马杜罗夫妇均不认罪，马杜罗还发出了自己的声音。据法庭记录，马杜罗已聘请阿桑奇的前律师巴里. 乔尔.波拉克为辩护律师。据英国广播公司(BBC)报道，检方公布的起诉书长达25页。 今日周二(1月6日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于78.24一线上方，今日开盘于76.63美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报78.65美元/盎司，上涨2.72%，最高触及78.94美元/盎司，最低下探75.84美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 "我是委内瑞拉总统，我是在加拉加斯的家中被强行控制并带走的。"当地时间5日中午，遭美国强行控 制的委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其妻子在纽约联邦法院出庭。 【最新伦敦银行情解析】 伦敦银获得强劲上行动能。金银比回落至57.00水平，为伦敦银市场提供了额外的支撑。成功测试阻力 位77.50-78.00美元将为测试下一阻力位83.50-84.00美元开辟道路。今日伦敦银下方关注75.10美元或 74.10美元支撑，上方关注78.00美元或79.30美元阻力。 美国法官要求遭美强行控制的委内瑞拉总统马杜罗于3月17日出席法庭听证会。 此外，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗被美国俘虏并押送出境后，其 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS maintains a long-term bullish outlook on gold, targeting $4,750 per ounce, but raises short-term caution due to insufficient momentum in recent price increases and heightened volatility [1][20]. Group 1: Short-term Concerns - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to the performance of silver, platinum, and palladium rather than independent bullish factors for gold itself [1][11]. - Gold's volatility has surged to levels seen at the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, diminishing its appeal as a "safe haven" asset in private investment portfolios [1][6]. - The relationship between gold and real interest rates has broken down, indicating a potential for price correction in the absence of new market stimuli [1][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current gold volatility is linked to historical data suggesting that high volatility often correlates with lower future returns [6]. - The gold-silver ratio has dropped to around 65, historically indicating weaker performance for both gold and silver in the following three months [14]. - UBS highlights that when investors aggressively pursue silver, it often signals an overheated market that requires cooling [16]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term risks, UBS believes conditions for a significant decline (over 20%) in gold prices are not present, as historical patterns show such declines are typically accompanied by decreased stock market volatility and rising credit spreads [17][20]. - Key support factors for gold's long-term bullish trend include central bank purchases, stable ETF inflows, and the undervaluation of gold mining stocks [20][22][27]. - Emerging market central banks, which hold only 7-11% of their reserves in gold, are expected to continue buying during price corrections, providing support for gold prices [20].

统计1997年以来的五次重要下行周期，金银比的平均降幅约为44%。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，目前的比例 约为67，而若按平均回落水平测算，比例有望向55甚至更低的区间迈进。 即使保守估计金价维持在4400美元附近，金银比回归均值也将直接把银价推向80美元。Mhmarkets迈汇 认为，一旦金价向5000美元发起冲击，且比例因避险情绪超调至40，白银的目标价位将有望锁定在125 美元。 实物市场的结构性短缺正在全球主要交易所之间上演。当前上海交易所的白银库存处于近10年的低点， 而伦敦与纽约的库存也在频繁的套利流转中显得捉襟见肘。 12月31日，白银市场在2025年岁末的表现堪称惊艳，价格稳步运行在每盎司76美元上方，年内涨幅更是 录得惊人的2.5倍。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，尽管价格的高速飙升引发了部分投资者对回撤的担忧，但从长 线逻辑来看，当前的突破可能仅是更大规模牛市的序幕。 由于白银成功站上50美元这一横跨45年的关键阻力位，原有的技术天花板已转化为坚实的结构性地板。 Mhmarkets迈汇认为，市场正处于全新的上升维度，金银比的回归逻辑将成为理解未来溢价空间的核 心。 12月31日，白银市场在20 ...

