Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has strengthened significantly against the US dollar, with the onshore and offshore yuan breaking the 7 mark, driven by multiple factors including policy guidance, seasonal factors, and the depreciation of the dollar [1][3]. Group 1: External Factors - The continuous weakening of the US dollar has provided ample space for the yuan's appreciation, becoming a core driver of its strength [4]. - The dollar index fell by 9% last year, marking its worst performance since 2017, influenced by former President Trump's comments on the dollar's volatility [4][5]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates has led to expectations of future rate cuts, further weakening the dollar's appeal [6]. Group 2: Domestic Factors - The steady recovery of China's economic fundamentals and precise policy guidance have provided solid internal support for the yuan's exchange rate [7]. - China's GDP reached 140 trillion yuan in 2025, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, which has improved global market confidence in the yuan [7]. - Seasonal factors, such as year-end currency settlement peaks and proactive foreign exchange sales by export enterprises, have created a positive supply-demand cycle, driving the offshore yuan's appreciation [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Increased demand for yuan due to enterprises accelerating their dollar sales to meet year-end financial obligations has further strengthened the yuan [8]. - In December 2025, banks recorded a net settlement of $99.93 billion, a new high, indicating strong corporate demand for yuan [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the yuan will continue to exhibit a trend of stable appreciation and two-way fluctuations, with short-term upward momentum supported by ongoing corporate settlement demands and global capital flows into yuan assets [9]. - The long-term trajectory of the yuan will ultimately depend on the continuous improvement of China's economic fundamentals, with potential upward pressure on the yuan's international status [9].

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京1月29日电（记者 翟卓）北京时间29日凌晨，美联储公布新年首次利率决议，如期"按兵 不动"暂停降息，不过也有两位理事投出反对票倾向降息。 由于市场对此已有充分预期，当天10年期美债收益率及美元指数仅小幅上行，纽约股市三大股指涨跌不 一，黄金在更多因素的综合影响下续创新高。 分析认为，鉴于此次会议并未释放鹰派信号，短期内美元指数或延续偏弱运行，人民币汇率在这一相对 友好的外部环境下也有望维持偏强震荡；往后看，美联储在主席鲍威尔任期结束前或均维持利率稳定， 首次降息或推迟至二季度落地。 美联储如期"按兵不动" 降息进程进入"观察期" 美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间保持在3.5%至3.75%，为自去年9月起连续三次降息后首次维持利 率不变。 在12位美联储票委中，有10人支持"按兵不动"，但米兰及沃勒投下了反对票，二人均由美国总统特朗普 任命，也都主张降息25个基点。中金公司研报指出，沃勒投下反对票或与其希望被提名为下一任美联储 主席有关。 "此次分歧反映出在中期选举等背景下，货币政策正承受越来越大的政治压力。"广开首席产业研究院副 院长刘涛说。据美国财长贝森特日前透露，特朗普已将接 ...

来源：人民日报客户端 同时也要看到，人民币国际化的步伐正逐渐加快。2025年上半年，人民币跨境收付金额合计为35万亿 元，同比增长14%，其中货物贸易跨境人民币收付金额合计为6.4万亿元，占同期本外币跨境收付的比 重为28%，收付金额和占比均处历史最好水平，这反映出人民币在国际贸易结算中的接受度不断提升， 尤其是共建"一带一路"国家和东盟、非洲地区的国家，对人民币结算的接受度更高。在此背景下，我国 货物出口对于汇率波动的敏感性也在逐步降低。 在复杂国际环境中，人民币汇率保持基本稳定的核心支撑，来自于中国经济表现出的强大韧性。中国具 有超大规模市场和完整产业链，科技创新和产业创新加速融合，新动能蓬勃发展，内需潜力不断释放， 国内国际双循环更加畅通，宏观经济基本面长期向好，这对人民币汇率基本稳定形成了坚实支撑。我国 外汇交易量持续创历史新高，市场参与主体涵盖国内主要金融机构以及境外机构，交易主体多元、市场 深度拓展，也能够有效吸纳外部环境变化的影响。 在市场化的汇率形成机制下，人民币汇率由市场供需决定，汇率波动是常态。对企业来说，要适应人民 币汇率表现出的"双向波动、弹性增强"特征。一方面，要专注于主业、苦练内功 ...

新华社北京1月29日电 中国外汇交易中心1月29日受权公布人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、英镑、 澳元、新西兰元、新加坡元、瑞士法郎、加元、澳门元、林吉特、卢布、兰特、韩元、迪拉姆、里亚 尔、福林、兹罗提、丹麦克朗、瑞典克朗、挪威克朗、里拉、墨西哥比索及泰铢的市场汇价。 1月29日人民币汇率中间价如下： 100美元 697.71人民币 100欧元 833.49人民币 100日元 4.5437人民币 100港元 89.435人民币 100英镑 961.75人民币 100澳元 490.0人民币 100新西兰元 421.73人民币 100新加坡元 551.81人民币 100瑞士法郎 907.79人民币 100加元 513.72人民币 100人民币115.22澳门元 100人民币56.213马来西亚林吉特 100人民币1100.95俄罗斯卢布 100人民币225.93南非兰特 100人民币20576韩元 100人民币52.781阿联酋迪拉姆 100人民币53.889沙特里亚尔 100人民币4562.18匈牙利福林 100人民币50.463波兰兹罗提 100人民币89.62丹麦克朗 100人民币126.78瑞典克朗 1 ...

