components, general machinery, and non-ferrous metals all dropping over 7% [7] - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector showed relative resilience, with a decline of less than 1% [8] Impact of US Tariff Policy - The US tariff policy continues to impact global financial markets, leading to significant declines in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2][10] - The tariff policy is viewed as a tool for negotiation and coercion by the US, affecting various sectors in China, particularly electronics, light industry, and textiles [15][17] - The electronics sector, which accounts for 20% of China's exports to the US, is expected to face pressure due to the tariffs [17] Export Dependencies - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors have a high dependency on exports to the US, with 25% of their total exports expected to be directed to the US in 2024 [18] - The automotive parts and home appliance sectors also have significant exposure to the US market and are likely to be heavily impacted by the tariffs [20]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 关税超预期：经济、政策、债市影响几何？ ——债券周报 20250406 一、关税超预期：经济、政策、债市影响几何？ 北京时间 4 月 3 日凌晨美国宣布对等关税征收方案，其中对华对等关税加征 34%，叠加 2 月、3 月落地两次报复性加征关税"10%+10%"，对华累计加征关 税 54%，高于市场此前预期。 1、关税影响测算：或拖累名义 GDP 约 1.5~2.2pct。参考市场和学术主流观点， 中国对美出口金额的弹性系数约为-1.0 至-1.5。54%关税加征或对总出口拖累 7.9%-11.9%、下拉名义 GDP 约 1.5pct-2.2pct。由于暂未考虑部分出口需求或转 向非美经济体带来的抵消效应，实际冲击可能低于上述测算结果。 2、国内政策应对：经济下行压力加大，"稳增长"诉求回归。 （1）财政需要多少规模对冲？结合测算，54%关税对应下拉名义 GDP 约 1.5- 2.2pct、拖累经济总量 2.0-3.0 万亿。参考财政乘数 1.0-1.5，则对应需要 1.3 万 亿-3.0 万亿财政资金进行对冲，均值约为 2.18 万亿。 （2）国内政策组合如何演绎？节奏上 ...

Global Market Performance - Global stock markets experienced significant declines over the past week, with all 19 major indices falling, particularly the Italian FTSE MIB and Nasdaq, which dropped over 10% [3] - The S&P 500, Nikkei 225, German DAX, and French CAC40 also saw declines exceeding 5%, while China's A-share Shanghai Composite Index was the most resilient, only slightly down by 0.28% [3] Technology Sector Impact - Major technology companies, including Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, and Facebook, faced substantial losses, each dropping over 10% in the past week, with Apple hitting a nearly one-year low and others reaching six-month lows [6] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market experienced volatility, particularly in metals and energy, with COMEX silver and copper plunging over 14%. NYMEX crude oil and ICE Brent oil fell by 10.15% and 9.21%, respectively, while gold remained relatively stable with a decline of less than 2% [9] Tariff Policy Analysis - Analysts suggest that the "reciprocal tariffs" may signal the beginning of a new wave of market turmoil rather than a resolution, emphasizing that the focus should be on negotiation rather than the direct economic impact of tariffs [11] - China's position in the tariff negotiations is strengthening due to its industrial upgrades and international expansion, allowing it to focus on its economic development without being overly influenced by U.S. tariff policies [11] Economic Outlook and Ratings Adjustments - UBS Global Wealth Management downgraded its rating on U.S. stocks from "attractive" to "neutral," significantly lowering the S&P 500 year-end target from 6400 to 5800 points due to profit forecast and valuation risks [12] - Other investment banks, including Barclays and Deutsche Bank, warned that continued implementation of tariffs could increase the risk of a recession in the U.S. economy this year [12]

Core Viewpoint - India is implementing a significant tax reduction plan on over half of its imports from the U.S., valued at approximately $23 billion, in response to the impending tariffs announced by President Trump, aiming to protect its $66 billion export market to the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - India plans to reduce tariffs on 55% of U.S. imported goods, with current rates ranging from 5% to 30% [2] - The Indian government is negotiating to reach an agreement before the implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. [2] - The Indian government is considering broader tariff reforms to unify and lower trade barriers, although these discussions are still in early stages [2][3] Group 2: Economic Impact - If the U.S. implements reciprocal tariffs, 87% of India's exports to the U.S. (valued at $66 billion) could be affected, with potential tariff increases of 6-10 percentage points on key products [1] - Key exports at risk include pharmaceuticals and automobiles, valued at $11 billion, which heavily rely on the U.S. market [1] Group 3: Political Considerations - The Indian government is cautious about not compromising national interests in the negotiations, with clear red lines set for discussions [3][4] - The Indian Trade Minister emphasized that while India seeks to maintain its trade relationship with the U.S., it will not sacrifice domestic interests [4] Group 4: Tariff Structures - The average tariff rate in the U.S. is 2.2%, while India's average tariff rate stands at 12%, highlighting a significant disparity in trade policies [4] - The U.S. has labeled India as a "tariff abuser," which adds pressure on India to negotiate favorable terms [4] Group 5: Market Dynamics - The negotiations are critical as they could influence hundreds of billions in trade flows, with the U.S. pushing for more substantial concessions from India [5]