Report Title - "Stock, Bond, and Commodity Markets Mostly Rise, with a Large Decline in the European Container Shipping Route - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20251028" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, assets should be evenly allocated. After the Fed cuts interest rates in the October meeting, progresses in China - US tariff talks, and the release of specific details from the 20th Fourth Plenary Session, both domestic and overseas equity sectors (especially the science and technology innovation sector) and non - ferrous metals are expected to benefit. Black commodities with low valuations due to domestic policy improvements also have some rebound opportunities, while precious metals may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short - term [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance 1.1 Stock Index Futures - The CSI 300 futures closed at 4684.4, with a daily increase of 1.07%, a weekly increase of 1.07%, a monthly increase of 1.44%, a quarterly increase of 1.44%, and a year - to - date increase of 19.47%. The Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [2] 1.2 Bond Futures - Bond futures generally rose. For example, the 30 - year bond futures had a daily increase of 0.34%, a weekly increase of 0.34%, a monthly increase of 1.32%, a quarterly increase of 1.32%, but a year - to - date decrease of 2.89% [2] 1.3 Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index remained unchanged on the day, with a monthly increase of 1.14% and a year - to - date decrease of 8.79%. The euro - US dollar exchange rate and the US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate also had different trends [2] 1.4 Interest Rates - Interest rates showed different trends. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury yield had a daily increase of 1 bp, a monthly decrease of 0.18 bp, and a year - to - date decrease of 53 bp [2] 1.5 Industry Indexes - Industries such as construction, steel, and non - ferrous metals showed varying degrees of increase, while industries such as food and beverage, and electronics showed varying degrees of decline [3] 1.6 Commodities - Commodities had different performance. For example, COMEX gold had a daily decrease of 0.39%, a monthly increase of 6.16%, and a year - to - date increase of 56.36%. The European container shipping route had a daily decrease of 3.06% and a quarterly decrease of 21.36% [3][4] 2. Macro Analysis 2.1 Overseas Macro - The US government shutdown continued this week. The expectation of China - US tariffs eased, and the CPI in September was lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of monetary easing. There are four reasons: the lower - than - expected CPI in September, the continuous government shutdown, the increasing economic downward pressure after the government shutdown, and the easing expectation of China - US tariffs [6] 2.2 Domestic Macro - The communique of the 20th Fourth Plenary Session was released this week, sending positive signals. The economic and financial data in September showed relative resilience. Consumption and investment growth continued to slow down, but the strengthening of policy expectations is expected to boost physical work volume in the fourth quarter [6] 3. Asset Views - In the short - term, maintain a balanced asset allocation. After the Fed cuts interest rates in the October meeting, progresses in China - US tariff talks, and the release of specific details from the 20th Fourth Plenary Session, equity sectors (especially the science and technology innovation sector) and non - ferrous metals are expected to benefit. Black commodities with low valuations due to domestic policy improvements also have some rebound opportunities, while precious metals may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short - term [6] 4. Market Outlook for Each Sector 4.1 Financial Sector - Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate and rise due to technology - related event catalysts. Stock index options and bond futures are expected to fluctuate [7] 4.2 Precious Metals Sector - Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate as geopolitical and trade tensions ease [7] 4.3 Shipping Sector - The European container shipping route is expected to fluctuate as the peak season fades and there is a lack of upward momentum [7] 4.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Most varieties in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, and coke, are expected to fluctuate due to various factors such as policy disturbances, inventory pressures, and supply - demand relationships [7] 4.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Most non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate as they await the clarification of macro - policies [7] 4.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - Most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate due to factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand imbalances, and cost changes [9] 4.7 Agricultural Sector - Agricultural products are expected to fluctuate due to factors such as weather, trade relations, and supply - demand changes [9]

