Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a significant recovery in its core business, with total revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching 20.76 billion and 6.57 billion respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 54% and 130% [4] - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable market environment in both A-shares and H-shares, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4][5] - The company is anticipated to experience a "Davis Double" effect due to a recovery in fundamentals and valuation repair [4] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 29.03 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 36.1% [8] - Net profit for 2025 is estimated at 10.41 billion, reflecting an 82.9% increase year-on-year [8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve to 8.9% in 2025, up from 6.0% in 2023 [11] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 16.3 in 2023 to 9.6 in 2025, indicating a more attractive valuation [8][12] Business Segment Performance - Brokerage business net income for the first three quarters reached 4.5 billion, up 76% year-on-year, driven by a significant increase in market trading volume [5] - Investment banking revenue for the same period was 2.94 billion, a 43% increase year-on-year, with a notable rise in IPO underwriting amounts [5] - Asset management revenue also showed growth, reaching 1.1 billion, up 27% year-on-year [5] Investment Income and Cost Management - Proprietary investment income for the first three quarters was 10.3 billion, reflecting a 66% year-on-year increase [6] - The company has maintained a stable cost management strategy, with business and management expenses increasing by 25% year-on-year [6] - Interest expenses decreased by 15% year-on-year, contributing to improved profitability [6]

Group 1 - Lithium carbonate futures prices have continued to rise for seven consecutive trading days, with an increase of over 10%, benefiting from the high growth in downstream energy storage and power battery sectors [1] - The New Energy Vehicle ETF closely tracks the CSI New Energy Vehicle Industry Index, which has a high lithium battery content and is expected to benefit from the recovery in lithium battery market, presenting a potential "Davis Double" opportunity [1] - The CSI New Energy Vehicle Industry Index selects 50 listed companies involved in the new energy vehicle industry, reflecting the overall performance of leading listed companies in this sector [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI New Energy Vehicle Industry Index (930997) include CATL, Huichuan Technology, BYD, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Huayou Cobalt, Ganfeng Lithium, Xianlead Intelligent, Changan Automobile, and Tianci Materials, which together account for 54.61% of the index [1] - The New Energy Vehicle ETF (515700) has several off-market linkages, including Ping An CSI New Energy Vehicle ETF Initiated Linkage A (012698), C (012699), and E (024504) [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a low opening but rose to surpass the 4000-point mark on the Shanghai Composite Index, which was last seen on August 18, 2015, marking a gap of 3723 days [1][4] - The index closed at 3988.22 points after a period of fluctuations [1] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment was optimistic, with the 4000-point level seen as a significant psychological barrier that could attract more retail investment [4] - However, there were cautious voices suggesting that after reaching 4000 points, short-term policy adjustments might occur to prevent overheating in the market [4] Fund Managers' Perspectives - Fund managers expressed a consensus that the overall bullish market framework would continue, despite potential short-term corrections due to profit-taking and high valuations in some sectors [5][10] - Key sectors to watch include leading companies in anti-involution industries such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and chemicals, as well as consumer sectors like meat and dairy products [5] Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a transition from rapid growth to structural adjustments, with CPI remaining below 1% and PPI showing negative growth in several months [7] - The focus is on domestic circulation, with high-end manufacturing emerging as a structural highlight amid ongoing global trade tensions [7] Investment Strategy - The equity market is viewed as the optimal allocation direction, with a focus on technology growth sectors and a selective approach to undervalued companies [6][8] - The investment strategy emphasizes identifying companies with strong earnings growth and reasonable valuations, aiming for stable operations and enhanced returns [5][8] Future Market Trends - The market is expected to experience continued volatility after briefly surpassing the 4000-point mark, with divergent views on future trends [15] - Long-term optimism is supported by the "15th Five-Year Plan," which aims to optimize China's economic transformation and enhance market dynamics [15]

