欧美贸易谈判进展甚微，特朗普贸易团队向欧盟施压：要么单方面降低关税，要么面对20%惩罚性关 税。 周五，据媒体援引知情人士消息，美国贸易代表Jamieson Greer准备告知欧盟贸易官员Maroš Šefčovič， 欧盟最近分享的"解释性说明"远未达到美方期望。 具体来看，美国对欧盟仅提供相互关税削减而非单方面降低关税感到不满，尤其是在其他一些贸易伙伴 已向华盛顿提出类似单方面让步的背景下。更令美方不悦的是，欧盟未将其提议的数字税作为谈判要 点，而这正是美国的明确要求。 Greer和Šefčovič计划下月在巴黎会面，这被视为双方能否避免贸易争端升级的关键。尽管欧美已开始 交换谈判文件，但双方在实质问题上进展甚微。据央视新闻此前报道，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩当地时 间9日在布鲁塞尔表示，在欧美能够进行具体的贸易谈判之前，她不会前往华盛顿会见美国总统特朗 普。 一位了解谈判情况的第三方官员对达成避免达成协议并不乐观，直言： 交换信函不是真正的进展，我们仍然没有真正取得任何进展。 英国模式难以复制，欧盟谈判面临更大压力 欧盟作为美国最大的贸易伙伴之一，目前面临艰难抉择：要么接受美方单方面降低关税的要求，要么拒 ...

Group 1 - China's export controls on strategic minerals such as gallium, germanium, antimony, tungsten, and rare earths are aimed at preventing illegal outflows and smuggling, while ensuring compliance and supply chain stability [1][3] - The U.S. is heavily reliant on Chinese rare earths, with the semiconductor, automotive, and military industries facing significant challenges due to this dependency, making any resolution painful for the U.S. [3][5] - The Chinese government has implemented strict controls on rare earth exports, with China accounting for over 60% of global rare earth production and controlling 92% of processing capacity, indicating a near-monopoly position [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. government is considering significantly reducing tariffs on Chinese imports in hopes of negotiating concessions from China, including the lifting of rare earth export restrictions [1][5] - The production of advanced military equipment in the U.S., such as the F-35 fighter jet, is at risk due to potential disruptions in rare earth supply, which is critical for performance enhancement [5][7] - The rare earth issue transcends trade disputes, representing a struggle for technological dominance and geopolitical influence, which will significantly impact the global industrial chain [7]

【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间5月20日凌晨，国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨1.41% 报3232.20美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨0.44%报32.50美元/盎司。 对此有市场分析人士认为，受穆迪下调美国主权信用评级影响，全球市场避险情绪升温，黄金和白银价 格显著上扬。黄金因其保值属性受关注，白银则凭借工业用途和关联性成为吸纳资金对象。 中信建投期货近日撰文认为，近期贵金属行情的核心驱动无疑是贸易争端，对黄金而言，一方面是全球 地缘政治格局演变的一个侧面体现，另一方面又加大了经济衰退压力，使得黄金避险与保值功能体现明 显。 该机构还表示，尽管近期中美达成共识，部分降低了关税，缓和了经济下行风险，但也应意识到目前关 税水平尚未回到4月以前水平，经济下行压力依然存在，并且国际局势正在发生深刻的变化，长期的地 缘政治冲突、贸易冲突乃至军事冲突频发的环境，成为金价长期上行的驱动力。 鑫元基金则认为，短期来看，黄金价格仍可能面临震荡偏弱格局，中美博弈短期内降温、美联储政策预 期暂稳和美元相对强势可能持续抑制金价上行动力。然而，从中长期视角出发，支撑黄金的基本逻辑并 未发生根本变化。一方面，全球央行特 ...

