Economic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index indicates a continued recovery in the Chinese economy, with the consumption index showing a narrowing contraction, reflecting stable domestic demand and improving consumer confidence[1] - The investment index is in the expansion zone, driven by policy support for infrastructure and manufacturing investments, providing strong support for economic recovery[1] - The production index shows mild expansion, indicating a moderate recovery in production activities with strong supply-side resilience[1] Service and Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index stands at 50.0%, indicating overall stability, with tourism and public services maintaining expansion due to summer holidays[2] - The manufacturing PMI has dropped to 49.3%, remaining in contraction territory, primarily due to seasonal factors and external uncertainties[2] - The new orders index for manufacturing fell to 49.4%, and new export orders dropped to 47.1%, indicating weakened domestic and external demand[2] Global Economic Context - In Q2 2025, the US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3%, exceeding market expectations of 2.6%, rebounding from a -0.5% growth in Q1[5] - The US net exports contributed 5 percentage points to GDP growth, while consumer spending increased by 1.4%[5] - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and raised inflation forecasts for the next two fiscal years, with core CPI expected to reach 2.7% in FY2025[6]

当特朗普终于就任美国总统后，经济依然是他最关注的问题之一。他在多次场合强调自己是亿万富翁，有能力带领国家走向繁荣。因此，他对股市和各项经 济指标的关注可想而知。他多次要求美联储主席鲍威尔降息，甚至不惜采取威胁的方式，指责鲍威尔在美联储大楼装修上花费过多，暗示可能的腐败。这一 切，无非是为了将利率压低，进而释放市场资金，推动经济复苏，以形成自己的政绩。 然而，此次鲍威尔不仅没有降息的意愿，还显得对特朗普的关税政策十分反感，认为这一政策把经济搞得一团糟，通胀压力即将来临。因此，他坚决拒绝了 降息的请求。面对这些不如意的消息，特朗普显得十分愤怒。他的处理方式还是一如既往地强硬，既然没有办法改变数据，那就通过开除相关负责人的方式 来解决问题。即便是一位在统计学领域相当资深的专家，似乎也无法逃脱被解雇的命运。在这样的环境下，即便是事实真相也无法改变特朗普的决策，而他 开除官员的消息往往通过社交媒体随意发布，下面的工作人员则机械地执行着这一命令。 由此可见，当人们在特朗普的领导下工作，似乎并不容易，确切地说，他们的处境常常非常艰难。股票市场上的波动、不断变化的经济政策，以及特朗普时 不时的决定，让员工在极大的压力下工作。 ...

周一（8月4日）亚市早盘，澳元兑美元上涨，目前交投于0.64附近，截止北京时间11:25分，澳元/美元 报价0.6481，上涨0.19%，上一交易日澳元/美元收盘报0.6468。澳大利亚最新经济数据显示出令人鼓舞 的内需韧性，7月零售销售数据超预期增长，为澳元提供了坚实支撑。 从当前澳元兑美元日线图来看，汇价在触及阶段高点0.6624后出现明显调整，短线回调动能增强。RSI 指标当前报49.5615，接近中性区，暗示汇价尚未形成超买或超卖信号；短期若RSI跌破45，则需警惕下 行风险进一步释放。 与此同时，通胀压力的持续回落为澳洲联储提供了更大的货币政策灵活性，而稳健的就业市场则进一步 巩固了经济基本面。尽管短期内美元指数的强势反弹对澳元构成压制，但分析人士指出，澳洲经济展现 出的这些结构性优势将在市场波动平息后重新主导汇率走势。多数机构认为，随着美联储加息周期接近 尾声，而澳洲经济保持相对稳健，澳元兑美元汇率有望在未来几个月获得持续上行动能。市场参与者正 密切关注即将公布的澳洲商业信心指数和就业数据，这些关键指标将进一步验证经济复苏的可持续性， 并为澳元走势提供新的指引。 ...

Group 1 - Zhang Kun has made significant adjustments to his investment strategy, moving from a heavy reliance on Kweichow Moutai to a more balanced allocation that includes Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao as top holdings [1][2][7] - The top ten holdings now account for 83.85% of the portfolio, indicating a concentrated investment approach while diversifying within the liquor sector [1] - The shift in focus suggests a reevaluation of Moutai's investment value and market elasticity, reflecting a potential downtrend in its attractiveness as an investment [2][4] Group 2 - New investments in companies like SF Express and Yum China indicate a broader strategy that encompasses macroeconomic recovery signals and consumer confidence [3][4] - The inclusion of JD Health marks a departure from previous investment interests, suggesting a search for new growth opportunities beyond traditional sectors [4][7] - The adjustments in the portfolio reflect a proactive approach to risk management and a desire to establish a "second growth curve" for the fund [4][7]

