两融规模仍有提升空间，测算2025年两融净收入贡献券商营收约10% 截至1月13日，全市场融资规模2.67万亿，占股市流通市值比重2.58%，高于2021年7月高点的2.51%，低 于2015年7月高点4.72%，当下整体融资业务规模并不过高。该行以2025年数据测算，券商两融业务利 息净收入占券商营收比重在10%左右。 看好券商ROE持续提升，市场对券商业绩增长持续性和资金端压制有预期差 三条主线：国际业务优秀且低估值的头部券商华泰证券、国泰海通、中金公司H和中信证券；大财富管 理优势突出的广发证券、东方证券H；零售优势突出、受益于海南跨境资管试点的国信证券。受益标的 同花顺。 智通财经APP获悉，开源证券发布研报称，经中国证监会批准，沪深北交易所发布通知，将投资者融资 买入证券时的融资保证金最低比例从80%提高至100%。继续看好券商板块机会，券商业绩增长持续性 和资金端压制影响两方面存在预期差，券商板块滞涨明显，继续看好居民存款迁移、股市机制重建下券 商大财富管理、投行和机构业务的持续增长。 开源证券主要观点如下： 事件 1月14日，经中国证监会批准，沪深北交易所发布通知调整融资保证金比例，将投资者融资 ...

2026年伊始，A股市场便迎来降杠杆重磅举措——融资保证金比例重回100%。这一调整背后蕴含何种 深意？作为A股历史上第四次关键的杠杆调控，其传递的监管信号值得深入解读。接下来，我们将用一 分钟厘清此次调整的来龙去脉，明晰其核心影响。大家好，我是老王。首先明确核心结论：融资保证金 比例调整是监管层实施逆周期调节的直接政策工具，市场过热时上调以降温，市场低迷时下调以提振。 此次将比例上调至100%，意味着投资者需以100万元自有资金作为保证金，方可最高融资100万元，杠 杆水平从1.25倍直接回落至1倍。 回溯A股历史，四次关键调整脉络清晰：2006年融资融券试点启动，确立50%的保证金比例底线，奠定 2倍杠杆的市场基础；2015年，为遏制当时过热的市场行情，比例从50%大幅上调至100%，构成行情的 紧急调控节点；2023年，为激活市场活力、提振投资者信心，比例从100%下调至80%，释放积极政策 信号；2026年此次再度从80%回调至100%，则明确传递出"稳字当头、防范过热风险"的监管导向。 这一比例调整绝非简单的数字变化，更传递出三大核心监管信号。信号一：政策风向实现转变，从2023 年的鼓励市场活跃， ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.334 | 102.360 | 105.655 | 105.645 | 107.930 | 107.865 | 111.27 | 111.38 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.330 | 102.356 | 105.625 | 105.605 | 107.850 | 107.775 | 111.35 | 111.48 | | | 涨跌 | 0.004 | 0.004 | 0.030 | 0.040 | 0.080 | 0.090 | -0.080 | -0.100 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.00% | ...

1 月 14 日，沪深北交易所将融资买入最低保证金比例由 80%上调至 100%， 这一调整清晰体现了监管逆周期调节的政策取向：融资是当前市场重要的增 量资金来源之一，开年来融资余额、融资交易占比持续走高，通过提高门槛 引导市场适度降杠杆。对比 2015 年类似的调整，我们认为本次调整有助于 平抑短期波动、稳定投资者预期，引导市场向节奏更健康、持续性更强的中 长期行情演化。对证券行业而言，短期两融增速或趋缓，但整体业务环境更 稳，建议关注资本实力、风控能力更强的头部券商配置机会，推荐中信 AH、 国泰海通 AH、广发 AH、中金 H。 将融资保证金比例由 80%提至 100% 证券研究报告 证券 融资保证金比例提升的信号意义 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 15 日│中国内地 动态点评 2015 年股市快速上行过程中，除场内两融外，场外配资规模失控、结构复 杂，各类高杠杆资金叠加放大波动，监管上调保证金比例更多是快速压降系 统性风险。本轮调整发生在两融杠杆整体可控的区间内，与历史高风险阶段 并不相同。截至 1 月 13 日，市场平均维持担保比例约为 288%，反映出当 前融资客户整体安全垫较厚、杠杆并未出现结 ...

