宽货币落地+公募改革+保险预定利率或进 一步下调，银行有望跑出超额收益 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 当前进入稳增长政策密集落地期，宽货币先行，宽财政紧随，地方化债显著提速， 对 25 年银行基本面产生深刻影响；财政政策力度加码，支撑社融信贷并提振经济预 期，顺周期品种有望受益；广谱利率下行区间，银行净息差短期承压，但高息存款 进入集中重定价周期叠加监管对高息揽存行为持续整治，对 25 年银行息差形成重要 呵护；25 年是银行资产质量夯实之年，政策托底下，房地产、城投资产风险预期有 望显著改善，风险暴露和处置较为充分的部分个贷品种也有望迎来资产质量拐点。 ⚫ 现阶段关注两条投资主线： 风险提示：货币政策超预期收紧；财政政策低于预期；测算相关风险。 ——资金维度看银行股投资 核心观点 | 降准降息落地稳预期，对银行净息差影响 | 2025-05-07 | | --- | --- | | 可控：——银行视角看 5 月 7 日国新办发 | | | 布会 | | | 其他非息收入扰动业绩，核心业务表现稳 | 2025-05-06 | | 定：——A 股上市银行 25Q1 季报综述 | | | 存量政策有望发力提速，增量储备 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in personal housing provident fund loan interest rates across major cities in China aims to alleviate the financial burden on homebuyers and stimulate the real estate market [1][6][9]. Summary by Category Interest Rate Adjustments - The new interest rates for first-time homebuyers are set at 2.1% for loans under 5 years and 2.6% for loans over 5 years. For second homes, the rates are 2.525% for loans under 5 years and 3.075% for loans over 5 years [1][4]. - The previous rate for first-time homebuyers was 2.85%, which has now decreased to 2.6%, resulting in a monthly payment reduction of 186 yuan over a 30-year term, totaling a savings of 67,000 yuan [3][4]. Impact on Homebuyers - The interest rate cut is expected to benefit first-time homebuyers significantly, making home purchases more affordable. For example, a buyer in Changsha could save over 30,000 yuan on a 500,000 yuan loan over 30 years due to the lower rates [8]. - The reduction in rates for second homes may encourage homeowners to upgrade their living conditions, as the financial burden of purchasing a larger home is lessened [8]. Broader Market Implications - The adjustment in interest rates is part of a broader strategy to stabilize the real estate market and ensure housing affordability for the general public. This reflects the government's commitment to addressing housing issues [6][9]. - While the interest rate reduction is a positive step, the overall stability of the real estate market will depend on additional supportive policies, such as maintaining stable property prices and ensuring quality housing supply [9].

近期部分中小银行为何密集降低存款利率？背后有哪些考量？受访专家普遍认为，这主要是为了进一步 降低负债成本。 "存款是银行重要的负债来源，这是中小银行降低存款利率的重要原因。"中国邮政储蓄银行研究员娄飞 鹏表示。 4月8日，江西江州农商银行发布调整存款利率的公告称，该行自4月9日起调整人民币挂牌利率，调整后 整存整取存款利率三个月期、半年期、一年期、二年期、三年期、五年期分别为1.00%、1.25%、 1.50%、1.49%、1.48%、1.47%。其中，五年期较之前下降幅度最大，达38BP。 4月25日，浙江德清农商银行发布公告称，自4月30日起调整人民币储蓄存款执行利率，三年期、五年期 整存整取定期存款利率较3月16日公布的同期限存款利率分别下调10个、25个基点，至1.95%、1.8%。 记者梳理数据发现，江西江州农商银行、浙江德清农商银行等多家银行均出现了三年期存款利率略高于 五年期存款利率的情况。此外，民营银行成为此次存款利率调整的主力军，且调整后的存款利率较其他 类型中小银行仍较高。 4月份以来，多地中小银行密集下调存款利率。据《农村金融时报》记者观察，下调后，部分中小银行 三年期、五年期定期存款利 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent adjustments in deposit rates by several banks indicate a trend towards lower interest rates, particularly among small and medium-sized banks, with expectations of further reductions following recent monetary policy changes [1][2][9]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Numerous small and medium-sized banks have lowered their deposit rates since April, with many now offering rates below 2% for various terms [2]. - For instance, Fujian Huatuo Bank has reduced its 3-year fixed deposit rate from 2.7% to 2.45% and its 5-year rate from 2.6% to 2.5% [2]. - Shanghai Huari Bank has also adjusted its rates, with the 3-year fixed deposit rate now at 2.5% and the 5-year rate at 2.4%, leading to a "rate inversion" where longer-term rates are lower than shorter-term rates [2][3]. Group 2: Rate Inversion Phenomenon - The phenomenon of "rate inversion" is becoming more common, where the average interest rate for 3-year fixed deposits (2.042%) is higher than that for 5-year deposits (1.883%) [4]. - Some banks, like China Merchants Bank, are offering 1-year rates (1.6%) that exceed both 3-year (1.5%) and 5-year (1.55%) rates, further illustrating this trend [4]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Impact - The People's Bank of China has recently lowered the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.50% to 1.40%, which is expected to lead to a decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by approximately 0.1 percentage points [9]. - Analysts predict that this reduction in policy rates will encourage banks to further lower deposit rates, impacting the overall cost of financing in the economy [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing decline in deposit rates is anticipated to continue, prompting depositors to reconsider their asset allocation strategies [9]. - Financial experts suggest that individuals may need to diversify their investments beyond traditional savings accounts to include cash management products, government bonds, and potentially equities, depending on their risk tolerance [9].

