中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 编辑：张澍楠 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 9月2日人民币对美元中间价报7.1089元 下调17个基点 中新网9月2日电 据中国外汇交易中心网站消息，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年9月 2日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美元对人民币7.1089元，下调17个基点。 来源：中国新闻网 图片来源：中国外汇交易中心网站 ...

同日，人民币对美元中间价7.1089，较上一交易日下调17个基点。 美元指数在98关口下方震荡，截至9时40分，报97.7622。 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)发表机构观点称，展望未来12个月，人民币前景有望在数项利好因 素支撑下进一步升值。中国出口商的结汇活动今年以来持续增加，7月份净结汇率升至2024年10月以来 最高，为人民币提供了直接支撑。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 黄冰玉 陈佳怡）9月2日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘下跌，报 7.1450，上一交易日16时30分收盘报7.1332。截至9时40分，离岸人民币对美元报7.13630。 ...

Group 1: Company Analysis - Weichai Power - Weichai Power's 2025 interim report shows significant growth in data center large-capacity engines, with nearly 600 units sold, representing a 491% year-on-year increase [4] - The company's AIDC business is rapidly developing, and the KION logistics equipment business is expected to improve profitability after management optimization [2][4] - Weichai Power's revenue for the first half of 2025 was CNY 1131.5 billion, a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 56.4 billion, down 4.4% year-on-year [3][4] Group 2: Company Analysis - Tuojing Technology - Tuojing Technology's advanced process verification equipment has successfully passed customer certification and is gradually entering the mass production phase, leading to a significant improvement in profitability [13][14] - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached CNY 1.954 billion, a year-on-year increase of 54.25%, with a net profit of CNY 38.18 million, up 91.35% year-on-year [14] - The sales gross margin for Q2 2025 was 38.82%, indicating a clear upward trend in profitability [14] Group 3: Company Analysis - Iwu Biological - Iwu Biological's core product, dust mite drops, is steadily growing, while the new product, Artemisia annua drops, is rapidly gaining market share [17][18] - The company reported a revenue of CNY 484 million for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.81%, and a net profit of CNY 177 million, up 18.61% year-on-year [17][18] - The company is focusing on new research directions, including stem cells and natural medicines, which may enhance its growth potential [18] Group 4: Industry Analysis - Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel industry faces significant operational challenges, with A-share apparel revenue declining in Q2, although some companies are showing strong performance [7][10] - The retail sales of clothing and accessories in China showed a year-on-year increase of 1.8% in July, indicating a slight recovery in consumer demand [9] - The export of textiles and garments from China saw a year-on-year decline of 0.3% in July, with garment exports weakening [9][11]

产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 9 月 2 日 市。 环球市场动态 人 民 币 破 7 仍 需 要 更 多 催 化 股 票 中国市场 9 月开门红，A 股高开高 走，黄金股领涨大市；港股高位震 荡，阿里巴巴 (9988 HK) 业绩突出 大涨 18.5%；欧洲股市收高，防务 与医疗板块带动市场；美股周一休 外 汇 / 商 品 美国金融市场因公众假日休市，瑞 典克朗领涨 G-10 货币，日元表现 落后；石油交易员预计，OPEC+本 周末开会时将维持原油产量不变， 周一原油期货窄幅波动。 固 定 收 益 美国假期休市，市场静淡。投资者 对美联储本月降息乐观。欧洲经济 数据向好，降息暂缓预期下，欧债 收益率普涨。亚洲债市交投清淡， 中国投资级债券利差基本持平。 欧美主要指数 主要指数 指数 收盘点位 1日涨跌 (%) 道琼斯 45,544.9 (0.2) 标普 500 6,460.3 (0.6) 纳斯达克 21,455.6 (1.2) 巴西圣保罗证交所指数 141,422.3 0.3 标普墨西哥 IPC 指数 58,708 ...

