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瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250722
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 09:39
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core Views - The overall trend of domestic meal products is stronger than the external market, and rapeseed meal maintains a relatively strong operation. The short - term supply of rapeseed oil is loose, and the inventory pressure of oil mills is high, but the output pressure is weakening, and the long - term pressure may decline. The short - term volatility of rapeseed oil has increased recently [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9477 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2736 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The main contract positions of rapeseed oil decreased by 16433 hands to 225053 hands, and the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions decreased by 6123 hands to 8538 hands. The main contract positions of rapeseed meal were 551501 hands, and the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions increased by 5316 hands to 40412 hands. The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 691 Canadian dollars/ton, down 7.9 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5133 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9700 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2650 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9740 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The import cost of imported rapeseed was 4948.85 yuan/ton, down 48.56 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio was 3.6, up 0.01 [2] Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 9000 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons, an increase of 0.21 million tons. The total rapeseed import volume was 18.45 tons, a decrease of 15.1 tons. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 15 tons, a decrease of 5 tons. The weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed was 15.72%, an increase of 5.86 percentage points [2] Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 34 tons, an increase of 10 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 28.79 tons, an increase of 4.13 tons. The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 9.25 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.2 tons, a decrease of 0.31 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region was 58.45 tons, a decrease of 0.82 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region was 35.13 tons, a decrease of 2.91 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region was 5.6 tons, a decrease of 0.32 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region was 27 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons. The weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil was 2.91 tons, a decrease of 0.38 tons; the weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed meal was 2.32 tons, a decrease of 0.14 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 2762.1 tons, an increase of 98.1 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 tons, a decrease of 87 tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4578.2 billion yuan, an increase of 411.2 billion yuan [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.06%, an increase of 1.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 22.06%, an increase of 1.19 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 16.6%, a decrease of 0.34 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 17.18%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.24%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 14.24%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 12.14%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 12.75%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points [2] Industry News - On July 21st, ICE rapeseed futures closed lower due to good weather in the Canadian prairies, but commercial pricing supported the market. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures contract closed down 6.20 Canadian dollars at 694.10 Canadian dollars per ton. As of the week ending July 20th, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than analysts' expectations of 71%, 70% in the previous week, and 68% in the same period last year [2] Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The current growth of Canadian rapeseed is in the "weather - dominated" stage. The hot weather in the Canadian plains has decreased this week, and there has been favorable rainfall, which has brought some pressure to the market. The arrival of the peak season for aquaculture has increased the feed demand for rapeseed meal, but the good substitution advantage of soybean meal has weakened the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The domestic rapeseed meal market is under pressure from the supply of soybean meal, but the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases provides support for the forward market [2] Rapeseed Oil View Summary - The MPOB report shows that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased by 2.41% to 2.03 million tons at the end of June, and high - frequency data shows that the palm oil production in Malaysia increased from July 1st - 15th, while exports declined, which restricts the palm oil price. The supply of domestic vegetable oil is relatively loose, and the inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills remains high, which continues to restrict the market price. However, the reduction in the oil mill startup rate has significantly weakened the output pressure of rapeseed oil. The resumption of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade may increase supply, and recently, rapeseed oil has been weaker than soybean and palm oil, with increased short - term fluctuations [2] Key Points to Watch - The startup rate of rapeseed oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in each region on Monday, as well as the development of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes [2]
铝:震荡上行,氧化铝:短期情绪偏强铸造,铝合金:跟随电解铝
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 02:37
期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 22 日 铝:震荡上行 氧化铝:短期情绪偏强 铸造铝合金:跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源(联系人) 期货从业资格号:F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【综合快讯】 1. 美欧贸易协议前景黯淡,欧盟考虑"核选项"反制。报道称,美国提出了更严苛的贸易条件,包括 提高关税至 15% 或更高、维持现行的 25% 汽车关税,甚至可能对药品征收 100% 关税。面对美方强硬要求, 德国态度转变,欧盟内部日趋强硬,并考虑动用"反胁迫工具"等报复措施。(华尔街见闻) 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20840 | 330 | 425 | 445 | 360 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20860 | l | l | । | l | | | | LME铝3 ...
