期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 30 日 期货研究 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：短期情绪面驱动 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20605 | -10 | -295 | 140 | 1280 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20620 | ー | l | - | l | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2606 | -25 | -46 | વર | 249 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 119985 | -68337 | -33433 | 26772 | -133621 | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 272707 | -12465 | -58190 | 108696 | 128104 | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may see an upward trend due to concerns about limited inventory growth and potential export increase in August. For soybean oil, the impact of US biodiesel policy has ended, and domestic demand may pick up in August. It is recommended to go long on dips for palm oil and pay attention to the domestic demand recovery for soybean oil [1]. - **Meal and Bean Products**: The US soybean market is under pressure due to the expectation of a bumper harvest and trade uncertainties. Domestic soybean and bean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see for bean meal [2]. - **Pork**: The spot pork market is weak, with low enthusiasm for secondary fattening, increased slaughter volume, and weak demand. It is expected that the spot price will remain at the bottom, and the near - month contract is under pressure. For the far - month contract, it is not recommended to short blindly, but the impact of hedging funds should be noted [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The corn market is relatively stable in the short term, with limited price increase and decrease. The supply is tight in the third quarter and may be loose in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to policy auctions and the growth of new crops [6]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has no new drivers, and the overall is bearish. The domestic sugar market has low demand, and the price is under pressure due to the increase in imports. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range high - level oscillation [8]. - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs is sufficient, but the supply of large - sized eggs is tight. The demand may first decrease and then increase this week. The egg price may decline slightly next week but still has an upward space in the spot market, while the futures upside is limited [11]. - **Cotton**: The supply pressure of cotton is increasing marginally, and the demand weakness is weakening marginally. The domestic cotton price may oscillate in the short term and face pressure after the new cotton is on the market [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On July 28, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8350 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The futures price of Y2509 was 8226 yuan/ton, up 1.31%. The basis was 144 yuan/ton, down 37.39%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.78% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On July 29, the spot price in Guangdong was 8920 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The futures price of P2509 was 8970 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The basis was - 50 yuan/ton, down 308.33%. The import cost increased by 0.14%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On July 28, the spot price in Jiangsu was 9540 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The futures price of Ol509 was 9492 yuan/ton, up 0.91%. The basis decreased by 26.87%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. Meal and Bean Products - **Bean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of M2509 was 2990 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The basis was - 133 yuan/ton, up 5%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 8.9% [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2530 yuan/ton, down 1.17%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2660 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis decreased by 30%. The import profit decreased by 57.84%, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [2]. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3960 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of the main contract decreased by 1.68%. The basis increased by 26.89%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.14% [2]. Pork - **Futures**: The price of the 2511 contract was 14125 yuan/ton, down 0.88%. The price of the 2509 contract was 14150 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The 9 - 11 spread was 25 yuan/ton, up 120%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased [4]. - **Spot**: The prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, and other regions decreased, with the largest decline of 200 yuan/ton in Henan and Shandong [4]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of the 2509 contract was 2302 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. The basis was 48 yuan/ton, up 54.84%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 6.45%. The import profit decreased by 0.88% [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the 2509 contract was 2666 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The basis was 14 yuan/ton, up 566.67%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 7.89%. The starch - corn spread remained unchanged [6]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5731 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The price of the 2509 contract was 5867 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The ICE raw sugar price was 16.56 cents/pound, up 0.79%. The 1 - 9 spread increased by 4.9% [8]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Kunming was 5915 yuan/ton, up 0.6%. The basis in Nanning decreased by 10.73%, and the basis in Kunming increased by 37.14% [8]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3576 yuan/500KG, unchanged. The price of the 08 contract was 3349 yuan/500KG, down 0.33%. The 9 - 8 spread increased by 5.09% [10]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the