我们也知道，此前特朗普一直在吹嘘说，有几十个国家领导人，在找他谈关税问题。印度主动找美方谈判之后，不断向美国做出让步，从 贸易问题到移民问题，印度几乎已经看到希望，能够与美方达成贸易协议。 然而中国的出现改变了一切，中国与美国在日内瓦的谈判，让印度看到了希望。印度人一直认为，中国行、印度也行，因此印度方面公开 指责美国，征收25%钢铝关税是贸易保障措施，对印度价值76亿美元的出口造成了影响，预计将产生19.1亿美元的关税。作为这一情况的回 应回应，印度拟提高部分美国商品的关税。目前美国方面暂未对此做出回应。 据悉印度商务部长将在一周后访问美国，开展新一轮贸易谈判，预计莫迪政府此时宣布对美加征重税，就是要借此作为谈判筹码，对特朗 普政府施压，逼迫对方让步。 特朗普最担心的事情发生了，中美互降关税的结果就是，其他经济体看到了对美谈判的希望，纷纷找美国索要他们理应得到的待遇。 近日中美经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦举行，双方同意在90天内降低关税，将税率下调115%。这一消息迅速引起国际社会和市场的高度关 注，外界普遍认为，这是世界最大的两个经济体，在解决贸易争端过程中迈出的重要一步。 然而有一个有意思的现象是，就在中美 ...

周一亚洲早盘，现货金一度冲高至3,245美元/盎司，随后维持在3,230美元上方震荡。 消息面解读：穆迪调降美国主权信用评级至Aa1后，市场对美国财政赤字与经济前景的担忧升温，避险买盘重返贵金属市场，上周创下六个月来最大周跌幅 的颓势被部分收复。美元指数回落与美债收益率下滑共同为金价提供支撑。穆迪下调评级虽在意料之外，却凸显美国财政挑战的中长期风险，叠加全球地缘 冲突与关税不确定性，使黄金的避险和对冲价值再度凸显。与此同时，美联储理事巴尔的最新表态也值得关注。他虽认为美国经济基础稳固，但也警告称贸 易争端可能令前景蒙阴。这种"鹰中带鸽"的言论，进一步巩固了美元的强势地位，间接加剧了黄金的跌势。 5月17日，美国金融市场迎来一场"黑色风暴"——国际评级机构穆迪突然将美国主权信用评级从顶级"AAA"下调至"AA+"，这是美国三年内第三次失去三大 评级机构的最高评级。这一决定如同一枚深水炸弹，瞬间引发股债汇三杀，美国国债收益率飙升，黄金价格则因避险需求逆势走强。现在穆迪评级的影响金 价飙升，在周评分析中，我表述出看空的的思路，也解析看空的缘由。今日亚盘高点也与我们周评布空的点位吻合，截止发文最低报价3214附近，如 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term macro trade disputes have improved, and the positive macro impact has been mostly reflected in the market. With the continuous improvement of supply and demand, nickel prices are expected to be boosted. However, there are still uncertainties in the timely increase of Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB approval quota, and policy disturbance risks remain. The Indonesian government's increase in the privilege use fee for nickel resources has raised the supply - side cost. The recommended strategy is to conduct short - term long trading on the SHFE nickel 2507 contract and sell out - of - the - money put options. Later, attention should be paid to changes in the mining end, stainless steel production, and trade disputes [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - long View and Strategy - **Macro**: The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks reached a joint statement on reducing or canceling relevant tariffs. The US adjusted its additional tariffs on Chinese goods, with 91% of the tariffs revoked and 34% of the reciprocal tariff measures implemented, of which 24% of the tariffs were suspended for 90 days. In April, China's social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, accelerating compared with the previous month [8]. - **Supply**: In 2025, the RKAB approval quota for nickel ore provides sufficient raw material guarantee for smelters, but there are uncertainties in its timely increase, and policy risks remain. In April, China's nickel - iron production decreased slightly, while Indonesia's remained high. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises decreased, and the output in April decreased month - on - month. In April 2025, the total output of domestic refined nickel was 36,450 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease [8]. - **Demand**: In April, the demand for stainless steel recovered, but the domestic stainless steel inventory was still high, exceeding 1 million tons among 78 sample enterprises. In the new energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is on a downward trend, and the output of ternary materials rebounded from a low level in April [8]. - **Inventory**: Last week, LME nickel inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, as did the SHFE inventory. The social inventory of refined nickel was 42,791 tons, a decrease from the previous week [8]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industry chain includes nickel ore (red - soil nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, nickel - iron, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and end - use industries such as stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [10]. 3.3. Spot and Futures Market - Not provided with specific analysis content other than the mention of LME nickel premium/discount and SHFE electrolytic nickel main contract basis charts 3.4. Supply Side - **Nickel Ore**: In 2024, China's imports of Philippine nickel ore decreased significantly. In December 2024, imports were 36.5763 million tons, a 21.7% year - on - year decrease. In 2025, imports in January, February, and March were 91,190 tons, 114,600 tons, and 153,500 tons respectively [21]. - **Nickel - Iron**: In 2024, Indonesia's nickel - iron output was 1.5138 million nickel tons, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. In April 2025, the output was 159,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase in supply. In 2024, domestic nickel - iron output was 296,400 nickel tons, a 20.9% year - on - year decrease. In April 2025, the output was 21,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease in supply. From January to March 2025, China's nickel - iron imports were 929,000 tons, 909,000 tons, and 1.013 million tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 4.4%, 23.4%, and 60% respectively. In April 2025, the nickel - iron inventory was 19,300 tons [24][27]. - **Refined Nickel**: In 2025, with the continuous release of electrowinning nickel production capacity, the supply of pure nickel maintained an expanding trend. In April 2025, the total domestic refined nickel output was 36,450 tons, and the apparent consumption in March 2025 was 29,837.1 tons. From January to March 2025, China's nickel imports were 234,000 tons, 185,000 tons, and 219,000 tons respectively, showing a high - level decline month - on - month. From January to March 2025, China's exports were 17,000 tons, 23,000 tons, and 16,000 tons respectively [32][35]. 3.5. Intermediates - **Wet - process Intermediates**: According to MYSTEEL research statistics, the output of Indonesia's MHP (nickel - cobalt hydroxide) in April 2025 was 31,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease [40]. - **High - grade Nickel Matte**: The output growth of Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte was relatively pressured this year. In 2024, the output was 267,000 tons, an 8.54% year - on - year increase. In March and April 2025, the output was 16,700 tons and 12,000 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there are more planned production capacities for intermediates from 2025 to 2027 [44]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: In 2024, the output of nickel sulfate was 386,100 nickel tons, a 0.44% year - on - year increase. In April 2025, the output was 31,393 tons, a month - on - month decrease. From January to March 2025, the imports of nickel sulfate were 14,021.9 tons, 16,421.4 tons, and 18,380 tons respectively [47]. 3.6. Demand Side - **Stainless Steel Demand**: In 2024, the release of stainless steel production capacity was relatively slow. The output of 43 sample stainless steel enterprises was 38.2582 million tons, a 7.43% year - on - year increase. In April 2025, the stainless steel output was 3.5025 million tons, returning to a high level. The latest total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,058,355 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease [51]. - **Positive Electrode Material Demand**: In 2024, the output of ternary precursors was 773,100 tons, a 1.5% year - on - year decrease. From the perspective of the power battery structure, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20%. It is expected that driven by the trade - in policy in 2025, the total terminal demand will still have inertia. In April 2025, the output of ternary positive electrode materials was 61,900 tons, continuing to rise from a low level [55]. 3.7. Inventory Side - **Social and Bonded - area Inventory**: As of May 9, 2025, the social inventory of refined nickel was 42,791 tons, a slight decrease from the previous week [60]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of May 14, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 198,516 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease. As of May 15, 2025, the SHFE inventory was 23,344 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease [64].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have caused significant pain for American businesses, leading to a temporary pause in tariffs following the recent US-China trade talks [1][8] - Following the Geneva trade talks, both the US and China agreed to suspend certain tariffs for an initial period of 90 days, which has made Chinese automotive parts more attractive to the US market [1][9] - The automotive industry is optimistic about the trade talks, but there are concerns about the long-term stability of the tariff agreements due to the unpredictable nature of the Trump administration's policies [1][12] Group 2 - The US will suspend the 24% tariff on Chinese goods for 90 days while retaining a 10% tariff, and China will reciprocate by suspending its own tariffs on US goods [3][6] - Despite the temporary suspension, significant tariffs remain in place, particularly on electric vehicles, semiconductors, and automotive parts, with total tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles reaching as