PP:现货小涨,成交清淡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 02:07
商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 22 日 PP:现货小涨,成交清淡 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2509 | 7091 | 0.98% | 361,218 | -20749 | | 价 差 | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | | | | 09合约基差 | -61 | | -33 | | | | 09-01合约价差 | - 1 | | 3 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | (元/吨) | 前日价格 | (元/吨) | | | 华北 | 6960 - | 7110 | 6950 - | 7080 | | | 华东 | 7030 - | 7150 | 6980 - | 7120 | | | 华南 | 7010 - | 7200 | 6970 - | 7200 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 资料来源:卓创资讯,隆众资讯、国泰君安期货 ...
瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250721
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 10:06
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the current good weather in US soybean - producing areas leads to a high good - rate and strong expectations of a bumper harvest, which restricts the market price. The import of soybeans in China has increased, and the short - term supply is loose, putting pressure on the meal market. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases provides support. The aquaculture peak season boosts rapeseed meal demand, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market is also concerned about Sino - US trade negotiation news. The price of rapeseed meal continues to rise due to trade policy uncertainties [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the good growth conditions of Canadian rapeseed and the possible resumption of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade put pressure on the market. The MPOb report shows an increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory, which restricts palm oil prices, but news from the US and Indonesia's biodiesel sector is positive for the oil market. In China, the off - season of oil consumption and high inventory of rapeseed oil mills restrict the price. However, the decrease in the mill's operating rate reduces the output pressure, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter may ease the long - term pressure. Recently, rapeseed oil has performed weaker than soybean and palm oil, with increased short - term fluctuations [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9563 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2727 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 698.9 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1.1 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 5153 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 71 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal is 312 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil are 241,486 lots, and the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 14,661 lots, down 3403 lots. The main - contract positions of rapeseed meal are 548,829 lots, and the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 35,096 lots, down 5186 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3487, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 0, down 434 [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9660 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2630 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 4997.41 yuan/ton, up 10.26 yuan [2]. - Basis and price differences: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 74 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 97 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1340 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 690 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 270 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 33.55 tons, down 15.37 tons [2]. - Inventory and operating rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 15 tons, down 5 tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 15.72%, up 5.86 percentage points [2]. Industry Situation - Imports: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 34 tons, up 10 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 28.79 tons, up 4.13 tons [2]. - Inventory and提货量: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 9.25 tons, down 0.04 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.2 tons, down 0.31 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 58.45 tons, down 0.82 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 38.04 tons, up 2.46 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 5.6 tons, down 0.32 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 28.2 tons, down 1.1 tons. The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.29 tons, up 1.18 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.46 tons, up 0.14 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly output of feed is 2762.1 tons, up 98.1 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 tons, down 87 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4578.2 billion yuan, up 411.2 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.87%, down 0.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 20.87%, down 0.1 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.89%, up 2.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 13.85%, up 2.06 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 16.6%, down 0.34 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 17.18%, down 0.11 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 12.14%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 12.75%, down 0.18 percentage points [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed: On July 18th, the ICE rapeseed futures rose slightly but were far below the daily high due to the decline in US soybean oil futures and favorable Canadian crop weather [2]. - US soybean: As of July 13th, 2025, the good - rate of US soybeans was 70%, 4 percentage points higher than the previous week and higher than the analyst's expectation [2].
铝:震荡偏强,氧化铝:资金增仓,铸造铝合金:跟随电解铝
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 02:29
期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 21 日 铝:震荡偏强 氧化铝:资金增仓 铸造铝合金:跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源(联系人) 期货从业资格号:F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20510 | ઠેર | -185 | 260 | -70 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20770 | l | l | ー | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2638 | 49 | 36 | 122 | 88 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 129036 | 26862 | 8811 | -69607 | -86362 | | | 电解铝 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 282655 | 14113 | 27509 | 88027 | 7590 ...
