Group 1: Overall Information - The reports cover multiple industries including oils and fats, cotton, sugar, jujube, apple, corn, pig, meal, and egg, providing daily updates on futures and spot market prices, as well as industry analysis and outlooks [1][2][3] Group 2: Oils and Fats Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures maintain a narrow - range oscillation. There are concerns about potential inventory increases. In China, Dalian palm oil futures also show a narrow - range fluctuation around 8,500 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil is in a narrow - range adjustment. Brazilian soybean harvest forecasts may drag down the market. In China, although the Spring Festival stocking may reduce factory inventories, the possibility of large - scale long - position operations by funds is low [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The continuous shutdown of COFCO's rapeseed production line limits the available supply, supporting the rapeseed oil futures market. The market is focused on whether it can break through the 9,200 - yuan resistance level [1]. Market Data Summary - **Soybean oil**: On January 6, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,460 yuan (up 0.59% from the previous day), the futures price of Y2605 was 7,912 yuan (up 0.71%), and the basis of Y2605 was 548 yuan (down 1.08%) [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan (up 0.94%), the futures price of P2605 was 8,500 yuan (up 0.14%), and the basis of P2605 was 70 yuan (up 3400.00%) [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan (down 1.49%), the futures price of O1605 was 9,130 yuan (up 0.95%), and the basis of O1605 was 770 yuan (down 23.46%) [1]. Group 3: Cotton Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - ICE cotton futures rose. The US cotton market is expected to be affected by planting area reduction, temperature rise, and precipitation decrease. In China, processing enterprises are holding prices, and the core drivers are the strong expectation of reduced planting in Xinjiang and downstream restocking. However, due to the low cost of foreign cotton and weak demand, cotton prices are expected to maintain a slightly - strong oscillation in the short term [2]. Market Data Summary - **Futures market**: On January 6, the price of cotton 2605 was 14,855 yuan/ton (up 1.36%), and the price of cotton 2609 was 15,040 yuan/ton (up 1.31%) [2]. - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15,487 yuan (up 0.29%), and the CC Index of 3128B was 15,711 yuan (up 0.61%) [2]. - **Industry situation**: The import volume increased by 33.3%, the inventory of the textile industry decreased by 500.0% year - on - year, and the cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6% [2]. Group 4: Sugar Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - ICE raw sugar futures rose slightly. The focus has shifted to the northern hemisphere's sugarcane production. In India, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season has increased by nearly 25% compared to the same period last year. In China, the spot market is dull, but the Spring Festival stocking demand and the positive atmosphere of bulk commodities support the price. However, due to the peak of the sugar - making season, the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [3]. Market Data Summary - **Futures market**: On January 6, the price of white sugar 2605 was 5,259 yuan/ton (up 0.04%), and the price of white sugar 2609 was 5,275 yuan/ton (up 0.11%) [3]. - **Spot market**: The price in Nanning was 5,340 yuan (up 0.19%), and the price in Kunming was 5,200 yuan (unchanged) [3]. - **Industry situation**: The national cumulative sugar production decreased by 23.24%, and the cumulative sugar sales decreased by 42.53% [3]. Group 5: Jujube Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The acquisition in Xinjiang's jujube - producing areas has ended. Downstream demand is based on needs, and the number of buyers has increased, but the transaction has not improved significantly. After the futures rebound, the generation of new - season warehouse receipts is gradually increasing. In the short term, the fundamentals have no obvious drivers, and the futures price will oscillate and consolidate [6]. Market Data Summary - On January 6, the price of jujube 2605 was 8,975 yuan/ton (up 0.22%), and the price of jujube 2607 was 9,045 yuan/ton (down 0.06%) [6]. Group 6: Apple Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - With the approaching of the Spring Festival stocking season, the trading atmosphere in the apple market has warmed up, but the high price may suppress consumption. The inventory pressure of ordinary apples is large. In the futures market, the short - term delivery logic dominates, the capital sentiment is strong, the futures price is stronger than the spot price, and the basis is weakening, while the delivery profit is gradually recovering [7]. Market Data Summary - On January 6, the price of apple 2605 was 9,614 yuan/ton (up 0.70%), and the price of apple 2610 was 8,531 yuan/ton (up 0.96%) [7]. Group 7: Corn Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the corn market, there is still reluctance to sell in the Northeast and North China, and the price is relatively stable. Before the Spring Festival, there is a selling pressure expectation. On the demand side, the low inventory in the northern ports supports the price, but the acceptance of high - price corn by deep - processing and feed enterprises is limited. Policy - wise, the directional auction of imported corn and the start of competitive sales supplement the market supply. In the short term, the price will oscillate under the game of multiple factors [9]. Market Data Summary - On January 6, the price of corn 2603 was 2,222 yuan/ton (down 0.09%), and the price of corn starch 2603 was 2,501 yuan/ton (down 0.32%) [9]. Group 8: Pig Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The spot price of pigs has returned to an oscillating pattern. After New Year's Day, the market demand has declined. Although the northern supply has decreased, the southern demand has dropped significantly, suppressing the price. In December, the utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens increased, but it is expected that these pigs will be slaughtered in mid - to - late January. The overall supply in January is relatively loose. The futures market is affected by capital sentiment and is short - term bullish, but the upside is limited [12]. Market Data Summary - On January 6, the price of the main pig 2605 contract was 12,255 yuan/ton (up 1.20%), and the price of the pig 2603 contract was 11,810 yuan/ton (up 1.29%) [12]. Group 9: Meal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - US soybeans rebounded technically, but the global supply - demand pattern and South American harvest expectations continue to suppress the market. The domestic spot market remains loose. The cost of the 05 contract is under pressure, but the downside of soybean meal is limited. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate slightly stronger [15]. Market Data Summary - On January 6, the price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3,100 yuan (unchanged), the price of M2605 was 2,776 yuan (up 0.80%), and the basis of M2605 was 324 yuan (down 6.36%) [15]. Group 10: Egg Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Based on the previous chicken - chick sales volume, the number of laying hens in January is expected to decrease, and the supply pressure will be relieved. The market is shipping smoothly, and with the approaching of the peak season, the downstream is stocking slightly, and the market sentiment is bullish. However, considering the relatively loose supply, the main contract is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [18]. Market Data Summary - On January 6, the price of the egg 03 contract was 2,992 yuan/500KG (up 0.27%), and the price of the egg 04 contract was 3,250 yuan/500KG (down 0.03%) [18].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 蛋白粕： （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 周二，CBOT大豆收低，自一周高点回落。美国农业部网站消息，民间出口商向中国出口销售33.6万吨 大豆，一度提振盘面涨至一周高点。但市场担忧南美丰产压力，盘面最终回落。市场等待下周二发布的 美国农业部公布的供需报告。国内方面，两粕震荡走高。商品市场回暖，大豆进口成本走高，均提振蛋 白粕价格。近月合约涨幅超过远月合约。本周油厂压榨量预计小幅恢复，现货供应压力再次增加，下游 谨慎采购中，滚动操作，预计本周豆粕库存或再次攀升。供需报告前，市场缺乏指引，豆粕上下空间均 有限，区间震荡思路不变。策略上，双卖策略。 油脂： （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 周二，BMD棕榈油因马币走强下跌。但周边市场走强限制了跌幅。市场等待下周的MPOB报告结果。 调查显示，预计马棕油12月库存攀升至近七年来最高水平。经销商表示，印度12月棕榈油进口量降至8 个月低点。现货市场上，马棕油跌幅超过印尼棕榈油。国内方面，市场氛围偏暖，商品普遍上涨，油 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the domestic supply is tightening due to restrictions on near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal and the current shutdown of oil mills. Import soybean clearance policies also affect near - month supply. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and a relatively loose supply - demand pattern of Canadian rapeseed restrain prices. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and generally fluctuates with soybean meal [2]. - For rapeseed oil, domestic oil mills are still shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, which supports prices and keeps the basis at a high level. Import soybean clearance policies affect near - month supply, while the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations increase long - term supply pressure. The market is affected by the strengthening of soybean oil [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9,130 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2,390 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 611.4 Canadian dollars/ton, up 7.4 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 5,448 yuan/ton, up 116 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) is 52 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; rapeseed meal (5 - 9) is - 47 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 220,345 lots, up 15,404 lots; rapeseed meal is 662,451 lots, up 17,751 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is - 18,486 lots, up 5,499 lots; rapeseed meal is - 45,495 lots, down 5,351 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 3,297 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal is 0 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,900 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,440 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,570 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil is 10,018.75 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 7,456.26 yuan/ton, up 97.53 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis is 770 yuan/ton, down 236 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis is 50 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread is 1,450 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot spread is 1,330 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 