Core Points - The People's Bank of China announced the exchange rates of the Renminbi against various currencies on September 2, 2023, indicating the market's valuation of the Renminbi [1] Group 1: Exchange Rates - The exchange rate for 100 US dollars is 710.89 Renminbi [1] - The exchange rate for 100 euros is 832.76 Renminbi [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Japanese yen is 4.8388 Renminbi [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Hong Kong dollars is 91.183 Renminbi [1] - The exchange rate for 100 British pounds is 963.58 Renminbi [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Australian dollars is 466.08 Renminbi [1] - The exchange rate for 100 New Zealand dollars is 420.01 Renminbi [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Singapore dollars is 554.22 Renminbi [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Swiss francs is 888.51 Renminbi [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Canadian dollars is 517.44 Renminbi [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 113.01 Macanese Patacas [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 59.305 Malaysian Ringgits [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 1130.49 Russian Rubles [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 247.65 South African Rand [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 19567 South Korean Won [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 51.614 UAE Dirhams [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 52.731 Saudi Riyals [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 4739.73 Hungarian Forints [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 51.123 Polish Zlotys [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 89.67 Danish Krone [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 132.01 Swedish Krona [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 140.5 Norwegian Krone [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 577.943 Turkish Lira [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 262.18 Mexican Pesos [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 453.41 Thai Baht [1]

Core Viewpoint - In late August, the RMB experienced a rapid appreciation against the backdrop of a weak US dollar index, strong central bank midpoint pricing, and attractive domestic equity market performance, leading to a new low for the USD/CNY exchange rate this year [1] Group 1 - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain strong in the short term, gradually returning to a "three-price unification" [1] - If the RMB can maintain a strong trend as the year-end approaches, the demand for settlement is likely to continue supporting the RMB exchange rate [1] - The current domestic fundamentals are primarily providing a floor for the exchange rate, with foreign capital inflow into the equity market but facing outflow pressure in the bond market [1] Group 2 - A breakthrough of the 7 level for the RMB exchange rate will require additional catalysts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the RMB has experienced a rapid appreciation due to a combination of external factors, including a weaker US dollar index, strong central bank guidance on exchange rate expectations, and attractive performance in the domestic equity market, which has drawn foreign capital inflows [1] Group 1 - The USD/CNY exchange rate has reached a new low for the year, reflecting the recent appreciation of the RMB [1] - The RMB is expected to maintain a strong and fluctuating trend in the short term, gradually returning to a state of "three prices in one" [1] - As the year-end approaches, if the RMB can sustain its strong fluctuations, it is anticipated that the demand for currency settlement will continue to support the RMB exchange rate [1] Group 2 - The current domestic fundamentals are primarily providing a floor for the exchange rate, with foreign capital inflows into the equity market contrasted by outflows in the bond market [1] - More catalysts are needed for the RMB to break the 7 level against the US dollar [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the Chinese currency, Renminbi (RMB), and its exchange rate dynamics against the US dollar, particularly focusing on the implications of recent monetary policy adjustments by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) [2][3][5]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **PBOC's Policy Adjustments**: The PBOC has raised the RMB's central parity rate by over 1,000 basis points to stabilize market expectations and prevent significant fluctuations in the exchange rate [2][3]. 2. **Stability in US-China Negotiations**: The PBOC aims to avoid large-scale depreciation or appreciation of the RMB to maintain stability during critical negotiations with the US, particularly ahead of the APEC meeting [2][3]. 3. **Market Reactions**: The market has responded to the PBOC's guidance, with the spot exchange rate aligning with the central parity, allowing exporters time to hedge against risks [2][3][4]. 4. **Carry Trade Resurgence**: A new wave of carry trades has emerged in the RMB market, driven by low volatility and favorable interest rate differentials, further supporting RMB appreciation [4][6]. 5. **Future Exchange Rate Trends**: The RMB's future trajectory will depend on the central parity adjustments. If it falls below 7.10, it may signal accelerated appreciation, although the process is expected to be gradual [5][12]. 6. **Impact of Exporters**: Exporters play a crucial role in the foreign exchange market, holding approximately $421.1 billion in pending settlements, which could influence RMB appreciation if they convert their dollar holdings [8][9][11]. 7. **Risk Management by Exporters**: Exporters have become more cautious in managing foreign exchange risks, with 30% of their pending settlements hedged against currency fluctuations, a significant improvement from previous years [10][11]. 