Core Insights - In September 2025, China's bank settlement and sales surplus reached $51 billion, the highest monthly figure since December 2020, indicating a significant shift in cross-border capital flow back to China [1][3] - The total bank settlement in September was $264.7 billion, with sales at $213.6 billion, resulting in a substantial surplus that reflects a fundamental change in corporate financial strategies [3][4] - The depreciation risk of the US dollar, coupled with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, has prompted companies to accelerate the conversion of their dollar assets back to RMB [4][5] Group 1 - The net inflow of foreign capital into China reached $93.1 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, marking four consecutive quarters of net inflow [6] - The onshore RMB appreciated from 7.1805 to 7.1330 against the US dollar by August 2025, the highest level in nearly ten months, supported by increased capital inflows [6] - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to further increase the settlement ratio of exporters, potentially leading to additional RMB strengthening [6][9] Group 2 - The stock market is experiencing a systemic revaluation, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs, indicating strong investor sentiment [6] - A 1% appreciation of the RMB could lead to approximately a 3% increase in the Chinese stock market, creating a "Davis Double Play" effect for international investors [6] - Different industries are experiencing varied impacts from RMB appreciation, with import-dependent sectors like aviation benefiting from reduced procurement costs [6][8] Group 3 - Foreign investment strategies in Chinese assets are diversifying, with a focus on "growth leaders and high-dividend blue chips," particularly in technology and industrial sectors [8] - The shift in capital flow patterns is creating more room for monetary policy adjustments, with continuous surpluses in bank settlements since March 2025 [8][9] - The current market dynamics are fostering a positive feedback loop between RMB appreciation and stock market performance, enhancing liquidity and potentially lowering financing costs [9]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to strengthen, but public REITs with quasi-fixed income attributes have experienced a pullback, with five out of six completed public REITs trading at a discount compared to their expansion prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since the third quarter, the public REITs market has been in a state of fluctuation and pullback, with the CSI REITs Total Return Index dropping over 7% from a peak of 1124.91 points on June 23 to 1045.13 points on October 24 [2]. - Among the six public REITs that have completed expansion, five are currently trading at a discount, with an average discount rate of 12.34% [2]. Group 2: Discount Analysis - Specific REITs have shown significant discounts, such as Huazha Zhangjiang Industrial Park REIT at over 19%, and both CICC ProLogis REIT and Bosera Shekou Industrial Park REIT at over 17% [2]. - The discounts are attributed to the timing of the expansion, which occurred when the REITs market was at a high valuation, leading to a decline in market prices shortly after the expansions [2][4]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - While the short-term impact of discounts may affect market confidence, it is believed that this could lead to a return to value investing in the long run [4]. - The underlying assets' ability to generate stable cash flows and the establishment of effective price discovery and liquidity mechanisms are crucial for long-term market health [4]. Group 4: Investment Value - Current issues in the REITs market include a lack of significant positive changes in the underlying factors that previously drove valuations, such as declining interest rates [5]. - The absolute distribution rates of REITs have improved but still do not present a significant advantage compared to dividend stocks, indicating a need for positive changes on both the asset and parent company levels for price appreciation [5].

Core Insights - The China Securities New Energy Vehicle Industry Index (930997) experienced a decline of 0.34% as of October 23, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - The New Energy Vehicle ETF (515700) decreased by 0.43%, currently priced at 2.33 yuan, but has seen a cumulative increase of 2.09% over the past month, ranking it in the top half among comparable funds [1] - The index includes 50 listed companies involved in various sectors of the new energy vehicle industry, reflecting the overall performance of leading companies in this sector [1] Stock Performance - The top ten weighted stocks in the index as of September 30, 2025, accounted for 54.61% of the total weight, with CATL (300750) leading at 9.80% [2] - Notable stock performances include: - CATL (300750) increased by 0.46% - BYD (002594) decreased by 0.89% - Chang'an Automobile (000625) decreased by 0.65% [4] - The index's PE valuation has returned to historical averages, indicating potential for valuation recovery driven by industry growth and advancements in solid-state batteries and robotics [1]