(责任编辑：马欣) 中国经济网北京1月29日讯 来自中国外汇交易中心的数据显示，今日人民币对美元汇率中间价报 6.9771，较前一交易日下调16个基点。 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年1月29日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美元 对人民币6.9771元，1欧元对人民币8.3349元，100日元对人民币4.5437元，1港元对人民币0.89435元，1 英镑对人民币9.6175元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.9000元，1新西兰元对人民币4.2173元，1新加坡元对人 民币5.5181元，1瑞士法郎对人民币9.0779元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1372元，人民币1元对1.1522澳门 元，人民币1元对0.56213马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.0095俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.2593南非兰 特，人民币1元对205.76韩元，人民币1元对0.52781阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.53889沙特里亚尔，人 民币1元对45.6218匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.50463波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.8962丹麦克朗，人民币 1元对1.2678瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.3760挪威克朗，人民 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has been driven by a combination of external market conditions and domestic supply-demand dynamics, with the RMB middle rate breaking the 7.0 mark for the first time in two and a half years, indicating a strong upward trend [1][2][3]. Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB to USD middle rate has shown a pattern of steady appreciation, with a significant increase of 103 basis points to 6.9755 on January 28, 2026, following a previous rise that broke the 7.0 threshold [1][2]. - The RMB middle rate experienced its largest single-day appreciation since August 2025 on January 23, 2026, rising 90 basis points to 6.9929 [2]. - Both onshore and offshore RMB rates began appreciating at the end of 2025, with fluctuations around the 6.9 range continuing into 2026 [2]. Factors Driving Appreciation - The "weak dollar" environment has provided crucial external support for the RMB's appreciation, with the US dollar index declining from 100.22 to 97.51 since late November 2025, a drop of approximately 2.7% [2]. - A surge in seasonal foreign exchange settlement demand has been identified as a core driver of the RMB's strength, with settlement demand in late 2025 significantly exceeding historical seasonal levels [2][3]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market sentiment has been buoyant, contributing to the RMB's strong performance, with analysts noting that the release of accumulated settlement demand from high export growth may accelerate [3]. - Despite the current strength, there is a consensus that the RMB will not experience a one-sided appreciation trend, with regulatory measures in place to prevent excessive fluctuations [4][5]. Regulatory and Institutional Perspectives - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has indicated that the RMB exchange rate will continue to exhibit two-way fluctuations and maintain elasticity, emphasizing the importance of market forces in exchange rate formation [4]. - Analysts from institutions like Galaxy Securities predict a stable appreciation of the RMB rather than a rapid increase, with expectations of seasonal fluctuations in demand affecting the rate in the coming months [5]. Long-term Considerations - The RMB may face depreciation pressure in 2026 due to potential stabilization of the US dollar index and the impact of high tariffs on global trade and exports [6]. - Domestic economic fundamentals are expected to provide critical support for the RMB's stability, with regulatory interventions likely to manage significant volatility [6].

2026年开年以来，人民币兑美元汇率持续上演强势行情，中间价时隔两年半再度突破7.0关键关口，市场对 后续汇率演绎路径高度关注。 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 1月28日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，人民币对美元汇率中间价报6.9755，较前一交易日 大幅调升103个基点，延续了"破7"后的升值态势。在岸人民币兑美元收盘报6.9453，较上一交易日上涨 123个基点。 中间价震荡上行 回顾近期走势，人民币对美元汇率中间价呈现震荡上行特征。1月27日，中间价曾小幅调贬15基点至 6.9858。 2026.01. 28 本文字数：2223，阅读时长大约4分钟 关键的突破则发生在1月23日，当日人民币对美元中间价调升90基点至6.9929，单日升值幅度创下2025年 8月25日以来的最大值，这也是人民币中间价时隔32个月再度跨越7.0整数关口。 与中间价的稳步突破相呼应，在岸与离岸人民币汇率早在2025年末就已开启升值进程，相继突破7.0关口。 进入2026年后，两大市场汇率延续小幅升值态势，整体围绕6.9区间波动。 此轮人民币汇率的快速升值并非单一因素驱动，而是国际市场环境与国内供求关系共振形成的合力。 从 ...

总体来说，2026年人民币不会大幅升值，央行的目标仍是保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳 定。 格隆汇1月28日｜据一财，2025年底离岸人民币对美元汇率突破7的整数关口并持续回升，沈建光认为， 主要受到三个关键性因素驱动。一是2025年中国经常账户余额或创历史新高；二是近期中国政府采取多 种举措提振经济；三是美元的疲软有利于人民币汇率。 展望后市，沈建光认为，首先，巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应等长期因素并不支持人民币汇率明显升值。其 次，从总需求等周期性因素看，2026年我国内需增长仍有较大不确定性，外需仍然是支持中国经济增长 的关键。同时，近期地缘政治变动对中国外需的负面影响也值得关注。 ...

Group 1 - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar is attributed to three main factors: the criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the US government's fluctuating policies towards Europe, and heightened market vigilance regarding potential Japanese government intervention in the currency market [2] - Increased corporate demand for currency exchange towards the end of the year has contributed to the seasonal strengthening of the Renminbi, particularly as previously accumulated demand from high export growth is being released [2] - Current high market sentiment is playing a significant role in supporting the Renminbi's strong performance, leading to its recent rise above the 7 mark against the dollar [2] Group 2 - Looking ahead, it is anticipated that long-term factors such as the Balassa-Samuelson effect do not support a significant appreciation of the Renminbi, and uncertainties in domestic demand may impact future growth [2] - Geopolitical changes are also expected to negatively affect China's external demand, which remains crucial for economic growth [2] - In the event of significant fluctuations in the Renminbi exchange rate that deviate from fundamental values, regulatory measures will likely be implemented to stabilize the market and manage offshore Renminbi volatility [3]

1月28日人民币对美元中间价报6.9755 上调103个基点 中新网1月28日电 据中国外汇交易中心网站消息，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2026年1月28日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美元对 人民币6.9755元，上调103个基点。 图片来源：中国外汇交易中心网站截图 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：付健青 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 ...