Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term rating for the soda ash industry is fluctuating and bullish [1] Core View of the Report - The supply of soda ash is increasing and demand is weakening, which may intensify the supply - demand contradiction. However, in the short term, boosted by macro news and the sharp rise in coal prices, the price may maintain a fluctuating and bullish trend. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro policies, and market sentiment changes [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The main soda ash contract opened lower and moved lower during the day, showing a short - term fluctuating and bullish signal. The upper pressure is near the 60 - week moving average, and the support is near the 40 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 156,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 131,000 lots. The intraday high was 1271, the low was 1222, and the closing price was 1239, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.16% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: The spot market rose slightly. Enterprise equipment was generally stable with minor adjustments. The output of Boyuan Yingen increased, and industrial supply remained at a high level. Downstream procurement sentiment was average, mostly replenishing on - demand, with low - price transactions being the main form [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 11 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 8, domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. Light soda ash production was 349,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,000 tons; heavy soda ash production was 404,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33,500 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.39%, up 4.43% from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 90.41%, a month - on - month increase of 11.20%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.11%, a month - on - month increase of 1.33%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 88.15%, a month - on - month increase of 2.24% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons, an increase of 64,300 tons or 4.26% compared with Monday. Among them, light soda ash was 836,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons; heavy soda ash was 736,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons. Compared with last Wednesday, it increased by 164,400 tons or 11.67%. Among them, light soda ash was 836,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 104,300 tons; heavy soda ash was 736,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,100 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.4708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10,190 tons or 6.93% [2] - **Demand**: This week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 589,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.99%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a month - on - month decrease of 26.15%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash was relatively stable. At the end of last month, some glass production lines were shut down for cold repair, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened [3][4] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 39.65%. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal increased, leading to an increase in costs [4] Main Logic Summary - Currently, the soda ash production has decreased, but the overall operating rate is relatively high. With the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output remains at a high level. Before New Year's Day, 6 glass production lines were shut down for cold repair, and this week, another 3 production lines were shut down, further weakening the rigid demand for soda ash and continuously increasing inventory. However, there is some short - term support under continuous losses and positive macro - sentiment [5]

Report Overview - The report is a methanol industry daily report dated January 8, 2026, provided by Ruida Futures [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Report's Core View - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2200 - 2300 in the short - term. There is an expected reduction in imports in January, and port methanol inventory may decline from its high level. The average weekly operation rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins has slightly increased, but there is an expectation of a load reduction in the MTO industry as the maintenance plan in East China is implemented [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2231 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is - 4 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 870199 lots, an increase of 51352 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 176203 lots, a decrease of 38027 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8205, unchanged [3] 3.2现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2255 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1857.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan. The East - Northwest price difference is 397.