如何看待贵金属的波动？20251231 摘要 本轮贵金属牛市中，白银表现出更高的波动性和加速上涨形态，白银 ETF 波动率指数接近 2011 年峰值。黄金表现相对稳健，波动率抬升幅 度较小，未创新高。金银呈现不同的弹性特征。 当前金银比已收敛至 55-57 附近，回到 2014 年以前水平，处于过去 20 多年中性偏低位置。与前几轮不同，本轮金银比收敛并未伴随全球制 造业 PMI 指数显著反弹，而是处于企稳状态。 白银已连续 5 年出现供应缺口，交易所显性库存自 2020 年以来显著下 行。四大交易所白银行库存约为 4.28 万吨，超六成被白银 ETF 锁定， 可流通库存极低，放大了多逼空风险。 COMEX 交割需求大增，12 月交割量创历史第五位，多逼空题材被炒作。 伦敦市场面临低库存压力，租赁利率维持高位。国内交易所库存降至近 十年最低水平，各市场多逼空题材发酵。 伦敦白银现货市场处于低库存状态，高频租赁利率数据表明紧张局面加 剧。国内白银现货较境外升水幅度超过 1,000 元每千克，可能吸引境外 白银回流国内，加剧海外现货偏紧格局。 白银行情背后存在供应缺口问题。根据世界白银协会的数据，截至 2024 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market experienced significant declines, with various metals such as silver, platinum, and palladium seeing sharp drops in prices [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 29, precious metals faced a severe downturn, with COMEX gold futures dropping by 4.45%, COMEX silver futures plummeting by 7.2%, spot gold falling over 4%, spot silver crashing over 9%, spot palladium declining over 15%, and spot platinum decreasing over 14% [5]. - The following day, December 30, the market saw a general rebound, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.2%, spot gold increasing by 0.17%, COMEX silver futures gaining 7.88%, spot silver up by 5.66%, and NYMEX platinum futures rising by 4% [5]. Group 2: Future Outlook - UBS warned that the rapid increase in precious metal prices is largely due to insufficient market liquidity, indicating a potential for a swift decline [5]. - Analysts from Capital Economics stated that the current prices of precious metals have risen to levels that are difficult to justify based on fundamentals, predicting that silver prices may drop to around $42 per ounce by the end of next year [5]. - Huolong Futures noted that silver is currently outperforming gold, with greater short-term volatility and amplitude. They cautioned that the ongoing bullish trend in silver may be entering a "frenzy stage," advising ordinary investors against hasty participation [5].

分析人士： 芝商所上调保证金曾导致银价大跌 由于近期贵金属和工业金属期货价格快速上涨，大幅波动风险加剧，美国芝商所集团宣布全线上调包括 金、银、钯金、锂等在内的金属期货交易保证金。新规将于当地时间本周一收盘后生效，其中，黄金期 货保证金上调10%，白银期货上调约13.6%，铂金上调约23%。 大幅上调保证金将显著提升市场投机交易成本，部分投资者赶在新规生效前获利了结，引发国际金属期 货价格在29日出现多轮下跌。当天亚洲交易尾盘时段，国际贵金属价格跌幅再度扩大，国际金价跌破每 盎司4500美元整数关口。 截至北京时间29日15时35分， 分析人士指出，CME提高保证金的操作让人们回想到了历史上的相似情形。 但也有分析人士认为和以往投机驱动的周期不同，支撑此轮白银涨势的不仅因为白银是贵金属里相对可 负担的一种投资品，还因为它在工业领域具有不可替代性，就连马斯克也对此发声。近期，马斯克在旗 下社交平台X上针对银价上涨的现象发文称：这可不好，白银被用于许多工业生产环节。 纽商所明年2月交割的黄金期价报每盎司4497.9美元，跌幅为1.20%； 3月交割的白银期价报每盎司75.930美元，跌幅为1.65%； 1月交割的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surpassed $76 per ounce, doubling in value this year, leading to investor anxiety about a potential market reversal. However, historical analysis of the gold-silver ratio suggests that silver may still have significant upside potential, with supply constraints expected to trigger price surges by 2026 [1]. Group 1: Price Projections - Silver has broken its historical high of $50 per ounce, marking a significant milestone after 45 years, with $50 now seen as a new support level [1]. - If the gold-silver ratio drops from its recent peak of approximately 105 to around 59, silver could reach about $67 per ounce, assuming gold prices stabilize at $4,000 [4]. - In a bullish scenario where gold reaches $5,000 and the gold-silver ratio falls to 45, silver prices could soar to $111 per ounce [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Current silver supply is critically low, with Shanghai's inventory at a 10-year low and London facing tight supplies, creating a precarious situation for the market [6]. - The shifting of silver inventories between major markets like New York and London does not increase the total supply but highlights localized shortages, particularly in China, which is a major consumer of industrial silver [6]. - The potential for a significant price spike exists if industrial users face delivery issues, leading to a scenario where cash settlements may not suffice, causing prices to surge dramatically [6]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - The phenomenon of "fear of missing out" (FOMO) is likely to drive individual investors towards silver as they seek alternatives to high gold prices, perceiving silver as a more affordable option [7]. - As investors recognize the high gold prices, they may turn to silver, which appears relatively cheap, further fueling demand and potentially driving prices higher [7]. - The ongoing high gold-silver ratio may prompt investors to enter the silver market, anticipating continued upward movement in silver prices even if gold prices stabilize [7].