8. **Potential for Exchange Rate Peaks**: If the spot exchange rate drops below 7.10, it could trigger a wave of conversions from dollars to RMB, leading to further appreciation [11][12]. 9. **Long-term Outlook**: The RMB is expected to appreciate gradually over the next few months, with market expectations aligning with a long-term upward trend against the backdrop of a depreciating dollar [12][13]. 10. **Cross-Border Capital Flows**: The RMB's appreciation may attract cross-border capital back into Chinese financial assets, despite short-term volatility [14][18]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Volatility Trends**: Recent increases in volatility (3.5% to 4%) could lead to forced unwinding of carry trades, potentially pushing the RMB higher [7][16]. - **Market Sentiment**: The sentiment around the RMB's appreciation is influenced by broader market conditions, including the performance of the US dollar and the PBOC's ongoing policy adjustments [5][17]. - **Technical Factors**: Technical aspects such as settlement and carry trades will also play a role in shaping the RMB's future exchange rate movements [5][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the RMB exchange rate, highlighting similarities with the macroeconomic context of late 2018 to mid-2019, including low domestic PMI, rising RMB assets, and improved expectations for Sino-US relations [2][8]. Group 1: Main Line, Trading Factors, and Policy Push - The RMB exchange rate trend is primarily driven by fundamental economic data, particularly exports and PMI [4][15]. - Currently, there is marginal improvement in the net settlement rate, but the domestic manufacturing PMI remains low, indicating a need for further confirmation of trend improvement [5][15]. - Two uncertain factors that may amplify exchange rate fluctuations are identified: the potential release of accumulated settlement and the emotional changes stemming from Sino-US interactions [6][21]. Subgroup: Accumulated Settlement Release - The estimated accumulated settlement as of July is approximately between $743.3 billion and $892.6 billion, with a median of around $818 billion [22][23]. - The average weighted exchange rate cost of these accumulated settlements is estimated to be between 7.02 and 7.17, with significant amounts concentrated around the 6.9 to 7.2 range [23]. - The exchange rate of 7.0 is highlighted as a critical threshold, where approaching this level may lead to accelerated settlement and increased volatility [23]. Subgroup: Emotional Changes from Sino-US Contact - The recent strengthening of the RMB is supported by improved expectations regarding Sino-US relations, with historical parallels drawn to the period from November 2018 to June 2019 [30][31]. - The current macroeconomic context shares similarities with the past, including low PMI and a rebound in A-shares, suggesting potential for further RMB appreciation [31][32]. Subgroup: Policy Intent - The article notes a rare occurrence where the counter-cyclical factor remains significant during a period of RMB appreciation, indicating policy support for the strengthening trend [9][35]. - The counter-cyclical factor shadow has shown significant activity, particularly since the Geneva trade talks, suggesting a policy-driven influence on the exchange rate [35][38]. Group 2: Comprehensive Assessment of RMB Exchange Rate - The current valuation of the RMB against the USD is considered relatively high compared to the fitted midpoints based on Sino-US interest rate differentials, while the CFETS RMB index remains slightly undervalued [40][41]. - The RMB's valuation against a basket of currencies is deemed reasonable, with potential for appreciation based on export competitiveness [40][41]. Subgroup: Three Aspects of the Current Exchange Rate - The bank's customer settlement surplus has expanded, indicating improved settlement fundamentals [48]. - Both resident and enterprise expectations have shown signs of recovery, with residents' expectations reflected in the implied exchange rate of gold and enterprises' expectations indicated by the net settlement rate [50][52]. - Trading volumes in the onshore foreign exchange market have increased, suggesting heightened market sentiment and potential for RMB appreciation [56]. Subgroup: Policy Impact - The counter-cyclical factor shadow has increased friction on the depreciation side, indicating a policy stance aimed at stabilizing the RMB [59].

Group 1: Currency Appreciation Dynamics - The current appreciation of the RMB is primarily driven by holders of foreign exchange (cross-border capital, foreign trade enterprises), while domestic investors remain cautious, as evidenced by the high "Shanghai gold premium" [1] - The RMB exchange rate has experienced two phases: the first phase from April to June was characterized by a collapse in USD credit, while the second phase in July and August saw a return to the significance of the USD-CNY interest rate differential [6] - The report highlights a persistent "three-price divergence" among the gold purchasing power parity, offshore price, and central bank's middle rate, indicating differing expectations between foreign and domestic investors [10] Group 2: Investor Behavior and Central Bank Management - Foreign investors are more focused on the volatility of USD assets and investment returns, leading to increased demand for RMB assets during the USD credit deterioration [16] - Domestic investors, who are typically currency exchangers, are more sensitive to USD yields, which explains the high "Shanghai gold premium" during the USD credit collapse [20] - The central bank has successfully managed expectations by adjusting its operations in the swap market and guiding the middle rate, which has led to increased optimism among domestic investors [22] - The report anticipates that the central bank's guidance may lead the offshore price to rise to a range of 7.0-7.1 [22]