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 12 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan. The CFR price at the Chinese main port is 268 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar; in Southeast Asia, it is 322 dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 260 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is - 54 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.56 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.13 dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 112.33 tons, up 7.62 tons; in South China ports, it is 41.39 tons, down 1.64 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 7.86 yuan/ton, up 18.37 yuan. The monthly import volume is 141.76 tons, down 19.5 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 447700 tons, up 25100 tons. The methanol enterprise operation rate is 90.31%, down 0.93% [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operation rate is 38.24%, down 4.19%; the dimethyl ether operation rate is 3.6%, down 3.49%; the acetic acid operation rate is 80.3%, up 2.71%; the MTBE operation rate is 68.01%, unchanged; the olefin operation rate is 87.46%, down 1.8%. The methanol - to - olefins profit on the futures market is - 1009 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 19.82%, up 0.65%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.9%, up 0.25%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.19%, up 0.64%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.19%, up 0.62% [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of January 7, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 44.77 tons, up 2.51 tons (a 5.94% increase); the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises are 23.75 tons, up 2.95 tons (a 14.16% increase). The total inventory in Chinese methanol ports is 153.72 tons, up 4.08 tons. East China has accumulated inventory (up 5.72 tons), while South China has reduced inventory (down 1.64 tons). Recently, the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts in domestic methanol is more than the output of restored production capacity, resulting in a decrease in overall production [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Palm Oil - Affected by a mix of bullish and bearish fundamentals, palm oil futures prices will continue to trade in a range. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are consolidating, with short - term prices holding above 8,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to whether it can effectively break through the moving average resistance and whether Malaysian palm oil can hold above 4,000 ringgit [1]. 2.2 Soybean Oil - Uncertainty in the US biodiesel policy makes CBOT soybean oil vulnerable to the movements of related varieties. Although the purchase of US soybeans by Cofco this week boosted CBOT soybean prices, global soybean supply remains ample, keeping CBOT soybeans under pressure. In the domestic market, the pre - Spring Festival stocking period and reduced soybean imports are positive factors, but CBOT soybeans may still correct after a short - term rebound, and the May contract of Dalian soybean oil faces resistance around 7,950 - 8,000 yuan [1]. 2.3 Rapeseed Oil - With limited available domestic rapeseed oil in the spot market, the market is closely watching whether COFCO will start operations on the 10th. Supported by tight spot supply, the downside for rapeseed oil in the short term is limited, and the overall trend will be a wide - range shock adjustment [1]. 2.4 Red Dates - Downstream demand is on a need - to - buy basis, with more buyers inspecting goods, but there is no significant improvement in trading volume. Spot prices are weakly stable. Driven by positive sentiment in the commodity market, futures prices rebounded, and the basis narrowed. The generation of new - season warehouse receipts is accelerating. The pre - Spring Festival stocking and actual inventory - reduction progress should be monitored. In the short term, there is no obvious fundamental driver, and futures prices will fluctuate and consolidate [2]. 2.5 Corn - In the northeast, corn trading is average, and prices are stable, while in the north port, prices declined slightly due to increased arrivals. In the north China region, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants is low. However, due to profit losses, plants are not willing to raise prices, so prices are generally stable. On the demand side, low inventory at the north port supports prices, but deep - processing plants' profit losses limit their acceptance of high - priced corn, and feed companies have sufficient inventory. Policy - wise, the targeted auction of imported corn and the start of competitive sales supplement market supply but have limited short - term impact. In the short term, the reluctance to sell and downstream restocking support the futures market, but selling pressure and policy - driven supply limit the upside. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and farmers' selling attitudes [5]. 2.6 Sugar - As the Brazilian sugarcane crushing season nears its end, its influence on the raw sugar market is diminishing. The market focus has shifted to the northern hemisphere's sugarcane production. India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is increasing, while Thailand's production is still down year - on - year. In the short term, prices are expected to trade in the range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, pre - Spring Festival stocking has boosted sales, and December's Guangxi production and sales data met expectations. However, as it is the peak of the sugar - making season, market participants are cautious, and price increases face resistance. Sugar prices are expected to remain in a low - level range - bound pattern [8][9]. 2.7 Apples - With the approaching Spring Festival stocking season, the trading atmosphere in the apple market has warmed up, and the number of trucks arriving at wholesale markets has increased. High - quality apples are in short supply and prices are firm, but high prices may suppress consumption, and competition from other fruits (such as citrus) has put pressure on ordinary apples' inventory. Futures prices have rebounded, and delivery profits have improved. Attention should be paid to inventory - reduction progress [13]. 