Core Viewpoint - Silver has experienced a significant price surge, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 160%, outpacing gold's 67% rise, driven by its dual financial and industrial properties [2][6][14]. Price Movement - As of December 30, the spot price of silver in London was reported at $74.66 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 3.47%. The price had previously surged by 10.47% on December 26 and reached a peak of $83.97 per ounce on December 29 before a sharp decline of 9.08% [2][12]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Silver's industrial demand is growing, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, where the market for silver paste is expected to increase from approximately 12.1 billion yuan in 2020 to 44.7 billion yuan by 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate of 38.6% [6][7]. - The global silver supply is projected to face a structural deficit, with a forecasted shortfall of 117.6 million ounces by 2025, indicating a persistent supply-demand imbalance [9][12]. Industrial Applications - Silver is utilized across various industries, including electrification, electronics, and medical applications, with industrial usage accounting for 50%-60% of total silver demand, compared to only 10% for gold [7][9]. Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to a correction in the gold-silver ratio and speculative trading driven by geopolitical uncertainties and excess liquidity in the market [12][14]. - The current gold-silver ratio is approximately 59, down from over 100 earlier in the year, indicating a potential normalization of silver's pricing relative to gold [13][14]. Volatility and Trading Risks - Silver exhibits higher volatility compared to gold, influenced by its dual role as a monetary metal and an industrial commodity. This volatility presents both opportunities for higher returns and increased risks for investors [15][17]. - Recent adjustments in margin requirements for silver trading have led to a temporary cooling of speculative activities in the market [15][16].

12月29日周一开盘，现货白银高开后大跳水，盘中跌近5%，此前一度涨近6%；现货黄金失守4500美元 关口，盘中跌超1%。 国内品牌金饰价格同步走低，据了解，周生生足金饰品报价目前1406元/克，较27日1412元/克跌6元/ 克。 据央视财经，由于近期贵金属和工业金属期货价格快速上涨，大幅波动风险加剧，美国芝商所集团宣布 全线上调包括金、银、钯金、锂等在内的金属期货交易保证金。新规将于当地时间本周一收盘后生效， 其中，黄金期货保证金上调10%，白银期货上调约13.6%，铂金上调约23%。 大幅上调保证金将显著提升市场投机交易成本，部分投资者赶在新规生效前获利了结，引发国际金属期 货价格在29日出现多轮下跌。当天亚洲交易尾盘时段，国际贵金属价格跌幅再度扩大，国际金价跌破每 盎司4500美元整数关口。 截至北京时间29日15时35分， 分析人士： 芝商所上调保证金曾导致银价大跌 分析人士指出，CME提高保证金的操作让人们回想到了历史上的相似情形。 | < W | 伦敦金现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | 4488.730 | ...

Group 1 - The recent surge in silver prices has attracted significant attention, with prices reaching over $84 per ounce before a sharp decline to nearly $70, marking one of the largest price reversals in silver's history. Year-to-date, silver prices have increased by approximately 140% [1] - The increase in silver prices is primarily driven by a surge in interest from Chinese investors, with a notable rise in trading volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, pushing premiums to historical highs [2] - The only pure silver fund in China has recently stopped accepting new clients due to the extreme volatility and speculative frenzy, despite previous warnings and tightened trading rules [5] Group 2 - Physical-backed silver ETFs have seen a significant inflow, with holdings increasing by over 150 million ounces this year, contributing to market supply constraints [6] - In December alone, silver prices rose by over 25%, potentially marking the largest monthly increase since 2020, with technical indicators suggesting that prices may have risen too quickly [9] - Some exchanges are raising margin requirements for silver futures contracts to manage risk amid increased volatility, which may lead to reduced trading activity [13] Group 3 - There has been a notable increase in the purchase of call options for silver futures and related ETFs, indicating a speculative trend, with the total open interest in call options for the iShares Silver Trust reaching its highest level since 2021 [14] - Global silver availability is constrained, with much of it remaining in New York warehouses due to trade-related tariffs, leading to higher borrowing costs in the London market [17] - Overall demand for precious metals has surged this year, driven by a weaker dollar and geopolitical factors, with silver often moving in tandem with gold, which has seen a significant rebound [21]