producing area was 3.20 yuan/jin, down 0.48%. The basis was - 375 yuan/500KG, down 3.55% [10]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13925 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The price of the 2601 contract was 14025 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. The ICE US cotton price was 67.66 cents/pound, down 0.94%. The 9 - 1 spread was - 110 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15431 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The CC Index of 3128B was 15580 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic PP market showed a narrow - range consolidation. The slight increase in PP futures boosted the spot market. The factory prices of producers were mostly stable, the cost support of the goods changed little, and the overall market turnover improved slightly compared to the previous day [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The closing price of PP2509 was 7160, with a daily increase of 0.18%. The trading volume was 219,303, and the open interest decreased by 17,048 [1] - Spreads: The basis of the 09 contract was - 90 (previous day: - 60), and the spread between the 09 - 01 contracts was - 6 (unchanged from the previous day) [1] - Spot Prices: In North China, it was 7000 - 7120 yuan/ton (previous day: 6980 - 7140 yuan/ton); in East China, it was 7070 - 7170 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day); in South China, it was 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton (previous day: 7020 - 7200 yuan/ton) [1] Spot News - The domestic PP market was in narrow - range consolidation. The slight rise in PP futures had a certain boost to the spot market. Producers' prices were mostly stable, and traders priced according to their inventory and cost. Downstream buyers made low - price rigid - demand purchases, and the overall market turnover improved slightly [2] Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity was 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [2]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 07 月 30 日 合成橡胶：短期震荡 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 【行业新闻】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 （09合约） | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 11,835 104,614 | 11,955 150,860 | -120 -46246 | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 41,136 | 45,103 | -3967 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 620,306 | 914,961 | -294655 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | 65 | 195 | -130 | | | 月差 | BR08-BR09 | （民营） | -30 | -35 | 5 | | | 顺丁价格 | | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: High-level shock [1] - Alumina: Sentiment decline [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow electrolytic aluminum [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures market prices, spreads, inventory, and enterprise profitability [1] - The U.S. Treasury Department expects to borrow nearly $1.01 trillion in the third quarter, an 82% increase, and accelerate bond issuance after the debt ceiling is raised [2] - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral view [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai aluminum contract is 20,615, down 145 from the previous trading day [1] - The closing price of the LME aluminum 3M contract is 2,631, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - The closing price of the main Shanghai alumina contract at night is 3,260 [1] - The closing price of the main aluminum alloy contract at night is 20,055 [1] Spot Market - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is 514,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous trading day [1] - The domestic average alumina price is 3,261 [1] - The FOB price of Australian alumina is $380 per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] Enterprise Profitability - The profit of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is 3,919.40, down 120.00 from the previous trading day [1] - The theoretical profit of ADC12 is -415, down 64 from the previous trading day [1] - The export profit of aluminum sheets and coils is 1,937.40, down 123.37 from the previous trading day [1]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1100.50 | -158.50↓ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1608.50 | -154.50↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 770883.00 | -151239.00↓ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 52357.00 | -2371.00↓ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -86983.00 | -45768.00↓ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -5324.00 | +1338.00↑ | | | JM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 79.50 | +20.00↑ | J1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 42.00 | -6.00↓ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 0.00 | 0.00 | 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 760.00 | 0.00 | | | 干其毛都蒙5原煤（日，元/吨） | 104 ...

Report Information - Report Date: July 25, 2025 [1] - Report Cycle: Daily Report [1] - Analyst: Dai Xiaohong, with Futures Practitioner Certificate No. F0266663 and Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No. Z0000213 [1] 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Quotes - On July 24, 2025, the stainless steel ss2509 futures contract fluctuated sideways with large intraday volatility, rising after an early - morning decline, closing up about 0.27% at 12,935 points. The overnight position decreased continuously and then increased with the price rise before the close. The daily trading volume was 144,000 lots, a decrease of 81,700 lots from the previous trading day [2] 1.2 Variety Prices - The prices of 12 stainless - steel futures contracts showed a normal market pattern of lower near - term and higher far - term prices. All contracts were strong throughout the day, with near - term contracts stronger than far - term ones. The active contract ss2509 had a position of 120,000 lots, a decrease of 2,051 lots (1.71% decrease). The main - contract funds left the market, while the position of the secondary main contract increased by 3,095 lots [5] 1.3 Related Quotes - On the same day, Shanghai nickel prices mostly rose, and nickel ore prices were firm. Some ferronickel production capacity shifted to nickel ice again, and it was expected that the supply of ferronickel and the amount flowing back to China would shrink. The domestic ferronickel price rebounded to around 908 yuan per nickel point [7] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - In the past 10 trading days, the basis of the active stainless - steel contract ss2509 changed significantly, with a maximum of 280 yuan/ton, a minimum of 25 yuan/ton, and 95 yuan/ton on the day, widening by 35 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the spot market, taking 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coil plate with rough edges as an example, the prices in Foshan Yongjin, Wuxi Yongjin, Zibo Hongwang, and Shanghai Hongwang were 12,700 yuan/ton, 12,600 yuan/ton, 12,550 yuan/ton, and 12,700 yuan/ton respectively [11] 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 103,354 tons, a decrease of 61 tons. Although the registered warehouse receipts of stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been decreasing recently, they are still at a historical high [11] 3. Influencing Factors - According to Mysteel statistics, on July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the mainstream markets across the country was 1,118,586 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.54%. For the 300 - series stainless steel, the total inventory was 669,941 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.55%. The market arrivals were normal this week. With the increase in spot prices following the mill's list prices, the resource digestion speed accelerated slightly, and the shipments were mainly for on - demand procurement and the delivery of some previous processing orders. Therefore, the national stainless - steel social inventory decreased this period [12] 4. Market Outlook - The strong sideways fluctuation on the previous day, combined with the gradual increase over several trading days, may accumulate bullish energy in market sentiment and risk preference. Before new spot data is released, the moving - average system may support traders' bullish sentiment and push prices higher, but the variability of sentiment should be noted [14]

Market Overview and Market Review Market Overall Performance - On July 22, 2025, the main continuous contract of DCE soybean No. 1 futures continued its rebound and upward trend. The opening price was 4,204 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4,238 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 4,184 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 4,232 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton or 1.34% from the previous day. The trading volume was 146,103 lots, the open interest was 181,087 lots, and the daily increase in open interest was 8,089 lots [2]. Futures Market Data - The report provides detailed futures market data for different contracts of soybean No. 1, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, previous settlement price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, change in open interest, and trading value. The total trading volume of soybean No. 1 futures was 189,592 lots, the total open interest was 309,914 lots, and the total trading value was 795,149.28 million yuan [2]. Spot Market Data - According to Wind data, the average price of domestic soybeans on the day was 4,017 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 0.25%. In recent days, the spot price of soybeans has been stable with a slight decline. The soybean inventory at major ports was 6.7453 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.29%. As imported soybeans arrive at ports successively, the soybean inventory at ports continues to accumulate [4]. Influencing Factor Analysis Important News and Event Reviews - The import price of near - month soybeans showed a weakening trend. The near - month landed duty - paid price of US Gulf soybeans was 4,907.94 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans was 3,927.66 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was 3,799.66 yuan/ton [9]. Associated Data Tracking - The basis of soybean No. 1 on the day was - 212 yuan/ton. The total open interest of soybean No. 1 options was 60,222 contracts, including 40,687 call option contracts and 19,535 put option contracts. The put - to - call ratio of open interest was 0.4801 [12]. Core View - The spot price of domestic soybeans is stable with a slight decline, the port inventory is increasing, and the import price of near - month soybeans is weakening. The soybean No. 1 futures market is showing a rebound and upward trend, and the market sentiment is relatively warm, continuing to be dominated by a volatile and strong trend [4][9][13]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-23 市场整体情绪偏乐观 铜价震荡上行 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-07-22，沪铜主力合约开于 79720元/吨，收于 79740元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.05%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 79,830元/吨，收于 79,970 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.40%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日国内电解铜现货市场呈现结构性紧张，主流品牌对2508合约升水报160-320元/吨，均价240元/ 吨，较昨日上涨20元/吨。现货价格区间79630-79880元/吨，沪铜早盘自79760元/吨回落至79560元/吨，隔月价差维 持Contango结构。市场呈现明显分化：主流交单品牌升水高企，但常州等地实际成交品牌升水仅60-80元/吨。尽管 冶炼厂已向上海地区发货，但优质平水铜和好铜供应仍然偏紧，品牌价差将持续，建议下游企业按需采购。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，近日，美国财长贝森特称，8月1日对所有国家来说都是一个"较为硬性的最后期限"。欧盟贸易 谈判与俄乌制裁谈判分开进行，而与日本的谈判进展非常顺利。不过近期市场表现似乎并为受到太大影响，甚至 ...

所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 23 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：震荡上行 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 期货研究 【综合快讯】 1. 特朗普称美菲达成贸易协议，将征菲律宾 19% 关税，道指加速上涨。特朗普称在白宫会见到访的菲 律宾总统马科斯，双方达成贸易协议，菲律宾将对美国开放市场、实行零关税。19% 的关税低于他两周前发 函威胁的水平 20%。继印尼之后，菲律宾成为第二个通过贸易协议降低他本月发函威胁 8 月将新征关税水 平的国家。（华尔街见闻） | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20900 | ୧୦ | 470 | 460 | 375 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20925 | l | l | ...