液化石油气日报 | 2025-06-19 现货端表现相对平稳，关注伊以冲突走向 2、\t2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷651美元/吨，涨11美元/吨，丁烷578美元/吨，涨3美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷5143元/吨，涨88元/吨，丁烷4566元/吨，涨24元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、 2025年7月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷648美元/吨，涨3美元/吨，丁烷578美元/吨，涨3美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷5119元/吨，涨24元/吨，丁烷4566元/吨，涨24元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 在伊以冲突升级的背景下，PG盘面持续反弹，现货端表现则相对平稳，期货端更多反映了对局势恶化的担忧，包 含了地缘溢价。作为这轮冲突的中心，伊朗LPG供应面临下行风险，今年出口量水平在100万吨/月左右，其中接近 80%的LPG直接发往中国。6月份伊朗LPG发货已经有减少迹象，如果伊以冲突导致伊朗石油设施或LPG出口终端 受损，则伊朗LPG产量和出口或持续下滑，我国LPG原料来源将显著收紧，亚洲及国内LPG市场存在上行驱动。目 前局势仍不明朗，暂未对伊朗石油供应造成显著影响，市场或面临反复波 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 18 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Israel-Iran conflict continues, but it is likely to cool down. After the short - term sentiment pushes up the valuations of crude oil and chemicals, wait for the cooling event to find mid - term short - selling opportunities [2][3] - The short - term trading in the market is based on the geopolitical premium under the Israel - Iran conflict, while the mid - term supply - demand surplus logic of crude oil has temporarily retreated [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Short - term trading is based on geopolitical premium under the Israel - Iran conflict, and the mid - term supply - demand surplus logic has temporarily retreated [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. There are signs of a peak on the daily K - line, and the hourly K - line has not reversed. The short - term support is at 490. The strategy is to wait for the short - term support to break on the hourly cycle [4] (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The supply of pure benzene at the cost end is sufficient, and the port inventory is at a five - year high. The mid - term supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak, but it is affected by the large fluctuations in crude oil prices in the short term [7] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It reduced positions and declined today but has not reversed. The hourly - level support is at 7315. The strategy is to wait for the short - term support to break on the hourly cycle [7] (3) Rubber - **Logic**: The price of Thai cup rubber is 27% lower than the same period last year, and the supply in Southeast Asian producing areas is gradually being realized. The demand is extremely weak both at home and abroad. The mid - term bearish fundamentals remain unchanged [10] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The 14000 level is still a valid short - term pressure. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 14000 [10] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are still in a weak pattern of high supply, weak demand, and large inventory pressure. The price of raw material butadiene will be under pressure after the large - scale commissioning of cracking units in June and the second half of the year. The demand is as weak as that of rubber. The mid - term fundamentals are bearish, but it is easily disturbed by large fluctuations in crude oil in the short term [13] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It reduced positions and declined today, with some fluctuations near the short - term pressure of 11470. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 11640 [13] (5) PX - **Logic**: Some PX plants will resume production in June, and the demand side (PTA) will also restart the overhauled plants. The current PX inventory is low, and the supply - demand is relatively balanced. It is more affected by crude oil fluctuations in the short term [17] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today. The short - term support is at 6510 or wait for the crude oil to break the signal. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [17] (6) PTA - **Logic**: The previously overhauled PTA plants are gradually resuming production, the polyester start - up has declined, and the de - stocking amplitude has narrowed. The fundamentals have weakened, but it is more affected by crude oil fluctuations in the short term [20] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today. The short - term support is at 4610 or wait for the crude oil to break the signal. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [20] (7) PP - **Logic**: The start - up of PP plants has increased, the supply is under pressure, and the order demand at the terminal demand end is weak in the traditional off - season. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but it is affected by the large fluctuations in crude oil from the cost end recently [23] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term support below is at 7060. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [23] (8) Methanol - **Logic**: The Iranian methanol plants have stopped production, increasing supply - side disturbances. The domestic plants have high profits, and the domestic start - up remains at a historical high. The inventory has entered the accumulation stage [25] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term support is at 2365. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [25] (9) PVC - **Logic**: The overhaul volume is gradually decreasing, and the PVC start - up is expected to gradually increase. The terminal demand is still insufficient in the real - estate downward cycle, and the export expectation has weakened significantly. The bearish fundamentals remain unchanged [28] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today and has not reversed in the short term. The short - term pressure is still at 4880. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 4865 [28] (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The overhauled plants at the supply end will gradually resume, and the polyester start - up at the demand end has declined. The short - term fundamentals have weakened, but it is easily affected by large fluctuations in oil prices in the short term [31] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term support is at 4310. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [31] (11) Plastic - **Logic**: There is pressure from the commissioning of large plants in the mid - term, and the supply is expected to increase significantly. The mid - term view is bearish, but it is easily affected by large fluctuations in oil prices in the short term [32] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term support is at 7220. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [32]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The demand for sustainable aviation fuel remains strong, while the supply and demand dynamics for fuel oil are showing signs of weakness, particularly in the low-sulfur segment, influenced by various regional factors and geopolitical events [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of June 3, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease of 2,000 tons in low-sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts, totaling 25,000 tons, while fuel oil warehouse receipts remained stable at 28,950 tons [1]. - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) signals a strong ongoing demand for sustainable aviation fuel [1]. - Japan's commercial aviation fuel inventory increased to 878,300 kiloliters, up from 821,100 kiloliters, while commercial kerosene and diesel inventories also saw increases [1]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - According to Guotou Anxin Futures, the demand for high-sulfur fuel oil remains relatively weak, with expectations that summer electricity demand in the Middle East and North Africa will not significantly boost consumption due to lower temperature forecasts [2]. - The supply side saw a 42% increase in Russian fuel oil shipments to Asia, totaling 2.45 million tons, amid expectations of increased supply from OPEC+ [2]. - Fujairah's low-sulfur fuel oil bunkering volumes have significantly decreased, indicating a weakening demand as the peak season for marine fuel approaches its end [2]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Current market sentiment suggests a slight improvement in the global economy, with expectations of increased gasoline demand due to the summer travel peak in the U.S. [3]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, are raising oil prices due to increased geopolitical risk premiums [3]. - The demand for fuel oil is expected to strengthen as South Asia and the Middle East enter their peak electricity demand season, with Egypt's recent high-sulfur fuel oil procurement tenders providing a boost [3].

