21世纪经济报道记者赖镇桃广州报道 坚决"不跪"美国的加拿大总理卡尼，带领自由党赢得了加拿大大选。 据央视新闻，当地时间4月29日凌晨，领导加拿大自由党在加拿大第45届联邦选举中取胜的加现任总理 马克·卡尼发表讲话，宣布选举获胜。 今年1月，时任总理特鲁多的民调支持率跌至低谷，黯然离场，3月9日，"政治素人"卡尼以压倒性优势 当选自由党新领导人，随后宣布解散议会提前大选。如今自由党赢得联邦众议院选举，卡尼作为议会第 一大党的领导人，预计将受到加拿大总督的邀请，出任下一任加拿大总理并组建新政府。 在胜选演讲中，卡尼表示，加拿大如今再次站在历史的转折点上，加拿大一直依赖的二战后体系的阶段 现已终结。他强调，自己将与美国总统特朗普就两个主权独立的国家之间的关系进行沟通。 面对昔日传统盟友朝自己挥起"关税大棒"，卡尼掌舵的加拿大新政府将会如何重构加美关系、带领加拿 大走出经济低迷的泥潭？ 带领自由党"逆风翻盘" 当地时间4月28日，加拿大联邦选举迎来投票日，此次大选被认为是加拿大历史上最具影响力的选举之 一。 据央视新闻报道，此次大选民众投票热情高涨，提前投票率创下历史新高。加拿大选举局称，复活节长 周末期间已有73 ...

国泰海通（601211） 2025 年一季报点评：并表海通，各主营业务 增速可观，带动扣非净利润同比增长 61% 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 36,141 | 43,397 | 67,415 | 76,533 | 83,556 | | 同比（%） | 1.89% | 20.08% | 55.35% | 13.52% | 9.18% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 9,374 | 13,024 | 26,866 | 28,047 | 32,633 | | 同比（%） | -18.54% | 38.94% | 106.28% | 4.39% | 16.35% | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.05 | 1.39 | 1.52 | 1.59 | 1.85 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 13.36 | 10.12 | 9.23 | 8.84 | 7.60 | 证券研究报告·公司点评 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.31 billion yuan, up 7.0% year-on-year, with an EPS of 0.25 yuan and ROE of 1.9%, remaining stable year-on-year [1] - The company's brokerage business revenue significantly increased to 1.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 49.0%, accounting for 42.5% of total operating revenue [1] Group 2: Market Activity - The average daily trading volume in the stock market reached 1.7031 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 70.3% [1] - The company's margin financing and securities lending balance was 100.1 billion yuan, up 24% from the beginning of the year, with a market share of 5.2% [1] Group 3: Investment Banking Performance - Investment banking revenue for Q1 2025 was 190 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 112.0% [2] - The company's equity underwriting scale was 3.51 billion yuan, down 57.5% year-on-year, ranking 8th in the industry [2] - The bond underwriting scale was 75.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.0% year-on-year, ranking 13th in the industry [2] Group 4: Asset Management and Investment Income - Asset management revenue rose to 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.9% [3] - The company's asset management scale was 282.2 billion yuan at the end of 2024, down 4.3% year-on-year [3] - Investment income for Q1 2025 was 1.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.2% [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 12.3 billion, 13.1 billion, and 14.0 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 18%, 7%, and 7% respectively [3] - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing capital market reforms and a gradual economic recovery, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

