Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is not expected to lower interest rates prematurely in September, as there are no compelling factors to warrant such a move [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The commitment to a predetermined policy path is deemed a foolish mistake [1] - The ongoing risks of rising inflation necessitate a high level of vigilance [1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - Trade agreements are viewed as positive news that can help reduce uncertainty [1] - A significant shock to the labor market could compel the ECB to take action [1]

不确定性结束，将为欧股带来舒缓式反弹，汽车、能源、奢侈品等行业将成为最大受益者。但随着细节和行业关 税谈判持续，欧股未来几周料将波动。 据央视新闻，当地时间27日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国已与欧盟达成15%税率的关税协议。特朗普表示，欧盟 将比此前增加对美国投资6000亿美元，欧盟将购买美国军事装备，并将购买价值7500亿美元的美国能源产品。欧 盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表示，欧盟与美国双方同意实行统一的15%关税税率，包括汽车在内的各类商品将适用该 关税标准。冯德莱恩称，这些与美国的贸易协议将为市场带来稳定性。 消息宣布后，28日亚太交易时段，欧股和德国股票期货均上涨，欧元兑美元小幅走高。分析师认为，不确定性结 束，将为欧股带来舒缓式反弹，汽车、能源、奢侈品等行业将成为最大受益者。但分析师们也警示，反弹可能仅 是短暂的，且随着细节和行业关税谈判持续，欧股未来几周料将波动。 汽车、能源、奢侈品等行业将受益 瑞士私人银行CitéGestion的投资策略主管帕拉萨德（John Plassard）称，"贸易协定足以释放股市最需要的东西： 可见性。此前的关税升级风险，接下来已经不在考虑范围内，一个重大的宏观疑虑消失了。对投 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report forecasts the trends of various futures on July 28, 2025. Stock index futures are expected to oscillate strongly, while futures such as coking coal, glass, soda ash, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, alumina, industrial silicon, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, silver, nickel, rebar, crude oil, PTA, PVC, methanol, and natural rubber are expected to oscillate weakly [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 28, 2025, stock index futures are expected to oscillate strongly. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4147 and 4168 points and support levels at 4100 and 4080 points; IH2509 has resistance levels at 2817 and 2828 points and support levels at 2786 and 2771 points; IC2509 has resistance levels at 6260 and 6300 points and support levels at 6190 and 6150 points; IM2509 has resistance levels at 6663 and 6700 points and support levels at 6561 and 6521 points [2]. - **Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2509 and the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 are likely to oscillate strongly on July 28, 2025. T2509 has resistance levels at 108.32 and 108.46 yuan and support levels at 108.01 and 107.91 yuan; TL2509 has resistance levels at 118.3 and 118.6 yuan and support levels at 117.6 and 117.3 yuan [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: The gold futures main contract AU2510 is likely to oscillate weakly on July 28, 2025, with support levels at 768.6 and 766.8 yuan/gram and resistance levels at 776.8 and 778.7 yuan/gram. The silver futures main contract AG2510 is likely to oscillate weakly and test support levels at 9055 and 9008 yuan/kg, with resistance levels at 9392 and 9447 yuan/kg [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, and nickel futures are expected to oscillate weakly on July 28, 2025. For example, the copper futures main contract CU2509 will test support levels at 78500 and 78000 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 79300 and 79700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industrial and Energy Futures**: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, glass, soda ash, caustic soda, crude oil, PTA, PVC, methanol, natural rubber, and 20 - grade rubber futures are expected to oscillate weakly on July 28, 2025. For instance, the coking coal futures main contract JM2509 will test support levels at 1115 and the limit - down price of 1100.5 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1290 and 1294 yuan/ton [1][3]. 3.2 Macro - news and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: The Chinese government has taken a series of measures, including promoting free pre - school education, initiating the establishment of the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, and the release of the "Artificial Intelligence Global Governance Action Plan". From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 3436.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [9][10]. - **International News**: The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, but the European Parliament's International Trade Committee is dissatisfied with the agreement. The US June durable goods orders preliminary value decreased by 9.3% month - on - month [14][15]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - The CSRC has approved the registration of linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene monthly average price futures on the DCE. The DCE and GQEX have introduced trading limit measures for coking coal and lithium carbonate futures, which are expected to cool down the over - heated market [15][16]. - The GQEX is promoting the research and development of photovoltaic module futures, platinum, palladium futures, and lithium hydroxide futures, which are expected to be launched this year [16]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 25, 2025, the main contracts of stock index futures generally declined slightly. The four major indexes (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000) have risen for 5 consecutive weeks. The Chinese capital market has established the China Capital Market Society, and the CSRC plans to revise the "Corporate Governance Guidelines for Listed Companies" [22][24][25]. - **Bond Futures**: On July 25, 2025, the main contracts of bond futures mostly declined. The central bank carried out a large - scale reverse repurchase operation and MLF operation, with a net investment of 6018 billion yuan and 1000 billion yuan respectively [50]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On July 25, 2025, the gold futures main contract AU2510 declined slightly, and the silver futures main contract AG2510 rebounded weakly [58][63]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On July 25, 2025, base metal futures such as copper, aluminum, and zinc generally declined slightly [69][73][81]. - **Industrial and Energy Futures**: On July 25, 2025, coking coal, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, and other futures rose strongly, while crude oil futures rebounded slightly [106][107][118].