660 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; domestic rapeseed production annual forecast is 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Rapeseed import volume is 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 626 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan [2]. - Oil mill rapeseed inventory is 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal is 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. - The weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.3 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. - East China rapeseed oil inventory is 26.7 million tons, down 1.4 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 16.7 million tons, down 0.3 million tons [2]. - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 24.6 million tons, down 1.3 million tons [2]. - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 0.4 million tons, down 0.34 million tons; weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production is 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 6,057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan [2]. - Edible vegetable oil production is 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. Option Market - For rapeseed meal: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.06%, down 0.38%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.05%, down 0.39%; the 20 - day historical volatility is 13.87%, down 0.12%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 11.59%, down 0.08% [2]. - For rapeseed oil: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 14.68%, up 0.05%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 14.69%, up 0.06%; the 20 - day historical volatility is 17.15%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.21%, down 0.78% [2]. Industry News - On January 5 (Monday), ICE rapeseed futures rose more than 1%, but remained in a narrow range since before Christmas. The March rapeseed futures contract rose 6.90 Canadian dollars or 1.14% to 610.80 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. Key Points to Follow - Monitor the rapeseed startup rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from myagricultural.com on Monday, as well as the development of China - Canada trade relations. Also, pay attention to the possibility of opening commercial purchases of Australian rapeseed [2].

研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 难以形成需求支撑。成本方面，市场认为委内瑞拉原油产量恢复需要时间，昨日国际油价震荡上涨。短期L 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 塑料产业日报 2026-01-06 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6579 | 130 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6329 | 89 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6579 | 130 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6618 | 122 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 457863 | 60422 持仓量(日,手) | 507885 | -1038 | | | 1-5价差 | -250 | -41 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 432078 | 8010 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 06 日 纸浆：宽幅震荡 20260106 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.530 | 5, 532 | -2 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.544 | - | - | | | | 成交量(手) | 223. 450 | 258. 678 | -35. 228 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量(手) | 213, 721 | 206. 636 | +7.085 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 115,576 | 104. 487 | +11.089 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -23,560 | -23, 481 | -79 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | 70 | ୧୫ | +2 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -830 | -832 | +2 | | | 月差 | SP03-SP05 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5] Report's Core View - The soybean market shows a game pattern of "bullish in producing areas and weak in selling areas", with policy support highlighting. The peanut market has a generally loose supply, but the actual trading activity is average due to the psychological reluctance of farmers and traders to sell [1][2][3] Market Analysis Soybean - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybeans 2605 contract was 4,243.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan/ton or 0.05% from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The edible soybean spot basis was A05 + 97, up 38 or 32.14% from the previous day. The spot prices in different regions of Heilongjiang varied from 2.12 to 2.33 yuan/jin [1] - **Market Situation**: The soybean futures main contract rose and then fell. The prices in southern selling areas were stable. The price transmission was blocked due to the low acceptance of high - priced raw materials by downstream enterprises, resulting in light trading. The policy support was significant, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased as needed [1][2] Peanut - **Futures**: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 7,938.00 yuan/ton, down 54.00 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous day [3] - **Spot**: The average peanut spot price was 8,036.00 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan/ton or 0.11% month - on - month. The spot basis was PK03 - 938.00, up 54.00 or - 5.44% month - on - month. The prices of different peanut varieties in various regions were stable [3] - **Market Situation**: The peanut futures main contract weakened. The overall peanut supply was loose, but the actual trading activity was average due to the reluctance of farmers and traders to sell. The downstream food enterprises mainly had rigid demand, and the demand from oil mills decreased [3][4] Strategy - The strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5]