玉米:延续反弹
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-20 10:00
二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 7 月 20 日 玉米:延续反弹 尹恺宜 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0019456 yinkaiyi@gtht.com (1) 玉米市场回顾 现货市场,7 月 18 日当周,玉米现货下跌。据汇易网统计,截至 7 月 18 日,全国玉米均价 2405 元/ 吨,较前一周 2427.96 元/吨下跌 13 元/吨。山东深加工 2440-2510 元/吨,普通畜禽料玉米 2430-2450 元/吨,猪料玉米 2470-2510 元/吨,河南 2350-2490 元/吨,河北 2400-2500 元/吨。黑龙江深加工干 粮收购 2200-2250 元/吨,吉林深加工玉米主流收购 2200-2260 元/吨,内蒙古深加工玉米主流收购 2280-2360 元/吨。北方玉米集港价格 2280-2300 元/吨(挂牌),水分 14.5%-15%,广东蛇口散船 2410-2430 元/吨。 期货市场,7 月 18 日当周盘面反弹。现货情绪好转,价格反弹,盘面受到现货以及整体大宗商品高 涨氛围反弹。主力合约(C2509)最高价 2316 元/吨,最低 2274 元/吨,收盘价 2314 元/吨( ...
瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20250718
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 02:51
锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/7/17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 5,794.00 | +44.00↑ | SF主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 5,482.00 | +74.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量(日,手) | 565,357.00 | +1636.00↑ | SF期货合约持仓量(日,手) | 395,187.00 | -5381.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -52,050.00 | +676.00↑ | 硅铁前20名净持仓(日,手) | -47,514.00 | +6485.00↑ | | | SM1-9月合约价差(日,元/吨) | 38.00 | -6.00↓ | SF1-9月合约价差(日,元/吨) | 64.00 | -14.00↓ | | SM | 仓单(日,张) | 83,372.00 | -463.00↓ SF 仓单(日,张) | | 21,950.00 ...
FICC日报:军工板块再度领涨-20250718
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 02:49
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Citigroup upgraded its rating on the Chinese stock market to "Overweight," with a year - end target of 25,000 for the Hang Seng Index and 4,200 for the CSI 300 Index [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets: Driven by strong growth in US retail sales data in June and a continuous decline in the number of initial jobless claims, the three major US stock indexes closed higher [2] - Domestic markets: The A - share market continues its structural market characteristics. The national defense and military industry sector leads the gains, highlighting the performance - driven main line. Sectors with performance support such as rare earth permanent magnets, biomedicine, and consumer electronics are expected to regain upward momentum based on fundamental advantages after a short - term technical correction [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [5][7][9] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: On July 17, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3,516.83 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.43% to 10,873.62 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.76% to 2,269.33 points, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.68% to 4,034.49 points, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.23% to 2,744.26 points, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.08% to 6,082.46 points, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.14% to 6,535.67 points [12] - **Transaction Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded to 1.5 trillion yuan [1] - **Charts**: Include charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [5][13] Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of IH and IF contracts increased synchronously. The trading volume of IC and IM contracts decreased, while the open interest increased [1][16] - **Basis**: The basis of the current - month contracts basically converged. The report details the basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts [1][36][38] - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts, including next - month minus current - month, next - quarter minus current - month, etc., along with their changes [46][47] - **Charts**: Include charts of contract open interest, open - interest ratios, foreign - funded net open positions, basis, and inter - period spreads for IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [5]
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250717
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 11:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - International corn prices are under continuous pressure due to the good initial growth condition and high output prospects of US corn. In the domestic market, the auction of imported corn shows a downward trend in trading volume and premium, leading to a weakening price. Corn futures prices have been falling from high levels recently [2]. - Corn starch industry's supply pressure has decreased due to continuous production losses and low operating rates. However, downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, resulting in a still loose supply - demand situation. Corn starch prices have declined recently following the fall of corn prices [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2296 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the monthly spread (9 - 1) is 56 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 18280 hands, up 2330 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 184971 hands, down 450 hands; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 350 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2646 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the monthly spread (9 - 11) is 48 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 14647 hands, down 571 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 13094 hands, down 2700 hands [2]. - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 424.5 cents/bushel, up 5.25 cents; the total position is 1498964 contracts, up 297 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 141762 contracts, up 13764 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2409.12 yuan/ton, up 0.2 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn is 1901.84 yuan/ton, down 0.72 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 45 dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn contract is 113.12 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory price in Changchun is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2900 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 34 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 410 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2441.33 