宏观研究 外需波动影响信贷，加速改善可期 投资要点 证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-05-16 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《央行再提利率风险，短期长端利率 波动或有所加大》 - 2025.05.13 4 月金融数据呈现了以下特点：一是美国加征关税外生冲击，微 观主体情绪趋于审慎和观望，企业投资扩产意愿或有所下降，主动消 化库存，制约信贷需求增长；二是财政加速落地，财政融资加快，同 时财政支持加大力度，推动实物工作量形成；三是资本市场保持高景 气度，存款利率下调趋势不变，存在"存款搬家"行为。 向后看，我们理解，金融数据或趋于改善。一是 4 月 12 日中美 经贸会谈释放积极利好，美国对中国关税税率大幅下调，短期改善市 场对出口预期，至少在 90 天豁免期内，出口或迎来较为明显回升， 带动企业融资改善。5 月 14 日，贸易追踪机构 Vizion 公布的数据显 示，在美国和中 ...

韩国提高存款保险上限 "存款搬家潮"或来袭 金十数据5月15日讯，韩国金融监管机构表示，自9月起，每位客户在金融机构的存款保险上限将从目前 的5000万韩元提高至1亿韩元（约71,174美元），这一措施旨在增强公众对银行体系的信心。这可能会 部分影响货币市场，因为储户或将资金转向提供更高利率的金融机构，例如储蓄银行，而非传统商业银 行。韩国金融委员会补充称，这种"存款搬家"现象可能导致商业银行通过发债来弥补资金缺口。韩国政 府表示，将密切关注资本流动和市场反应，因为一些金融机构可能因此次调整面临流动性或偿付能力方 面的挑战。政府还将严密监控二级金融机构是否出现"过度放贷"行为。此次调整使韩国的存款保险制度 更接近国际标准，并有望鼓励个人更多地将储蓄存入银行。 ...

Core Insights - The overall performance of the bond market has been strong since April, leading to a significant inflow of funds into the wealth management market, with the total scale of wealth management products reaching a historical high of 23.58 trillion yuan by the end of April, an increase of 1.89 trillion yuan from March and 1.16 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year [1] Group 1: Wealth Management Market Growth - The growth in the wealth management market has shown a significant "tiered differentiation," with state-owned banks leading the increase, generally exceeding 10% growth [2] - Six state-owned bank wealth management companies contributed approximately 1.13 trillion yuan to the market in April, accounting for nearly 60% of the total increase among the top 14 institutions [2] - The cumulative increase in wealth management products for several joint-stock banks has also been notable, with Everbright Wealth Management leading with an increase of over 230 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Factors Influencing Growth - The bond market has benefited from a "see-saw" effect due to stock market volatility, leading to a recovery in the net value curve of wealth management products [4] - The average annualized yield of open-ended fixed-income products reached 3.21% by the end of April, an increase of 1.41 percentage points from the previous month [4] - The "deposit migration effect" has intensified, with many banks lowering deposit rates, making wealth management products more attractive compared to traditional deposits [4] Group 3: Product Performance - Fixed-income and cash management products have directly benefited from the influx of new funds, with cash management product scales increasing by nearly 500 billion yuan in April [5] Group 4: Future Challenges - Despite maintaining high market scales, the wealth management market faces significant challenges in the context of a stable but low-demand market for fixed-income asset yields [6] - Analysts express concerns about the short-term funding sources for wealth management liabilities and potential adjustments in the bond market due to regulatory policies [7]