2.8 Cotton - ICE cotton futures declined due to falling crude oil prices and a stronger US dollar. In the US cotton - growing areas, rising temperatures, reduced precipitation, and an increasing drought index are in line with the winter La Nina weather pattern. USDA export sales have returned to normal levels, and shipments have slowed. In the domestic market, processing enterprises are holding firm on prices, and the basis is strong. The core drivers are the expected reduction in cotton planting in Xinjiang and downstream restocking, but low - cost foreign cotton and the off - season demand limit price increases. In the short term, cotton prices are expected to remain bullish, but there is a risk of correction after continuous price increases [16]. 2.9 Eggs - Based on previous chick sales data, the number of laying hens entering the laying period in January is expected to be lower than the number of old hens leaving the flock, potentially reducing the laying - hen inventory and easing supply pressure. After continuous price increases, the downstream market is resistant to high - priced eggs, and all sectors are actively selling. Egg prices in the production areas are mixed. Market circulation is smooth, and inventory levels are low. As the traditional consumption peak approaches, downstream stocking demand is rising, but due to relatively ample supply, the main contract is expected to trade in a low - level range [18]. 2.10 Pigs - Spot pig prices have returned to a range - bound pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has declined significantly. In the north, pig sales have decreased, but high prices have dampened slaughterhouses' purchasing enthusiasm. In the south, demand has dropped sharply, providing little support for prices. Some second - fattening operations are still buying, but overall enthusiasm is low due to high current prices and weak future expectations. The market is betting on pre - Spring Festival consumption, but pigs are expected to be sold in mid - to - late January, and the overall supply in January is expected to be ample. Futures prices were previously strong due to market sentiment, but the upside is limited, and there will be pressure later [19]. 2.11 Meal - Affected by funds and sentiment, US soybean prices are strong, but the global supply - demand situation remains loose, and the expected high - yield in South America continues to suppress prices. The market is waiting for the USDA supply - demand report next Monday for new trading guidance. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans and soybean meal remains ample, but the expected future tightness supports the 3 - 5 spread and basis. The expected low arrivals in the first quarter are uncertain due to auctions and arrival schedules. The downside for soybean meal is limited, and the upside is mainly affected by policy. In the short term, with positive macro sentiment, the futures market will be range - bound and bullish [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread Data 3.1.1 Oils - **Soybean Oil**: On January 7, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,460 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (Y2605) was 7,958 yuan, up 0.58% from the previous day, and the basis was 502 yuan, down 8.39% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (P2605) was 8,562 yuan, up 0.73%, and the basis was 8 yuan, down 88.57%. The import cost at Guangzhou Port for May was 8,930 yuan, down 0.18%, and the import profit was - 368 yuan, up 17.58% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (OI605) was 9,130 yuan, down 0.38%, and the basis was 802 yuan, up 4.55% [1]. - **Spreads**: The 05 - 09 spread for the three oils was 150 yuan, up 8.70%; for palm oil, it was 110 yuan, down 6.78%; for rapeseed oil, it was 14 yuan, down 73.08%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread was - 110 yuan, unchanged; the 2605 spread was - 604 yuan, down 2.72%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1,440 yuan, unchanged; the 2605 spread was 1,137 yuan, down 6.65% [1]. 3.1.2 Red Dates - On January 8, the price of the main contract (2605) was 9,150 yuan/ton, up 1.95%. The 5 - 7 spread was - 45 yuan/ton, up 35.71%, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 180 yuan/ton, up 18.18%. The basis for Cangzhou's top - grade red dates was - 75 yuan/ton, up 60%. The total number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 3,008, up 1.72% [2]. 3.1.3 Corn - The price of the March 2026 corn contract (2603) was 2,248 yuan/ton, up 1.17%. The basis was 72 yuan, down 30.10%. The 3 - 7 spread was - 36 yuan, up 21.74%. The north - south trading profit was - 21 yuan, down 31.25%, and the import profit was 267 yuan, up 3.71% [5]. 3.1.4 Sugar - The May 2026 sugar futures price (2605) was 5,281 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 12 yuan, up 25%. The spot price in Nanning was 5,350 yuan/ton, up 0.19%, and the basis was 69 yuan, down 14.81%. Nationwide, the cumulative sugar production was 105 million tons, down 23.24%, and the cumulative sales were 35 million tons, down 42.53% [8]. 3.1.5 Apples - The price of the main contract (2605) was 8,583 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The 5 - 10 spread was 1,109 yuan, up 2.40%. The basis was - 1,383 yuan, up 2.19%. The total number of trucks arriving at three major fruit wholesale markets increased, and the national cold - storage inventory was 733.56 million tons, down 1.41% [10]. 3.1.6 Cotton - The May 2026 cotton futures price (2605) was 15,035 yuan/ton, up 1.21%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 190 yuan, down 2.70%. The Xinjiang ex - factory price of 3128B cotton was 15,574 yuan/ton, up 0.56%. The commercial inventory was 534.9 million tons, up 14.2%, and the industrial inventory was 98.39 million tons, up 4.7% [16]. 3.1.7 Eggs - The March 2026 egg futures price (03) was 3,011 yuan/500 kg, up 0.37%. The basis was 86 yuan/500 kg, up 69.26%. The 3 - 4 spread was - 253 yuan, down 1.20%. The price of egg - laying chicks was 2.8 yuan per chick, unchanged, and the price of culled hens was 3.95 yuan per catty, up 2.07% [18]. 