Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side changes are expected to be the dominant factor in future oil prices, and the demand side lacks significant growth potential. Brent oil prices are expected to oscillate at a low level in the range of $60 - 75 per barrel [3]. - The short - term fundamentals of PTA are stronger than those of PX, with PXN expected to run weakly and PTA processing fees having a slight recovery [3]. - Short - term ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, with a risk of supply - demand gap under low inventory and a far - month inventory accumulation expectation [4]. - In the short term, pure benzene demand support is weak, BZN weakens, and styrene oscillates weakly [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply side: OPEC+ maintains the production increase policy, and non - OPEC+ supply in South America is expected to gradually increase. Geopolitically, Russian energy facilities have been attacked, and there is a possibility of upgraded sanctions by Europe and the United States [3]. - Demand side: It lacks significant growth potential drivers. The market has anticipated the supply increase, but inventory has not significantly accumulated, and the risk of oversupply needs verification [3]. - Price forecast: Brent oil prices are expected to oscillate at a low level in the range of $60 - 75 per barrel [3]. PX & PTA - PX: The domestic and Asian PX capacity utilization rates are at a high level, and the PX - naphtha spread has weakened. PXN is expected to run weakly due to factors such as high - level naphtha prices and lackluster downstream performance [3][7]. - PTA: There have been many changes in PTA devices. The processing fees have been slightly repaired, and the inventory has been slightly reduced. The supply - demand pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term, and the short - term fundamentals are stronger than those of PX [3]. MEG - Supply: The weekly MEG capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the port inventory has slightly increased, but it is difficult to be sustained within the month. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in the far - month [4][17]. - Demand: The downstream polyester load has slightly increased, and the demand in the traditional peak season has slightly improved, but the industry chain has a cautious expectation for future demand [4]. - Price forecast: Short - term prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [4]. BZ & EB - Pure benzene: The pure benzene capacity utilization rate is at a high level, with large supply pressure due to new capacity. The downstream demand support is weak, and BZN weakens [4][28]. - Styrene: The styrene capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly. There will be new capacity released in September - October, and the supply is expected to gradually increase. The demand side is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4][28]. Polyester Industry - Capacity utilization rate: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the domestic polyester industry has decreased slightly, while the comprehensive starting rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has increased. The terminal weaving orders have increased, and the factory inventory has decreased [23]. - Demand expectation: The downstream demand has improved, but the industry chain is cautious about future demand due to unclear trends in tariffs and exchange rates [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - PVC开工率环比下降，下游开工率窄幅上升，但因下游消耗有限，社会库存持续增长且压力偏高 [3] - 电石价格上涨带动电石法成本环比上升，目前电石法、乙烯法工艺持续亏损 [3] - 短期暂无新增检修计划，受部分装置重启影响，本周PVC产能利用率预计环比上升；新产能投放在即，中长期加大行业供应压力 [3] - 临近国庆长假，国内部分下游已完成备货，PVC需求预计边际减弱；终端地产市场偏弱，持续拖累国内需求 [3] - 印度PVC反倾销政策预计即将落地，出口市场观望为主，社会库存压力偏高，后市难去化 [3] - 近期电石供需博弈，价格预计持稳整理；乙烯法成本预计变化不大；短期供需偏弱给V2601盘面压力，技术上关注4830附近支撑线支撑 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - 聚氯乙烯（PVC）收盘价为4919元/吨，环比上涨28元/吨；成交量为902670手，环比增加54062手；持仓量为1111748手，环比减少12387手 [3] - 期货前20名持仓中，买单量为864420手，环比增加19389手；卖单量为952064手，环比增加4665手；净买单量为 - 87644手，环比增加14724手 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - 华东地区乙烯法PVC价格为5000元/吨，环比下降10元/吨；电石法PVC价格为4746.92元/吨，环比下降38.85元/吨 [3] - 华南地区乙烯法PVC价格为4970元/吨，环比下降30元/吨；电石法PVC价格为4815元/吨，环比下降36.88元/吨 [3] - 中国PVC到岸价为700美元/吨，东南亚到岸价为650美元/吨，西北欧离岸价为710美元/吨，均无环比变化；基差为 - 179元/吨，环比下降28元/吨 [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - 华中、华北、西北电石主流均价分别为2800元/吨、2768.33元/吨、2610元/吨，均无环比变化；内蒙液氯主流价为 - 350元/吨，无环比变化 [3] - VCM、EDC在CFR远东和CFR东南亚的中间价均无环比变化 [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - 聚氯乙烯（PVC）开工率为76.96%，环比下降2.98%；其中电石法开工率为76.89%，环比下降2.5%；乙烯法开工率为77.12%，环比下降4.19% [3] - 社会库存总计53.46万吨，环比增加0.3万吨；华东地区总计48.21万吨，环比增加0.38万吨；华南地区总计5.25万吨，环比减少0.08万吨 [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - 国房景气指数为93.05，环比下降0.29；房屋新开工面积累计值为39801.01万平方米，环比增加4595.01万平方米；房地产施工面积累计值为643108.94万平方米，环比增加4377.94万平方米；房地产开发投资完成额累计值为31693.94亿元，环比增加3588.01亿元 [3] 3.6 Option Market - 20日历史波动率为9.49%，环比下降0.32%；40日历史波动率为11.22%，环比上升0.16% [3] - 平值看跌期权隐含波动率和平值看涨期权隐含波动率均为14.21%，环比上升0.55% [3] 