Core Points - Indonesia's diplomatic strategy between the US and China has faced significant challenges, leading to a trade agreement with the US that has sparked international trade tensions [1] - The US imposed punitive tariffs of up to 32% on Indonesian goods, which were later negotiated down to 19% after intense diplomatic discussions [3] - The trade agreement allows US goods to enter Indonesia tariff-free while Indonesian products face a 19% tariff in the US, creating an imbalanced trade environment [5] - Indonesia is required to import at least $19 billion worth of goods from the US annually, including $10 billion in energy products, which poses risks to its domestic market [6] - The Indonesian government plans to use US imports for re-export to mitigate losses, but this strategy carries significant risks, including potential impacts on local agriculture and market saturation [7] - The US government promotes the agreement as a means to access Southeast Asian markets, but this claim may overstate Indonesia's market capacity and is driven by strategic interests in nickel resources [9] - China's response includes maintaining anti-dumping duties on Indonesian steel products, signaling a strong stance against perceived discriminatory practices [12] - The trade agreement reflects a complex geopolitical struggle, with Indonesia caught between the US and China, raising concerns about its economic viability and future trade relations [12]

Group 1 - The European Union has approved a countermeasure plan to impose tariffs on US products totaling €93 billion, following a previous vote on a list worth approximately €72 billion, primarily targeting high-value industrial products such as aircraft, automobiles, and electrical equipment [2] - The Chinese government is expanding the provision of first loans and credit loans to support small farmers, aiming to enhance their self-development capabilities and increase income channels [5] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has adopted a zero-tolerance policy towards the smuggling of strategic minerals, emphasizing a strong crackdown on illegal export cases [6] Group 2 - The National Medical Insurance Bureau of China reported that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the cumulative expenditure of the medical insurance fund exceeded ¥12.13 trillion, with an annual growth rate of 9.1% [7] - The Shanghai Pudong government is promoting the synchronized research, clinical trials, application, and market launch of imported innovative drugs, aiming to facilitate the landing of globally first-launched products [12] - In Guangdong, financial policies have been implemented to support foreign trade enterprises, with nearly ¥10 billion in non-repayable renewals processed in the first half of the year [13] Group 3 - In the first half of the year, nine provinces in central and western China led the growth in import and export rates, with Qinghai achieving a remarkable increase of 57.7% [14] - Amazon has announced a personnel reduction in some teams within its cloud technology division, citing a thorough evaluation of the company's organizational and strategic direction [24] - Tesla reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for the second quarter of 2025, with revenue at $22.5 billion, a 12% year-on-year decrease, and net profit at $1.172 billion, down 16% [24]

