伊朗迈赫尔通讯社1月3日报道，伊朗经济专家萨达特·侯赛尼表示，尽管伊朗海关数据显示石化、钢 铁、矿产等非石油产品出口有所增长，但外汇市场实际情况和中央银行可动用外汇储备情况，却揭示了 外汇不平衡和短缺情况。约960亿美元出口外汇收入未能回流国家经济体系，不仅削弱了国家经济抵御 制裁冲击的能力，还减少了外汇市场的有效供应，造成外汇市场的剧烈波动。该问题的根源不仅是出口 商的个人贪婪，缺失国际支付体系和透明的资金结算基础设施也是重要因素。近年来，伊朗综合外汇交 易系统（NIMA）未能为中央银行提供外汇资金流动的监控作用，仅仅起到信息登记功能。这种结构性 漏洞使得非法出口商利用廉价能源补贴和劳动力出口最终产品，却将其外汇收入保留在国家经济体系之 外，这种资金未回流情况对国家经济安全产生负面影响。这些外汇资源的相当一部分，或滞留特定贸易 目的地，或以资本外流的形式未能回流国内。这意味着，即使国家账面出口额很高，但也缺乏足够的优 质外汇用于进口生产所需的基本商品和原材料。国家的重要资源被出口，但资金却无法回流以满足进口 需求，导致通货膨胀和生产停滞，并为社会造成沉重负担。这种压力使政府陷入两难境地：要么接受汇 率贬值， ...

——美国突袭委内瑞拉影响快评 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 美委地缘扰动不改中国出海大势 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 05 日 | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | --- | --- | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 曹靖楠 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.c ...

俄罗斯关于在远东地区设立国际超前发展区的联邦法律2026年1月1日生效，国际超前发展区建设正式启 动。 这个政策覆盖5个行政主体，包括滨海边疆区、哈巴罗夫斯克边疆区、阿穆尔州、外贝加尔边疆区、犹 太自治州，全部位于中俄边境线上。 俄罗斯开出了极为优惠的招商条件，监管规定15年不变，提供长达十年的免税周期，商业信息全面保 护。光是税收优惠这一条，就能打动很多人了。 入驻门槛不低，退出难度更大 入驻国际超前发展区的企业最低投资额为5亿卢布，约合4400万元人民币。中小企业根本没机会去，俄 罗斯也没有耐心培养小公司，一上来就要资金实力雄厚的中大型公司才有入驻资格。 哈喽，大家好，今天小墨这篇评论，主要来分析俄远东国际超前发展区正式对华开放，十年免税背后的 投资逻辑。 俄罗斯远东和北极发展部长切昆科夫指出，远东地区吸引中国投资的优势在于其与中国邻近的地理条 件、前所未有的优惠政策、远东发展基金的支持以及可靠的法律保障。 客观地来讲，俄罗斯远东的营商环境是远远不如中国东北的。因为它的基础设施太落后了，当地很多地 方连公路、铁路都不通，只能依赖于中小型飞机交通。这个成本就太高了。 投资东北比投资远东更划算 更好的方式是把 ...

在美国与中亚五国召开峰会一个月后，日本政府于12月19日至20日同中亚五国举行领导人峰会——该议 程原定于2024年8月举行，但因地震影响，时任首相岸田文雄取消了前往哈萨克斯坦与会的计划。 此次日本-中亚峰会值得关注的重点主要有两方面。 其一，是峰会举办的时机。当前，外相高市早苗在外交层面面临诸多挑战，可谓阻力重重。此时举行峰 会，究竟是为"紧跟美国步调"，还是意在打破外交僵局、打开新局面？ 其二，是日本举办此次峰会的目的。中亚五国一贯采取"平衡外交"策略，今年以来已与多个大国举行首 脑会谈。对中亚各国而言，吸引投资、加强贸易合作、推动对外窗口多元化是其核心诉求；而对大国来 说，中亚的能源与关键矿产资源具有重要战略价值。 然而，共同社在相关报道中多次提及俄乌冲突及中国动向。12月17日，官房长官木原稔在记者会上阐述 日本-中亚峰会的意义时强调，双方将"作为维护和加强基于法治的国际秩序的伙伴，推动地区自主与可 持续发展"。 日方通过媒体释放此类信号，显然具有其政治意图，但这与中亚国家自身的定位与诉求之间存在明 显"温差"——为何日本要在会前释放这样的政治信号？ 针对上述问题，观察者网特邀上海外国语大学日本研究中 ...