3.7 Industry News - 9月13 - 19日，PVC产能利用率环比下降2.98%至76.96%；下游开工率环比上升1.69%至49.19%，其中管材开工率环比上升1.52%至39.13%，型材开工率环比上升0.21%至39.43% [3] - 截至9月18日，PVC社会库存在95.37万吨，环比上周上升2.03% [3] - 9月13 - 19日，电石法周度平均成本环比上升至5230元/吨，乙烯法周度平均成本上升至5631元/吨；电石法周度利润环比下降155元/吨至657元/吨，乙烯法周度利润环比上升20元/吨至 - 652元/吨 [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Futures continued to be weak, dampening market sentiment. Traders reduced prices to promote sales, leading to a decline in spot prices. Downstream buyers mainly purchased on - demand. The market was in a state of low - level weak oscillation due to limited demand drive and insufficient market confidence [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market**: L2601 opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 7105 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (-0.67%), with a trading volume of 180,000 lots and an increase in positions by 8837 lots to 589,676 lots. PP2601 closed at 6842 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan (-0.77%), with an increase in positions by 7134 lots to 654,200 lots [5][6]. - **Supply - side**: For polypropylene, the upstream maintenance level exceeded expectations, with more shutdown devices, resulting in a decline in capacity utilization and output. Due to the recent strengthening of propane prices, the profit of PDH plants continued to be compressed, and the operating load rate declined, alleviating supply - side pressure. Some maintenance plants will restart this week, and output may increase month - on - month. For PE, the maintenance volume declined from the high level, and the supply pressure increased month - on - month [6]. - **Demand - side**: Except for the increase in the operating rate of agricultural film, most other fields remained flat. The peak - season performance was lower than expected, and the downstream operating rate and orders were at a relatively low level year - on - year. Factories were cautious in raw material procurement, showing a situation of "peak season without prosperity", which had limited support for the raw material market. The destocking rhythm of social inventory in the middle stream was slow, and it was difficult to push up prices [6]. - **Macro - aspect**: The expectation of interest rate cuts was implemented, but the chemical sector showed a flat performance. There was still some support from the increasing demand for packaging products near the double festivals, but due to insufficient market confidence, there was no large - scale replenishment behavior, and the demand drive was limited [6]. 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: On September 23, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 680,000 tons, a cumulative increase of 50,000 tons from the previous working day, an increase of 7.94%. The inventory in the same period last year was 810,000 tons [7]. - **PE Market**: The PE market price weakened and declined. The LLDPE price in North China was 7060 - 7400 yuan/ton, in East China was 7150 - 7650 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton [7]. - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6450 - 6520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The market supply trend increased, and producers still had the intention to sell at a discounted price. The propylene quotations mostly declined slightly, and downstream factories purchased at low prices. The low - end transactions in the market were acceptable [7]. - **PP Market**: The PP market continued to decline, with a decline range of 10 - 70 yuan/ton. The new orders of downstream factories were limited, and the pre - festival procurement enthusiasm was insufficient. The mainstream price of North China drawstring was 6690 - 6780 yuan/ton, in East China was 6700 - 6840 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6650 - 6830 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, two - oil inventory year - on - year increase or decrease rate, L basis, and PP basis, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [11][13][14]

Group 1 - The motorcycle industry in China is facing significant challenges, with a current capacity utilization rate of only 39.85%, compared to 72.2% in the automotive industry [3][4] - The "ban and limit motorcycle" policies in over 100 cities are restricting market growth, with industry experts calling for a reevaluation of these regulations [3][9] - The 2025 China International Motorcycle Expo showcased a growth in exhibitors, with 950 participating companies, indicating a potential for industry recovery despite current market struggles [3][4] Group 2 - Motorcycle sales in China have declined from 20.19 million units in 2021 to 19.92 million units in 2024, representing a decrease of over one-third compared to the peak sales of over 30 million units in 2007 [4][5] - Exports of Chinese motorcycles have increased, with figures rising from 8.97 million units in 2021 to 11.02 million units in 2024, primarily targeting markets in Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia [5][6] - The introduction of a 35% tariff on motorcycles by the Mexican government, effective by the end of 2026, poses a new challenge for Chinese motorcycle exports [7][8] Group 3 - The new national standard for electric bicycles, effective from September 1, 2025, may lead to a significant decline in sales and further reduce the industry's capacity utilization [9][10] - The demand for motorcycles, especially high-displacement models, remains strong in cities like Wuhan, despite strict regulations that hinder consumption [10][11] - If motorcycle bans are lifted in over 100 cities, it is estimated that domestic sales could increase by 3 to 5 million units annually, with electric motorcycles and light motorcycles exceeding 40 million units [11]