货币政策不确定性增加 欧洲央行近日宣布维持三大关键利率不变，是去年6月启动降息周期以来首次按兵不动。观察人士认 为，鉴于全球贸易局势动荡，欧洲央行将依据外部环境发展和欧美贸易协议后续进展作出调整决定。 欧洲央行在一份声明中指出，欧元区通胀率已达到2%的中期目标，同时今年前几个月的经济增长优于 预期，说明欧洲经济具有韧性，但全球贸易环境仍然呈现高度不确定性。 欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，欧元区制造业和服务业当前总体呈现温和上行趋势。劳动力市场和居民收入 数据向好对消费形成支撑，前期降息带来的融资条件逐步宽松也将促进内需增长。此外，欧盟和一些成 员国增加对国防和基础设施的公共投资，也将助力经济增长。 欧盟统计局7月30日公布的初步数据显示，受美国关税冲击影响，今年第二季度欧元区国内生产总值 （GDP）环比增长0.1%，较一季度有所放缓。分析人士指出，按照近日欧盟与美国达成的新贸易协 议，欧盟对美大部分出口将面临高关税，同时欧盟增加对美投资和能源采购，将导致自身产业竞争力削 弱和就业岗位减少，给经济增长带来制约，欧元区刚有起色的经济复苏恐难持续。 关税重压下增长乏力 欧元区经济二季度0.1%的环比增幅，创下2024年年 ...

Market Overview - On July 31, the A-share market opened lower and experienced wide fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3580 points[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3573.21 points, down 1.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11009.77 points, down 1.73%[7] - Total trading volume for both markets was 19,621 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years[3] Sector Performance - Strong performers included banking, software development, internet services, and consumer electronics, while coal, steel, energy metals, and shipbuilding sectors lagged[3] - Over 70% of stocks in the two markets declined, with chemical pharmaceuticals, software development, and internet services showing the largest gains[7] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 14.81 times and 41.76 times, respectively, indicating a mid-level valuation compared to the past three years[3] - The market is currently in a dual-driven phase of policy and capital, establishing a slow upward trend despite short-term technical adjustment pressures[3] Economic Context - China's economy continues to show moderate recovery, with consumption and investment as core drivers[3] - Long-term capital inflows are increasing, with steady growth in ETF sizes and continuous inflow from insurance funds, providing significant support[3] Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to focus on technology growth and cyclical manufacturing as dual main lines for investment, while also considering high-dividend banks, public utilities, and strategic emerging industries[3] - Short-term market expectations lean towards steady upward fluctuations, with close monitoring of policy, capital, and external market changes advised[3]

荣阳实业(02078)公布，预期该集团于2025年上半年取得亏损约2660万港元，而2024年上半年溢利约590 万港元。 公告称，转盈为亏的主要原因是：收益由2024年同期约4.339亿港元下跌至2.428亿港元，主要由于持续 地缘政治局势紧张、不断变化的贸易政策，以及在若干关键市场的预期经济复苏较慢，共同影响客户情 绪及订单量;毛利率由2024年同期的约17.2%减少至约11.8%，此乃由于订单量下降，限制了成本吸收并 增加了生产成本。 ...

金融研究 2025年7月31日 星期四 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：7 月 30 日，A 股四大股指冲高回落，其中上证指数上涨 0.17%，报收 3615.72 点；深成 指下跌 0.77%，报收 11203.03 点；创业板指下跌 1.62%，报收 2367.68 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.11%， 报收 1058.57 点。市场成交 18,710 亿元，较前日增加 417 亿元。行业板块方面，钢铁(+2.05%)，石 油石化(+1.84%)，传媒(+1%)涨幅居前；电力设备(-2.22%)，计算机(-1.59%)，汽车(-1.27%)跌幅居 前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,712/146/3,557。沪深两市，机构、主力、 大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-253、-276、85、444 亿元，分别变动-116、-140、+53、+204 亿 元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 114.28、99.29、14.84 与-0.65 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-11.19%、-10.34%、-2.35%与 0.15%，三年期历 ...

日本央行：日本经济正在温和复苏，但存在一些疲软。 ...

自从2020年经济被疫情重创，2021年主动去杠杆开始，中国经济经历了一个长期的去泡沫过程，企业保 守，居民缺钱，地方财政紧绷，整个社会进入了一种"失速"的沉寂状态。过去的这5年里，大家过得普 遍都很难受，内卷、降本、通缩、下跌，现在情况正在悄然改变了。首先发出信号的便是大宗商品的价 格，经济虽未彻底回暖，但希望已悄然萌芽。 ...