yuan/ton, down 1.11 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 139 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is 12 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Corn production forecast: The predicted annual production in the US is 401.85 million tons; in Brazil is 131 million tons; in Argentina is 53 million tons; in China is 295 million tons; in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons [2]. - Corn sowing area forecast: The predicted sowing area in the US is 35.37 million hectares; in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares; in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares; in China is 44.3 million hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 88.6 tons, down 15.5 tons; at northern ports is 353 tons, down 17 tons; the inventory of deep - processing enterprises is 443.6 tons, up 8.2 tons [2]. - Corn starch inventory: The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 134.6 tons, up 0.9 tons [2][3]. - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 19 tons, up 1 ton; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27.78 tons, up 4.06 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2762.1 tons, up 98.1 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Consumption: The weekly consumption of deep - processed corn is 115.78 tons, down 1.85 tons [2]. - Processing profit: The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 138 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; in Hebei is - 11 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin is - 72 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - Operating rate: The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 42.96%, down 1.92%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 50.29%, up 0.15% [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Corn historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.09%, down 0.2%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.95%, down 0.08% [2]. - Corn option implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.5%, up 0.1%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.5%, up 0.1% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday. Analysts expect the net export sales volume of US corn from July 1 - 10, 2025 to be between 900,000 and 2.1 million tons [2]. - As of July 13, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn is 74%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week and higher than 68% in the same period last year [2]. 3.8 Key Points to Follow - Pay attention to the weekly consumption of mysteel corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]
银河期货原油期货早报-20250717
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 06:19
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly, with Brent in the range of 68 - 70 USD/barrel. Medium - term outlook is bearish due to expected oversupply after the 4th quarter [2]. - Asphalt: The unilateral price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the cracking spread is expected to be strong. The BU main contract is expected to trade between 3500 - 3650 [5]. - LPG: The PG price is expected to be weak due to sufficient supply and low downstream purchasing enthusiasm [9]. - Natural gas: US natural gas prices are expected to rise, while European natural gas prices are expected to oscillate [9][10]. - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has some demand support, but the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - PX: Expected to follow the cost side and oscillate in the short term [13]. - PTA: Expected to oscillate and consolidate, with attention to device changes [14]. - Ethylene glycol: Supply is gradually returning, putting pressure on prices, and expected to oscillate and consolidate [17]. - Short - fiber: Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported, and it is expected to oscillate and consolidate [19]. - PET bottle chips: Expected to follow the raw material side and oscillate and consolidate [23]. - Styrene: Expected to oscillate in the short term due to supply and demand changes [27]. - PVC: In the second half of the year, it is in a pattern of oversupply, and prices are expected to be bearish in the medium and short term [30]. - Caustic soda: Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly [30]. - Plastic and PP: Fundamental is weak, and prices are expected to be bearish in the medium and short term [32]. - Glass: Short - term focus on production and sales, medium - term focus on cost reduction and plant cold - repair [35]. - Soda ash: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with attention to policy trends [38]. - Methanol: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with attention to the evolution of the Middle East situation [39]. - Urea: Expected to be weak in the short term, with attention to export policies [43]. - Corrugated paper: Overall in a weak pattern, with some price increases expected [44]. - Offset paper: In a situation of weak supply and demand, prices are expected to be stable [45]. - Logs: It is recommended to wait and see for the near - month contract, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [48]. - Natural rubber and 20 - number rubber: Wait and see for the RU and NR main contracts; hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread [52]. - Butadiene rubber: Try shorting the BR main contract opportunistically [55]. - Pulp: Try shorting a small amount of the SP main contract [57]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2508 closed at 66.38 USD/barrel, down 0.14 USD/barrel (- 0.21%); Brent2509 closed at 68.52 USD/barrel, down 0.19 USD/barrel (- 0.28%); SC main contract 2509 closed at 507 CNY/barrel [1]. - Related News: Trump's attitude towards Powell affected the market; the Fed's economic report indicated cost pressure; EIA data showed changes in US oil inventories and production [1]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - narrow - range oscillation; arbitrage - gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; options - wait and see [2]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2509 closed at 3612 points (- 