Core Viewpoint - The motorcycle industry in China is facing significant challenges due to restrictive policies and declining domestic sales, while there is potential for growth in the electric motorcycle segment and overseas markets [2][3][11]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The current capacity utilization rate of the motorcycle industry is only 39.85%, significantly lower than the automotive industry's 72.2% for 2024 [3][5]. - The motorcycle market has seen a decline in sales, with figures dropping from 20.19 million units in 2021 to 19.92 million units in 2024, representing a decrease of over one-third compared to the peak of over 30 million units in 2007 [6][7]. - The "ban and limit" policies in various cities are seen as a major constraint on market growth, alongside the mandatory scrappage policy from 2013 [3][11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The 2025 China International Motorcycle Expo showcased a growth in exhibitors, with 950 participating companies, an 8% increase from 2024, indicating a search for transformation within the industry [4]. - The electric motorcycle segment is gaining traction, with a 60% increase in exhibitors compared to the previous year, reflecting a shift towards electric mobility solutions [11]. - The new national standard for electric bicycles, effective from September 1, 2025, imposes stricter safety requirements, which may impact sales and production capacity in the electric motorcycle sector [12]. Group 3: Export Opportunities and Challenges - China’s motorcycle exports have increased from 8.97 million units in 2021 to 11.02 million units in 2024, with significant exports to Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia [7][8]. - However, increasing global economic uncertainties and potential tariffs, such as a proposed 35% tariff on motorcycles exported to Mexico, pose risks to export growth [8][9]. - The lack of a mature overseas operational system for Chinese motorcycle companies limits their competitiveness in international markets, particularly against established Japanese brands [9]. Group 4: Future Growth Potential - If motorcycle bans are lifted in over 100 cities, with each city selling over 50,000 units, it is estimated that domestic sales could increase by 3 to 5 million units annually, with electric motorcycles and light motorcycles exceeding 40 million units [2][13]. - The average price of a motorcycle is around 15,000 yuan, which could significantly stimulate consumer spending and related markets, such as safety gear and tourism [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the subsidy for liquid chlorine in Shandong was alleviated, but due to the significant decline in caustic soda prices, the profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong contracted on a month - on - month basis. The chlor - alkali maintenance plan in September was basically fulfilled. This week, multiple units such as Xinpu Chemical, Gansu Jinchuan, and Heilongjiang Haohua will restart, which is expected to drive the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda to rise on a month - on - month basis [3]. - The profit of alumina continued to shrink. Although enterprises have not yet cut production due to cost, their purchasing intention has weakened significantly. The terminal demand in the traditional peak season is average, and non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices. Considering the relatively loose supply of liquid caustic soda during the pre - National Day replenishment period for downstream, the spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is expected to remain under pressure [3][4]. - In the futures market, there are still expectations for anti - involution and restocking of new alumina plants. There is a game between weak reality and strong expectations. SH2601 is expected to fluctuate widely, and the main basis may remain negative. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of new alumina production capacity in the future. The short - term operating range of SH2601 is expected to be around 2580 - 2680 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2604 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan/ton; the contract closing prices of caustic soda for January and May were 2604 yuan/ton and 2696 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 37 yuan/ton and 27 yuan/ton [3]. - The position of the main caustic soda contract was 114,144 lots, an increase of 12,443 lots; the trading volume was 477,688 lots, an increase of 35,228 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures was - 11,026 lots, a decrease of 14,988 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 940 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was - 104 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The price of steam coal was 642 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 150 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 0 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,120 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina was 2950 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From September 12th to 18th, the average national caustic soda capacity utilization rate was 81.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. As of September 18th, the national liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 6.02% month - on - month to 378,300 tons, and the trend changed from decreasing to increasing [3]. - From September 13th to 19th, the alumina operating rate increased by 1.02% month - on - month to 86.23%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.75% month - on - month to 89.52%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 65.76% [3]. - Due to the impact of the shutdown and maintenance of multiple domestic units last week, the capacity utilization rates in various regions decreased to varying degrees. SH2601 fluctuated and declined, closing at 2604 yuan/ton. From September 12th to 18th, the profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong decreased to 328 yuan/ton [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market shows a complex situation. In the short - term, there is a game between weak supply - demand and cost support. The V2601 daily K - line is concerned about the support near 4900 yuan/ton. - The PVC social inventory continues to increase, with high pressure. The terminal real - estate market is weak, dragging down domestic demand. The Indian anti - dumping policy on PVC is expected to be implemented soon, and the export market is in a wait - and - see state. - Currently, both calcium carbide and ethylene processes are in continuous losses. There are no planned new maintenance devices in the short term, and the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to increase this week due to the restart of some devices. New capacity is about to be put into production, increasing the long - term supply pressure [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of PVC (V2601) is 4938 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the trading volume is 824910 hands, up 36539 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 104363 hands, down 2087 hands [3]. - **Spot Market**: In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5010 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4786.54 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4851.25 yuan/ton, up 19.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 dollars/ton (unchanged), and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 dollars/ton (unchanged) [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central, northern, and northwestern regions has increased. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia remains unchanged at - 575 yuan/ton. The intermediate prices of VCM and EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia remain unchanged [3]. - **Industrial Situation**: The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.96%, down 2.98%. The social inventory of PVC is 53.46 tons, up 0.3 tons [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.26. The cumulative values of new housing construction area, real - estate construction area, and real - estate development investment have all increased [3]. - **Option Market**: The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of PVC have decreased. The implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options have increased slightly [3]. 3.2. Industry News - From September 13th to 19th, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.98% to 76.96%, and the downstream operating rate increased by 1.69% to 49.19%. Among them, the operating rate of pipes increased by 1.52% to 39.13%, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 0.21% to 39.43% [3]. - As of September 18th, the PVC social inventory was 95.37 tons, up 2.03% from the previous week. The weekly average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased to 5230 yuan/ton, and the weekly average cost of ethylene - based PVC increased to 5631 yuan/ton. The weekly profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 155 yuan/ton to 657 yuan/ton, and the weekly profit of ethylene - based PVC increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 652 yuan/ton [3].