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2026年1月6日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡下跌，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，少量聚酯工厂补货，现货基差略走弱。本周货源在05-50附近成交， 月中少量在05-46~48成交，价格商谈区间在4970~5090。1月下在05-45附近有成交。仓单在05-40~45成交。今日主流现货基差在 05-49。中性 6、预期：近期伴随部分装置供应回归，PTA供需格局环比转弱，现货市场节后商谈氛围一般，现货基差略有松动，预计短期内 PTA现货价格跟随成本端震荡，现货基差区间波动。关注油价波动及上下游装置变动。 MEG 每日观点 6、预期：近期受大风天气影响， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - Multiple commodities are in various market conditions, including high - level oscillations, short - term upward trends, and medium - term pressure. For example, p - xylene and PTA are in a high - level oscillation market supported by costs; MEG has limited upward space and medium - term pressure; synthetic rubber has a short - term upward central shift; methanol is expected to be short - term strong [2][9][10][14][38]. - The market trends of different commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical factors, and cost changes. For instance, the supply and demand of PX and PTA are affected by device startups and shutdowns; the prices of LPG and methanol are affected by geopolitical factors; the prices of urea are affected by demand expectations [9][10][38][41]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Data**: PX, PTA, and MEG futures prices declined on the previous trading day, with declines of - 0.69%, - 1.25%, and - 1.87% respectively. PX CFR China prices dropped, PTA prices in East China decreased, and MEG spot prices also fell. PX - naphtha spreads and PTA processing fees increased slightly, while short - fiber and bottle - chip processing fees decreased [5]. - **Market Dynamics**: PX prices fell due to the decline in naphtha prices; Pakistan imposed anti - dumping duties on PTA imports from China; MEG port inventories in East China decreased slightly [6]. - **Trend and Suggestions**: PX has strong cost support, and long - spread positions can be held. PTA is in a high - level oscillation market, and long - spread operations can be maintained. MEG has a medium - term weak trend, and short - spread positions can be held [9][10]. Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Rubber futures prices rose, trading volume and open interest increased, and the net short position of the top 20 members decreased. Spot - futures spreads and some variety spreads changed [11]. - **Industry News**: As of January 4, 2026, natural rubber inventories in Qingdao increased, and the production of some enterprises was in the recovery stage after the "New Year's Day" holiday [12][13]. - **Trend**: Rubber is in an oscillating operation [11]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of synthetic rubber rose, trading volume decreased, and open interest decreased. The prices of butadiene and some synthetic rubber products increased, while the profit of butadiene rubber decreased [14]. - **Industry News**: As of December 31, 2025, domestic butadiene rubber inventories decreased; butadiene inventories in East China ports increased. Short - term geopolitical conflicts may lead to a short - term strong trend in butadiene and butadiene rubber [15][16]. - **Trend**: The short - term central shift of synthetic rubber is upward [14]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: LLDPE futures prices declined, the 05 - contract basis strengthened, and spot prices in North, East, and South China increased [17]. - **Market Situation**: The spot market had positive feedback in the short term, and inventory was transferred to the middle stream. The raw material price of crude oil rebounded, and the profit of PE ethylene and ethane processes was compressed. There is medium - term supply - demand pressure [17][18]. - **Trend**: LLDPE is in a neutral trend [18]. PP - **Fundamental Data**: PP futures prices declined, the 05 - contract basis strengthened, and spot prices in North, East, and South China increased [19]. - **Market Situation**: The cost of crude oil and propane is strong, the supply - demand game of existing capacity intensifies, and the demand is weak. It is expected to continue the weak trend, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [19][20]. - **Trend**: PP is in a neutral trend [20]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Data**: The 03 - contract futures price of caustic soda and the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong are provided, and the basis is - 8 [21]. - **Market Situation**: After the New Year's Day, the caustic soda contract prices fell due to delivery factors, but the short - term decline based on delivery factors is limited. The fundamentals show a pattern of high production and high inventory, and the demand is weak [23]. - **Trend**: It is not advisable to chase short positions in caustic soda [21][23]. Pulp - **Fundamental Data**: Pulp futures prices were relatively stable, trading volume decreased, and open interest increased. Spot prices of some pulp varieties were stable, and spreads changed slightly [28]. - **Industry News**: Spot prices were stable, port inventories were in a cumulative trend, and downstream demand was weak [29]. - **Trend**: Pulp is in a wide - range oscillating market [26]. Glass - **Fundamental Data**: Glass futures prices declined, the 05 - contract basis strengthened slightly, and spot prices in Shahe, Hubei, and Zhejiang were stable [32]. - **Market Situation**: Domestic float glass prices were generally stable, and the sales of most regional enterprises were average during the holiday [32]. - **Trend**: Glass is in a neutral trend [32]. Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: Methanol futures prices declined slightly, the basis strengthened, and spot prices in some regions changed [35]. - **Market Situation**: The spot price index of methanol decreased, port inventories were at a high level but were expected to improve. Geopolitical factors and supply expectations led to a short - term strong trend, and there is a pressure level at 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton [37][38]. - **Trend**: Methanol is expected to be short - term strong [38]. Urea - **Fundamental Data**: Urea futures prices rose, trading volume increased significantly, and open interest increased. Spot prices of some urea factories increased slightly, and inventories decreased [40][41]. - **Industry News**: As of December 31, 2025, domestic urea enterprise inventories decreased. The spot trading was active, and the medium - term central shift of urea was upward [41]. - **Trend**: The central shift of urea is upward [39][42]. Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: Styrene futures prices declined, and spreads and inventories changed [43]. - **Market Situation**: The current valuation is high, and there are opportunities to short at high levels. The medium - term drive is weak, and there is pressure in the first quarter [44][46]. - **Trend**: Styrene is in a short - term oscillating market [43]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Data**: Soda ash futures prices declined, the 05 - contract basis strengthened, and spot prices in North, East, and Central China decreased [49]. - **Market Situation**: The domestic soda ash market was weak, supply increased, and demand was average [49]. - **Trend**: Soda ash is in a neutral trend [50]. LPG and Propylene - **Fundamental Data**: LPG and propylene futures prices had different changes, trading volume and open interest changed, and spreads and industry data such as PDH and MTBE operating rates were provided [54]. - **Market Situation**: The price of 2 - month CP paper goods for LPG decreased, and there are many domestic PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans. Propylene has limited upward and downward drivers, and the spot trend is stable [59][60]. - **Trend**: LPG and propylene are in a neutral trend [58]. PVC - **Fundamental Data**: PVC futures prices and spot prices, basis, and spreads are provided [63]. - **Market Situation**: The PVC spot market was in a weak - oscillating state, supply was expected to increase, and demand was weak. The market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the probability of large - scale production reduction is expected to increase after the 03 - contract [63]. - **Trend**: PVC is short - term strong and medium - term oscillating [62]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices declined, trading volume and open interest changed, and spot prices in different regions decreased [67]. - **Trend**: The upward trend of fuel oil has paused, and there is support below; low - sulfur fuel oil is in a narrow - range oscillating market [67]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of the container freight index (European line) increased, trading volume and open interest increased, and freight rate indices and current freight rates changed [69]. - **Market Situation**: The index showed an oscillating and strong trend, mainly driven by the price increase of MSC. The 1 - month shipping capacity was relatively stable, and the 2 - month shipping capacity may be affected by the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the opening of shipping spaces and pricing strategies [76][77][78]. - **Trend**: The container freight index (European line) is in a neutral trend [81]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - **Fundamental Data**: Short - fiber and bottle - chip futures prices declined, trading volume and open interest changed, and spot prices decreased [82]. - **Market Situation**: Short - fiber futures prices oscillated and declined, and the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were differentiated. The prices of bottle - chip factories decreased, and the market transaction was okay [82][83]. - **Trend**: Short - fiber and bottle - chip are in a short - term oscillating market [82][83]. Offset Printing Paper - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of offset printing paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets were stable, and the cost and profit of paper were provided [85]. - **Industry News**: The prices of high - white and natural - white offset printing paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets were stable, the demand was weak, and the trading was general [86][88]. - **Trend**: It is advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper [85]. Pure Benzene - **Fundamental Data**: Pure benzene futures prices declined, port inventories increased, and spreads and inventories of related products changed [89]. - **News**: As of January 5, 2026, pure benzene port inventories in Jiangsu and China increased, and the price of Shandong pure benzene decreased [90]. - **Trend**: Pure benzene is in a short - term oscillating market [89].