Macroeconomic Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in October due to weaker-than-expected inflation data, with the September CPI rising to 3.0% year-on-year, slightly below the 3.1% forecast[5][12] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains stable at 4.02%, while the domestic 10Y government bond futures price decreased by 0.3%[6] Market Performance - Major stock indices showed positive performance, with the Hang Seng Index and Nikkei 225 both up by 3.6%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.9%[6] - The S&P 500 Index increased by 1.9%, while emerging market stocks outperformed developed markets with a 2.2% rise[6] Commodity Trends - IPE Brent crude futures rose by 7.1% due to supply concerns from sanctions on Russia, while the S&P-Goldman Commodity Index increased by 3.7%[5] - COMEX copper prices saw a 2.4% increase, contrasting with a 3.3% decline in London gold prices[5] Investment and Consumption Trends - Consumer spending shows a divergence, with strong performance in goods like automobiles and textiles, while services such as urban travel and movie ticket sales are declining[10] - Investment in infrastructure is improving, with special bond issuance exceeding 90% completion and cement shipment rates increasing[10] Foreign Investment Activity - Northbound capital saw a net inflow of approximately 10 billion CNY in the last week, reversing a previous outflow of 11.3 billion CNY[35] - In Hong Kong, foreign capital inflow reached 9.5 billion HKD, with significant investments in software services and ETFs[36] Policy and Economic Outlook - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and plans to enhance consumer spending and investment in social welfare sectors[30] - The upcoming economic stimulus plan from Japan's new Prime Minister is expected to exceed 13.9 trillion JPY, aimed at supporting economic recovery[7]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of a modern economic system is a strategic goal for national development, emphasizing the need for innovation and adaptation to new productivity forms to address emerging economic challenges [1][2][3]. Group 1: Modern Economic System Components - The modern economic system is an organic whole composed of various social and economic activities, integrating both productivity and production relations [2]. - New quality productivity, driven by technological innovation, is essential for fundamentally transforming the economic system and requires a corresponding new production relationship [3][4]. - The modern production system should focus on innovation, resource optimization, and green development to enhance efficiency and address deep-seated economic imbalances [4]. Group 2: Distribution System - The modern distribution system aims to balance efficiency and equity, optimizing resource allocation and wealth flow to create a shared distribution mechanism [5]. - It emphasizes knowledge, technology, and human capital, ensuring that income distribution reflects contributions from these areas [5]. Group 3: Circulation System - The modern circulation system is crucial for optimizing resource allocation and meeting market demands, integrating technological innovation and institutional reform [6][7]. - It aims to establish a unified and competitive market system, enhancing the efficiency of circulation through the removal of institutional barriers [10]. Group 4: Consumption System - The modern consumption system is characterized by a shift towards digital, intelligent, and ecological consumption, driven by technological advancements and changing consumer preferences [11]. - It reflects a growing emphasis on experience, personalization, and sustainability in consumer behavior, with significant growth in new consumption formats [11]. Group 5: Progress and Achievements - Significant progress has been made in building a modern economic system, with notable improvements in productivity levels and structural optimization, contributing to high-quality economic development [8][9]. - The GDP is projected to grow by 5% in 2024, surpassing 130 trillion yuan, with strategic emerging industries rapidly developing [8]. Group 6: Challenges and Coordination - Despite achievements, challenges remain in various sectors, including the need for higher efficiency in the circulation system and addressing income disparities in the distribution system [12]. - Strengthening coordination between production, distribution, circulation, and consumption systems is essential for a cohesive modern economic framework [12]. Group 7: Future Directions - The focus should be on developing new quality productivity and establishing a new production relationship that aligns with this development [13]. - Emphasis on innovation-driven development, particularly in key technology sectors, is critical for maintaining competitive advantages [13][14]. - The distribution system should be refined to enhance equity and efficiency, with a focus on protecting property rights and optimizing public services [14]. Group 8: Policy Implementation - The implementation of a unified market system is vital for enhancing the modern circulation system, requiring improvements in market regulations and infrastructure [15]. - Policies should balance short-term demand stimulation with long-term structural reforms to foster a robust consumption ecosystem [16][17].