Core Insights - Chancay Port celebrated its first anniversary as a new hub in the South Pacific, handling over 270,000 TEUs and 289 vessels, with 67% being container cargo and 33% general cargo [1] - The port's foreign trade volume reached $1.88 billion, with imports at $1.161 billion and exports at $718 million during the same period [1] - The port collected 821.6 million soles in customs duties from January to October 2025, with key trade products including minerals, fishmeal, avocados, grapes, and blueberries for exports, and heavy machinery, solar panels, appliances, and grains for imports [1] Investment and Economic Impact - The first phase of investment totaled $1.3 billion, creating 7,500 jobs during construction and 830 jobs during operation [2] - Real estate values in the region have increased more than threefold due to the port's development [2] - A social development fund was established to allocate 20% of customs revenue from the province to address infrastructure and public service gaps [2] Future Outlook - The port aims to solidify its position as a regional trade center and national development engine, with plans to improve connectivity in the next phase [2] - Transportation time between Peru and Asia has been reduced by 10 to 15 days, enhancing the competitiveness of Peruvian products and lowering import costs [2] - Total cargo volume is expected to reach 352,591 TEUs by the end of 2025, surpassing the initial target of 350,000 TEUs [1]

Core Insights - Hainan Province has seen rapid growth in foreign investment, with 296 new foreign investment enterprises and an actual investment amount of $3.17 billion in the first ten months of the year, representing year-on-year increases of 43% and 42.6% respectively, ranking 8th in the country [1][2] Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - The increase in foreign investment is attributed to favorable policies such as tax exemptions on overseas direct investment and the establishment of Hainan Free Trade Port accounts, which have accelerated the pace of investment by well-known enterprises [1] - Southeast Asian countries have become significant destinations for Hainan's foreign investment, with over $5.4 billion invested from 2020 to October 2025, accounting for 41.7% of Hainan's total foreign investment [1] Group 2: Trade and Economic Cooperation - Hainan Free Trade Port has established an open policy and institutional system characterized by "zero tariffs, low tax rates, and simplified tax systems," which will enhance the competitiveness of agricultural products and raw materials from global southern countries entering Hainan [2] - The port is expanding its international logistics capabilities, with 74 container international shipping routes and 82 civil aviation routes, facilitating the entry of tropical fruits from Southeast Asia, minerals from Africa, and coffee from Latin America into the Chinese market [2] - Hainan's goods trade import and export volume is projected to grow by 20% year-on-year in 2024, ranking 4th in the country, while service trade is expected to increase by 23.9% [2] - Unique processing and value-added tax exemption policies allow primary products from global southern countries to be processed into high-value goods and enter the Chinese mainland market without tariffs, enhancing industrial cooperation [2]

Group 1 - Canada's diplomatic strategy has shifted from containment of China to seeking cooperation, with Prime Minister Carney acknowledging China as an important strategic partner [1][6] - The economic pressure faced by Canada, particularly in the agricultural sector, has driven this strategic change, as Canadian canola exports to China have significantly declined [5][11] - The relationship between Canada and the U.S. is strained, as evidenced by Trump's immediate termination of trade negotiations following Carney's statements, indicating a potential rift within Western alliances [3][8] Group 2 - Canada's previous alignment with U.S. policies against China is now seen as a misstep, as China is a major trading partner for many countries, including Canada [6][12] - The potential for cooperation between Canada and China is significant, especially in agricultural and commodity sectors where both countries have complementary needs [6][11] - Other Western nations, like Australia and Germany, are also reassessing their strategies and relationships with China, indicating a broader trend of countries prioritizing national interests over rigid alliances [8][12] Group 3 - The failure of U.S. sanctions against China has prompted Canada and other allies to reconsider their positions, as they face their own economic challenges [9][14] - For Canada to successfully re-engage with China, it may need to lift restrictions on Chinese electric vehicles and adopt more flexible trade practices [11][14] - The current global landscape emphasizes cooperation over confrontation, with countries urged to recognize the importance of mutual benefits in international trade [14][16]