0.14%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3433 points (- 0.17%) at night [3]. - Related News: Prices in different regions showed different trends, affected by factors such as demand and supply [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; arbitrage - asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; options - wait and see [6]. LPG - Market Review: PG2508 closed at 4072 (- 0.88%) at night; PG2509 closed at 3988 (- 0.77%) at night [6]. - Related News: Prices in different regions had different trends [6][7]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - weak operation [9]. Natural Gas - Market Review: TTF closed at 34.809 (+ 1.06%), HH closed at 3.551 (+ 0.79%), JKM closed at 12.475 (+ 1.42%) [9]. - Related News: US natural gas inventory increased, supply and demand changed [9]. - Trading Strategy: HH unilateral - buy on dips; TTF unilateral - oscillate [10]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU09 closed at 2855 (- 0.56%) at night; LU09 closed at 3568 (- 2.22%) at night [10]. - Related News: Changes in fuel oil inventories and trading volume [11]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see; arbitrage - wait and see [12]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6716 (+ 28/+ 0.42%), and 6684 (- 32/- 0.48%) at night [12]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [13]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [13]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4706 (+ 10/+ 0.21%), and 4696 (- 10/- 0.21%) at night [13]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [14]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [16]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 main contract closed at 4351 (+ 29+0.67%), and 4349 (- 2/- 0.05%) at night [16]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales, equipment shutdown [16]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [18]. Short - fiber - Market Review: PF2508 main contract closed at 6356 (- 12/- 0.19%) during the day, and 6338 (- 18/- 0.28%) at night [19]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [19]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [21]. PET Bottle Chips - Market Review: PR2509 main contract closed at 5886 (+ 16/+ 0.27%), and 5876 (- 10/- 0.17%) at night [20]. - Related News: Stable factory quotes, average market transactions [23]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [24]. Styrene - Market Review: BZ2503 main contract closed at 6166 (+ 22/+ 0.36%) during the day, and 6151 (- 15/- 0.24%) at night; EB2508 main contract closed at 7343 (+ 3/+ 0.04%) during the day, and 7304 (- 39/- 0.53%) at night [24]. - Related News: Changes in port inventories, equipment shutdown [24]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: PVC prices declined, and caustic soda prices were stable [27][30]. - Related News: Changes in PVC and caustic soda inventories, new device production expectations [30]. - Trading Strategy: PVC - bearish in the medium and short term; caustic soda - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [31]. Plastic and PP - Market Review: LLDPE prices declined in some regions, and PP prices had slight changes [32]. - Related News: Changes in maintenance ratios [32]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - bearish in the medium and short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [33]. Glass - Market Review: Glass futures 09 contract closed at 1070 CNY/ton (- 1/- 0.09%), and 1078 CNY/ton (+ 8/+ 0.75%) at night [34]. - Related News: Market conditions in different regions, changes in deep - processing orders [34]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - pay attention to logical conversion; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [36]. Soda Ash - Market Review: Soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1208 CNY/ton (- 6/- 0.5%), and 1215 CNY/ton (+ 7/+ 0.6%) at night [37]. - Related News: Equipment operation, price trends [38]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - prices are expected to be strong, pay attention to policy trends; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [38]. Methanol - Market Review: Methanol futures closed at 2362 (- 14/- 0.59%) at night [39]. - Related News: Changes in production enterprise signing volume [39]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [40]. Urea - Market Review: Urea futures oscillated and closed at 1733 (+ 2/+ 0.12%) [40]. - Related News: Changes in production and inventory, new Indian tender prices [43]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - sell call options on rebounds [44]. Corrugated Paper - Related News: Market prices were stable with some increases, cost and demand situations [44]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Offset Paper - Related News: Market prices were stable, supply and demand situations [45]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Logs - Related News: Price changes, project funds, and market conditions [47]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see for the near - month contract; arbitrage - pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; options - wait and see [49]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - Market Review: RU main 09 contract closed at 14525 (+ 25/+ 0.17%); NR main 09 contract closed at 12485 (- 5/- 0.04%) [49]. - Related News: Changes in export and consumption data [51]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see for RU and NR main contracts; arbitrage - hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread; options - wait and see [52]. Butadiene Rubber - Market Review: BR main 09 contract closed at 11405 (- 45/- 0.39%) [53]. - Related News: Changes in production and shipping index [55]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - try shorting the BR main contract opportunistically; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [55]. Pulp - Market Review: SP main 09 contract closed at 5242, unchanged from the previous day [55]. - Related News: New product launch by Starbucks [56]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - try shorting a small amount of the SP main contract; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [57].