high as 132.5% [7][8] - The recent tariff adjustments have led to a recovery in trade between the US and China, with companies like Tesla planning to import Chinese parts for their production lines [9][11] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding future tariff policies continues to affect the confidence of automotive companies, with General Motors warning of a potential profit reduction of $4 billion to $5 billion due to tariffs [11][12] - Chinese automotive suppliers are exploring local production in the US to mitigate tariff impacts, but face challenges from USMCA regulations and the volatile political landscape [12][13] - The recent trade agreement is seen as a temporary measure, with experts warning that fundamental issues in US-China trade relations remain unresolved [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - India's recent proposal to impose retaliatory tariffs on certain US goods marks a significant shift in its trade strategy, moving from a passive approach to an active defense of its economic interests in response to US tariffs on Indian steel and aluminum products [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Trade Tensions and Background - Since 2018, the US has imposed tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum imports under the guise of "safeguard measures," which have directly impacted approximately $7.6 billion worth of Indian exports to the US, leading to an estimated tariff revenue of $1.91 billion for the US [1][2] - India's steel industry, particularly companies like Jindal Stainless in Odisha, has been significantly affected, as they rely heavily on exports to the US to maintain production capacity [1] Shift in India's Trade Strategy - Initially, India adopted a conciliatory approach, focusing on bilateral trade agreement negotiations, even reducing import tariffs on around 8,500 industrial products, including sensitive US goods [2] - However, as US tariffs escalated and procedural deficiencies in the US's actions were identified, India shifted to a more assertive stance, emphasizing the need for "substantive equivalence" in trade adjustments [2][3] Strategic Implications - India's actions at the WTO reflect a broader transition from passive adaptation to proactive utilization of international trade rules to safeguard its rights [3][4] - The country's economic growth and enhanced international standing, particularly as the G20 rotating president, have empowered it to assert its interests more vigorously [4][5] Global Trade Dynamics - India's proposal for retaliatory tariffs serves as a case study for resolving global trade disputes within the framework of multilateral rules, contrasting with the unilateral approaches often seen [5][6] - The situation underscores the necessity for the US to respect multilateral trade rules and engage in dialogue rather than relying solely on tariffs [5][6] Long-term Perspective - India's actions may signify a broader adjustment in global trade dynamics, where emerging economies increasingly influence international economic rules, promoting a more inclusive and balanced trade environment [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the consensus reached between China and the United States regarding tariffs is beneficial for global economic development [1] - The director of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Moritz Schularick, stated that the suspension of additional tariffs by both countries is positive news for Germany and the global economy [1] - Schularick emphasized that the high tariffs imposed between the world's two largest economies are unsustainable and represent a burden on the global economy [1] Group 2 - Ralph Ossa, the chief economist of the World Trade Organization, welcomed the agreement on tariffs and expressed hope for future cooperation between China and the U.S. to resolve trade conflicts [1] - Ossa also indicated that China is expected to continue playing a constructive role within the World Trade Organization in the future [1]

观察者网消息，近日，印度被曝对美态度突然变调，从积极谈判，到提议对美加征关税。 5月14日，彭博社报道称，尚不清楚印度态度突变的原因，但此消息曝光时，距中美经贸会谈刚刚取得成 果仅隔几个小时，时间点如此靠近，引发各方联想。多名专家分析认为，中国给印度"打了个样"，即一味 妥协并不能获得回报，印度意识到必须在美国面前"表现出勇气"。 自特朗普第二任期开始以来，印度政府就积极与美国就贸易问题进行接触。 今年2月，印度总理莫迪访美，成为美国总统特朗普上台后接见的第四名外国领导人。特朗普4月2日宣 布"对等关税"后，印度也成为首批与美国展开贸易谈判的国家之一。在此期间，莫迪曾竭力安抚白宫，在 从贸易到移民等一系列问题上做出让步。 今年2月，特朗普在白宫会见来访的莫迪 莫迪X账号 但据媒体13日披露，印度此前致信世贸组织，指责美国征收25%钢铝关税是贸易保障措施，对印度价值76 亿美元的出口造成了影响，预计将产生19.1亿美元的关税。作为回应，印度拟提高部分美国商品的关税。 同时，有知情印度官员告诉彭博社，与美国的贸易谈判进展顺利，双方有希望在7月初（特朗普"对等关 税"生效日）之前达成一项临时协议。 更重要的是，上述 ...