3.1.8 Pigs - The price of the May 2026 pig futures contract (2605) was 12,260 yuan/ton, up 0.04%. The basis of the main contract was 1,215 yuan, up 6.58%. The 3 - 5 spread was - 475 yuan, down 6.74%. The spot price in Henan was 13,000 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The self - breeding profit per pig was - 35 yuan, up 73.41%, and the number of fertile sows was 3,990 million heads, down 1.12% [19]. 3.1.9 Meal - For soybean meal, the spot price in Jiangsu was 3,120 yuan, up 0.65%. The May 2026 futures price (M2605) was 2,811 yuan, up 1.26%, and the basis was 300 yuan, down 4.63%. The import crushing profit for Brazilian soybeans for February shipment was 157 yuan, up 45.4%. For rapeseed meal, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2,490 yuan, up 2.05%, and the May 2026 futures price (RM2605) was 2,419 yuan, up 1.21% [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: The price of corn and starch futures rose in tandem on Wednesday. The spot market in the Northeast remained stable, while the price in the North China was generally stable with minor adjustments. The price in the sales area declined slightly. The short - term focus is on the price pressure around 2270, and the weekly indicators continue to have a bearish expectation [2]. - Soybean and Bean Meal: CBOT soybeans hit a one - week high on Wednesday. Domestic two - meal prices fluctuated higher with an increase of over 1%. The bean meal trading volume increased, and the inventory is expected to rise again. The range - bound thinking remains unchanged, waiting for the USDA supply - demand report next week [2]. - Palm Oil: BMD palm oil rose on Wednesday. The estimated production of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil in the 25/26 year is provided. Domestic three major oil futures prices all rose, and an oil price range - bound thinking is adopted. Attention is paid to the USDA supply - demand report on January 13th and the visit of the Canadian president to China in mid - early January [2]. - Eggs: The main contract of eggs fluctuated strongly on Wednesday, with a slight daily increase. The spot price mostly rose, and the short - term spot price continued the slight rebound trend. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the main contract can break through the long - term moving average [2][3]. - Pigs: The live - hog futures fluctuated and adjusted on Wednesday. The national live - hog price mostly rose, with local declines. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the short - term pig price can continue to rebound. It is recommended to set a dynamic stop - profit in the short term and pay attention to the technical performance of the long - term moving average of the live - hog futures main contract [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2. Market Information - Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil in January at $915.64 per ton, lower than that in December. The export tax will remain at $74 per ton, and a 10% special export tax is also levied [4]. - The estimated soybean production in Argentina in the 2025/26 year was lowered by 1% to 46 million tons, with an estimated range of 44.8 - 47.2 million tons. The current planting area is estimated to be 16.7 million hectares [4]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from late December to mid - December 2025, among 50 important production materials, 18 product prices rose, 28 declined, and 4 remained flat. The price of live hogs (ternary) increased by 1.7% [4]. - According to SPPOMA data, from December 1 - 31, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 7.39% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.13%, and the production decreased by 8.07% [4]. - OPEC+ agreed to maintain stable oil production in Q1 2026. The organization had agreed to suspend production increases in January, February, and March last November. The next meeting will be held on February 1st [5]. 3. Variety Spreads - Charts of the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, bean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live hogs are presented [7][8][12][16]

Market Overview - As of January 7, coking coal futures showed a strong upward trend, with the near-month contract rising by 51.5 (+4.75%) to 1135.0 and the main contract increasing by 68.0 (+6.2%) to 1164.0 [1] Supply - As of December 31, the capacity utilization rate of 88 sampled coal mines was 79.76%, down by 2.89% month-on-month, with raw coal production at 805.56 million tons per week, a decrease of 29.17 million tons week-on-week [2] - The inventory of raw coal stood at 222.15 million tons, up by 17.5 million tons week-on-week, while the production of premium coal was 410.26 million tons per week, down by 17.43 million tons week-on-week [2] Demand - As of December 31, the average daily output of coke from independent coking plants was 62.7 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.1 million tons week-on-week [3] - The average daily pig iron output was 227.43 million tons, up by 0.85 million tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace operating rate of 78.94%, an increase of 0.62% [3] Inventory - As of December 31, the total inventory of coking coal (including mines, washing plants, coking plants, steel mills, ports, and terminals) increased by 59.7 million tons to 4104.3 million tons [4] - The inventory at 523 mines rose by 1.5 million tons to 528.8 million tons, while the inventory at 314 washing plants increased by 1.6 million tons to 531.6 million tons [4] Market Sentiment - The strong rise in coking coal futures was noted, with the main contract hitting the limit up. However, the spot prices in Shanxi showed weak performance, and the trading environment remains cautious with high auction failure rates [5] - The supply side is seeing a slight recovery in daily coal production as mines resume operations, but sales remain