Core Viewpoint - Significant capital is flowing into the agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors, which are perceived as undervalued despite the overall market stagnation [1][4] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The pig farming industry is currently facing substantial losses due to declining pork prices, which may lead to a significant industry reshuffle [1] - Recent government policies emphasize supply-side reforms, with major pig farming companies required to reduce production by 1 million heads by the end of the year [1] - Historical data indicates that the pig farming sector has experienced four cycles since 2006, and current prices are at a four-year low, suggesting limited downside potential [1][3] Group 2: Market Valuation - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors are viewed as a "golden pit" for investment, with the agricultural ETF's price-to-book ratio at 2.57, placing it in the 29.3 percentile of the last decade [4][5] - The current valuation levels are below historical averages, indicating a potential for significant upside as the industry recovers [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - Long-term projections suggest that as the market clears and supply-side policies take effect, pork prices are expected to stabilize and eventually rise [3] - The correlation between pork prices and the stock prices of pig farming companies is strong, indicating that an increase in pork prices could lead to substantial profits for these companies [3] - Investment institutions express optimism about the agricultural sector's role in food security and economic development, highlighting opportunities in large-scale farming and emerging consumer trends [6]

Core Viewpoint - Huayuan Securities report indicates that Sankeshu achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 744 million yuan in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 81.22% [1] - The third quarter net profit attributable to shareholders was 308 million yuan, up 53.64% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The sales volume of the paint business is performing well, while the waterproof business continues to decline [1] - Cost reduction has driven an overall improvement in gross margin [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of the year was 1.088 billion yuan, an increase of 18.73% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The real estate sector has undergone deep adjustments, and the marginal drag on the home decoration industry may be gradually easing [1] - The paint industry, being closely related to consumer attributes and the second-hand housing market, is showing signs of competitive advantages [1] - The previous judgment that "leading companies' performance bottoms out ahead of the industry" suggests that Sankeshu, as an industry leader, is likely to experience a "Davis Double Hit" opportunity [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report maintains a "buy" rating for Zhaojin Mining (01818) with a target price of HKD 43.72, driven by the clear timeline for the commencement of the Haiyu gold mine and the gradual release of production capacity, which is expected to lead to upward revisions in profit forecasts and valuation [1] - The company reported strong year-on-year growth in Q3, with revenue reaching RMB 12.43 billion, a significant increase of 53.73%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB 2.12 billion, up 140.43% [1] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved revenue of approximately RMB 5.08 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 59.03% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.73%, with net profit of about RMB 678 million, a year-on-year increase of 106.69% [1] Group 2 - The ongoing bull market in gold provides strong support, with the average gold price in Q3 reaching USD 3,459 per ounce, a year-on-year increase of 39.88%, significantly boosting the company's revenue [2] - The Haiyu gold mine, the largest single gold mine discovered in China, has proven reserves exceeding 560 tons and an average grade of 4.20 grams per ton, positioning it as a world-class asset with substantial future value [2] - The Haiyu gold mine's production system has successfully completed initial testing, with full production expected to ramp up between 2026 and 2027, potentially yielding at least 15 tons of gold annually, which will enhance the company's competitive edge due to low production costs [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhaojin Mining (01818) with a target price of HKD 43.72, anticipating upward revisions in profit forecasts due to the clear production timeline and gradual capacity release of the offshore gold mine [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 12.43 billion, a significant year-on-year increase of 53.73% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached approximately RMB 2.12 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 140.43% [2] - For the third quarter alone, the company reported operating revenue of approximately RMB 5.08 billion, a year-on-year increase of 59.03% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.73% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the third quarter was about RMB 678 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 106.69% [2] Group 2: Market Conditions - The international gold price remained strong in the third quarter of 2025, with an average price of USD 3,459 per ounce, marking a year-on-year increase of 39.88% [2] - The rising gold prices significantly boosted the company's revenue, which is the primary reason for the substantial year-on-year growth in performance [2] - The company is expected to benefit from a "Davis Double Play" effect, where production growth coincides with price increases, enhancing both performance and market value [2] Group 3: Asset Value Realization - The offshore gold mine is the largest single gold mine discovered in China, with proven gold reserves exceeding 560 tons and an average grade of 4.20 grams per ton, making it a rare large-scale gold mine [3] - The ore dressing system of the offshore gold mine successfully completed a water trial run in the first half of the year, indicating initial industrial production capability, with full production expected to be achieved gradually from 2026 to 2027 [3] - Once fully operational, the offshore gold mine is anticipated to produce at least 15 tons of gold, with low comprehensive costs per kilogram due to its scale and high-grade characteristics, positioning it as a core engine for the company's future leap in development [3]