Group 1: Protein Meal - CBOT soybeans rose on Monday, supported by early-year fund buying and a general market uptrend [2][10] - U.S. soybean net sales for the week ending December 25 reached 1.1777 million tons, an increase from the previous week but below the four-week average [2][10] - StoneX raised Brazil's soybean production forecast to 177.6 million tons, while domestic protein meal prices experienced narrow fluctuations due to weak spot basis and rising inventories [2][10] Group 2: Oils - BMD palm oil increased on Monday due to a weaker Malaysian ringgit and stronger U.S. soybean oil [3][11] - December palm oil inventory in Malaysia reached a seven-year high, driven by strong production outpacing moderate export improvements [3][11] - Domestic oil markets showed divergence, with palm oil declining significantly while soybean and canola oils remained strong [3][11] Group 3: Live Pigs - Post-holiday live pig prices showed a decline, with the main futures contract dropping 1.14% to 11,660 yuan/ton [5][12] - The average daily price of live pigs in China was 12.44 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week and 0.36 yuan/kg from before the holiday [5][12] - Southern regions maintained normal supply but faced weak demand, while northern regions experienced tight supply of heavier pigs, providing some price support [5][12] Group 4: Eggs - Demand before New Year was limited, resulting in stable egg prices during the holiday period [6][13] - The main futures contract for eggs rose 1.39% to 2,992 yuan/500 kg on the first trading day after the holiday [6][13] - Current egg prices across various markets remained stable, with slight increases in some areas, while supply pressures exist despite a declining trend in inventory [6][13] Group 5: Corn - Corn prices initially fell before rebounding on Monday, influenced by negative policies regarding wheat sales [7][14] - The spot market for corn remained stable with low transaction volumes, particularly in the Northeast region [7][14] - Farmers exhibited a reluctance to sell, leading to a slow market, while expectations for increased purchasing activity are anticipated as the Spring Festival approaches [7][14]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The national live - hog spot price has shifted upwards before the festival, but there is still an expectation of weakening after the festival due to supply - demand dynamics [5]. - The corn market is in a state of supply - demand game in the short term, and the futures market should be treated with a short - term trading mindset [8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Live - hog - Futures: Last week, the live - hog futures opened slightly higher. The LH2603 contract closed at 11,795 yuan/ton, up 1.81% from the previous week's settlement price [5]. - Spot: The national average price of outer three - yuan live hogs was 12.24 yuan/kg, up 0.61 yuan/ton week - on - week. As of January 2nd, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 34.59 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 95.52 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 48.35 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 114.35 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.37, up 0.35 week - on - week [5]. - Market trend: Before the festival, the supply decreased and the market was active, with strong price - holding sentiment. After the festival, the supply pressure is limited at the beginning of the month, but the supply - demand situation may lead to a weakening price [5]. Corn - Futures: Last week, the corn futures rose and then fell. The C2603 contract closed at 2,226 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the previous week's settlement price [6]. - Spot: The national average spot price of corn was 2,351.57 yuan/ton, up 12.94 yuan/ton week - on - week. Port prices showed different trends, with some remaining flat and some falling [6]. - Consumption: From December 25th to 31st, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 138.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.41 tons. The processing volume, production, and operating rates of corn starch and corn alcohol enterprises all decreased [7]. - Inventory: As of December 31st, 2025, the total inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 349.4 tons, with an increase of 3.43% [7]. - Market trend: The spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. The selling pace of farmers slowed down, but the continuous auction of imported corn supplemented the supply. Deep - processing enterprises had inventory replenishment needs but limited purchasing power for high - priced corn, resulting in a supply - demand game [8].