sluggish, leading to inventory accumulation [5] - On the demand side, steel mills are experiencing reduced losses, and pig iron production is stable, although coking profits are declining, leading to a slight decrease in operational rates [5] Policy and Strategy - The main policy focus remains on ensuring coal supply for power plants, with reports indicating that 26 coal mines in Shaanxi may be removed from the supply guarantee list, reducing capacity by 19 million tons, pending verification [5] - The strategy suggests a wait-and-see approach until policy confirmations are made, with an emphasis on arbitrage opportunities between coking coal and coke [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The supply of soda ash is increasing and demand is weakening, which may intensify the supply - demand contradiction. However, in the short term, supported by macro - news and the sharp rise in coal prices, the price may maintain a volatile and strong trend. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [5] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures market: The main soda ash contract opened higher and moved higher, showing a strong intra - day performance. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands had an upward - opening three - rail, indicating a short - term volatile and strong signal. The upper pressure was near the 60 - week moving average, and the support was near the 60/40 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 1.521 million lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 15,426 lots. The intra - day high was 1277, the low was 1188, and the closing price was 1271, up 89 yuan/ton (7.53%) from the previous day's settlement price [1] - Spot market: The price was stable. Some plant loads increased slightly, with few maintenance expectations. The industry supply remained high. Downstream demand was average, mostly replenishing on demand and with low - price transactions [1] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was - 21 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 1, domestic soda ash production was 697,100 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons (2.07%) compared to the previous period. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 79.96%, a decrease of 1.69% compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more increased by 0.11% [2] - Inventory: As of January 5, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5084 million tons, an increase of 100,100 tons (7.11%) from the previous period [2] - Demand: Last week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises decreased by 5.87% compared to the previous period, and the overall shipment rate decreased by 4.21%. The downstream demand was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. The demand for light soda ash was relatively stable, while the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened [2] - Profit: As of January 1, the theoretical profit of the dual - alkali method was - 35.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 73.17% compared to the previous period. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali method was - 95.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66.2% compared to the previous period. The cost - side fluctuated little [3][4] Main Logic Summary The soda ash production has decreased, but the overall operating rate is relatively high. With the gradual release of new production capacity, the total output remains high. The rigid demand for soda ash has weakened, and inventory has increased. However, due to continuous losses and a warm macro - environment, there is some short - term support. The short - term price may maintain a volatile and strong trend [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil: There is a risk of a decline in the Malaysian palm oil market after breaking below 4000 ringgit. In China, the futures of Dalian palm oil are also expected to be weak in the short - term due to high port inventories and the potential weakness of Malaysian palm oil [1]. - Soybean oil: The CBOT soybean oil may be affected by related varieties. In China, the inventory of soybean oil in oil mills is decreasing, and the fundamentals are positive [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Attention should be paid to whether COFCO can start pressing on time. There may be a risk of further decline in the futures price, and the spot price fluctuates with the market [1]. 2.2 Cotton The ICE cotton futures are rising. The US cotton is expected to be volatile. In China, the cotton sales progress is faster than last year, and there are no obvious negative factors. The cotton price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [3]. 2.3 Sugar The ICE raw sugar futures are slightly rising, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In China, the sugar price is expected to be weak and volatile due to the expected increase in production [4]. 2.4 Jujube The current spot market trading of jujube is light, and the price is loose. The new - season warehouse receipt cost supports the futures price. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking and inventory reduction [6]. 2.5 Corn In the short - term, the corn price will be volatile due to the co - existence of farmers' reluctance to sell and policy supply. The price will be suppressed by policy releases and potential pre - festival selling pressure [8]. 2.6 Pork The spot price of pork has returned to a volatile pattern. The futures price is expected to be in a consolidation phase in the short - term, with limited upward space [10]. 2.7 Meal The global soybean supply is loose, and the South American soybean harvest is expected to be good. The domestic meal market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, with limited downward space [13]. 