Core Insights - The China-Europe Railway Express (Xi'an) has achieved a record of over 5,000 trips in the first ten months of the year, marking a 16.3% year-on-year increase, with a total of 5,063 trips [1] - The railway has transported a total of 5.564 million tons of goods, reflecting a 12.9% increase, and sent 505,000 TEUs, which is a 10.5% rise compared to the previous year [1] - The cargo structure has been upgraded, with high-value products such as electronic components, auto parts, and machinery increasingly dominating the shipments [1] Group 1 - The railway has opened 18 international transport main lines and 26 "+West Europe" routes, achieving full coverage of major cargo sources in Asia and Europe [1] - The logistics model between China and Kazakhstan has improved, reducing the cargo transfer time at the border from two to three days to just three hours [1] Group 2 - The development of the China-Europe Railway Express (Xi'an) is reshaping the regional industrial landscape, with companies like Shaanxi Automobile Group and BYD utilizing the service for international expansion [2] - The establishment of logistics parks in Xi'an, such as the Zhonglin Timber Logistics Park and the Wukuang Metal Smart Logistics Park, is facilitating the aggregation of upstream and downstream enterprises, creating the largest timber reserve base and construction material distribution center in Northwest China [2]

Core Points - The dialogue conference on "Investment in Shandong, Win-Win Future" was held on November 6, 2023, at the National Exhibition and Convention Center in Shanghai, focusing on industrial ecological cooperation [1] - The event attracted over 60 foreign business associations, Fortune 500 multinational companies, and industry leaders [1] - A total of 25 key cooperation projects were signed during the conference, including 20 trade projects with an import-export total of approximately $5.84 billion and 5 investment projects with a total investment of about $290 million [1] Group 1 - The conference was hosted by the Shandong Provincial Government and featured speeches from officials including the Deputy Minister of Commerce and the Vice Governor of Shandong [1] - Major companies and associations such as Medtronic, Baker Hughes, IBM, and Ant Group participated in discussions on "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing: Industry Model Driven Ecological Transformation" [1] - The participating cities, including Qingdao, Zibo, Yantai, Jining, Weihai, and Binzhou, promoted their industrial ecosystems [1] Group 2 - The trade projects covered various sectors, including energy, minerals, agricultural products, and electromechanical equipment [1] - The investment projects focused on new energy materials, high-end equipment, and health care [1] - The event highlighted the importance of international collaboration in enhancing Shandong's industrial ecosystem [1]

Core Insights - The global economic landscape is shifting towards the use of the Chinese yuan (RMB) for trade settlements, with several countries increasingly adopting this practice as a strategic move to reduce reliance on the US dollar [2][4][5]. Group 1: Trade Settlement Trends - Russia has significantly increased the proportion of trade settled in RMB, rising from 2% in 2022 to 25% by the end of 2023, and projected to reach 36% in the first half of 2024 [2]. - Argentina announced in April 2023 that it would use RMB to repay part of its IMF debt and expanded its currency swap agreement with China to 130 billion RMB [2]. - Brazil established a RMB clearing bank in March 2023, facilitating direct settlements for coffee and soybean trade, with initial transaction volumes reaching several hundred billion USD [4]. Group 2: Regional Developments - Thailand expanded its cross-border payment system with China in 2024, allowing local businesses to settle 25% of imports in RMB, which is expected to rise to 35% by 2025 [4]. - Indonesia initiated a similar mechanism in 2024, with RMB accounting for 20% of bilateral trade, projected to increase to 28% in 2025 [5]. - Saudi Arabia began testing RMB settlements for oil in late 2023, signing a local currency swap agreement with China [5]. Group 3: Financial Infrastructure and Growth - The cross-border RMB settlement volume reached 64 trillion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, with trade financing in RMB accounting for 6% of the global market [9]. - The issuance of panda bonds nearly doubled in 2023 to 154 billion RMB, indicating growing interest from overseas investors [9]. - The RMB's share in global SWIFT payments increased from 2.2% at the end of 2022 to 4.5% by February 2024, reflecting its rising international usage [9]. Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - The shift towards RMB is seen as a response to geopolitical risks and the desire for countries to diversify their currency reserves away from the US dollar [11][15]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that as of March 2025, the RMB accounted for 2.1% of central bank reserve allocations, with over 70 central banks holding RMB reserves [11]. - The trend of increasing RMB usage is expected to continue, driven by bilateral agreements and the establishment of clearing networks, enhancing its role in global trade and finance [15].