Group 1: Securities Industry - The adjustment of the minimum margin requirement for margin trading from 80% to 100% by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges signals a regulatory counter-cyclical adjustment, aimed at guiding the market to reduce leverage appropriately and stabilize investor expectations [2][3] - The increase in margin requirements is expected to help smooth short-term volatility and lead the market towards a healthier and more sustainable medium to long-term trend [2] - Short-term growth in margin financing may slow down, but the overall business environment for the securities industry is expected to stabilize, with a recommendation to focus on leading brokerages with strong capital and risk control capabilities [2] Group 2: Oil and Gas/Chemicals Industry - The recent unrest in Iran due to rising prices and currency devaluation has raised concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices increasing by 6.5% and 7.6% respectively since the beginning of the month [3] - Iran is a significant supplier of urea and methanol, and prolonged conflict could disrupt natural gas supplies, leading to potential shortages in these chemicals globally [3] - Domestic companies with strong dividend yields and significant production capacities in urea and methanol are expected to benefit, with recommendations for companies like China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [3] Group 3: Macroeconomic Overview - December export figures showed a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 3.1%, while imports rose to 5.7% from 1.9% in November [4] - The trade surplus reached $114.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of $9 billion, indicating strong resilience in exports despite a slight decline in annual growth rate to 5.5% from 5.8% in 2025 [4] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The forecast for net inflows into the A-share market in 2026 is projected at 1.6 trillion yuan, driven by long-term capital and retail investor participation, compared to 1.3 trillion yuan in 2025 [5] - The report highlights the investment potential of Angel Yeast, a leading global yeast producer, with a domestic market share of 55% and a global share of 22%, indicating strong revenue growth prospects [5] Group 5: Aviation Leasing - Bank of China Aviation Leasing reported a 9 aircraft increase in its fleet size quarter-on-quarter, reaching 451 aircraft, with 16 aircraft delivered in Q4 2025 [6] - The company’s financing exceeded $4 billion for the year, reflecting improved capital expenditure and fleet expansion, with expectations for core ROE to improve to 11% in 2025 and 12% in 2026 [6] Group 6: Consumer Goods - 361 Degrees reported a 10% year-on-year growth in retail sales for both its main and children's brands in Q4 2025, maintaining a steady growth trend [7] - The company is expected to enhance shareholder returns with a projected dividend yield of 6.2% for 2026, supported by innovative products and marketing strategies [7] Group 7: Toy Industry - Blokus has expanded its IP matrix and is expected to see significant growth in 2026, driven by new product lines and international market expansion [8] - Despite a challenging traditional toy market, the company anticipates a recovery in profitability in 2026, supported by successful new product launches and regional market development [8]

本报讯 记者张弛报道 1月14日午间，经中国证监会批准，沪深北交易所发布通知调整融资保证金比 例，将投资者融资买入证券时的融资保证金最低比例从80%提高至100%。 2023年8月，沪深北交易所将融资保证金比例从100%降低至80%，融资规模和交易额稳步上升。沪 深北交易所表示，近期，融资交易明显活跃，市场流动性相对充裕。根据法定的逆周期调节安排，适度 提高融资保证金比例回归100%，有助于适当降低杠杆水平，切实保护投资者合法权益，促进市场长期 稳定健康发展。 需要说明的是，此次调整仅限于新开融资合约，调整实施前已存续的融资合约及其展期仍按照调整 前的相关规定执行。 截至1月14日午间收盘，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指日内分别上涨1.20%、1.98%、2.24%，全 市场4700余只个股上涨，全市场成交额2.25万亿元。此前，1月9日至13日，A股市场日成交额已连续三 日突破3万亿元，刷新历史最高日成交纪录。行业方面，互联网、软件、文化传媒等行业涨幅居前，AI 应用板块继续走强。 责任编辑：袁浩 ...