Group 1 - International silver is currently trading above $39.02, with a recent high of $39.34 and a low of $38.77, indicating a short-term sideways trend [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates at 2% during its upcoming decision, marking the first pause in over a year as policymakers assess the impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation [4] - A trade agreement limiting U.S. tariffs on EU goods is anticipated, with a proposed 15% tariff on most EU exports to the U.S., which is lower than the previous threat of 30% but still higher than current rates [3] Group 2 - The ECB's decision is influenced by concerns that inflation may fall below the 2% target again, despite having recently achieved it, leading to a split among officials regarding future policy paths [4] - The recent international silver market analysis indicates a potential resistance at $39.50 or $39.75, with support levels at $39.10 or $38.85 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant trade agreement between the United States and Japan, highlighting Japan's commitment to invest $550 billion in the U.S. and the implications of this deal for both countries [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Details - Japan will invest $550 billion in the U.S., with 90% of the profits accruing to the U.S. [2][3] - The definition of this investment remains unclear, whether it includes only direct investments or also securities investments [4][11]. - If the investment is solely direct, it may take approximately 7 years to complete, while if it includes securities, it could take around 4 years [4][11]. Group 2: Trade Openings - Japan will open its market to imports of cars, trucks, rice, and other agricultural products from the U.S. [2][14]. - The impact on the Japanese automotive market is limited, as U.S. brands have struggled to gain market share due to localization issues rather than tariffs [14][15]. - The agreement specifies that Japan will maintain its minimum access for rice imports while increasing the proportion of U.S. rice within that quota [15][16]. Group 3: Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. will reduce the previously planned 25% tariff on Japanese goods to 15% [2][17]. - The tariff on Japanese automobiles will decrease from 27.5% to 15%, with no quantity restrictions, benefiting Japanese automakers significantly [22][25]. - The reduction in tariffs is seen as a positive development for Japan, although the overall economic impact is relatively modest given Japan's trade dynamics with the U.S. [17][22]. Group 4: Political Context - The article notes potential political changes in Japan, with speculation about the resignation of Prime Minister Ishiba and its implications for future economic policies [27][28]. - The new leadership may lean towards marginal fiscal and monetary easing, which could influence Japan's capital markets [27][28].

Core Points - The US and Japan have reached a trade agreement, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the US and opening its markets to various American products, while the US will impose a 15% tariff on Japanese imports [1][2][3] - The agreement aims to enhance supply chain cooperation and economic security between the two nations, particularly in sectors like semiconductors, steel, shipbuilding, energy, and automobiles [1][2] Trade Agreement Details - Japan will invest $550 billion in the US, with the US receiving 90% of the investment profits [1][2] - Japan will open its markets for automobiles, trucks, rice, and certain other agricultural products, while the US will impose a 15% tariff on Japanese imports, lower than the previously announced 25% [2][3] - The agreement is seen as a way for the US to reduce barriers for its products in Japan, particularly in the automotive sector [3][4] Economic Impact on Japan - The trade agreement may have short-term positive effects on Japan's stock and currency markets, but analysts warn of potential long-term negative impacts on the Japanese economy [2][5][8] - Japan's exports to the US, particularly in the automotive sector, have been declining due to US tariffs, with a 19.4% drop in export prices recorded in June [6][7] - The automotive industry is crucial for Japan's economy, contributing approximately 8% to GDP and providing over 5 million jobs [6] Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the trade agreement, the Nikkei 225 index rose by 3.51%, and the yen appreciated against the dollar [8] - Analysts suggest that the market's optimism may be short-lived, as Japan's economic fundamentals could weaken due to increased tariffs and market openings [9][10] Future Outlook - There are concerns that the trade agreement could lead to a hollowing out of Japan's domestic industries as companies may shift production closer to the US [7][9] - The potential for increased bankruptcies and economic downturns in Japan is highlighted, with projections of over 10,000 corporate bankruptcy applications in the next fiscal year [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - The trade agreement is beneficial for both the United States and Japan, as stated by Japan's Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, Yoshihiro Murata [1] Group 1 - The trade agreement aligns with the interests of both the U.S. and Japan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, stated that trade agreements represent a significant step forward for the economy [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Economic prospects will always have both upward and downward risks [1] - The impact of tariffs on the economy remains uncertain [1] - The upcoming economic outlook report will reflect the implications of the trade agreement [1]