欧佩克+原油出口不升反降！供应预期存在偏差，地缘溢价短期加持，多头将迎来新一轮机会，如何识 别最佳入场时机？关税风波再起，市场反应路径生变，风险资产面临不对称风险。解读市场宏观信息差 >> 原油周初强势拉升，6月剧本需要改写？ 相关链接 ...

【国际原油】 WTI7 月收跌 0.15 美元/桶，跌幅 0.25%，报 60.79 美元/桶；布伦特 7 月原油期货收跌 0.25 美 元/桶，跌幅 0.39%，报 63.90 美元/桶。 原油：地缘溢价提升，多单、正套轻仓持有 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 3 日 9. 欧佩克+声明：八个成员国（沙特、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿联酋、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利 亚和阿曼）将在七月份增产 41.1 万桶/日。根据不断变化的市场情况，逐步增加的产量可能会暂停 或逆转。他们还确认，将全额补偿自 2024 年 1 月以来的任何过剩产量。 10. 美联储洛根：尽管存在不确定性，整体经济仍然具有韧性。通胀仍然略高于目标水平。如果关 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 研 究 所 1. 金十数据 6 月 2 日讯，特朗普政府希望将储藏的 100 万桶柴油投放市场，称这一旨在为东北地 区提供紧急家庭取暖油供应的储备从未达到预期目的。根据美国能源部最近公布的预算细节， 出售和关闭东北地区家庭取暖油储备将产生 1 亿美元 ...

行为性策略维度：市场预期的动态调适。地缘溢价收缩与基本面权重逆转。尽管以色列袭击核设施风险 短期推升地缘溢价，但EIA三重库存超预期增长（原油+130万桶/汽油+80万桶/馏分油+60万桶）直接暴 露终端需求疲软，触发市场对供需错配的再定价。邓正红提出的"靴子落地效应"在此显现：当袭击可能 性未实质转化为供应中断时，地缘风险溢价将被库存压力挤出。金融传导机制的复合冲击。美国国债发 行遇冷引发流动性紧缩预期，叠加汽油表观需求同比下降，形成"宏观紧缩+微观疲软"的双重压制。这 种跨市场联动验证了邓正红关于"能源软实力受制于系统性金融能级"的论断，即油价不仅反映商品属 性，更深嵌于全球资本流动图谱之中。 战略势能维度：中东秩序重构的长期影响。核设施博弈的蝴蝶效应。以色列若实施核打击将彻底破坏美 伊核谈判基础，迫使伊朗转向更高强度铀浓缩作为反制筹码。这种"安全困境"螺旋将重塑中东核能发展 路径，进而影响欧佩克联盟内部合作框架（如伊朗重返原油市场的可能性）。去美元化进程的隐性制 约。沙特等产油国加速推进非美元结算体系，客观上需要油价稳定以维持货币信用。当前库存累积与地 缘风险并存的环境，恰好为其提供了调整外汇储备结构的 ...