Group 1 - The State Council is researching standards and policies for government procurement of domestic products, which is seen as an important measure to improve the procurement system and ensure fair competition [1] - The People's Bank of China announced adjustments to the 14-day reverse repurchase operations to maintain liquidity and meet funding needs, with operations determined by liquidity management [1] - In the steel industry, there has been an increase in the scale of maintenance at steel mills, with 12 provinces involved, affecting production by approximately 29.96 million tons this week [1] Group 2 - In the soybean meal sector, actual soybean crushing volume reached 2.4275 million tons with an operating rate of 67.76%, which is 30,100 tons higher than estimated [1] - The lithium carbonate price index for battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 73,534 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 70 yuan [1] - The PVC industry shows a capacity utilization rate of 76.96%, down 2.98% from the previous period, with specific methods showing varying declines [1] Group 3 - The styrene industry reported a daily profit of -411 yuan per ton for non-integrated units, indicating an increase in losses compared to the previous working day [1] - As of September 19, the Shanghai export container freight index was reported at 1,198.21 points, a decrease of 199.90 points from the previous period [1] - Citigroup forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will drop to $60 per barrel by the end of 2025, with an average of $62 per barrel in the second to fourth quarters of 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Propylene futures are experiencing fluctuations, with the main contract showing a decline of 0.67% to 6400.0 yuan as of the latest report [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Analysis - In the week of September 12-18, 2025, China's propylene production reached 1.2029 million tons, an increase of 21,800 tons from the previous week, representing a growth of 1.85% [2] - The operating rates of downstream propylene factories showed mixed results, with the highest increase in the utilization rate of propylene acid products, while the largest decline was seen in epoxy propane utilization rates due to several facilities undergoing maintenance [2] - Overall, the supply and demand for propylene are relatively balanced, with maintenance activities tightening the spot market, leading to a stable futures market [2] Group 2: Price Trends and Market Sentiment - As of September 18, propylene prices in East China were quoted at 6450 yuan/ton, while prices in Shandong were at 6580 yuan/ton [3] - The overall operating rate of propylene production has decreased, with more PDH facilities shutting down, leading to reduced spot availability in Shandong [3] - The rising prices of raw material propane are providing cost support, but terminal demand remains stable, resulting in thin production profits and limited acceptance of high-priced sources by manufacturers [3]

Core Viewpoint - The double-sided coated paper industry is facing challenges due to declining demand, high inventory levels, and low production margins, despite an increase in production capacity and some recovery in supply from major producers [3][4][10]. Industry Overview - Double-sided coated paper, also known as "Dawlin paper," is a major type of cultural printing paper, primarily used in book printing [1]. - The upstream products for double-sided coated paper are pulp, with production costs heavily reliant on various types of pulp, which account for 60%-70% of the total cost [2]. - The domestic production capacity of double-sided coated paper has grown significantly from 7.89 million tons in 2010 to an expected 18 million tons by the end of 2025 [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The main downstream application for double-sided coated paper is book printing, which accounts for 88% of its usage [3]. - In 2024, the domestic production of double-sided coated paper is projected to be 10.49 million tons, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [4]. - However, the production capacity utilization rate is low, averaging 62% in 2024, with a significant drop in production observed in early 2025 due to weak market demand [7][8]. Export and Import Trends - In 2024, the import volume of double-sided coated paper is expected to be 200,000 tons, while exports are projected at 968,000 tons, resulting in a net export of 770,000 tons [3][9]. - The net export volume has decreased in 2025 compared to the previous year, indicating a slowdown in overseas demand [9]. Inventory Levels - As of September 12, 2024, the total inventory of double-sided coated paper reached a record high of 1.744 million tons, with manufacturers and traders actively reducing stock levels [10]. Profitability and Pricing - As of September 12, 2024, domestic producers are facing losses of 135 yuan per ton, with historical price fluctuations showing a maximum profit of 1,562 yuan and a minimum loss of 874 yuan per ton [11][15]. - The price of high-quality double-sided coated paper is currently between 4,500 and 4,800 yuan per ton, with expectations of continued low prices due to high supply and inventory levels [15].