2.8 Eggs The inventory of laying hens may decrease, and the supply pressure may ease. The egg price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern due to the relatively loose supply [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8410 yuan/ton, the futures price of Y2605 decreased by 0.08% to 7856 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 1.09% to 554 yuan/ton [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong decreased by 1.16% to 8490 yuan/ton, the futures price of P2605 decreased by 1.12% to 8488 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 66.67% [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.20% to 10050 yuan/ton, the futures price of OI605 decreased by 0.47% to 9044 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 6.68% [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - The soybean - palm oil spread increased, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased [1]. 3.2 Cotton 3.2.1 Futures Market - The futures price of cotton 2605 increased by 0.48% to 14655 yuan/ton, and the futures price of cotton 2609 increased by 0.58% to 14845 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 0.32% to 15442 yuan/ton, and the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.38% to 15615 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.3 Industry Situation - Industrial inventory, imports, and cotton outbound transportation volume increased, while textile industry inventory decreased [3]. 3.3 Sugar 3.3.1 Futures Market - The futures price of sugar 2605 increased by 0.11% to 5257 yuan/ton, and the futures price of sugar 2609 increased by 0.06% to 5269 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Nanning decreased by 0.37% to 5330 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming decreased by 0.19% to 5200 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3.3 Industry Situation - National and regional sugar production and sales decreased, and the inventory in some regions decreased [4]. 3.4 Jujube 3.4.1 Futures Price - The futures price of jujube 2601 increased by 1.82% to 9250 yuan/ton, and the futures price of jujube 2605 decreased by 0.11% to 8955 yuan/ton [6]. 3.4.2 Spot Price - The spot price of Cangzhou super - grade jujube decreased by 0.63% to 9460 yuan/ton, and the spot price of first - grade jujube remained unchanged at 8200 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Corn 3.5.1 Corn - The futures price of corn 2603 decreased by 0.09% to 2224 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 17.31% [8]. 3.5.2 Corn Starch - The futures price of corn starch 2603 decreased by 0.24% to 2509 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 10.91% [8]. 3.6 Pork 3.6.1 Futures Market - The futures price of the main contract decreased by 25.86% to 1190 yuan/ton, and the futures price of live hogs 2605 decreased by 0.45% to 12110 yuan/ton [10]. 3.6.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Henan decreased by 550 yuan/ton to 12850 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Shandong decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 12900 yuan/ton [10]. 3.6.3 Spot Indicators - The slaughter volume increased by 0.07% to 225069 heads, and the self - breeding and reproduction profit increased by 73.41% [10]. 3.7 Meal 3.7.1 Price Changes - The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3100 yuan/ton, and the futures price of M2605 increased by 0.18% to 2754 yuan/ton [13]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu increased by 0.41% to 2440 yuan/ton, and the futures price of RM2605 decreased by 0.17% to 2361 yuan/ton [13]. 3.7.2 Spread Changes - The soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased, and the oil - meal ratio decreased slightly [13]. 3.8 Eggs 3.8.1 Futures Market - The futures price of egg 03 increased by 1.39% to 2992 yuan/500KG, and the futures price of egg 04 increased by 1.15% to 3214 yuan/500KG [15]. 3.8.2 Spot Market - The egg产区 price increased by 0.23% to 3.02 yuan/jin [15]. 3.8.3 Related Indicators - The egg - feed ratio decreased by 2.08%, and the breeding profit decreased by 13.96% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy - chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and investment suggestions for each product [2]. - Different products have different market outlooks, such as short - term high - level consolidation, upward movement of the central price range, and limited upward space [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Trends**: PX is in a short - term high - level consolidation market; PTA is in a high - level consolidation market; MEG has limited upward space and medium - term pressure [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: PX domestic supply increases, PTA device restarts, and MEG has high domestic supply and increasing port arrivals [5][7][8]. - **Investment Suggestions**: PX holds positive spreads; PTA maintains positive spreads; MEG conducts reverse spreads on monthly spreads [7][8]. Rubber - **Market Trends**: The rubber market is oscillating strongly [2][9]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and positions increase, and overseas raw material prices rise [9]. - **Industry News**: Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increases, and domestic production areas enter the off - season [10][11]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Trends**: The short - term central price range moves upward [2][12]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, trading volumes increase, and the price of raw material butadiene goes up [12]. - **Industry News**: The inventory of domestic butadiene in ports increases, and the inventory of domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber decreases [13]. LLDPE - **Market Trends**: The standard product production decreases, and the spot is firm [2][15]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the inventory shifts to the middle - stream [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The raw material price stabilizes and rebounds, and the supply and demand face medium - term pressure [16]. PP - **Market Trends**: There are few ongoing maintenance projects, and the basis weakens passively [2][18]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the spot sales pressure is moderate [18]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost is high, the demand is weak, and the overall fundamentals have limited support [19]. Caustic Soda - **Market Trends**: It is strong in the short - term and oscillating in the medium - term [2][20]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price is weakly stable [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term decline is limited, and there may be a short - term rebound, but the overall supply and demand situation is not optimistic [22]. Pulp - **Market Trends**: The pulp market is oscillating strongly [2][25]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the price of broad - leaf pulp increases [27][28]. - **Industry News**: The downstream demand is rigid, and the price of household paper may be range - bound [29]. Glass - **Market Trends**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][30]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise slightly, and the spot price is stable [31]. - **Market Analysis**: The holiday atmosphere is strong, and the sales of enterprises are average [31]. Methanol - **Market Trends**: It is strong in the short - term [2][33]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and positions increase, and the spot price rises in some regions [34][36]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts and inventory expectations, it is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the MTO fundamentals are weak [37]. Urea - **Market Trends**: The central price range moves upward [2][38]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the inventory of enterprises decreases [39][40]. - **Market Analysis**: The demand improvement drives the price up, but the upward strength needs dynamic observation [41]. Styrene - **Market Trends**: It is in short - term oscillation [2][45]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the current valuation is high [43][44]. - **Market Analysis**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels, and there is pressure in the first quarter [44][46]. Soda Ash - **Market Trends**: The spot market changes little [2][47]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise slightly, and the supply is high while the demand is tepid [48]. LPG, Propylene - **Market Trends**: LPG has a firm import cost, and propylene's demand is stable with a slight price increase [2][51]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the operating rates of relevant industries change [51]. PVC - **Market Trends**: It is strong in the short - term but has limited upward space [2][59]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the spot price increases [60]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost support and maintenance expectations drive the price up, but high inventory and weak demand limit the increase [61]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Trends**: Fuel oil turns strong and is prone to rise and hard to fall in the short - term; low - sulfur fuel oil follows the upward trend [2][64]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the spot price increases [64]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Market Trends**: The 02 contract subsidizes the premium, and the far - month contracts focus on premium subsidies and geopolitical events [2][66]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the shipping capacity and freight rates change [66][72]. - **Market Analysis**: The valuation of the 02 contract rises, and the 04 contract may provide a suitable short - selling ratio after the premium subsidy [73][74]. Short - Fiber, Bottle Chip - **Market Trends**: They are in short - term oscillation [2][76]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices and spot prices change, and the short - fiber sales rate improves [76]. Offset Printing Paper - **Market Trends**: It is advisable to wait and see [2][79]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price is stable, and the cost and profit change slightly [79]. - **Market Analysis**: The market demand is weak, and the trading is light [80][82]. Pure Benzene - **Market Trends**: It is in short - term oscillation [2][83]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the port inventory increases [83][84].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 07 日 纸浆：震荡偏强 20260107 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.612 | 5, 530 | +82 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.614 | 5.544 | +70 | | | | 成交量(手) | 374.040 | 223. 450 | +150. 590 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量(手) | 220, 737 | 213, 721 | +7.016 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 131, 054 | 115. 576 | +15, 478 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -23.717 | -23.560 | -157 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | -12 | 70 | -82 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -892 | -830 | -62 | | | 月差 ...

| | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2601 | 6448 | 6400 | 48 | PF01-02 | -84 | -62 | -22 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6532 | 6462 | 70 | PF02-03 | 0 | -56 | 56 | | | 短纤2603 | 6532 | 6518 | 14 | PF主力基差 | 3 | 53 | -50 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 165849 | 173239 | -7390 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 535 | 6.515 | 20 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 131998 | 153152 | -21154 | 短纤产销率 | 77% | 53% | 24% | | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | 瓶片2601 | 0 | 5810 | -5810 | PR01-02 | -6066 | -132 | -5.934 ...