■■ 回顾：亚太股市重拾外资关注 在特朗普新政与美国经济走弱的预期影响下，逆向投资成为了2025年一季度最有效的投资策略。过去两年大 幅上涨的美日股市收跌，而恒生指数领跑亚太。欧洲国家在财政赤字扩大和俄乌冲突停火可能性上升的背景 下领跑发达国家股市。此外Deepseek等AI agent获得了更广泛的市场关注，并带动全球科技投资者进行国别 资产再平衡，这成为了推动中国科技股表现的另外一个因素。 基于美国经济走弱、美联储政策摇摆以及特朗普政府带动地缘风险升温这三点因素，我们认为国际资金将持 续出现交易一致性的松动，国际投资者将开始尝试寻求美国资产以外的备选投资方案。我们认为国际资本流 出美股所面临的"资产荒"将成为影响二季度全球股市最重要的驱动因素，面对诸多不确定性，具备资金规模 容量优势的中国股市（A股及港股）有望成为外资全球配置的重要选项。此外，当前基本面的改善趋势仍未 成为市场共识，且市场仍需要更充分的数据验证经济的复苏趋势，因此我们认为资金面的变化在二季度将较 基本面有更强的定价权。虽然海外地缘不确定性将加剧市场的波动率水平，但资金面改善将有望通过估值扩 张带动A股市场走强。 下调对沪深300的净利润增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The active equity mutual funds have shown exceptional performance in the first quarter of 2025, achieving the best returns in nearly five years, with a notable consensus in industry allocation between domestic and foreign investors [2][6]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Trends - Active equity funds' management scale increased to 34,455.19 billion yuan in Q1 2025, marking a recovery after a prolonged decline since Q2 2022 [3][4]. - The number of newly launched active equity funds rose to 53, with a total scale of 16.499 billion yuan, indicating a slight improvement in the new fund market [4][5]. - The overall stock position of active equity funds increased by 0.37 percentage points to 85.47% in Q1 2025, reflecting a high level of investment activity [7]. Group 2: Industry Allocation Insights - Active equity funds significantly increased their positions in the automotive, non-ferrous metals, and electronics sectors, while reducing exposure to power equipment, telecommunications, public utilities, transportation, and coal [7][8]. - The consensus between domestic and foreign investors on increasing allocations to automotive, non-ferrous metals, and electronics indicates a shared recognition of these sectors' growth potential and investment value [8][9]. Group 3: Market Drivers and Future Outlook - The recovery in the automotive sector is supported by domestic consumption stimulus policies, while the non-ferrous metals sector benefits from global supply constraints and the growth of the new energy industry [8][9]. - The electronics sector is experiencing a resurgence due to the global semiconductor recovery and the rapid development of AI and other emerging technologies, enhancing industry expectations [9][10]. - The long-term importance of equity assets in investment portfolios is increasingly recognized, contributing to the warming of the new fund market [5][9].

南方财经全媒体记者 庞成 广州报道 近日，正在候场IPO的东莞银行发布2024年年度报告。 报告显示，2024年，东莞银行实现营业收入101.97亿元，同比下降3.69%；实现净利润37.33亿元，同比 下降8.20%。这是该行近五年来，首度出现营收、净利"双降"。 截至2024年末，该行资产总额6727.30亿元，较上年末增加438.05亿元，增幅6.97%；贷款余额3655.53亿 元，较上年末增加378.26亿元，增幅11.54%。 资产质量方面，截至2024年末，该行不良贷款率1.01%，较上年小幅上升0.08个百分点；拨备覆盖率 212.01%，较上年下降了40.85个百分点。 值得注意的是，据年报披露，2025年1月20日，该行原第四大股东东莞市鸿中投资有限公司将其所持有 的该行约1.05亿股股权全部转让给东莞市莞城福好企业投资有限公司，占该行总股本的4.48%，莞城福 好企业实际控制人为东莞市国资委。该行前三大股东分别为东莞市财政局、东莞市虎门镇投资管理服务 中心、东莞市大中实业有限公司，持股比例分别为21.16%、4.97%、4.64%。本次股权转让完成后，东 莞银行的国有股份比例由此前的37 ...

➢ 在宽货币向宽信用传导的复苏初期，流动性逻辑主导，小盘成长风格 占优。 在经济复苏初期，央行会率先进行宽货币，而财政政策出台速度偏缓，落 地推进的节奏相对落后。因此实体经济需求的复苏往往会滞后于货币供应 的增加，使得大量流动性留存于金融体系中，造成剩余流动性的抬升。同 时由于政策底已现，市场风险偏好改善，叠加小盘成长股的业绩弹性更佳， 因此这个阶段市场会给予小盘成长股高估值。 回顾过去 10 年 A 股的表现，市场在 2-3 月（春季躁动）以及 4 月（四月 决断） 有鲜明的季节性效应。这具体表现为 2-3 月主题投资活跃，小盘、 成长风格占优，而进入 4 月，蓝筹、绩优股票表现相对稳健。但"四月决 断"后，市场风格似乎并未体现出明显的规律，以过去十年指数在 5 月的 表现来看，小盘成长跑赢沪深 300 的概率恰为 50%。事实上，若跳出季节 性框架，结合中国经济周期与海外美元周期的双维度视角，可以挖掘风格 切换的线索。 证券研究报告·策略报告·策略周评 策略周评 20250427 "四月决断"后，风格如何选择？ 2025 年 04 月 27 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ "四月决断"后，风格将会 ...