多地中小银行密集按下存款利率"下调键"，5月11日，北京商报记者注意到，近日，包括哈密市商业银行、 聊城沪农商村镇银行、海伦惠丰村镇银行在内的多地中小银行以及上海华瑞银行、福建华通银行等民营银 行"官宣"对存款利率进行下调。部分长期限存款利率跌破2%，步入"1时代"。这轮中小银行的"补降"，被 视为对前期国有大行"降息"的跟进，人民银行降息、降准一揽子货币政策的落地，将市场对新一轮全国性 银行集体"降息"的预期也推向高点。 中小银行集体"补降" 银行存款利率已全面向"1时代"迈进，5月11日，北京商报记者注意到，近日，多地中小银行、民营银行宣 布执行新的存款利率水平。 在此之前，受市场利率下行、持续让利实体经济等因素影响，2024年A股上市银行净息差仍面临严峻考 验。据北京商报记者统计，过去一年，42家银行净息差全线收窄，降幅在1—51个基点之间。股份制银行 及地方银行降幅较大，平安银行、浙商银行、贵阳银行、郑州银行、江阴农商行、张家港农商行等净息差 下降幅度达30个基点或以上；光大银行、华夏银行、长沙银行、齐鲁银行、瑞丰农商行2024年净息差同比 降幅则在20个基点附近。息差下行幅度亦符合行业趋势，国家金融 ...

上海华瑞银行 也在近期多次下调存款利率。继4月16日起下调存款利率后，该行自4月28日起 继续调整存款利率，将三年期整存整取定存利率由2.6%下调至2.5%，将五年期整存整取定存 利率由2.55%下调至2.4%。调整后，该行存款利率出现"倒挂"，即五年期定存利率低于三年期 定存利率。 "周末去了几家银行网点，存款利率基本上都在2%以下了，而且不少银行都没有长期限存款产 品了。接下来准备尝试银行理财。"5月10日，投资者小张告诉记者。 近日，微众银行、福建华通银行、上海华瑞银行等多家中小银行调降了存款利率。同时，部 分银行也下调了特色存款产品利率。此番调整后，有银行出现存款利率"倒挂"现象。专家认 为，随着降准降息落地，预计后续存款利率将开启新一轮调降。 中小银行下调存款利率 4月以来，数十家银行下调了存款利率，主要是中小银行补降存款利率。部分银行在短时间内 多次调整存款利率。调整后，市场上利率在3%以上的高息存款难觅，部分银行各期限存款利 率都在2%以下。 例如， 福建华通银行 近期多次下调存款利率。该行公告称，自5月10日起将1天期、7天期个 人通知存款挂牌利率分别调整为0.8%、1.0%。定存利率方面，继 ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in deposit interest rates has raised concerns among depositors, with many banks reducing rates significantly, leading to a situation where depositors find it challenging to locate products with rates exceeding 2% [1][2] Group 1: Deposit Rate Changes - Since April, over 20 commercial banks have lowered their fixed deposit rates, marking a shift towards the "1 era" for deposit rates [2] - For instance, Qingxu Rural Commercial Bank's rates for various terms are now 1.6%, 1.7%, 1.9%, and 1.9% for 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year deposits respectively [2] - The rates at Luoping Xingfu Rural Bank have also dropped significantly, with 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year rates falling from 1.45%-2.25% to 1.10%-1.95% [2] Group 2: Impact on Depositors - A deposit of 10,000 yuan at Luoping Xingfu Rural Bank yields only 145 yuan in interest for one year, and the total interest over five years is less than 1,000 yuan [4] - The decline in deposit rates has resulted in a substantial reduction in returns for depositors [4] Group 3: Interest Rate Inversion - A notable phenomenon of "inversion" in deposit rates has emerged, where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, such as a 3-year rate of 1.90% compared to a 5-year rate of 1.55% at China Construction Bank [6] - Other banks like Ping An Bank and Huaxia Bank also exhibit similar trends, with 3-year rates significantly higher than 5-year rates [6] Group 4: Reasons for Rate Inversion - Banks are lowering long-term deposit rates to encourage consumer spending and avoid long-term deposits that could hinder economic liquidity [7] - Concerns about future interest rate declines lead banks to reduce long-term rates to mitigate potential high-interest liabilities [7] Group 5: Future Outlook and Asset Allocation - The market interest rates are expected to continue declining, which may further reduce depositors' savings returns [9] - In the current environment, depositors are advised to adjust their asset allocation strategies based on their risk tolerance and investment needs, considering low-risk products like cash management funds and government bonds [11] - For those with higher risk tolerance, exploring stocks and equity funds may be appropriate, but caution is advised to avoid unnecessary risks [12][13]