加快构建新发展格局是以习近平同志为核心的党中央统筹发展和安全作出的重大战略决策，是把握 我国发展主动权的战略性布局。党的二十届四中全会深入分析"十五五"时期我国发展环境面临的深刻复 杂变化，对做强国内大循环、畅通国内国际双循环作出系统谋划和战略部署。 革开放高地为牵引，稳步扩大制度型开放，丰富跨境电商、海外仓等新业态、新模式，优化提升省级自 贸试验区协同创新区、省级经开区等平台功能，努力在畅通内外循环中拓展国际合作空间。 "全会提出，坚持扩大内需这个战略基点，坚持惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧密结合， 以新需求引领新供给，以新供给创造新需求，促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动。我们将加力扩围 实施消费品以旧换新政策，制定实施促消费稳增长措施，带动石油、汽车等消费持续增长；抓重点区域 突破，强化市、县（区）协同联动，聚焦重点企业，落实常态化调度工作机制；深挖潜力行业，捕捉消 费热点，培育大型餐饮企业入统；进一步扩大外贸出口，围绕全市'7+25'产业链群培育外贸产业，形成 以苹果及其制品为代表的特色农产品、以石油装备制造为代表的工业制成品和以红色文化资源为特征的 文化旅游产品出口产业格局。"延安市商务局局长 ...

央视网消息：国家统计局10月27日发布数据，今年1—9月份，随着更加积极有为的宏观政策落地落实，新经济增长点培育壮大，规模以上 工业企业利润加快恢复。 全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额53732.0亿元，同比增长3.2%。 规模以上装备制造业利润同比增9.4% 此外，国家统计局介绍，今年前三季度，高技术制造业、装备制造业利润实现较快增长。1至9月，规模以上装备制造业利润同比增长 9.4%，高于全部规模以上工业平均水平6.2个百分点。 1至9月，规模以上高技术制造业利润同比增长8.7%，较1至8月加快2.7个百分点。其中，9月份高技术制造业利润两位数增长，增速达 26.8%，拉动当月全部规模以上工业企业利润增长6.1个百分点。 分行业看，在41个工业大类行业中，有23个行业利润同比增长，增长面超过五成。其中，9月份有30个行业利润增长，增长面达73.2%。 国家发展改革委宏观经济研究院副研究员 陈曦：前三季度，我国工业经济呈现稳中有进的发展态势，特别是工业生产保持了良好的増 势。叠加全国统一大市场建设纵深推进，市场竞争秩序持续优化，也为相关行业价格改善，以及企业效益提升带来了积极的变化。 1—9月份，全国规模以 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of building a strong domestic market and accelerating the construction of a new development pattern, which is a strategic deployment for the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The new development pattern focuses on smooth economic circulation, highlighting the mutual promotion of domestic and international dual circulation [1][2] - China is currently the world's second-largest commodity consumption market and the largest online retail market, but faces challenges such as unbalanced development and local protectionism that hinder market functionality [1] Group 2 - The 20th Central Committee's proposals include a series of key tasks aimed at expanding domestic demand and breaking down barriers to market access [2] - Specific measures include implementing consumption-boosting actions, maintaining reasonable investment growth, and increasing government investment in people's livelihoods to enhance the interaction between consumption and investment [2] - The goal is to unify market basic institutional rules and standardize local government economic promotion behaviors to fully release the dividends of China's super-large market [2] Group 3 - Strengthening the domestic market is crucial for meeting both domestic and global demands, improving the foreign trade environment, and attracting high-quality foreign investment [3] - The strategy aims to align domestic market construction with high-level opening up, promoting the integration of internal and external market rules and standards [3] - This approach seeks to enhance China's influence in global supply chains and actively participate in the reform of the global economic governance system [3]

Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,950.31, up by 0.71%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 2.02% to 13,289.18 [2] Macro Insights - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the need for high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, highlighting the coexistence of opportunities and risks in the current economic environment [3] - The report outlines three main focuses for economic and social development: prioritizing economic construction, achieving significant results in high-quality development, and enhancing national strength across various dimensions including defense [3][4] - The core development directions for advanced manufacturing include intelligent, green, and integrated approaches, aiming to build a modern industrial system [3][4] Company Analysis: Guangqi Technology (002625.SZ) - Guangqi Technology reported a revenue of 1.596 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.75%, with a net profit of 606 million yuan, up by 12.82% [7] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 653 million yuan, marking a significant growth of 56.50%, and a net profit of 220 million yuan, up by 25.28% [7] - The company has a strong order backlog, having signed contracts worth 516 million yuan for advanced material aviation structural products, indicating robust demand [8] - Guangqi Technology is implementing a production capacity upgrade through technology enhancements and process optimizations, aiming to complete the first phase of upgrades by the end of the year [8] Investment Recommendations - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for Guangqi Technology from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 0.34, 0.44, and 0.55 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 135.1, 105.3, and 84.0 [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of building a strong domestic market and accelerating the construction of a new development pattern, reflecting the continuity of macro policies and proactive problem-solving [1] - The new development pattern focuses on smooth economic circulation, highlighting the mutual promotion of domestic and international dual circulation, which is essential for leveraging China's vast market potential [1][2] - Current challenges include unbalanced development, inconsistent institutional rules, and inadequate market quality systems, which hinder the effective functioning of the market [1] Group 2 - The 20th Central Committee's proposals outline key tasks to enhance the domestic market, including expanding domestic demand and improving the interaction between consumption and investment [2] - Efforts to unify market basic institutional rules and standardize local government economic promotion behaviors aim to break down "invisible walls" and fully release the dividends of China's super-large market [2] - The strategy to strengthen the "big market" involves establishing unified rules and improving the efficiency of resource allocation, ensuring that the market plays a decisive role while the government maintains macroeconomic stability [2][3] Group 3 - Strengthening the domestic market is crucial for meeting both domestic and global demands, improving the foreign trade environment, and attracting high-quality foreign investment [3] - The strategy aims to align domestic market construction with high-level opening up, promoting the integration of internal and external market rules and standards [3] - This approach seeks to enhance China's influence in global supply chains and actively participate in the reform of the global economic governance system [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of building a strong domestic market as a strategic deployment for the 14th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the continuity of macro policies and proactive problem-solving [1] - The new development pattern focuses on smooth economic circulation, promoting domestic and international dual circulation, which is essential for leveraging China's vast market potential and ensuring efficient resource allocation [1][2] - China is currently the world's second-largest commodity consumer market and the largest online retail market, but faces challenges such as unbalanced development, inconsistent institutional rules, and local protectionism that hinder market functionality [1] Group 2 - The 14th Five-Year Plan outlines key tasks to enhance the domestic market, including expanding domestic demand, boosting consumption, and increasing government investment in people's livelihoods [2] - Efforts to unify market basic institutional rules and standardize local government economic promotion behaviors aim to break down invisible barriers and fully unleash the benefits of China's large-scale market [2] - The strategy to strengthen the domestic market is also linked to enhancing China's influence in global governance and attracting high-quality foreign investment, thereby shaping new competitive advantages in international cooperation [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the strategic importance of industrial transfer in promoting new industrialization and regional coordinated development in China [2][5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has organized six industrial transfer matching activities this year, highlighting the need for orderly transfer of industries to enhance regional collaboration and optimize manufacturing layout [2][3] - The industrial transfer is characterized by a two-way approach, integrating regional endowments with distinctive industries, particularly in high-end manufacturing, green low-carbon, digital economy, and modern services [3][4] Group 2 - The recent industrial transfer activities have resulted in significant project signings, such as 110 projects in Hainan, showcasing collaboration between state-owned enterprises and listed companies [3] - Regions like Sichuan leverage their natural resources to attract industries such as new energy vehicles, while Hainan benefits from its free trade port policies to create a favorable investment environment [3][4] - The shift from passive to active industrial transfer in western regions, exemplified by Guangxi's customized industrial parks, demonstrates a proactive approach to attracting new productive forces [4][5] Group 3 - The industrial transfer process is seen as a means to optimize the overall industrial structure across the country, with regions like Jiangxi transitioning from agriculture to electronic information industries [4] - The MIIT emphasizes the need for a well-coordinated mechanism for industrial transfer to eliminate invisible barriers to factor flow, thereby facilitating the construction of a unified national market [5] - The industrial transfer is not only a spatial restructuring of productivity but also a comprehensive upgrade of development momentum, fostering a complementary development pattern among regions [5]