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略周评 策略周评 20250427 "四月决断"后，风格如何选择？ 2025 年 04 月 27 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ "四月决断"后，风格将会如何切换？ 回顾过去 10 年 A 股的表现，市场在 2-3 月（春季躁动）以及 4 月（四月 决断） 有鲜明的季节性效应。这具体表现为 2-3 月主题投资活跃，小盘、 成长风格占优，而进入 4 月，蓝筹、绩优股票表现相对稳健。但"四月决 断"后，市场风格似乎并未体现出明显的规律，以过去十年指数在 5 月的 表现来看，小盘成长跑赢沪深 300 的概率恰为 50%。事实上，若跳出季节 性框架，结合中国经济周期与海外美元周期的双维度视角，可以挖掘风格 切换的线索。 ➢ 在宽货币向宽信用传导的复苏初期，流动性逻辑主导，小盘成长风格 占优。 在经济复苏初期，央行会率先进行宽货币，而财政政策出台速度偏缓，落 地推进的节奏相对落后。因此实体经济需求的复苏往往会滞后于货币供应 的增加，使得大量流动性留存于金融体系中，造成剩余流动性的抬升。同 时由于政策底已现，市场风险偏好改善，叠加小盘成长股的业绩弹性更佳， 因此这个阶段市场会给予小盘成长 ...

Core Viewpoint - Changshu Bank achieved double-digit growth in both revenue and profit in Q1 2025, despite a slight slowdown in scale growth due to weak credit demand. The recovery of the economy is expected to improve demand from small and micro enterprises, providing significant room for credit expansion. Although the net interest margin continues to narrow under asset-side pressure, the ongoing optimization of deposit costs is expected to support the margin. The bank is projected to maintain high single-digit revenue growth and double-digit profit release in 2025. The current low dividend rate has suppressed the bank's valuation, which does not align with its strong fundamentals, indicating substantial potential for valuation recovery if the dividend rate improves in the future [1][10][11]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Changshu Bank reported operating revenue of 2.971 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.084 billion yuan, up 13.9% year-on-year. The non-performing loan ratio was 0.76%, down 1 basis point quarter-on-quarter, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 11 percentage points to 489.6% [2][3][9]. Revenue Composition - The bank's net interest income grew by 0.9% year-on-year, reflecting stable growth despite weak credit demand, particularly in small and micro loans. Non-interest income surged by 495.2%, driven by significant growth in fees from insurance and precious metals. Other non-interest income increased by 48.8%, supported by a rise in foreign exchange gains [3][4][5]. Credit Demand and Loan Growth - Credit demand remains weak, leading to a slowdown in loan growth. In Q1 2025, the loan scale increased by 6.1% year-on-year, with corporate loans growing by 7.3% and retail loans by only 0.2%. The bank's strategy of focusing on small and scattered loans has allowed it to maintain a stable loan portfolio despite the challenging environment [5][6][8]. Deposit and Funding Strategy - Changshu Bank's deposits grew by 9% year-on-year, with a notable increase in demand deposits and a reduction in high-cost savings. The bank's proactive management of deposit structure has improved the cost of funding, which is expected to support the net interest margin [7][8]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains low, and it has effectively managed retail asset quality through rigorous risk control and increased write-offs. The non-performing loan ratio is expected to remain stable, allowing for a gradual release of provisions to support profit growth [9][10]. Valuation and Investment Outlook - Despite strong fundamentals, Changshu Bank's current valuation is significantly undervalued at 0.68 times the 2025 PB ratio. The low dividend yield has constrained its valuation, but there is substantial potential for recovery if the dividend rate improves. The bank is expected to maintain high single-digit revenue growth and double-digit profit growth in the coming years [10][11].