4月银行理财市场规模迎来季节性大幅回流，背后主要受多因素共振带来的影响。 跨过一季末时点后，银行理财规模环比呈现大幅回升。 进入4月后，债市整体表现偏强，叠加中小银行存款利率新一轮"降息潮"等因素，为理财市场带来增量资金。 由此，银行理财规模也迅速回升，甚至规模再度触及历史高位。 据券商中国记者独家汇总的产品规模排名前14的理财公司数据，截至今年4月末，14家银行理财公司合计规模 达23.58万亿元，较今年3月末增长1.89万亿元，较今年年初增长1.16万亿元，大幅超出此前数年同月份增幅。 国有行理财"打头阵" 据券商中国记者独家数据测算，4月银行理财公司存续产品规模的增幅，存在显著的"梯队分化"：即处于行业 规模第二梯队的国有行理财公司增幅普遍超过10%；而规模超过2万亿元的第一梯队的三家股份行理财公司 ——招银理财、兴银理财和信银理财，单月增幅在4.8%~6.6%之间。 作为贡献4月份理财市场增量的"打头阵"机构，六家国有行理财公司单月回升的理财规模合计约为1.13万亿 元，占上述14家机构的近六成。具体来看，农银理财4月增幅超17%，增量超2800亿元，此外建信理财、中银 理财单月增幅均超13%，中银理 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese banking wealth management market experienced a significant contraction in the first quarter of 2025, with a decrease of approximately 810 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total number of wealth management products in the market was 40,600, an increase of 300 products from the end of 2024 [2]. - The total market size for wealth management products stood at 29.14 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease of about 810 billion yuan [2]. - The decline in market size was attributed to seasonal factors, adjustments in the bond market, and weakened returns on wealth management products [2][3]. Group 2: Product Composition - Fixed income products accounted for 28.33 trillion yuan, representing 97.22% of the total market size, which is an increase of 0.57% year-on-year [4]. - Mixed-asset products had a size of 720 billion yuan, with a market share of 2.47%, down 0.44 percentage points from the previous year [4]. - Equity products and financial derivatives had minimal market sizes of 80 billion yuan and 10 billion yuan, respectively, with shares of only 0.27% and 0.03% [4]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The allocation of wealth management funds was primarily towards bonds (13.68 trillion yuan), cash and bank deposits (7.27 trillion yuan), and interbank certificates of deposit (4.20 trillion yuan), making up 43.9%, 23.3%, and 13.5% of total investment assets, respectively [5]. - Investments in equity assets, public funds, and financial derivatives accounted for smaller proportions of 2.6%, 3.0%, and 0.05% [5]. - The current low-interest-rate environment is expected to drive diversification in wealth management fund allocations to enhance returns in the long term [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Industry analysts remain optimistic about the recovery of the wealth management market, with expectations of an increase of approximately 800 billion to 1.2 trillion yuan in April 2025 [7]. - The market has shown signs of recovery, with rising yields on wealth management products and a trend of deposit rate cuts by several banks, leading to potential shifts of funds from deposits to wealth management [7]. - Citic Securities predicts that the market size could exceed 32.5 trillion yuan in 2025, with "fixed income plus" products expected to be a focus for wealth management subsidiaries [8].

"存款搬家"带来增量资金。 2025年第一季度，中国银行理财市场经历了规模的显著调整。 据银行业理财登记托管中心发布的《中国银行业理财市场季度报告》（下称《报告》），截至3月末， 理财市场规模整体缩水，存续规模较2024年末减少约8100亿元。 然而，进入4月以来，市场出现回暖迹象，理财规模重新恢复增长态势。与此同时，随着商业银行存款 利率的下调以及理财产品收益率的回升，投资者"存款搬家"现象越发明显，为理财市场带来了新的增量 资金。 今年一季度，债券市场呈现出较为明显的波动态势。作为理财产品的重要基础资产，其市场表现直接拖 累理财产品的收益表现。根据普益标准的统计数据，截至一季度末，理财公司存续开放式固收类理财产 品（不含现金管理类产品）的近1个月年化收益率的平均水平为2.24%，环比再度下跌1.15个百分点。 一季度规模回落超8000亿元 《报告》显示，2025年第一季度，理财市场规模整体呈现缩水态势。 数据显示，截至2025年一季度末，全市场存续的理财产品数量为4.06万只，相较于2024年末增长了300 只；存续规模为29.14万亿元，整体规模却减少了约8100亿元。 "主要原因是受到季末回表因素的影 ...

二、交易量：居民存款搬家支撑，有望维持高位 各位投资者好，本期旬度的题目就是我们当前对大类资产的主要观点， " 看股做债，存款搬家定天下，行业景 气， AI 支出凝共识 " ，我今天将就经济形势、交易量、股债关系、市场风格、行业景气等方面，详细阐述我 们的思考。 一、经济形势：或仍是供过于求、物价偏弱 我们认为大的推动利润上行的因素，目前尚未看到 ，我们在前几次旬度会议中有所提及，从三大终端需求来 看： 1 ）财政支出，今年广义财政支出增速预计在 3.4-3.5% ，虽然预算草案中给出的增速是 5% ，但是我们认 为收入端的不确定性可能会制约支出增速。 2 ）社零，以旧换新的支持体量在 3000 亿，对应全年的社零增速 大概在 4% 左右； 3 ）固投，预计也是 3%-4% 左右。三大终端需求力量均未超过 5% ，意味着今年可能仍是供 过于求、物价偏弱、利润偏弱的状态。 对于通胀， 预计全年 PPI 为 -1.7% ， CPI 约 0% ， GDP 平减指数为负，价格整体仍偏弱，全年名义 GDP 预计 在 4.3%-4.5% 之间，虽然不会突破 2023 年 4.0%-4.2% 的低点，但也难以看到大的弹性。 ...