诚邀您拨冗赴会，与行业领袖、投研专家共话财富增长的确定性与可能性，以 AI 赋能的前瞻视野，共 启2026马年投资发展新篇！ 值此战略交汇窗口，万得基金携手大成基金，定于2026年1月21日在上海举办"万物启新，大道骥行—— 万得基金新年投资策略会"。本次闭门会议将汇聚行业顶尖智囊，深度解读宏观经济运行脉络与投研核 心逻辑，系统梳理年度资产配置最优策略，多维剖析AI产业链投资机遇与价值锚点。 席位珍稀，敬请扫码预约！ 新元启序，万象更新。2026年恰逢"十五五"规划开局之年，宏观政策锚定稳增长目标协同发力，逆周期 调节工具精准落地，产业政策向新质生产力领域倾斜；全球范围内，美联储降息周期正式开启，流动性 宽松预期升温，资本市场改革持续深化，多重机遇与市场变量交织共振，投资布局正迎来关键战略窗 口。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the financing margin ratio from 80% to 100% aims to cool down excessive leverage and maintain market stability, reflecting a policy approach of "precise regulation and smooth transition" [2][3] Group 1: Market Adjustment - The increase in the financing margin ratio is a targeted measure by regulators based on the current market conditions, focusing on reducing excessive leverage and ensuring market stability [3] - The financing margin ratio was previously lowered from 100% to 80% in September 2023 to stimulate market activity, which led to a significant increase in financing leverage from 1x to 1.25x, enhancing market liquidity [3] - As of January 13, 2026, the balance of margin financing in A-shares reached a historical high of 2.67 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.5%, with daily trading volumes exceeding 3.1 trillion yuan on multiple occasions [3] Group 2: Short-term Impact - The adjustment to the financing margin ratio means that investor leverage will decrease from 1.25x back to 1x, resulting in a significant increase in capital costs and a direct 20% reduction in new financing capacity [4] - This change is expected to limit the scale of new financing entering the market, with an estimated impact of around 130 billion yuan under neutral assumptions, particularly affecting high-volatility stocks reliant on financing [4] - The existing margin financing balance of 2.67 trillion yuan remains unaffected, indicating that the overall market risk is manageable, with the financing balance accounting for only about 2.59% of the A-share market capitalization [4] Group 3: Long-term Strategy - The adjustment is seen as a crucial step in optimizing the capital market ecosystem, promoting a shift from "leverage-driven" to "value-driven" investment, thereby improving market pricing efficiency [5] - By preemptively preventing excessive accumulation of leverage, this policy aims to mitigate systemic risks and lay a solid foundation for the long-term stable and healthy development of the capital market [5] - Historical experiences from 2015 indicate that increasing the financing margin ratio effectively controlled market leverage risks, leading to a phase of stable market operation [5]

物产中大（600704）期货宏观高级分析师周之云对期货日报记者表示，短期来看，提高融资保证金比例 可能压缩融资资金的入市规模，对市场热度较高的板块形成压制，降低市场风险。长期来看，融资保证 金比例维持在合理区间，有利于降低市场的杠杆风险，此次调整实际上是将融资保证金比例调整至2023 年8月前的水准，本质上是对市场的逆周期调节，有利于提升A股市场抗风险能力。 数据显示，截至1月13日，沪深北三市融资融券余额合计26829.92亿元，占A股流通市值的2.59%。其 中，融资余额为26653.91亿元，融券余额为176.01亿元。今年以来，A股融资融券余额较2025年年底增 长1423.10亿元。 分析人士表示，融资政策的调整旨在为市场降温，未来市场将更强调基本面与合规性。短期波动难免， 但"慢牛""长牛"格局正逐步夯实。投资者需摒弃短期博弈思维，以理性与耐心应对市场波动，共享中国 经济高质量发展的红利。 记者梳理发现，A股融资保证金比例历经多次变化。2006年8月，沪深交易所发布融资融券交易试点实 施细则，规定投资者融资买入证券时，融资保证金比例不得低于50%，即最高可达2倍杠杆；2015年11 月，沪深交易所 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved an adjustment to the margin requirement for financing transactions on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges, increasing the minimum margin ratio from 80% to 100% for new financing contracts, effective January 19 [1] Group 1 - The adjustment applies only to new financing contracts, while existing contracts will continue under the previous regulations [1] - In August 2023, the margin ratio was reduced from 100% to 80%, leading to a steady increase in financing scale and trading volume [1] - The recent increase in financing transactions indicates a relatively ample market liquidity, prompting the adjustment to help lower leverage levels and protect investors' rights [1]