标普500指数自4月低点已反弹18%，眼看就要进入技术性牛市。 高盛交易员指出市场经历了一场轮回：年初的乐观情绪在三四月被恐慌取代，但如今股指又 回到了原点。这轮过山车行情中，真正的赢家只有散户——他们成了唯一的"逢低买入"主力 军。 但高盛发出 警告， 美国经济衰退风险正在逼近。而 衰退一旦发生，可能会迫使美联储从当 前水平下调利率多达200个基点。 从短期来看，美股仍面临"下行风险不对称"的局面。 接下来如何进行投资布局对冲风险？ 每一个细微的市场信息都能成为决胜的关键！ 除了必须要看的美股研究社外， 这几个硬核账号也可以赶紧关注起来： 老徐聊海外 十年美股期权玩家，从财报套利到组合风控，只讲能落地的实战策略： 各类套利、波动率交易等策 略拆解，期权链深度分析，以及美股中线交易。 每周实盘复盘 + 干货输出，适合想系统学美股和期 权的投资者。 周期雪爷 点击名片关注啦 对于短线情绪流和主升感兴趣，想精准踏准柿场节奏的可以关注"周期雪爷"。一位职业女选手，擅长情 绪和趋势周期。对大A短线和主升方面有一定深入研究。 价投老鬼 关注价值投资的朋友可以关注。不追涨杀跌，专注企业价值与长期福利。作者曾亲历多次财富大 ...

RealEstate网站5月9日报道，最新调查显示，澳洲民众对房地产市场的信心在连续 3个季度下跌后出现 大幅反弹。与此同时，澳洲最大银行之一预测利率将回归至疫 情时期水平。 周五发布的NABResidential Property Index指出，今年3月，该指数"大幅上涨至 远超平均水平的40点， 此前连续3个季度呈下降趋势"。 预计未来12个月内该指数将 达到51点，未来两年将达到54点。 澳洲国民银行（NAB）首席经济学家Sally Auld预计，利率下调将支撑经济增长， 澳洲经济将实现'软着 陆'。 今年下半年的通胀率将稳定在澳联储目标区间的中间水 平，失业率将保持在4.5%以下。 （图片来源：RealEstate） "也就是说，全球经济正面临逆风，全球增长放缓可能对澳洲经济增长产生负面影 响，同时也会起到抑 制通胀的作用。这意味着澳联储需要更快实现利率正常化，并 进一步降低利率以提供额外支持。" "因此，我们现在预计澳联储将在8月前将现金利率降至3.1%，并在2026年初降至 2.6%。" （图片来源：RealEstate） 最新调查发现，未来12个月的房价增长预期几乎翻了一番，达到2.3%（此前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the State Council includes significant policies such as interest rate cuts and reductions in public housing loan rates, aimed at alleviating the financial burden on homebuyers [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - The central bank has lowered the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, which is expected to lead to a corresponding decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by approximately 0.1 percentage points [3] - Currently, the LPR is at 3.6%, and most existing mortgage rates are set at LPR minus 30 basis points, resulting in an effective rate of 3.3% for existing borrowers [4] - Following the interest rate cut, the LPR is projected to drop to 3.5%, leading to a new mortgage rate of 3.2%, which would save borrowers approximately 50 yuan per month on a 1 million yuan loan over 30 years [5] Group 2: New Homebuyer Benefits - New homebuyers are currently benefiting from lower rates, with some receiving LPR minus 70 basis points, resulting in a rate of 2.9%, which will decrease to 2.8% after the recent cut [6] Group 3: Future Rate Expectations - There is speculation that further interest rate cuts may occur in 2025, with a potential reduction of 50 basis points due to a combination of factors including a clear monetary easing policy and weak market demand for housing [9] - The next expected rate cut may depend on the U.S. Federal Reserve's actions, with predictions of three rate cuts within the year [9] Group 4: Public Housing Loan Rate Adjustments - The People's Bank of China has announced a reduction in public housing loan rates effective from May 8, 2025, with first-time homebuyer rates adjusted to 2.1% for loans up to 5 years and 2.6% for loans over 5 years [12] - For second-time homebuyers, the rates will be adjusted to not lower than 2.525% for loans up to 5 years and 3.075% for loans over 5 years [12][13] - Existing loans issued before May 8, 2025, will see adjustments starting January 1, 2026, in most regions, although Shenzhen may implement changes sooner based on previous practices [13]